Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

A Mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles

Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

Utility Analysis for Multiple Selection Devices and Multiple Outcomes

Traditional utility analysis only calculates the value of a given selection procedure over random selection. This assumption is not only an inaccurate representation of staffing policy but also leads to overestimates of a device’s value. This paper presents a more accurate method for computing the validity of a selection battery for when there are multiple selection devices and multiple criteria. Application of the method is illustrated using previous utility analysis work and an actual case of administrative assistants with eight predictors and nine criteria. A final example also is provided that includes these advancements as well as other researchers’ advances in a combined utility model. Results reveal that accounting for multiple criteria and outcomes dramatically reduces the utility estimates of implementing new selection devices.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Practical client puzzles in the standard model

Client puzzles are cryptographic problems that are neither easy nor hard to solve. Most puzzles are based on either number theoretic or hash inversions problems. Hash-based puzzles are very efficient but so far have been shown secure only in the random oracle model; number theoretic puzzles, while secure in the standard model, tend to be inefficient. In this paper, we solve the problem of constucting cryptographic puzzles that are secure int he standard model and are very efficient. We present an efficient number theoretic puzzle that satisfies the puzzle security definition of Chen et al. (ASIACRYPT 2009). To prove the security of our puzzle, we introduce a new variant of the interval discrete logarithm assumption which may be of independent interest, and show this new problem to be hard under reasonable assumptions. Our experimental results show that, for 512-bit modulus, the solution verification time of our proposed puzzle can be up to 50x and 89x faster than the Karame-Capkum puzzle and the Rivest et al.'s time-lock puzzle respectively. In particular, the solution verification tiem of our puzzle is only 1.4x slower than that of Chen et al.'s efficient hash based puzzle.

Modelling client puzzles and denial-of-service resistant protocols

Denial-of-service (DoS) attacks are a growing concern to networked services like the Internet. In recent years, major Internet e-commerce and government sites have been disabled due to various DoS attacks. A common form of DoS attack is a resource depletion attack, in which an attacker tries to overload the server's resources, such as memory or computational power, rendering the server unable to service honest clients. A promising way to deal with this problem is for a defending server to identify and segregate malicious traffic as earlier as possible. Client puzzles, also known as proofs of work, have been shown to be a promising tool to thwart DoS attacks in network protocols, particularly in authentication protocols. In this thesis, we design efficient client puzzles and propose a stronger security model to analyse client puzzles. We revisit a few key establishment protocols to analyse their DoS resilient properties and strengthen them using existing and novel techniques. Our contributions in the thesis are manifold. We propose an efficient client puzzle that enjoys its security in the standard model under new computational assumptions. Assuming the presence of powerful DoS attackers, we find a weakness in the most recent security model proposed to analyse client puzzles and this study leads us to introduce a better security model for analysing client puzzles. We demonstrate the utility of our new security definitions by including two hash based stronger client puzzles. We also show that using stronger client puzzles any protocol can be converted into a provably secure DoS resilient key exchange protocol. In other contributions, we analyse DoS resilient properties of network protocols such as Just Fast Keying (JFK) and Transport Layer Security (TLS). In the JFK protocol, we identify a new DoS attack by applying Meadows' cost based framework to analyse DoS resilient properties. We also prove that the original security claim of JFK does not hold. Then we combine an existing technique to reduce the server cost and prove that the new variant of JFK achieves perfect forward secrecy (the property not achieved by original JFK protocol) and secure under the original security assumptions of JFK. Finally, we introduce a novel cost shifting technique which reduces the computation cost of the server significantly and employ the technique in the most important network protocol, TLS, to analyse the security of the resultant protocol. We also observe that the cost shifting technique can be incorporated in any Diffine{Hellman based key exchange protocol to reduce the Diffie{Hellman exponential cost of a party by one multiplication and one addition.

Segmentation of cone-beam CT using a hidden Markov random field with informative priors

Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk. The voxel labels are estimated using iterated conditional modes. The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom. The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2\%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.

Short signature without random oracles and the SDH assumption in bilinear groups

We describe a short signature scheme that is strongly existentially unforgeable under an adaptive chosen message attack in the standard security model. Our construction works in groups equipped with an efficient bilinear map, or, more generally, an algorithm for the Decision Diffie-Hellman problem. The security of our scheme depends on a new intractability assumption we call Strong Diffie-Hellman (SDH), by analogy to the Strong RSA assumption with which it shares many properties. Signature generation in our system is fast and the resulting signatures are as short as DSA signatures for comparable security. We give a tight reduction proving that our scheme is secure in any group in which the SDH assumption holds, without relying on the random oracle model.

Cost efficiency of Japanese steam power generation companies : a Bayesian comparison of random and fixed frontier models

This study analyses and compares the cost efficiency of Japanese steam power generation companies using the fixed and random Bayesian frontier models. We show that it is essential to account for heterogeneity in modelling the performance of energy companies. Results from the model estimation also indicate that restricting CO2 emissions can lead to a decrease in total cost. The study finally discusses the efficiency variations between the energy companies under analysis, and elaborates on the managerial and policy implications of the results.

Calculating the Fickian diffusivity for a lattice-based random walk with agents and obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Random walk models are often used to interpret experimental observations of the motion of biological cells and molecules. A key aim in applying a random walk model to mimic an in vitro experiment is to estimate the Fickian diffusivity (or Fickian diffusion coefficient),D. However, many in vivo experiments are complicated by the fact that the motion of cells and molecules is hindered by the presence of obstacles. Crowded transport processes have been modeled using repeated stochastic simulations in which a motile agent undergoes a random walk on a lattice that is populated by immobile obstacles. Early studies considered the most straightforward case in which the motile agent and the obstacles are the same size. More recent studies considered stochastic random walk simulations describing the motion of an agent through an environment populated by obstacles of different shapes and sizes. Here, we build on previous simulation studies by analyzing a general class of lattice-based random walk models with agents and obstacles of various shapes and sizes. Our analysis provides exact calculations of the Fickian diffusivity, allowing us to draw conclusions about the role of the size, shape and density of the obstacles, as well as examining the role of the size and shape of the motile agent. Since our analysis is exact, we calculateDdirectly without the need for random walk simulations. In summary, we find that the shape, size and density of obstacles has a major influence on the exact Fickian diffusivity. Furthermore, our results indicate that the difference in diffusivity for symmetric and asymmetric obstacles is significant.

Molecular Dynamics Investigation of Structure and Transport in the K2O-2SiO2 System Using a Partial Charge Based Model Potential

Potassium disilicate glass and melt have been investigated by using a new partial charge based potential model in which nonbridging oxygens are differentiated from bridging oxygens by their charges. The model reproduces the structural data pertaining to the coordination polyhedra around potassium and the various bond angle distributions excellently. The dynamics of the glass has been studied by using space and time correlation functions. It is found that K ions migrate by a diffusive mechanism in the melt and by hops below the glass transition temperature. They are also found to migrate largely through nonbridging oxygenrich sites in the silicate matrix, thus providing support to the predictions of the modified random network model.