It's parties that choose electoral systems (or Duverger's Law upside down)

This article presents, discusses and tests the hypothesis that it is the number of parties what can explain the choice of electoral systems, rather than the other way round. Already existing political parties tend to choose electoral systems that, rather than generate new party systems by themselves, will crystallize, consolidate or reinforce previously existing party configurations. A general model develops the argument and presents the concept of 'behavioral-institutional equilibrium' to account for the relation between electoral systems and party systems. The most comprehensive dataset and test of these notions to date, encompassing 219 elections in 87 countries since the 19th century, are presented. The analysis gives strong support to the hypotheses that political party configurations dominated by a few parties tend to establish majority rule electoral systems, while multiparty systems already existed before the introduction of proportional representation. It also offers the new theoretical proposition that strategic party choice of electoral systems leads to a general trend toward proportional representation over time.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

What you need to know about Judicial Retention Elections, August 2012

Retention elections are intended to focus on the professional competency of Iowa’s judges rather than the popularity of individual rulings. In a retention election, voters decide whether a judge should be retained or removed from office. If a judge receives a majority of “yes” votes, the judge serves another full term. If a judge receives a majority of “no” votes, the judge is removed from office at the end of the year.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

What makes for peaceful post-conflict elections?

Elections play a crucial role in post-conflict peace and democratization processes as, among other factors, they provide an answer to the question of who is to legitimately rule the country. However, because of the competitiveness arising from their central role in allocating power they can also represent windows of vulnerability where deeply rooted societal conflicts can come to the surface. This working paper focuses on two post-conflict elections (Sierra Leone 2007; Nepal 2008) which, despite perceived high risks, did not result in widespread violence or a return to armed conflict. The aim of these case studies is to identify the factors and measures that may have played an important role in contributing to this outcome. Each of the two case studies first outlines the risks associated with the elections and then analyzes the violence and conflict preventing factors. The paper shows that that the context greatly influences the type of measures that can be taken in such situations, but that there are also some similarities in the two cases studied. In particular, it appears that that the credibility of the elections, largely attributable to a good electoral administration, was an important factor in both Nepal and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, the inclusion of all key stakeholders in decisions regarding key electoral institutions helped to diffuse potential conflict. The study also shows that in both cases the international community played an important role by providing financial, logistical and technical support and by pressuring certain important actors to comply with the rules.

Elections Laws of Iowa, 2013

This publication is produced by the Legislative Services Agency. This publication contains all election laws to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code. Changes in Code language to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code are marked by highlighting in yellow. Code sections with changes are also highlighted in yellow in the Table of Contents.

Elections Laws of Iowa, 2014

This publication is produced by the Legislative Services Agency. This publication contains all election laws to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code. Changes in Code language to be included in the 2014 Iowa Code are marked by highlighting in yellow. Code sections with changes are also highlighted in yellow in the Table of Contents.

El sistema electoral de les Corts Valencianes: orígens i reforma

[cat] Aquest article vol refutar la hipòtesi que els partits decideixen sistemes electorals majoritaris i que decideixen també mantenir-los invariables, sempre que el sistema de partits s"aproximi al bipartidisme i cap dels dos grans partits pugui perdre la seva posició a favor d"un nou competidor. De manera inversa, els sistemes electorals proporcionals són la conseqüència del multipartidisme, en el qual cap partit té opcions de rebre la majoria dels vots. El cas valencià, però, confirma només parcialment la hipòtesi: els partits van aprovar el 1982 regles proporcionals perquè les eleccions dels parlaments autonòmics eren considerades secundàries, no només pel multipartidisme existent aleshores. En canvi, sí que es confirma que el canvi iniciat el 2006 amb la reforma estatutària manté, de moment, l"status quo per no alterar la formació de majories parlamentàries. Encara queda pendent, però, que es modifiqui la Llei Electoral, de la qual depèn quin mínim de vots per entrar a les Corts s"establirà.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Evidence of systematic and proportional error in a widely used glucose oxidase analyser: Impact for clinical research?

Real time glycemia is a cornerstone for metabolic research, particularly when performing oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) or glucose clamps. From 1965 to 2009, the gold standard device for real time plasma glucose assessment was the Beckman glucose analyzer 2 (Beckman Instruments, Fullerton, CA), which technology couples glucose oxidase enzymatic assay with oxygen sensors. Since its discontinuation in 2009, today's researchers are left with few choices that utilize glucose oxidase technology. The first one is the YSI 2300 (Yellow Springs Instruments Corp., Yellow Springs, OH), known to be as accurate as the Beckman(1). The YSI has been used extensively for clinical research studies and is used to validate other glucose monitoring devices(2). The major drawback of the YSI is that it is relatively slow and requires high maintenance. The Analox GM9 (Analox instruments, London), more recent and faster, is increasingly used in clinical research(3) as well as in basic sciences(4) (e.g. 23 papers in Diabetes or 21 in Diabetologia). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A Large-Sized Multiwire Proportional Counter for Radiological Survey of Large Areas and Surfaces

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten eri parametrit vaikuttavat monilankaisen verrannollisuuslaskurin laskennallisiin ominaisuuksiin sekä voidaanko suurikokoista monilankaverrannollisuuslaskuria käyttää tehokkaasti suurien pintojen ? - ja ?- kontaminaation mittaamiseen. Ensin selvitettiin EU:n nykyistä clearing-käytäntöä sekä hahmoteltiin tulevia materiaalivirtoja, esiteltiin verrannollisuuslaskurin ja sen monilankamallin toimintaperiaate sekä käytettävien materiaalien ominaisuudet. Kootun teorian pohjalta selvitettiin tärkeimpien parametrien vaikutus ilmaisimen laskennallisiin ominaisuuksiin. Lopuksi suoritettiin rakenteilla olevan monilankaverrannollisuuslaskurin alustava testaus. Tulevien vuosien aikana eri puolilla maailmaa suljettavat erityyppiset ydinlaitokset luovat suuren tarpeen tehokkaiden kontaminaatiomittauslaitteistojen kehittämiselle. Tällä hetkellä mittaukset suoritetaan lähinnä noin 1 dm2 käsi-instrumentein, joten suurikokoinen, automatisoitu mittauslaitteisto sekä tehostaisi mittausprosessia suuresti sekä säästäisi runsaasti miestyötunteja. Jatkotoimenpiteiksi ehdotetaan laitteiston jatkotestausta, liikkeen ja nopeuden testausta sekä lopulta paikkaherkkyystoiminnon toteuttamisperiaatteen valintaa ja testausta.

The proportional distribution in a cooperative model with external opportunities

[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.