Streamflow response of a small forested catchment on different timescales

The hydrological response of a catchment to rainfall on different timescales is result of a complex system involving a range of physical processes which may operate simultaneously and have different spatial and temporal influences. This paper presents the analysis of streamflow response of a small humid-temperate catchment (Aixola, 4.8 km(2)) in the Basque Country on different timescales and discusses the role of the controlling factors. Firstly, daily time series analysis was used to establish a hypothesis on the general functioning of the catchment through the relationship between precipitation and discharge on an annual and multiannual scale (2003-2008). Second, rainfall-runoff relationships and relationships among several hydrological variables, including catchment antecedent conditions, were explored at the event scale (222 events) to check and improve the hypothesis. Finally, the evolution of electrical conductivity (EC) during some of the monitored storm events (28 events) was examined to identify the time origin of waters. Quick response of the catchment to almost all the rainfall events as well as a considerable regulation capacity was deduced from the correlation and spectral analyses. These results agree with runoff event scale data analysis; however, the event analysis revealed the non-linearity of the system, as antecedent conditions play a significant role in this catchment. Further, analysis at the event scale made possible to clarify factors controlling (precipitation, precipitation intensity and initial discharge) the different aspects of the runoff response (runoff coefficient and discharge increase) for this catchment. Finally, the evolution of EC of the waters enabled the time origin (event or pre-event waters) of the quickflow to be established; specifically, the conductivity showed that pre-event waters usually represent a high percentage of the total discharge during runoff peaks. The importance of soil waters in the catchment is being studied more deeply.

Modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Bengalas, Nova Friburgo, RJ, utilizando o potencial de geotecnologias na definição de áreas de risco de inundação.

A presente pesquisa concentra-se no estudo hidrológico utilizando o potencial das geotecnologias na modelagem do escoamento na bacia do rio Bengalas, cujo rio principal de mesmo nome, corta o município de Nova Friburgo, RJ, no sentido Sul-Norte. Esse município, um dos mais importantes da região serrana, sofre frequentemente com inundações e deslizamentos, onde, dados históricos e acontecimentos recentes mostram que a ocupação inadequada de encostas e calhas dos rios são as áreas destacada e negativamente afetadas. A metodologia tem suporte no uso de um SIG, extraindo informações, que por sua vez, serão entrada de dados na fase de modelagem, e reforçando a apresentação dos resultados das simulações através de mapas. Ela está divida basicamente em três etapas: "SIG", "Modelagem" e "Suporte à Tomada de Decisão/Simulação". Esse primeiro estudo permitiu compor um banco de dados geográfico com as características fisiográficas da bacia; a seleção criteriosa de uma modelagem matemática e encadeamento de seus parâmetros com os componentes do ciclo hidrológico; realizar a calibração do modelo de transformação chuva-vazão, Soil Conservation Service (CN); e simular a passagem dos volumes gerados pela precipitação efetiva na calha do rio Bengalas, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar as áreas suscetíveis a inundações na porção central da cidade de Nova Friburgo. Modelagem dessa natureza vem sendo empregada, principalmente, no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, onde a tomada de decisões embasada nos resultados de simulações computacionais, contribuem para evitar prejuízos materiais e financeiros, e ainda, perdas de vidas humanas em áreas de risco, neste caso, aquelas suscetíveis a inundações. Analisando os resultados encontrados temos que a área suscetível à inundação para uma chuva com tempo de recorrência de 50 anos, o mais crítico estudado, seja de aproximadamente 1,0 km, distribuídos nos seus 8,5km na região central de Nova Friburgo-RJ, sendo está, ora delimitada, prioritariamente edificada.

Planejamento de recursos hídricos de áreas rurais degradadas: aplicação do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica experimental na região Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

A degradação ambiental do Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro tem se intensificado nas últimas décadas devido às práticas agrícolas não preservacionistas. Esta situação, que decorre do uso inadequado do solo, tem implicado em mudanças na oferta hídrica em grau variável nos municípios da região com prejuízos econômicos nas atividades dos pequenos e médios proprietários rurais e na qualidade de vida. A abordagem para enfrentar problemas deste tipo depende da participação efetiva das instâncias de governo e dos órgãos responsáveis pela gestão dos recursos hídricos. No âmbito da hidrologia os modelos hidrológicos com base no uso e ocupação do solo são ferramentas que podem auxiliar com ótimo custo e benefício a geração de informações em bacias hidrográficas, instrumentadas ou não. Os modelos são úteis ao planejamento e à tomada de decisão por possibilitarem a previsão de vazões e simulação de cenários sobre o uso do solo e qualidade da água. Neste sentido, o presente estudo pretende dar sua contribuição ao avaliar a adequabilidade do modelo SWAT simular o processo chuva-vazão na microbacia experimental de Santa Maria e Cambiocó, com 13,5 km2, localizada na região hidrográfica do rio Muriaé, afluente do rio Paraíba do Sul. O SWAT tem sido empregado em bacias agrícolas nos EUA, na Europa e, atualmente, na China, sudeste asiático e Irã, entre outros países, e na última década maior inserção no meio acadêmico brasileiro. A versão 2005 do modelo foi utilizada por meio da sua interface SIG para simular as vazões médias diárias com base na precipitação medida no intervalo de 15 minutos no período de 2005/2006. As vazões simuladas foram comparadas com as vazões observadas no exutório da microbacia. Foram testadas as ferramentas de análise de sensibilidade e autocalibração. O método de calibração manual foi usado para o ajuste por tentativa e erro. Os parâmetros ajustados corresponderam ao CN2 e ESCO. Os valores obtidos na calibração para os coeficientes estatísticos R2, NSE, PBIAS e RSR foram 0,80, 0,80, 7,02 e 0,45, respectivamente, indicando escore muito bom, o que foi confirmado pela inspeção dos hidrogramas. As saídas validadas para período diferente da calibração forneceram para os mesmos coeficientes os valores 0,84, 0,80, 25,92 e 0,44. Os dois primeiros, com escore muito bom. O valor de PBIAS, no limite do satisfatório, e RSR, muito bom. O desempenho permitiu concluir que a simulação com o SWAT foi adequada. Em relação às pesquisas que têm sido realizadas no Brasil os valores obtidos para os indicadores foram semelhantes, indicando a capacidade do modelo para novos estudos nesta microbacia que considerem os usos consuntivos e cenários de uso do solo.

Relação chuva-vazão nos telhados verdes modulares sob chuva simulada induzida.

A perda de vegetação natural e o aumento das superfícies impermeáveis decorrentes da expansão urbana têm mostrado que os tradicionais sistemas de drenagem urbana são insuficientes e pouco adaptáveis às alterações de uso do solo. Uma das consequências disso é o aumento da velocidade do escoamento superficial (runoff) que favorece as inundações, com enormes prejuízos materiais e ambientais. As inundações ocorrem geralmente quando ha ocorrência de chuvas de alta intensidade. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar a contribuição dos telhados verdes modulares submetidos a chuvas de alta intensidade, 155mm/h com duração de 7,0 minutos para retenção e retardo do escoamento superficial. Além disso, foram determinados valores para parâmetros de modelos clássicos chuva-vazão: Método Racional (C) e CN (SCS), que poderá, futuramente, servir de modelagem hidrológica dos impactos da adoção de telhados verdes no controle das enchentes urbanas. A metodologia adotada foi de natureza experimental e envolveu a construção de bancadas com inclinação regulável para suporte dos módulos experimentais e um sistema para indução de chuvas com intensidade controlada. Foram estudados três modelos de sistema modular para telhado verde que permitem o armazenamento de água no fundo da bandeja que compõe os módulos, sendo 2 de 17,0 L (M-17 e F-17) e 1 de 4,0 L (M-4), nas condições de solo seco e solo úmido. Em cada módulo vegetado foram utilizadas 3 espécies de vegetação: Portulaca oleracea (Onze horas), Callisia repens (Dinheiro em penca) e Apnia cordfolia (Rosinha do sol). Os resultados demonstraram que os volumes retidos, calculados a partir da observação do runoff, nas diferentes situações, foram coerentes entre si e com dados relatados na literatura. Os módulos vegetados produziram os melhores resultados com solo seco e os piores resultados com solo úmido. O percentual médio de retenção, considerando todos os tipos de módulos, foi de 58% do volume total de água induzida, com retardo médio de 12 minutos no runoff. Os valores médios de C (Método Racional) foram 0,4, 0,48, 0,36, para os módulos M-17, M-4 e F-17, respectivamente e os de CN (SCS) foram 93, 95, 93, para os mesmos módulos. Conforme esperado, os maiores valores de CN foram para solos úmidos, mantendo a relação que quanto menor o volume retido, maior o runoff e o CN. O módulo F-17 foi o que apresentou melhor desempenho em todos os aspectos (redução do escoamento, retenção hídrica e retardo do runoff). Este estudo demonstra a boa contribuição que esse tipo de sistema pode proporcionar na retenção e retardo do escoamento superficial, mesmo para chuvas intensas de curta duração, principalmente após período de curta estiagem, situação comum em locais de clima tropical. Futuros estudos deverão avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas modulares de telhados verdes com outras características e intensidades de chuvas. A adoção de telhados verdes deve ser cautelosa, sobretudo pela carga extra que esse tipo de sistema representa.

Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力定量评价模型

降雨径流的调控利用是缓解黄土高原干旱缺水与控制水土流失的有效手段,研究区域降雨径流调控利用潜力的定量评价对黄土高原降雨径流合理利用的宏观决策与规划设计具有重要意义。以黄土高原为例,将可以调控利用的最大降雨径流量作为资源化潜力值,从宏观尺度上,系统分析了影响该潜力的各个因素,确定出黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力的各项评价指标,利用GIS技术,建立了降雨径流各个影响因素的专题图层,提取出各个影响因素专题信息。在上述基础上,引入人工神经网络建模方法,建立了黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力BP网络模型,并利用实际资料对网络模型进行了训练和预测,取得了较好的结果。评价模型可供黄土高原降雨径流调控利用及其生态与环境保护工作参考。

径流曲线法在黄土区小流域地表径流预测中的初步应用

径流曲线法是目前国际上预测无径流观测资料地区降水地表产流的主要模型,由于气候、水文及下垫面的差异,在黄土高原地区的应用受到限制。利用黄土高原地区3个小流域的303场降雨径流资料,针对黄土高原降雨地表径流特点优化模型中的初损率λ,并提出降雨强度修正函数,将降雨强度因子引入径流曲线法。优化后的模型效率E达到0.812,实测径流深与预测径流深的线性回归决定系数R2达到0.822。改进后的SCS-CN模型可用于黄土区小流域降雨地表产流预报,对黄土高原无资料地区侵蚀产流预报、指导水土保持工程配置和设计具有重要的理论和工程实践意义。

黄土区不同土地利用方式下径流量的神经网络模拟

基于黄土坡面降雨—径流关系的复杂性且非线性特性,引用3层前馈型BP网络模型,对不同土地利用方式(草灌地、刈割地、翻耕地)径流量进行模拟,以植被盖度、降雨强度、坡度、土壤前期含水率和土壤容重5个因子作为输入层变量,次降雨下径流量作为输出层变量,并利用野外人工模拟降雨试验所得到不同降雨强度下各类土地利用径流小区的径流量实测资料,对网络进行模拟训练和预测,取得了较好的结果,平均误差不超过10%。研究结果表明,与传统回归统计方法进行了误差比较,该模型的预测精度更高。

森林流域单元水文模型的构建与应用

目前全球缺水、水污染、洪涝灾害以及水土流失仍然非常严重，尤其在我国北方地区。流域水文模型可用来进行不同需水管理的情景分析，为解决我国水问题提供科学依据。分布式水文模型是流域水文模型的发展方向，具有显著特点：1）应用前景广泛，不仅可以模拟流域水文过程，还可以协助模拟泥沙或污染物的运移过程，为水利工程设计、水土保持、环境保护等领域提供技术支持；2）能够预测流域土地利用或气候变化下的流域水文响应过程变化，为管理部门提供决策支持；3）模型所需要的参数全部具有物理意义，可通过实际测量确定，适合模拟实测系列较短或是无观测流域的水文过程；4）对于目前国际水文界的前沿问题—水文尺度转换提供了一种有效的解决途径。 然而分布式水文模型还不完善，如1)真实性问题。对一些水文过程和边界条件还不确定。2)尺度转换问题。目前很少考虑尺度对参数有效性的影响。3)检验问题。还无法判断对有些难以测量的水文状态变量的模拟正确与否。4)计算时间和数据存储的问题。有些分布式水文模型虽然具有很强的水文物理基础和完善的模型结构，但是计算时间过长和(或)数据存储过大，难以应用。上述问题的核心就是对分布式水文模型的核心—单元水文模型的研究不够，需要为进一步完善单元水文模型进行研究。 本文采用饱和入渗理论、Saint-Venant方程、Richards方程、Penman-Monteith方程等等构建了以有限差分法求解的适用于森林流域的单元水文模型，并通过实验室模拟试验和坡地径流场资料进行了验证，主要结论为： 通过不同坡度和不同雨强下的室内坡面产汇流实验模拟，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流和壤中流过程与实测过程基本一致，峰现时间、径流历时、峰值流量、出流总量模拟值与实测值的相对误差均较小，基本小于10%。模型的模拟精度较高，实用性较强，为深入研究壤中流机制和改进流域降雨-径流模型提供了理论依据。 通过坡地径流观测场实测资料的验证，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流过程精度较高，累计流量的精度更高于小时过程的精度，离差系数、效率系数、确定系数均较理想，具有应用价值，有助于改善分布式水文模型在森林流域的模拟效果。

嵌套森林流域分布式降雨一径流模型及尺度转换

分布式水文模型和水文过程尺度转换是当前国际水文学研究的热点和难点，然而，在国内这方面研究尚处起步阶段。本文选择四川崛江上游一级支流杂谷脑河森林流域，首先对流域内杂谷脑、桑坪两水文站1962-2002年月径流实测序列进行小波分析，了解该流域径流变化趋势和周期特征；在已有常规气象数据基础上，提出了流域尺度实际蒸散量的估算模式，其参数的物理概念明确，可移植应用到同类生态分区的流域，改变了以往多数参照使用作物蒸发量经验公式的现状，为分布式模型的实际蒸散量的估算提供了有力工具；依据水文观测资料和流域特征，构建高山峡谷地区嵌套森林流域分布式降雨一径流模型，模型主要考虑的水文过程包括植被截留、蒸散、土壤入渗、坡面漫流、饱和壤中流、回归流、河网汇流等，并在中尺度流域进行验证，模拟结果显示，该模型能够较为合理的模拟研究区降雨一径流过程，效率系数达到0.6以上；应用该模型模拟米亚罗站上游、杂谷脑水文站上游、桑坪水文站上游（即整个杂谷脑流域）三个尺度的嵌套流域的降雨一径流过程，探索分布式模型进行尺度转换的效果及可行性，结果表明，只要能够满足模型参数和输入数据在时间尺度和空间尺度上的转换，就可以通过相同的模型结构在226km~2-4619km~2（单元格尺度为150m-500m）尺度范围内，应用本文构建的分布式模型进行降雨一径流过程的尺度转换。

Long-term hydroclimatic change and interannual variability in water sources, Apex River (Iqaluit), Baffin Island, Nunavut

The eastern Canadian Arctic is home to Canada’s largest Indigenous population, which depends on local freshwater sources for drinking water. However, small watersheds have rarely been analyzed for long-term hydrologic response to changing climate. This study aims to address this issue by examining the Apex River, a small watershed with a long hydroclimatic record, near Iqaluit, Nunavut. Particular emphasis was placed on the long-term changes in climate and river discharge, and the seasonal variability of water sources between two snapshots in time, 1983 and 2013. Long-term hydrological data were obtained from gauge station 10UH002, operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada, and long-term meteorological data were acquired from Environment Canada–operated stations near Iqaluit Airport. Breakpoint analysis suggested that long-term mean annual surface air temperatures have increased since 1994. In contrast, no long-term total precipitation or annual discharge changes were observed. However, river flow initiation and cessation analyses of the Apex River flow season indicates that flow extended into the autumn since the 2000s. The 2013 flow season lasted 44 days longer than the 1983 flow season. Systematic river sampling was undertaken throughout the 2013 thaw season to determine contributing proportions of event (snowmelt or rainfall) and pre-event (baseflow) water to river runoff. Results from the stable isotope hydrograph separation for 2013 were compared to findings for 1983. Snow was the main source of water to the river during the snowmelt period in 1983 and 2013, however baseflow was still an important contributor. Although there was high similarity of water sources early in the season in 1983 and 2013, the two years differed during the autumn. In 2013 there was a high rainfall runoff response that was not present in 1983, suggesting high release of late-season sub-surface water storage and an increased sensitivity to late-season rainfall events in 2013. This research provides insights into the hydrologic response of the Apex River to long-term climatic change, and highlights the need for high-quality precipitation and discharge data for effective long-term hydrological assessment.

Developing an integrated hydrograph separation and lumped modelling approach to quantifying hydrological pathways in Irish river catchments

An appreciation of the quantity of streamflow derived from the main hydrological pathways involved in transporting diffuse contaminants is critical when addressing a wide range of water resource management issues. In order to assess hydrological pathway contributions to streams, it is necessary to provide feasible upper and lower bounds for flows in each pathway. An important first step in this process is to provide reliable estimates of the slower responding groundwater pathways and subsequently the quicker overland and interflow pathways. This paper investigates the effectiveness of a multi-faceted approach applying different hydrograph separation techniques, supplemented by lumped hydrological modelling, for calculating the Baseflow Index (BFI), for the development of an integrated approach to hydrograph separation. A semi-distributed, lumped and deterministic rainfall runoff model known as NAM has been applied to ten catchments (ranging from 5 to 699 km2). While this modelling approach is useful as a validation method, NAM itself is also an important tool for investigation. These separation techniques provide a large variation in BFI, a difference of 0.741 predicted for BFI in a catchment with the less reliable fixed and sliding interval methods and local minima turning point methods included. This variation is reduced to 0.167 with these methods omitted. The Boughton and Eckhardt algorithms, while quite subjective in their use, provide quick and easily implemented approaches for obtaining physically realistic hydrograph separations. It is observed that while the different separation techniques give varying BFI values for each of the catchments, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland, when applied in conjunction with the Master recession Curve Tabulation method, predict estimates in agreement with those obtained using the NAM model, and these estimates are also consistent with the study catchments’ geology. These two separation methods, in conjunction with the NAM model, were selected to form an integrated approach to assessing BFI in catchments.

An Integrated Approach to Quantifying Groundwater and Surface Water Contributions of Stream Flow

The management of water resources in Ireland prior to the Water Framework Directive (WFD) has focussed on surface water and groundwater as separate entities. A critical element to the successful implementation of the
WFD is to improve our understanding of the interaction between the two and flow mechanisms by which groundwaters discharge to surface waters. An improved understanding of the contribution of groundwater to surface water is required for the classification of groundwater body status and the determination of groundwater quality thresholds. The results of the study will also have a wider application to many areas of the WFD.
A subcommittee of the WFD Groundwater Working Group (GWWG) has been formed to develop a methodology to estimate the groundwater contribution to Irish Rivers. The group has selected a number of analytical techniques to quantify components of stream flow in an Irish context (Master Recession Curve, Unit Hydrograph, Flood Studies Report methodologies and
hydrogeological analytical modelling). The components of stream flow that can be identified include deep groundwater, intermediate and overland. These analyses have been tested on seven pilot catchments that have a variety of hydrogeological settings and have been used to inform and constrain a mathematical model. The mathematical model used was the NAM (NedbØr-AfstrØmnings-Model) rainfall-runoff model which is a module of DHIs MIKE 11 modelling suite. The results from these pilot catchments have been used to develop a decision model based on catchment descriptors from GIS datasets for the selection of NAM parameters. The datasets used include the mapping of aquifers, vulnerability and subsoils, soils, the Digital Terrain Model, CORINE and lakes. The national coverage of the GIS datasets has allowed the extrapolation of the mathematical model to regional catchments across Ireland.

Assessing soil erosion due to land use change at the Alqueva reservoir surrounding area

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015