A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Single-hole GPR reflection imaging of solute transport in a granitic aquifer

Identifying transport pathways in fractured rock is extremely challenging as flow is often organized in a few fractures that occupy a very small portion of the rock volume. We demonstrate that saline tracer experiments combined with single-hole ground penetrating radar (GPR) reflection imaging can be used to monitor saline tracer movement within mm-aperture fractures. A dipole tracer test was performed in a granitic aquifer by injecting a saline solution in a known fracture, while repeatedly acquiring single-hole GPR sections in the pumping borehole located 6 m away. The final depth-migrated difference sections make it possible to identify consistent temporal changes over a 30 m depth interval at locations corresponding to fractures previously imaged in GPR sections acquired under natural flow and tracer-free conditions. The experiment allows determining the dominant flow paths of the injected tracer and the velocity (0.4-0.7 m/min) of the tracer front. Citation: Dorn, C., N. Linde, T. Le Borgne, O. Bour, and L. Baron (2011), Single-hole GPR reflection imaging of solute transport in a granitic aquifer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08401, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047152.

Estimation of the correlation structure of crustal velocity heterogeneity from seismic reflection data

Numerous sources of evidence point to the fact that heterogeneity within the Earth's deep crystalline crust is complex and hence may be best described through stochastic rather than deterministic approaches. As seismic reflection imaging arguably offers the best means of sampling deep crustal rocks in situ, much interest has been expressed in using such data to characterize the stochastic nature of crustal heterogeneity. Previous work on this problem has shown that the spatial statistics of seismic reflection data are indeed related to those of the underlying heterogeneous seismic velocity distribution. As of yet, however, the nature of this relationship has remained elusive due to the fact that most of the work was either strictly empirical or based on incorrect methodological approaches. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on the assumption of weak scattering, that allows us to quantitatively link the second-order statistics of a 2-D seismic velocity distribution with those of the corresponding processed and depth-migrated seismic reflection image. We then perform a sensitivity study in order to investigate what information regarding the stochastic model parameters describing crustal velocity heterogeneity might potentially be recovered from the statistics of a seismic reflection image using this model. Finally, we present a Monte Carlo inversion strategy to estimate these parameters and we show examples of its application at two different source frequencies and using two different sets of prior information. Our results indicate that the inverse problem is inherently non-unique and that many different combinations of the vertical and lateral correlation lengths describing the velocity heterogeneity can yield seismic images with the same 2-D autocorrelation structure. The ratio of all of these possible combinations of vertical and lateral correlation lengths, however, remains roughly constant which indicates that, without additional prior information, the aspect ratio is the only parameter describing the stochastic seismic velocity structure that can be reliably recovered.

Geostatistical inversion of seismic and GPR reflection images: what can we actually resolve?

Estimation of the spatial statistics of subsurface velocity heterogeneity from surface-based geophysical reflection survey data is a problem of significant interest in seismic and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) research. A method to effectively address this problem has been recently presented, but our knowledge regarding the resolution of the estimated parameters is still inadequate. Here we examine this issue using an analytical approach that is based on the realistic assumption that the subsurface velocity structure can be characterized as a band-limited scale-invariant medium. Our work importantly confirms recent numerical findings that the inversion of seismic or GPR reflection data for the geostatistical properties of the probed subsurface region is sensitive to the aspect ratio of the velocity heterogeneity and to the decay of its power spectrum, but not to the individual values of the horizontal and vertical correlation lengths.

Constraining 3-D electrical resistance tomography with GPR reflection data forimproved aquifer characterization

Surface-based ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistance tomography (ERT) are common tools for aquifer characterization, because both methods provide data that are sensitive to hydrogeologically relevant quantities. To retrieve bulk subsurface properties at high resolution, we suggest incorporating structural information derived from GPR reflection data when inverting surface ERT data. This reduces resolution limitations, which might hinder quantitative interpretations. Surface-based GPR reflection and ERT data have been recorded on an exposed gravel bar within a restored section of a previously channelized river in northeastern Switzerland to characterize an underlying gravel aquifer. The GPR reflection data acquired over an area of 240×40 m map the aquifer's thickness and two internal sub-horizontal regions with different depositional patterns. The interface between these two regions and the boundary of the aquifer with then underlying clay are incorporated in an unstructured ERT mesh. Subsequent inversions are performed without applying smoothness constraints across these boundaries. Inversion models obtained by using these structural constraints contain subtle resistivity variations within the aquifer that are hardly visible in standard inversion models as a result of strong vertical smearing in the latter. In the upper aquifer region, with high GPR coherency and horizontal layering, the resistivity is moderately high (N300 Ωm). We suggest that this region consists of sediments that were rearranged during more than a century of channelized flow. In the lower low coherency region, the GPR image reveals fluvial features (e.g., foresets) and generally more heterogeneous deposits. In this region, the resistivity is lower (~200 Ωm), which we attribute to increased amounts of fines in some of the well-sorted fluvial deposits. We also find elongated conductive anomalies that correspond to the location of river embankments that were removed in 2002.

Prevention of Reflection Cracking in Asphalt Overlays with Structofors, Petromate, and Cerex, HR-158, 1977

This report presents construction methods and results using three reinforcing fabrics to prevent reflection cracking in an asphalt overlay. The original highway in the rural area was Portland Cement Concrete 20 feet wide. It was widened by adding 2 feet of asphaltic concrete 10 inches deep on each side prior to resurfacing. Data are presented for the widening joint and transverse cracks in the rural area and for the random cracking in the urban area.

Asphalt Stabilization (Asphadur)/Reduction of Reflection Cracks (Monsanto Bidim Synthetic Fabric), HR-511, 1979

ASPHALT STABILIZATION (ASPHADUR): Asphadur (now called 3M Additive 5990) was incorporated into asphaltic concrete on a lane delineation, AC resurfacing, project in Council Bluffs. The experimental feature was included in the eastbound lanes of Interstate 480, beginning at the bridge over the Missouri River and ending at the bridge over North 41st Street. The project was constructed in October 1979. The objective of the project was to investigate the manufacturer's claims of improved strength, stability and durability of an asphalt mix. REDUCTION OF REFLECTION CRACKS (MONSANTO BIDIM SYNTHETIC FABRIC): A lane delineation project was constructed in the eastbound lanes of Interstate 480 in Council Bluffs. A synthetic fabric, Monsanto Bidim C-28, was placed between the portland cement concrete and two inches of Type A asphaltic concrete resurfacing containing Asphadur. The experimental feature began at the bridge over the Missouri River and ended at the bridge over North 41st Street. The project was constructed in October 1979. The objective of this experimental project was to determine the effectiveness of the fabric in reducing reflective cracking in an asphaltic concrete overlay.

Fetal testosterone (2D:4D) as predictor of cognitive reflection

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) is a test introduced by S. Frederick (2005) Cognitive reflection and decision making, J Econ Perspect 19(4): 25-42. The task is designed to measure the tendency to override an intuitive response that is incorrect and to engage in further reflection that leads to the correct response. The consistent sex differences in CRT performance may suggest a role for gonadal hormones, particularly testosterone. A now widely studied putative marker for fetal testosterone is the second-to-fourth digit ratio (2D:4D). This paper tests to what extent 2D:4D, as a proxy for prenatal exposure to testosterone, can predict CRT scores in a sample of 623 students. After controlling for sex, we observe that a lower 2D:4D (reflecting a higher exposure to testosterone) is significantly associated with a higher number of correct answers. The result holds for both hands? 2D:4Ds. In addition, the effect appears to be sharper for females than for males. We also control for patience and math proficiency, which are significantly related to performance in the CRT. But the effect of 2D:4D on performance in CRT is not reduced with these controls, implying that these variables are not mediating the relationship between digit ratio and CRT.

P-wave velocities of samples from the Penninic of the western Alps along NFP20-west seismic-reflection profiles

Using the transit pulse method, we have determined compressional wave velocities of rocks from various geological units belonging to the Penninic zone along the NFP20-West profiles of the Swiss western Alps. The velocities have been measured at confining pressures up to 400 MPa, along three orthogonal axes defined by the macrostructure of the rocks. The samples analysed show a degree of metamorphism ranging from greenschist to eclogite facies. This collection includes schists, dolomites, gneisses and ophiolitic rocks. The mean velocities range from 5.9 km/s for a quartzitic calcschist to 7.9 km/s for an eclogitic metagabbro. The velocity anisotropy is as high as 20 %. The range of acoustic impedance is wide, from 15 to 27 10(6) kg/m2s. From these measurements, normal incident reflection coefficients for likely rock assemblages within and between geological units were estimated in order to interpret zone of the strong reflections recorded along the seismic profiles. Reflection coefficients as high as 0.17 could be determined.