Ciclos internacionais de negócios : uma análise de mudança de regime markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos

Este trabalho tem por objetivo promover uma análise dos ciclos econômicos de Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos, dando ênfase às mudanças de regimes ocorridas ao longo das flutuações experimentadas por esses países. Estudos recentes sobre ciclos têm argumentado em favor de ciclos internacionais de negócios. Nesse sentido, em especial, o trabalho visa testar a hipótese de um ciclo comum que afetaria ambos os países. A metodologia utilizada é a dos modelos MS-VAR – Markov switching vector autoregressions. Especificações univariadas são estimadas para o período de 1900 a 2000 e os resultados comparados aos fatos estilizados de cada país. Posteriormente um modelo multivariado é formulado para abrigar a hipótese de um ciclo conjunto, visto como mudanças comuns no processo estocástico do crescimento desses países. Os resultados sugerem que as evidências em favor desse ciclo comum são pouco robustas. As correlações contemporâneas estimadas apresentam valores bastante modestos. Em particular, existem significativas diferenças nos ciclos de Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos, cada um deles com características próprias e comportamentos singulares.

Improving mutual fund market timing measures: a markov switching approach

Market timing performance of mutual funds is usually evaluated with linear models with dummy variables which allow for the beta coefficient of CAPM to vary across two regimes: bullish and bearish market excess returns. Managers, however, use their predictions of the state of nature to deÞne whether to carry low or high beta portfolios instead of the observed ones. Our approach here is to take this into account and model market timing as a switching regime in a way similar to Hamilton s Markov-switching GNP model. We then build a measure of market timing success and apply it to simulated and real world data.

Price discovery using a regime-sensitive cointegration approach

This work proposes a method to examine variations in the cointegration relation between preferred and common stocks in the Brazilian stock market via Markovian regime switches. It aims on contributing for future works in "pairs trading" and, more specifically, to price discovery, given that, conditional on the state, the system is assumed stationary. This implies there exists a (conditional) moving average representation from which measures of "information share" (IS) could be extracted. For identification purposes, the Markov error correction model is estimated within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Inference and capability of detecting regime changes are shown using a Montecarlo experiment. I also highlight the necessity of modeling financial effects of high frequency data for reliable inference.

Superfícies eletromagnéticas de microondas com controle do regime de trapped-mode

Neste trabalho foram investigadas (FSSs) com ressonância de alto fator de qualidade (fator Q) e independência da polarização para uma onda plana com incidência normal. Estas FSSs são baseadas em um arranjo planar de metalizações sobre um substrato. Um alto fator Q é obtido por meio da excitação do trapped-mode e a independência da polarização, por meio da alta simetria rotacional dos elementos que compõe o arranjo. Para o projeto de FSSs com controle do regime de trapped-mode, foram utilizados substratos feitos de materiais com possibilidade de controle de suas propriedades elétricas ou magnéticas (ferrite magnetizada ou silício ativado oticamente). O arranjo de dois anéis concêntricos em um substrato dielétrico analisado neste trabalho apresenta uma ressonância de trapped-mode com fator Q em torno de 12 e transmitância máxima de 70 %. Com a utilização de um substrato de ferrite magnetizada nesse arranjo, é mostrado que é possível deslocar a frequência de ressonância do trappedmode em torno de 20 %, sem degradação significativa da ressonância de transmisão. Com o emprego de um substrato de silício ativado opticamente, é demonstrado que é possível realizar um chaveamento praticamente completo da banda de transmissão desse arranjo. Para realização das simulações computacionais foram utilizados o método dos momentos no domínio espectral (SDMM) e os programas comerciais Ansoft Designer 5 Planar EM e CST 2009.

Volatility changes caused by the trading system:a Markov switching application

An expanding literature exists to suggest that the trading mechanism can influence the volatility of security returns. This study adds to this literature by examining the impact that the introduction of SETS, on the London Stock Exchange, had on the volatility of security returns. Using a Markov switching regime change model security volatility is categorized as being in a regime of either high or low volatility. It is shown that prior to the introduction of SETS securities tended to be in a low volatility regime. At the time SETS was introduced securities moved to a high volatility regime. This suggests that volatility increased when SETS was introduced.

Bandpass switching in a nonlinear optical loop mirror

We demonstrate bandpass nonlinear switching, using a novel device configuration based on a nonlinear-optical loop mirror and an in-fiber Bragg grating. Self-switching is demonstrated in the soliton regime by use of an asymmetrically arranged in-fiber Bragg grating as a wavelength-selective element. In addition, we adapt the configuration to perform efficient two-wavelength switching.

Soliton switching using cascaded nonlinear-optical loop mirrors

We demonstrate multiple-peaked switching in a nonlinear-optical loop mirror and present an experimental investigation of device cascading in the soliton regime based on a sequence of two independent nonlinear-optical loop mirrors. Cascading leads to an enhanced switching response with sharper switching edges, flattened peaks, and increased interpeak extinction ratios. We observe that pulses emerging from the cascade retain the sech2 temporal profile of a soliton with minimal degradation in the spectral characteristics.

Bandpass switching based on a nonlinear optical loop mirror and an in-fibre grating reflector

Nonlinear optical loop mirror (NOLM) requires breaking the loop symmetry to enable the counter propagating pulses to acquire a differential π phase shift. This is achieved with either an asymmetric fused fibre coupler at the input or by the inclusion of an asymmetrically located gain or loss element within the loop. By introducing a frequency selective loss element, nonlinear switching may be confined to a narrow band of wavelengths or multiple wavelengths. This configuration may have applications in time-wavelength demultiplexing. We demonstrate this technique of bandpass switching in the soliton regime using a fibre-Bragg grating reflector as the wavelength dependent loss.

Bandpass switching in a nonlinear optical loop mirror

A novel device configuration is used to demonstrate wavelength-confined, a bandpass, switching in a nonlinear-optical loop mirror (WOLM). Demonstrated is a self-switching in the soliton regime using a partially reflecting Bragg grating as a wavelength-dependent loss element. Two wavelength operation in which a signal is switched through the use of cross phase modulation, are demonstrated. Observed is the operation of the device confined to wavelengths defined by the grating reflection band.

Soliton switching using cascaded nonlinear-optical loop mirrors

We demonstrate multiple-peaked switching in a nonlinear-optical loop mirror and present an experimental investigation of device cascading in the soliton regime based on a sequence of two independent nonlinear-optical loop mirrors. Cascading leads to an enhanced switching response with sharper switching edges, flattened peaks, and increased interpeak extinction ratios. We observe that pulses emerging from the cascade retain the sech2 temporal profile of a soliton with minimal degradation in the spectral characteristics.

The function of property in creating an effective legal regime for trade in environmental offsets

Market-based environmental regulation is becoming increasingly common within international and national frameworks. Environmental offset and trading regimes are part of the market-based instrument revolution. This paper proposes that environmental market mechanisms could be used to introduce an ethic of land holder responsibility. In order for market based regimes to attract sufficient levels of stakeholder engagement, participants within such scheme require an incentive to participate and furthermore need to feel a sense of security about investing in such processes. A sense of security is often associated with property based interests. This paper explores the property related issues connected with environmental offset and trading scheme initiatives. Relevant property-related considerations include land tenure considerations, public versus private management of land choices, characteristics and powers associated with property interests, theories defining property and the recognition of legal proprietal interests. The Biodiversity Banking Scheme in New South Wales is then examined as a case study followed by a critique on the role of environmental markets.

Power network in the loop : subsystem testing using a switching amplifier

“Hardware in the Loop” (HIL) testing is widely used in the automotive industry. The sophisticated electronic control units used for vehicle control are usually tested and evaluated using HIL-simulations. The HIL increases the degree of realistic testing of any system. Moreover, it helps in designing the structure and control of the system under test so that it works effectively in the situations that will be encountered in the system. Due to the size and the complexity of interaction within a power network, most research is based on pure simulation. To validate the performance of physical generator or protection system, most testing is constrained to very simple power network. This research, however, examines a method to test power system hardware within a complex virtual environment using the concept of the HIL. The HIL testing for electronic control units and power systems protection device can be easily performed at signal level. But performance of power systems equipments, such as distributed generation systems can not be evaluated at signal level using HIL testing. The HIL testing for power systems equipments is termed here as ‘Power Network in the Loop’ (PNIL). PNIL testing can only be performed at power level and requires a power amplifier that can amplify the simulation signal to the power level. A power network is divided in two parts. One part represents the Power Network Under Test (PNUT) and the other part represents the rest of the complex network. The complex network is simulated in real time simulator (RTS) while the PNUT is connected to the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) based power amplifier. Two way interaction between the simulator and amplifier is performed using analog to digital (A/D) and digital to analog (D/A) converters. The power amplifier amplifies the current or voltage signal of simulator to the power level and establishes the power level interaction between RTS and PNUT. In the first part of this thesis, design and control of a VSC based power amplifier that can amplify a broadband voltage signal is presented. A new Hybrid Discontinuous Control method is proposed for the amplifier. This amplifier can be used for several power systems applications. In the first part of the thesis, use of this amplifier in DSTATCOM and UPS applications are presented. In the later part of this thesis the solution of network in the loop testing with the help of this amplifier is reported. The experimental setup for PNIL testing is built in the laboratory of Queensland University of Technology and the feasibility of PNIL testing has been evaluated using the experimental studies. In the last section of this thesis a universal load with power regenerative capability is designed. This universal load is used to test the DG system using PNIL concepts. This thesis is composed of published/submitted papers that form the chapters in this dissertation. Each paper has been published or submitted during the period of candidature. Chapter 1 integrates all the papers to provide a coherent view of wide bandwidth switching amplifier and its used in different power systems applications specially for the solution of power systems testing using PNIL.

A database ATP simulated waveforms of shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers on motor circuits

This paper presents a database ATP (Alternative Transient Program) simulated waveforms for shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers in motor circuits following interruption of the starting current. The targeted objective is to provide multiple reignition simulated data for diagnostic and prognostic algorithms development, but also to help ATP users with practical study cases and component data compilation for shunt reactor switching. This method can be easily applied with different data for the different dielectric curves of circuit-breakers and networks. This paper presents design details, discusses some of the available cases and the advantages of such simulated data.