Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

The first cut is the deepest: Repeated interactions of co-authorship and academic productivity in Nobel laureate teams

Despite much in-depth investigation of factors influencing the co-authorship evolution in various scientific fields, our knowledge about how efficiency or creativity is linked to the longevity of collaborative relationships remains very limited. We explore what Nobel laureates’ co-authorship patterns reveal about the nature of scientific collaborations looking at the intensity and success of scientific collaborations across fields and across laureates’ collaborative lifecycles in physics, chemistry, and physiology/medicine. We find that more collaboration with the same researcher is actually no better for advancing creativity: publications produced early in a sequence of repeated collaborations with a given coauthor tend to be published better and cited more than papers that come later in the collaboration with the same coauthor. Our results indicate that scientific collaboration involves conceptual complementarities that may erode over a sequence of repeated interactions.

Young driver perceptions of police traffic enforcement and self reported driving offences

Purpose Road policing is a key method used to improve driver compliance with road laws. However, we have a very limited understanding of the perceptions of young drivers regarding police enforcement of road laws. This paper addresses this gap. Design/Methodology/Approach Within this study 238 young drivers from Queensland, Australia, aged 17-24 years (M = 18, SD = 1.54), with a provisional (intermediate) driver’s licence completed an online survey regarding their perceptions of police enforcement and their driver thrill seeking tendencies. This study considered whether these factors influenced self-reported transient (e.g., travelling speed) and fixed (e.g., blood alcohol concentration) road violations by the young drivers. Findings The results indicate that being detected by police for a traffic offence, and the frequency with which they display P-plates on their vehicle to indicate their licence status, are associated with both self-reported transient and fixed rule violations. Licence type, police avoidance behaviours and driver thrill seeking affected transient rule violations only, while perceptions of police enforcement affected fixed rule violations only. Practical implications This study suggests that police enforcement of young driver violations of traffic laws may not be as effective as expected and that we need to improve the way in which police enforce road laws for young novice drivers. Originality/value: This paper identifies that perceptions of police enforcement by young drivers does not influence all types of road offences.

Predicting crashes using traffic offences. A meta-analysis that examines potential bias between self-report and archival data

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.

Repeated random sampling in year 5

As an extension to an activity introducing Year 5 students to the practice of statistics, the software TinkerPlots made it possible to collect repeated random samples from a finite population to informally explore students’ capacity to begin reasoning with a distribution of sample statistics. This article provides background for the sampling process and reports on the success of students in making predictions for the population from the collection of simulated samples and in explaining their strategies. The activity provided an application of the numeracy skill of using percentages, the numerical summary of the data, rather than graphing data in the analysis of samples to make decisions on a statistical question. About 70% of students made what were considered at least moderately good predictions of the population percentages for five yes–no questions, and the correlation between predictions and explanations was 0.78.

Microcracking in concrete under repeated compressive loads

The nature of microcracks formed in concrete under repeated uniaxial compressive loads are investigated by experiments on prismatic specimens. The distribution and orientation of cracks formed are studied by optical microscopic techniques. The basic failure mechanism of concrete at the phenomenological and internal structural level are examined by the formation and propagation of cracks. The tests have indicated that local tensile failures constitute the dominant mode of fracture, with the bond cracks forming the major percentage of the total magnitude of cracks. Significant differences were observed in the proportion of bond cracks formed under static and repeated load systems.

Characterization of species-specific repeated DNA sequences from B. nigra

The construction and characterization of two genome-specific recombinant DNA clones from B. nigra are described. Southern analysis showed that the two clones belong to a dispersed repeat family. They differ from each other in their length, distribution and sequence, though the average GC content is nearly the same (45%). These B genome-specific repeats have been used to analyse the phylogenetic relationships between cultivated and wild species of the family Brassicaceae.

Repeated drop weight impacts and post-impact ILSS tests on glass-epoxy composite

E glass epoxy laminates of thicknesses in the range 2-5 mm were subjected to repeated impacts. For each thickness the number of hits to cause tup penetration was determined and the value of this number was higher the larger the thickness of the laminate tested. The C-scan, before and after impact, was done to obtain information regarding flaw distribution. Short beam shear test samples were made from locations at fixed distances from impact point and tested. The samples closer to the zone of impact showed lower strength values. Scanning fractography revealed shear deformation features for these samples and brittle fracture features for the region near the zone of impact.

Study of fracture features in foam bearing glass epoxy composites subjected to repeated impacts

The paper reports the failure features observed in low mass repeatedly (pendulum) impacted glass epoxy composites with and without the mid section having either 2-layers or 3-layers of flexible foam. Features such as through width and inclined cracks as well as adhering of foam observed in the experiments are explained. The significance of the foam material in modifying the impact response of the composite is stressed.

The role of surface texture on friction and transfer layer formation during repeated sliding of Al-4Mg against steel

In the present investigation, various kinds of textures, namely, unidirectional, 8-ground, and random were attained on the die surfaces. Roughness of the textures was varied using different grits of emery papers or polishing powders. Then pins made of Al-4Mg alloys were slid against steel plates at various numbers of cycles, namely, 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 using pin-on-plate reciprocating sliding tester. Tests were conducted at a sliding velocity of 2 minis in ambient conditions under both dry and lubricated conditions. A constant normal load of 35 N was applied in the tests. The morphologies of the worn surfaces of the pins and the formation of transfer layer on the counter surfaces were observed using a scanning electron microscope. Surface roughness parameters of the plates were measured using an optical profilometer. In the experiments, it was observed that the coefficient of friction and formation of the transfer layer depend on the die surface textures under both dry and lubricated conditions. More specifically, the coefficient of friction decreases for unidirectional and 8-ground surfaces while for random surfaces it increases with number of cycles. However, the coefficient of friction is highest for the sliding perpendicular to the unidirectional textures and least for the random textures under both dry and lubricated conditions. The difference in friction values between these two surfaces decreases with increasing number of cycles. The variation in the coefficient of friction under both dry and lubrication conditions is attributed to the change in texture of the surfaces during sliding. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of a quantum particle on a lattice under repeated projective measurements

We consider a quantum particle, moving on a lattice with a tight-binding Hamiltonian, which is subjected to measurements to detect its arrival at a particular chosen set of sites. The projective measurements are made at regular time intervals tau, and we consider the evolution of the wave function until the time a detection occurs. We study the probabilities of its first detection at some time and, conversely, the probability of it not being detected (i.e., surviving) up to that time. We propose a general perturbative approach for understanding the dynamics which maps the evolution operator, which consists of unitary transformations followed by projections, to one described by a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. For some examples of a particle moving on one-and two-dimensional lattices with one or more detection sites, we use this approach to find exact expressions for the survival probability and find excellent agreement with direct numerical results. A mean-field model with hopping between all pairs of sites and detection at one site is solved exactly. For the one-and two-dimensional systems, the survival probability is shown to have a power-law decay with time, where the power depends on the initial position of the particle. Finally, we show an interesting and nontrivial connection between the dynamics of the particle in our model and the evolution of a particle under a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian with a large absorbing potential at some sites.

Strengthening and weakening by repeated dynamic impact in microcrystals and nanocrystals

Experiments on micrograined (mg) and nanocrystalline (nc) Ni revealed strengthening and weakening following repeated dynamic impact. The strengthening in mg-Ni arises from intragranular dislocations without a significant change in grain size, whereas the weakening in nc-Ni is due to concurrent grain growth. The strength of mg and nc-Ni samples after deformation settles at similar to 900 MPa, with differing contributions from intragranular dislocations and grain sizes. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.