Impact of definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in antiretroviral therapy program evaluation: variation in the definition can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU

OBJECTIVE To examine the impact of different definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) on estimates of program outcomes in cohort studies of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We examined the impact of different definitions of LTFU using data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa. The reference approach, Definition A, was compared with five alternative scenarios that differed in eligibility for analysis and the date assigned to the LTFU outcome. Kaplan-Meier estimates of LTFU were calculated up to 2 years after starting ART. RESULTS Estimated cumulative LTFU were 14% and 22% at 12 and 24 months, respectively, using the reference approach. Differences in the proportion LTFU were reported in the alternative scenarios with 12-month estimates of LTFU varying by up to 39% compared with Definition A. Differences were largest when the date assigned to the LTFU outcome was 6 months after the date of last contact and when the site-specific definition of LTFU was used. CONCLUSION Variation in the definitions of LTFU within cohort analyses can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU over 2 years of follow-up. Use of a standardized definition of LTFU is needed to accurately measure program effectiveness and comparability between programs.

(Table 3) Run conditions and phase relations and proportions during cooling rate experiments on ODP Interval 163-989B-10R-7,55-59

Equilibrium melting and controlled cooling experiments were undertaken to constrain the crystallization and cooling histories of tholeiitic basalts recovered by the Ocean Drilling Program drilling of Site 989 on the Southeast Greenland continental margin. Isothermal experiments conducted at 1 atm. and at the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer using lava sample Section 163-989B-10R-7 yielded the equilibrium appearance sequence with decreasing temperature: olivine at 1184 ± 2ºC; plagioclase at 1177ºC ± 5ºC; augite at 1167 ± 5ºC; and pigeonite at 1113 ± 12ºC. In controlled cooling experiments using the same starting composition and cooling rates between 10ºC/hr and 2000ºC/hr, we find a significant temperature delay in the crystallization of olivine, plagioclase, and augite (relative to the equilibrium appearance temperature); pigeonite does not form under any dynamic crystallization conditions. Olivine exhibits the largest suppression in appearance temperature (e.g., 30º for 10ºC/hr and >190º at 100ºC/hr), while plagioclase shows the smallest (~10ºC at 10ºC/hr; 30ºC at 100ºC/hr, and ~80ºC at 1000ºC/hr). These results are in marked contrast to those obtained on lunar basalts, which generally show a large suppression of plagioclase crystallization and modest suppression of olivine crystallization with an increased cooling rate. The results we report agree well with the petrography of lavas recovered from Site 989. Furthermore, the textural analysis of run products, representing a large range of cooling rates and quench temperatures (1150ºC to 1000ºC), provide a framework for evaluating cooling conditions necessary for glass formation, rates of plagioclase growth, and kinetic factors governing plagioclase growth morphology. Specifically, we use these insights to interpret the textural and mineralogical features of the unusual compound flow recovered at Site 989. We concluded from the analysis that this flow most likely records multiple breakouts from a distal tube at an abrupt break in slope, possibly a fault scarp, resulting in the formation of a lava fan delta. This interpretation implies that normal faulting of the oldest lava sequences (lower and, possibly, middle series) preceded eruption of Site 989 lavas.

Predicting changes in abundance and juvenile proportions of earthworms in the field using glmmADMB in R

The study aimed at investigating effects of three differently acting biocides; the insecticide esfenvalerate, the fungicide picoxystrobin and the bactericide triclosan, applied individually and as a mixture, on an earthworm community in the field. A concentration-response design was chosen and results were analyzed using univariate and multivariate approaches. Effects on juvenile proportions were less pronounced and more variable than effects on abundance, but effects in general were species- and chemical-specific, and temporal variations distinct. Esfenvalerate and picoxystrobin appeared to elicit stronger effects than triclosan at laboratory-based ECx values, which is in accordance with our previous laboratory study on Eisenia fetida. The mixture affected abundance and juvenile proportions, but the latter only at high mixture concentrations. Esfenvalerate and picoxystrobin appeared to be the main drivers for the mixture's toxicity. Species-specific toxicity patterns question the reliability of mixture toxicity predictions derived on E. fetida for field earthworms. Biocide concentrations equaling EC50s (reproduction) for E. fetida provoked effects on the field earthworms mainly exceeding 50%, indicating effect intensification from the laboratory to field as well as the influence of indirect effects produced by species interactions. The differing results of the present field study and the previous laboratory study imply that lower- and higher-tier studies may not be mutually exclusive, but to be used in complementary.