Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Endoleak and in-stent thrombus detection with CT angiography in a thoracic aortic aneurysm phantom at different tube energies using filtered back projection and iterative algorithms.

PURPOSE: To determine the lower limit of dose reduction with hybrid and fully iterative reconstruction algorithms in detection of endoleaks and in-stent thrombus of thoracic aorta with computed tomographic (CT) angiography by applying protocols with different tube energies and automated tube current modulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The calcification insert of an anthropomorphic cardiac phantom was replaced with an aortic aneurysm model containing a stent, simulated endoleaks, and an intraluminal thrombus. CT was performed at tube energies of 120, 100, and 80 kVp with incrementally increasing noise indexes (NIs) of 16, 25, 34, 43, 52, 61, and 70 and a 2.5-mm section thickness. NI directly controls radiation exposure; a higher NI allows for greater image noise and decreases radiation. Images were reconstructed with filtered back projection (FBP) and hybrid and fully iterative algorithms. Five radiologists independently analyzed lesion conspicuity to assess sensitivity and specificity. Mean attenuation (in Hounsfield units) and standard deviation were measured in the aorta to calculate signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Attenuation and SNR of different protocols and algorithms were analyzed with analysis of variance or Welch test depending on data distribution. RESULTS: Both sensitivity and specificity were 100% for simulated lesions on images with 2.5-mm section thickness and an NI of 25 (3.45 mGy), 34 (1.83 mGy), or 43 (1.16 mGy) at 120 kVp; an NI of 34 (1.98 mGy), 43 (1.23 mGy), or 61 (0.61 mGy) at 100 kVp; and an NI of 43 (1.46 mGy) or 70 (0.54 mGy) at 80 kVp. SNR values showed similar results. With the fully iterative algorithm, mean attenuation of the aorta decreased significantly in reduced-dose protocols in comparison with control protocols at 100 kVp (311 HU at 16 NI vs 290 HU at 70 NI, P ≤ .0011) and 80 kVp (400 HU at 16 NI vs 369 HU at 70 NI, P ≤ .0007). CONCLUSION: Endoleaks and in-stent thrombus of thoracic aorta were detectable to 1.46 mGy (80 kVp) with FBP, 1.23 mGy (100 kVp) with the hybrid algorithm, and 0.54 mGy (80 kVp) with the fully iterative algorithm.

Renal arteries: navigator-gated balanced fast field-echo projection MR angiography with aortic spin labeling: initial experience.

A cardiac-triggered free-breathing three-dimensional balanced fast field-echo projection magnetic resonance (MR) angiographic sequence with a two-dimensional pencil-beam aortic labeling pulse was developed for the renal arteries. For data acquisition during free breathing in eight healthy adults and seven consecutive patients with renal artery disease, real-time navigator technology was implemented. This technique allows high-spatial-resolution and high-contrast renal MR angiography and visualization of renal artery stenosis without exogenous contrast agent or breath hold. Initial promising results warrant larger clinical studies.

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , Chapelle souterraine de S. Janvier, détails sur une échelle de 005 P.M. : [coupe transversale, élévation et plan avec projection du plafond d'une des petites chapelles latérales] : [dessin] / h. L. [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 228

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , Villa Pia. Peintures dans la Voûte de la galerie du premier Etage. Stucs. Décoration en mosaïque dans les vestibules aux entrées de la cour : [détails ornementaux, élévation partielle d'un des vestibules (trois niches), coupe sur une niche, projection du plafond de ladite niche] : [dessin] / h. L. [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 636

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , [Villa Poniatowski : un plafond] : [projection] : [dessin] / [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 637

Trends in mortality from leukemia in Europe: an update to 2009 and a projection to 2012.

We considered trends in mortality from leukemia in Europe over the period 1970-2009 using data from the World Health Organization. We computed age-standardized (world population) mortality rates, at all ages and in selected age groups, in 11 selected European countries, the European Union (EU) and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan. For the EU, we also provided projections of the mortality to 2012. Over the period considered, mortality from leukemia steadily declined in most European countries in children and young adults, as well as in western and southern Europe at middle-age (45-69 years); in central/eastern Europe, reductions at ages 45-69 started since the mid-late 1990s. In the EU, annual percent changes were -3.7% in males and -3.8% in females at age 0-14, -2% in both sexes at age 15-44, and -0.6% in males and -1% in females at middle-age and overall. No decline was observed at age 70 or more. Between 1997 and 2007, overall EU rates decreased from 5.4 to 4.8/100,000 males and from 3.4 to 2.9/100,000 females. Declines were from 6.2 to 5.5/100,000 males and from 3.7 to 3.2/100,000 females in the USA and from 3.9 to 3.5/100,000 males and from 2.5 to 2.0/100,000 females in Japan. Projected overall rates in the EU at 2012 are 4.3/100,000 males (-11% compared to 2007) and 2.6/100,000 females (-12%).

The thalamocortical projection systems in primate: an anatomical support for multisensory and sensorimotor interplay.

Multisensory and sensorimotor integrations are usually considered to occur in superior colliculus and cerebral cortex, but few studies proposed the thalamus as being involved in these integrative processes. We investigated whether the organization of the thalamocortical (TC) systems for different modalities partly overlap, representing an anatomical support for multisensory and sensorimotor interplay in thalamus. In 2 macaque monkeys, 6 neuroanatomical tracers were injected in the rostral and caudal auditory cortex, posterior parietal cortex (PE/PEa in area 5), and dorsal and ventral premotor cortical areas (PMd, PMv), demonstrating the existence of overlapping territories of thalamic projections to areas of different modalities (sensory and motor). TC projections, distinct from the ones arising from specific unimodal sensory nuclei, were observed from motor thalamus to PE/PEa or auditory cortex and from sensory thalamus to PMd/PMv. The central lateral nucleus and the mediodorsal nucleus project to all injected areas, but the most significant overlap across modalities was found in the medial pulvinar nucleus. The present results demonstrate the presence of thalamic territories integrating different sensory modalities with motor attributes. Based on the divergent/convergent pattern of TC and corticothalamic projections, 4 distinct mechanisms of multisensory and sensorimotor interplay are proposed.

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , [Caisson et ornement au] Colisée : [vue perspective d'un ornement non identifié, projection et coupe d'un caisson] : [dessin] / [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 500a

Navigator-gated free-breathing 3D balanced FFE projection renal MRA: Comparison with contrast-enhanced breath-hold 3D MRA in a swine model.

A cardiac-triggered, free-breathing, 3D balanced FFE projection renal MR angiography (MRA) technique with a 2D pencil beam aortic labeling pulse for selective aortic spin tagging was developed. For respiratory motion artifact suppression during free breathing, a prospective real-time navigator was implemented for renal MRA. Images obtained with the new approach were compared with standard contrast-enhanced (CE) 3D breath-hold MRA in seven swine. Signal properties and vessel visualization were analyzed. With the presented technique, high-resolution, high-contrast renal projection MRA with superior vessel length visualization (including a greater visible number of distal branches of the renal arteries) compared to standard breath-hold CE-MRA was obtained. The present results warrant clinical studies in patients with renal artery disease.

Computed tomography of the cervical spine: comparison of image quality between a standard-dose and a low-dose protocol using filtered back-projection and iterative reconstruction.

OBJECTIVE: To compare image quality of a standard-dose (SD) and a low-dose (LD) cervical spine CT protocol using filtered back-projection (FBP) and iterative reconstruction (IR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Forty patients investigated by cervical spine CT were prospectively randomised into two groups: SD (120 kVp, 275 mAs) and LD (120 kVp, 150 mAs), both applying automatic tube current modulation. Data were reconstructed using both FBP and sinogram-affirmed IR. Image noise, signal-to-noise (SNR) and contrast-to-noise (CNR) ratios were measured. Two radiologists independently and blindly assessed the following anatomical structures at C3-C4 and C6-C7 levels, using a four-point scale: intervertebral disc, content of neural foramina and dural sac, ligaments, soft tissues and vertebrae. They subsequently rated overall image quality using a ten-point scale. RESULTS: For both protocols and at each disc level, IR significantly decreased image noise and increased SNR and CNR, compared with FBP. SNR and CNR were statistically equivalent in LD-IR and SD-FBP protocols. Regardless of the dose and disc level, the qualitative scores with IR compared with FBP, and with LD-IR compared with SD-FBP, were significantly higher or not statistically different for intervertebral discs, neural foramina and ligaments, while significantly lower or not statistically different for soft tissues and vertebrae. The overall image quality scores were significantly higher with IR compared with FBP, and with LD-IR compared with SD-FBP. CONCLUSION: LD-IR cervical spine CT provides better image quality for intervertebral discs, neural foramina and ligaments, and worse image quality for soft tissues and vertebrae, compared with SD-FBP, while reducing radiation dose by approximately 40 %.