Decadal Variabilities and Trends in the Southwest Atlantic in a model forced with NCEP Reanalysis from 1960 to 2012

Analysis of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis show changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere, with a strengthening and poleward displacement of the westerlies. Because the wind is one of the main sources of the ocean's kinetic energy, a numerical experiment with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was forced with monthly means of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis products to investigate the effects of the changes in the wind on the ocean circulation in a geographical domain defined by 98W – 114E; 65S – 60N. The results show good agreement with other models and with available satellite data. In the western sector of the South Atlantic there are several indications of changes such as a poleward displacement of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and positive trends in temperature and salinity of the southwestern region of the subtropical gyre.

EPITHET: Positive Result After Reanalysis Using Baseline Diffusion-Weighted Imaging/Perfusion-Weighted Imaging Co-Registration

the Echoplanar Imaging Thrombolytic Evaluation Trial (EPITHET) was a prospective, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase II trial of alteplase between 3 and 6 hours after stroke onset. The primary outcome of infarct growth attenuation on MRI with alteplase in mismatch patients was negative when mismatch volumes were assessed volumetrically, without coregistration, which underestimates mismatch volumes. We hypothesized that assessing the extent of mismatch by coregistration of perfusion and diffusion MRI maps may more accurately allow the effects of alteplase vs placebo to be evaluated.

Historical weather extremes in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Meteorological or climatological extremes are rare and hence studying them requires long meteorological data sets. Moreover, for addressing the underlying atmospheric processes, detailed three-dimensional data are desired. Until recently the two requirements were incompatible as long meteorological series were only available for a few locations, whereas detailed 3-dimensional data sets such as reanalyses were limited to the past few decades. In 2011, the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) was released, a 6-hourly global atmospheric data set covering the past 140 years, thus combining the two properties. The collection of short papers in this volume contains case studies of individual extreme events in the 20CR data set. In this overview paper we introduce the first six cases and summarise some common findings. All of the events are represented in 20CR in a physically consistent way, allowing further meteorological interpretations and process studies. Also, for most of the events, the magnitudes are underestimated in the ensemble mean. Possible causes are addressed. For interpreting extrema it may be necessary to address individual ensemble members. Also, the density of observations underlying 20CR should be considered. Finally, we point to problems in wind speeds over the Arctic and the northern North Pacific in 20CR prior to the 1950s.

Reanalysis of the Hamburg Storm Surge of 1962

In February 1962, Hamburg experienced its most catastrophic storm surge event of the 20th century. This paper analyses the event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset. Responsible for the major flood was a strong low pressure system centred over Scandinavia that was associated with strong north-westerly winds towards the German North Sea coast – the ideal storm surge situation for the Elbe estuary. A comparison of the 20CR dataset with observational data proves the applicability of the reanalysis data for this extreme event.

Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation

The performance of reanalysis-driven Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) in reproducing the present climate over the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment domain for the 1989–2008 period has been assessed in comparison with several observation-based datasets. The model reproduces satisfactorily the near-surface temperature and precipitation characteristics over most part of North America. Coastal and mountainous zones remain problematic: a cold bias (2–6 °C) prevails over Rocky Mountains in summertime and all year-round over Mexico; winter precipitation in mountainous coastal regions is overestimated. The precipitation patterns related to the North American Monsoon are well reproduced, except on its northern limit. The spatial and temporal structure of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet is well reproduced by the model; however, the night-time precipitation maximum in the jet area is underestimated. The performance of CRCM5 was assessed against earlier CRCM versions and other RCMs. CRCM5 is shown to have been substantially improved compared to CRCM3 and CRCM4 in terms of seasonal mean statistics, and to be comparable to other modern RCMs.

Role of diuretics, blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study

OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.

The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observations: characteristics and intercomparison

In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv) occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The latter give valuable insight even to diurnal variation of ozone in the polar winter stratosphere.

ERA-interim reanalysis debiased at FLUXNET sites

(preliminary) Exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere are monitored by eddy covariance technique at the ecosystem level. Currently, the FLUXNET database contains more than 500 sites registered and up to 250 of them sharing data (Free Fair Use dataset). Many modelling groups use the FLUXNET dataset for evaluating ecosystem model's performances but it requires uninterrupted time series for the meteorological variables used as input. Because original in-situ data often contain gaps, from very short (few hours) up to relatively long (some months), we develop a new and robust method for filling the gaps in meteorological data measured at site level. Our approach has the benefit of making use of continuous data available globally (ERA-interim) and high temporal resolution spanning from 1989 to today. These data are however not measured at site level and for this reason a method to downscale and correct the ERA-interim data is needed. We apply this method on the level 4 data (L4) from the LaThuile collection, freely available after registration under a Fair-Use policy. The performances of the developed method vary across sites and are also function of the meteorological variable. On average overall sites, the bias correction leads to cancel from 10% to 36% of the initial mismatch between in-situ and ERA-interim data, depending of the meteorological variable considered. In comparison to the internal variability of the in-situ data, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the in-situ data and the un-biased ERA-I data remains relatively large (on average overall sites, from 27% to 76% of the standard deviation of in-situ data, depending of the meteorological variable considered). The performance of the method remains low for the Wind Speed field, in particular regarding its capacity to conserve a standard deviation similar to the one measured at FLUXNET stations.