The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Modelagem estrutural física de semigrábens ortogonais e oblíquos à distenção regional: influência da trama do embasamento e comparação com analógicos no nordeste brasileiro

The physical structural modeling tool is being increasingly used in geology to provide information about the evolutionary stages (nucleation, growth) and geometry of geological structures at various scales. During the simulations of extensional tectonics, modeling provides a better understanding of fault geometry and evolution of the tectonic-stratigraphic architecture of rift basins. In this study a sandbox type apparatus was used to study the nucleation and development of basins influenced by previous structures within the basement, variably oriented as regards to the main extensional axis. Two types of experiments were conducted in order to: (i) simulate the individual (independent) development of half-grabens oriented orthogonal or oblique to the extension direction; (ii) simulate the simultaneous development of such half-grabens, orthogonal or oblique to the extension direction. In both cases the same materials (sand mixed with gypsum) were used and the same boundary conditions were maintained. The results were compared with a natural analogue represented by the Rio do Peixe Basin (one of the eocretaceous interior basins of Northeast Brazil). The obtained models allowed to observe the development of segmented border faults with listric geometry, often forming relay ramps, and the development of inner basins faults that affect only the basal strata, like the ones observed in the seismic sections of the natural analogue. The results confirm the importance of basement tectonic heritage in the geometry of rift depocenters

A grande colisão pré-cambriana do sudeste brasileiro e a estruturação regional

This paper presents a review on the geotectonic framework of the Southeastern Brazil and neighborhoods, and its importance in the regional geologic evolution, which was exposed as a main conference at the XI Symposium of Southeast Geology (São Pedro, SP, 2009). Although the geologic history dates back to the Archean, and Paleo to Mesoproterozoic processes related to the evolution of the Columbia and Rodinia supercontinents occurred, it was in the Neoproterozoic that the most important structural features developed due to collisional tectonics. The collisions began in the Brasiliano I (900-700 Ma), but mainly developed during the Brasiliano II (670-530 Ma) and ended in the Brasiliano III (580-490 Ma), resulting the orogenic systems of Mantiqueira and Tocantins. The final consolidation resulted in Gondwana, around 460 My in the part which correspond to the South America Platform. The structural features represent an important heritage that controlled much the Phanerozic geologic and tectonic processes: the formation of the Paraná Basin in the Ordovician-Jurassic, the South Atlantian reactivation (active magmatism and Paraná LIP, rifting, morphogenesis and the Atlantic opening), and the Neogene-Quaternary intraplate discrete neotectonism.

Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goias State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

From Craton to Rift: Empirically Based Ground-Truth Criteria for Local Events Recorded on Regional Networks

Region-specific empirically based ground-truth (EBGT) criteria used to estimate the epicentral-location accuracy of seismic events have been developed for the Main Ethiopian Rift and the Tibetan plateau. Explosions recorded during the Ethiopia-Afar Geoscientific Lithospheric Experiment (EAGLE), the International Deep Profiling of Tibet, and the Himalaya (INDEPTH III) experiment provided the necessary GT0 reference events. In each case, the local crustal structure is well known and handpicked arrival times were available, facilitating the establishment of the location accuracy criteria through the stochastic forward modeling of arrival times for epicentral locations. In the vicinity of the Main Ethiopian Rift, a seismic event is required to be recorded on at least 8 stations within the local Pg/Pn crossover distance and to yield a network-quality metric of less than 0.43 in order to be classified as EBGT5(95%) (GT5 with 95% confidence). These criteria were subsequently used to identify 10 new GT5 events with magnitudes greater than 2.1 recorded on the Ethiopian Broadband Seismic Experiment (EBSE) network and 24 events with magnitudes greater than 2.4 recorded on the EAGLE broadband network. The criteria for the Tibetan plateau are similar to the Ethiopia criteria, yet slightly less restrictive as the network-quality metric needs to be less than 0.45. Twenty-seven seismic events with magnitudes greater than 2.5 recorded on the INDEPTH III network were identified as GT5 based on the derived criteria. When considered in conjunction with criteria developed previously for the Kaapvaal craton in southern Africa, it is apparent that increasing restrictions on the network-quality metric mirror increases in the complexity of geologic structure from craton to plateau to rift. Accession Number: WOS:000322569200012

Mesoproterozoic Deposition, Regional Metamorphism and Deformation in North-Central New Mexico: Evidence from Metamorphic Monazite and Detrital Zircon Geochronology in the Picuris Mountains

Detrital zircon and metamorphic monazite ages from the Picuris Mountains, north central New Mexico, were used to confirm the depositional age of the Marquenas Formation, to document the depositional age of the Vadito Group, and to constrain the timing of metamorphism and deformation in the region. Detrital zircon 207Pb/206Pb ages were obtained with the LA-MC-ICPMS from quartzites collected from the type locality of the Marquenas Formation exposed at Cerro de las Marquenas, and from the lower Vadito Group in the southern and eastern Picuris Mountains. The Marquenas Formation sample yields 113 concordant ages including a Mesoproterozoic age population with four grains ca. 1470 Ga, a broad Paleoproterozoic age peak at 1695 Ma, and minor Archean age populations. Data confirm recent findings of Mesoproterozoic detrital zircons reported by Jones et al. (2011), and show that the Marquenas Formation is the youngest lithostratigraphic unit in the Picuris Mountains. Paleoproterozoic and Archean detrital grains in the Marquenas Formation are likely derived from local recycled Vadito Group rocks and ca. 1.75 Ga plutonic complexes, and ca. 1.46 detrital zircons were most likely derived from exposed Mesoproterozoic plutons south of the Picuris. Ninety-five concordant grains from each of two Vadito Group quartzites yield relatively identical unimodal Paleoproterozoic age distributions, with peaks at 1713-1707 Ma. Eastern exposures of quartzite mapped as Marquenas Formation yield detrital zircon age patterns and metamorphic mineral assemblages that are nearly identical to the Vadito Group. On this basis, I tentatively assigned the easternmost quartzite to the Vadito Group. Zircon grains in all samples show low U/Th ratios, welldeveloped concentric zoning, and no evidence of metamorphic overgrowth events, consistent with an igneous origin. North-directed paleocurrent indicators, such as tangential crossbeds (Soegaard & Eriksson, 1986) and other primary sedimentary structures, are preserved in the Marquenas Formation quartzite. Together with pebble-toboulder metaconglomerates in the Marquenas, these observations suggest that this formation was deposited in a braided alluvial plain environment in response to syntectonic uplift to the south of the Picuris Mountains. Metamorphic monazite from two Vadito Group quartzite samples were analyzed with an electron microprobe (EMP). Elemental compositional variation with respect to Th and Y define core and rim domains in monazite grains, and show lower concentrations of Th (1.46-1.52 wt%) and Y (0.67 wt%) in the cores, and higher concentrations of Th (1.98 wt%) and Y (1.06 wt%) in the rims. Results show that Mesoproterozoic core and rim ages from five grains overlap within uncertainty, ranging from 1395-1469 Ma with an average age of 1444 Ma. This 1.44 Ga average age is the dominant timing of metamorphic monazite growth in the region, and represents the timing of metamorphism experienced by the region. An older 1630 Ma core observed in sample CD10-12 may be interpreted as a result of low temperature metamorphism in lower Vadito Group rocks due to heat from ca. 1.65 Ga granitic intrusions. Core ages ca. 1.5 Ga are likely due to a mixing age of two different age domains during analyses. Confirmed sedimentation at 1.48-1.45 Ga and documented mid-crustal regional metamorphism in northern New Mexico ca. 1.44-1.40 are likely associated with a Mesoproterozoic orogenic event.

Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Central Andes: Temperature versus humidity control A case study from the eastern Bolivian Andes (17°S) and regional synthesis

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation

The performance of reanalysis-driven Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) in reproducing the present climate over the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment domain for the 1989–2008 period has been assessed in comparison with several observation-based datasets. The model reproduces satisfactorily the near-surface temperature and precipitation characteristics over most part of North America. Coastal and mountainous zones remain problematic: a cold bias (2–6 °C) prevails over Rocky Mountains in summertime and all year-round over Mexico; winter precipitation in mountainous coastal regions is overestimated. The precipitation patterns related to the North American Monsoon are well reproduced, except on its northern limit. The spatial and temporal structure of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet is well reproduced by the model; however, the night-time precipitation maximum in the jet area is underestimated. The performance of CRCM5 was assessed against earlier CRCM versions and other RCMs. CRCM5 is shown to have been substantially improved compared to CRCM3 and CRCM4 in terms of seasonal mean statistics, and to be comparable to other modern RCMs.

Opportunities and limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension of sustainable regional and landscape development in protected areas

With regard to protected areas, the concepts of ecosystem services and the cultural dimension of sustainable development (SD) are increasingly under debate. This contribution analyses the role of cultural aspects within the ecosystem services framework using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification as a reference. The limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension are highlighted. Potential ways of strengthening the position of cultural values within this framework are discussed.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.