Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Assessing the welfare effects of microfinance in Vietnam : empirical results from a quasi-experimental survey

This article analyses the effects of NGO microfinance programmes on household welfare in Vietnam. Data on 470 households across 25 villages were collected using a quasi-experimental survey approach to overcome any self-selection bias. The sample was designed so that member households of microfinance programmes were compared with non-member households with similar characteristics. The analysis shows no significant effects of participation in NGO microfinance on household welfare, proxied by income and consumption per adult equivalent.

Text mining for screening efficiency? Testing within a Cochrane public health review

Background The requirement for dual screening of titles and abstracts to select papers to examine in full text can create a huge workload, not least when the topic is complex and a broad search strategy is required, resulting in a large number of results. An automated system to reduce this burden, while still assuring high accuracy, has the potential to provide huge efficiency savings within the review process. Objectives To undertake a direct comparison of manual screening with a semi‐automated process (priority screening) using a machine classifier. The research is being carried out as part of the current update of a population‐level public health review. Methods Authors have hand selected studies for the review update, in duplicate, using the standard Cochrane Handbook methodology. A retrospective analysis, simulating a quasi‐‘active learning’ process (whereby a classifier is repeatedly trained based on ‘manually’ labelled data) will be completed, using different starting parameters. Tests will be carried out to see how far different training sets, and the size of the training set, affect the classification performance; i.e. what percentage of papers would need to be manually screened to locate 100% of those papers included as a result of the traditional manual method. Results From a search retrieval set of 9555 papers, authors excluded 9494 papers at title/abstract and 52 at full text, leaving 9 papers for inclusion in the review update. The ability of the machine classifier to reduce the percentage of papers that need to be manually screened to identify all the included studies, under different training conditions, will be reported. Conclusions The findings of this study will be presented along with an estimate of any efficiency gains for the author team if the screening process can be semi‐automated using text mining methodology, along with a discussion of the implications for text mining in screening papers within complex health reviews.

Intravascular device administration sets: Replacement after standard versus prolonged use in hospitalised patients--a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (The RSVP Trial)

Introduction Vascular access devices (VADs), such as peripheral or central venous catheters, are vital across all medical and surgical specialties. To allow therapy or haemodynamic monitoring, VADs frequently require administration sets (AS) composed of infusion tubing, fluid containers, pressure-monitoring transducers and/or burettes. While VADs are replaced only when necessary, AS are routinely replaced every 3–4 days in the belief that this reduces infectious complications. Strong evidence supports AS use up to 4 days, but there is less evidence for AS use beyond 4 days. AS replacement twice weekly increases hospital costs and workload. Methods and analysis This is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial (RCT) of equivalence design comparing AS replacement at 4 (control) versus 7 (experimental) days. Randomisation is stratified by site and device, centrally allocated and concealed until enrolment. 6554 adult/paediatric patients with a central venous catheter, peripherally inserted central catheter or peripheral arterial catheter will be enrolled over 4 years. The primary outcome is VAD-related bloodstream infection (BSI) and secondary outcomes are VAD colonisation, AS colonisation, all-cause BSI, all-cause mortality, number of AS per patient, VAD time in situ and costs. Relative incidence rates of VAD-BSI per 100 devices and hazard rates per 1000 device days (95% CIs) will summarise the impact of 7-day relative to 4-day AS use and test equivalence. Kaplan-Meier survival curves (with log rank Mantel-Cox test) will compare VAD-BSI over time. Appropriate parametric or non-parametric techniques will be used to compare secondary end points. p Values of <0.05 will be considered significant.

Visual analytics for large-scale bioinformatic data sets

Rapid advances in sequencing technologies (Next Generation Sequencing or NGS) have led to a vast increase in the quantity of bioinformatics data available, with this increasing scale presenting enormous challenges to researchers seeking to identify complex interactions. This paper is concerned with the domain of transcriptional regulation, and the use of visualisation to identify relationships between specific regulatory proteins (the transcription factors or TFs) and their associated target genes (TGs). We present preliminary work from an ongoing study which aims to determine the effectiveness of different visual representations and large scale displays in supporting discovery. Following an iterative process of implementation and evaluation, representations were tested by potential users in the bioinformatics domain to determine their efficacy, and to understand better the range of ad hoc practices among bioinformatics literate users. Results from two rounds of small scale user studies are considered with initial findings suggesting that bioinformaticians require richly detailed views of TF data, features to compare TF layouts between organisms quickly, and ways to keep track of interesting data points.

A Quasi-Newton Adaptive Algorithm for Generalized Symmetric Eigenvalue Problem

In this paper, we first recast the generalized symmetric eigenvalue problem, where the underlying matrix pencil consists of symmetric positive definite matrices, into an unconstrained minimization problem by constructing an appropriate cost function, We then extend it to the case of multiple eigenvectors using an inflation technique, Based on this asymptotic formulation, we derive a quasi-Newton-based adaptive algorithm for estimating the required generalized eigenvectors in the data case. The resulting algorithm is modular and parallel, and it is globally convergent with probability one, We also analyze the effect of inexact inflation on the convergence of this algorithm and that of inexact knowledge of one of the matrices (in the pencil) on the resulting eigenstructure. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of this algorithm is almost identical to that of the rank-one updating algorithm of Karasalo. Further, the performance of the proposed algorithm has been found to remain stable even over 1 million updates without suffering from any error accumulation problems.

Quasi-static and dynamic strain sensing using carbon nanotube/epoxy nanocomposite thin films

Thin films are developed by dispersing carbon black nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in an epoxy polymer. The films show a large variation in electrical resistance when subjected to quasi-static and dynamic mechanical loading. This phenomenon is attributed to the change in the band-gap of the CNTs due to the applied strain, and also to the change in the volume fraction of the constituent phases in the percolation network. Under quasi-static loading, the films show a nonlinear response. This nonlinearity in the response of the films is primarily attributed to the pre-yield softening of the epoxy polymer. The electrical resistance of the films is found to be strongly dependent on the magnitude and frequency of the applied dynamic strain, induced by a piezoelectric substrate. Interestingly, the resistance variation is found to be a linear function of frequency and dynamic strain. Samples with a small concentration of just 0.57% of CNT show a sensitivity as high as 2.5% MPa-1 for static mechanical loading. A mathematical model based on Bruggeman's effective medium theory is developed to better understand the experimental results. Dynamic mechanical loading experiments reveal a sensitivity as high as 0.007% Hz(-1) at a constant small-amplitude vibration and up to 0.13%/mu-strain at 0-500 Hz vibration. Potential applications of such thin films include highly sensitive strain sensors, accelerometers, artificial neural networks, artificial skin and polymer electronics.

Higher-Order Nonlinearity In Accretion Disks: Quasi-Periodic Oscillations Of Black Hole And Neutron Star Sources And Their Spin

We propose a unified model to explain Quasi-Periodic Oscillation (QPO), particularly of high frequency, observed from black hole and neutron star systems globally. We consider accreting systems to be damped harmonic oscillators exhibiting epicyclic oscillations with higher-order nonlinear resonance to explain QPO. The resonance is expected to be driven by the disturbance from the compact object at its spin frequency. The model explains various properties parallelly for both types of the compact object. It describes QPOs successfully for ten different compact sources. Based on this, we predict the spin frequency of the neutron star Sco X-1 and specific angular momentum of black holes GRO J1655–40, XTE J1550–564, H1743–322, and GRS 1915+105.

Imaging in turbid media using quasi-ballistic photons

We study by means of experiments and Monte Carlo simulations, the scattering of light in random media, to determine the distance up to which photons travel along almost undeviated paths within a scattering medium, and are therefore capable of casting a shadow of an opaque inclusion embedded within the medium. Such photons are isolated by polarisation discrimination wherein the plane of linear polarisation of the input light is continuously rotated and the polarisation preserving component of the emerging light is extracted by means of a Fourier transform. This technique is a software implementation of lock-in detection. We find that images may be recovered to a depth far in excess of that predicted by the diffusion theory of photon propagation. To understand our experimental results, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to model the random walk behaviour of the multiply scattered photons. We present a. new definition of a diffusing photon in terms of the memory of its initial direction of propagation, which we then quantify in terms of an angular correlation function. This redefinition yields the penetration depth of the polarisation preserving photons. Based on these results, we have formulated a model to understand shadow formation in a turbid medium, the predictions of which are in good agreement with our experimental results.

Efficient designs for sampling and subsampling in fisheries research based on ranked sets

Sampling strategies are developed based on the idea of ranked set sampling (RSS) to increase efficiency and therefore to reduce the cost of sampling in fishery research. The RSS incorporates information on concomitant variables that are correlated with the variable of interest in the selection of samples. For example, estimating a monitoring survey abundance index would be more efficient if the sampling sites were selected based on the information from previous surveys or catch rates of the fishery. We use two practical fishery examples to demonstrate the approach: site selection for a fishery-independent monitoring survey in the Australian northern prawn fishery (NPF) and fish age prediction by simple linear regression modelling a short-lived tropical clupeoid. The relative efficiencies of the new designs were derived analytically and compared with the traditional simple random sampling (SRS). Optimal sampling schemes were measured by different optimality criteria. For the NPF monitoring survey, the efficiency in terms of variance or mean squared errors of the estimated mean abundance index ranged from 114 to 199% compared with the SRS. In the case of a fish ageing study for Tenualosa ilisha in Bangladesh, the efficiency of age prediction from fish body weight reached 140%.

A quasi-likelihood method for fractal-dimension estimation

We propose a simple method of constructing quasi-likelihood functions for dependent data based on conditional-mean-variance relationships, and apply the method to estimating the fractal dimension from box-counting data. Simulation studies were carried out to compare this method with the traditional methods. We also applied this technique to real data from fishing grounds in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Magnetic-properties of quasi-2-dimensional la1-xsr1+xmno4 and the evolution of itinerant electron ferromagnetism in the sro.(la1-xsrxmno3)n system

Quasi-two-dimensional oxides of the La,+,Sr,+,Mn04 system, possessing the KZNiF4 structure, show no evidence for ferromagnetic ordering in contrast to the corresponding three-dimensional La,+.Sr,MnO~ perovskites. Instead, there is an increasing tendency toward antiferromagnetic ordering with mcreasmg x m La,+,Sr,,, MnOp. Furthermore, these oxides are relatively high-resistivity materials over the entire compositional range. Substitution of Ba for Sr in La&r,.5Mn04 decreases the ferromagnetic interaction. Increasing the number of perovskite layers in SrO (La,-,Sr,MnO& causes an increase in electrical conductivity as well as ferromagnetic interaction. The oxide becomes a highly conducting ferromagnet when n 2 2.

A quasi-likelihood approach for ordered categorical data with overdispersion

Quasi-likelihood (QL) methods are often used to account for overdispersion in categorical data. This paper proposes a new way of constructing a QL function that stems from the conditional mean-variance relationship. Unlike traditional QL approaches to categorical data, this QL function is, in general, not a scaled version of the ordinary log-likelihood function. A simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the proposed QL method. Fish mortality data from quantal response experiments are used for illustration.

Magnetic properties of quasi-two-dimensional La2NiO4

Magnetic susceptibility studies on single crystals of nearly stoichiometric La2NiO4 with the applied field both parallel and perpendicular to the c axis show a transition at 204 K below which two-dimensional canted antiferromagnetic order seems to exist. This oxide also undergoes a transition from isotropic to anisotropic susceptibility near 100 and 250 K.