Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Secondary prevention through cardiac rehabilitation: physical activity counselling and exercise training: key components of the position paper from the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation

Cardiac patients after an acute event and/or with chronic heart disease deserve special attention to restore their quality of life and to maintain or improve functional capacity. They require counselling to avoid recurrence through a combination of adherence to a medication plan and adoption of a healthy lifestyle. These secondary prevention targets are included in the overall goal of cardiac rehabilitation (CR). Cardiac rehabilitation can be viewed as the clinical application of preventive care by means of a professional multi-disciplinary integrated approach for comprehensive risk reduction and global long-term care of cardiac patients. The CR approach is delivered in tandem with a flexible follow-up strategy and easy access to a specialized team. To promote implementation of cardiac prevention and rehabilitation, the CR Section of the EACPR (European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation) has recently completed a Position Paper, entitled 'Secondary prevention through cardiac rehabilitation: A condition-oriented approach'. Components of multidisciplinary CR for seven clinical presentations have been addressed. Components include patient assessment, physical activity counselling, exercise training, diet/nutritional counselling, weight control management, lipid management, blood pressure monitoring, smoking cessation, and psychosocial management. Cardiac rehabilitation services are by definition multi-factorial and comprehensive, with physical activity counselling and exercise training as central components in all rehabilitation and preventive interventions. Many of the risk factor improvements occurring in CR can be mediated through exercise training programmes. This call-for-action paper presents the key components of a CR programme: physical activity counselling and exercise training. It summarizes current evidence-based best practice for the wide range of patient presentations of interest to the general cardiology community.

Putting the magic in magic bullets: top three global priorities for sexually transmitted infection control

Setting practical priorities for sexually transmitted infection (STI) control is a balance between idealism and pragmatism. Infections transmitted through unsafe sex (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, HIV, hepatitis B and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections) rank in the top five causes of the global burden of disease.1 Their distribution in populations is driven by a complex mixture of individual behaviours, social and community norms and societal and historical context. Ideally, we would be able to reduce exposure to unsafe sex to its theoretical minimum level of zero and thus eliminate a significant proportion of the current global burden of disease, particularly in resource-poor settings.2 Ideally, we would have ‘magic bullets’ for diagnosing and preventing STI in addition to specific antimicrobial agents for specific infections.3 Arguably, we have ‘bullets’ that work at the individual level; highly accurate diagnostic tests and highly efficacious vaccines, antimicrobial agents and preventive interventions.4 Introducing them into populations to achieve similarly high levels of effectiveness has been more challenging.4 In practice, the ‘magic’ in the magic bullet can be seen as overcoming the barriers to sustainable implementation in partnerships, larger sexual networks and populations (figure 1).4 We have chosen three (pragmatic) priorities for interventions that we believe could be implemented and scaled up to control STI other than HIV/AIDS. We present these starting with the partnership and moving up to the population level.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

A Prevention Approach to Critical Life Events of the Elderly

Professionals interested in aging and mental health have not fully considered preventive efforts. In this article, we present a conceptual framework and rationale for developing preventive interventions focused on older adults. In addition, an example is presented of preventive programming which uses an existing community dissemination network.

Adjuvant breast cancer treatment and cognitive function: current knowledge and research directions

Evidence is mounting that potentially curative systemic adjuvant therapy for early-stage breast cancer may result in cognitive impairment. Five published studies have investigated cognitive function in this setting, and the consistent results of all five studies suggest an adverse effect of adjuvant chemotherapy. These studies are reviewed with particular attention to their methodologic limitations. For example, all five studies used cross-sectional designs, none controlled for possible confounding hormonal factors, and three examined patients who had not received a uniform chemotherapy regimen. The potential roles of chemotherapy-induced menopause and of adjuvant hormonal therapy in cognitive impairment are also discussed. Priorities for future research include confirmation of an effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in a study with a longitudinal design, closer examination of the potential contribution of hormonal factors, and similar studies on the effect of adjuvant therapy on cognitive function in other cancer types. If an effect of systemic adjuvant therapy on cognitive function is confirmed, such an effect will have implications for informed consent. It may also result in incorporation of objective measures of cognition in clinical trials of adjuvant therapy and in the investigation of preventive interventions that might minimize the impact of cognitive dysfunction after cancer treatment.

Reducing liver cancer disparities: a community-based hepatitis-B prevention program for Asian-American communities

OBJECTIVES: Several Asian-American groups are at a higher risk of dying of liver diseases attributable to hepatitis-B infection. This culturally diverse community should be well informed of and protected against liver diseases. The present study assesses the knowledge of hepatitis B before and after a hepatitis-B educational program and determines the infection status of an Asian community. METHODS: Nine Asian communities of Montgomery County, MD, enrolled in the hepatitis-B prevention program between 2005 and 2006. They attended culturally tailored lectures on prevention, completed self-administered pre- and posttests, and received blood screening for the disease. RESULTS: More than 800 Asian Americans participated in the study. Knowledge of prevention was improved after educational delivery. The average infection rate was 4.5%, with Cambodian, Thai, Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean groups having higher infection rates. The age group of 36-45 had the highest percentage of carriers (9.1%). CONCLUSION: Many Asian groups, particularly those of a southeast Asian decent, were subject to a higher probability of hepatitis-B infection. At an increased risk are first-generation Asian immigrants, groups with low immunization rates and those aged 36-45. The findings provide potential directions for focusing preventive interventions on at-risk Asian communities to reduce liver cancer disparities.

Project Alpha: A culturally appropriate approach to adolescent male sex education

In the United States today, adolescents face unacceptably high rates of mortality and morbidity due to the contraction of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted diseases and teenage pregnancy. In view of these rates, there is a need for applied preventive interventions to delay adolescent sexual behavior until adulthood. Project Alpha was a school-adopted, quasi-experimental program for adolescent male students attending Sharpstown High School in Houston, Texas. This intervention used student newsletters to provide specific role-model stories on community and student role models who have changed attitudes or improved efficacy to abstain from sexual behavior until adulthood. It was hypothesized that teenagers exposed to the intervention would show improvements in knowledge, beliefs, avoidance skills, perceived norms, intentions and self-efficacy to delay sexual behavior compared to no-treatment reference teenagers in the same school.^ In total, the Project Alpha program had a significant effect on student knowledge, beliefs (towards abstinence and having sex with multiple partners), perceived risk (HIV/STD testing), self-efficacy (could avoid sex with attractive girl who wants to have sex), perceived social norms (friends believing in sexual abstinence) and sexual intentions. However, no significant intervention effects were found in student's beliefs (that it was OK to have sex with girlfriend), perceived risk of HIV/STD, self-efficacy (to avoid sex with girlfriend) and social norms (friends believe it is OK to have sex with a girlfriend and multiple partners in the same month). ^

Body composition and all-cause mortality in subjects older than 65 y.

BACKGROUND A low or high body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased mortality risk in older subjects without taking fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) into account. This information is essential because FMI is modulated through different healthcare strategies than is FFMI. OBJECTIVE We aimed to determine the relation between body composition and mortality in older subjects. DESIGN We included all adults ≥65 y old who were living in Switzerland and had a body-composition measurement by bioelectrical impedance analysis at the Geneva University Hospitals between 1990 and 2011. FMI and FFMI were divided into sex-specific quartiles. Quartile 1 (i.e., the reference category) corresponded to the lowest FMI or FFMI quartile. Mortality data were retrieved from the hospital database, the Geneva death register, and the Swiss National Cohort until December 2012. Comorbidities were assessed by using the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. RESULTS Of 3181 subjects included, 766 women and 1007 men died at a mean age of 82.8 and 78.5 y, respectively. Sex-specific Cox regression models, which were used to adjust for age, BMI, smoking, ambulatory or hospitalized state, and calendar time, showed that body composition did not predict mortality in women irrespective of whether comorbidities were taken into account. In men, risk of mortality was lower with FFMI in quartiles 3 and 4 [HR: 0.78 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.98) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.85), respectively] but was not affected by FMI. When comorbidities were adjusted for, FFMI in quartile 4 (>19.5 kg/m(2)) still predicted a lower risk of mortality (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS Low FFMI is a stronger predictor of mortality than is BMI in older men but not older women. FMI had no impact on mortality. These results suggest potential benefits of preventive interventions with the aim of maintaining muscle mass in older men. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01472679.

Risk Factors for Sternal Wound Infection After Open Heart Operations Vary According to Type of Operation

BACKGROUND This study evaluated whether risk factors for sternal wound infections vary with the type of surgical procedure in cardiac operations. METHODS This was a university hospital surveillance study of 3,249 consecutive patients (28% women) from 2006 to 2010 (median age, 69 years [interquartile range, 60 to 76]; median additive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score, 5 [interquartile range, 3 to 8]) after (1) isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), (2) isolated valve repair or replacement, or (3) combined valve procedures and CABG. All other operations were excluded. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were conducted to identify independent predictors for development of sternal wound infections. RESULTS We detected 122 sternal wound infections (3.8%) in 3,249 patients: 74 of 1,857 patients (4.0%) after CABG, 19 of 799 (2.4%) after valve operations, and 29 of 593 (4.9%) after combined procedures. In CABG patients, bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest, procedural duration exceeding 300 minutes, diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and female sex (model 1) were independent predictors for sternal wound infection. A second model (model 2), using the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, revealed bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest, diabetes, obesity, and the second and third quartiles of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation were independent predictors. In valve patients, model 1 showed only revision for bleeding as an independent predictor for sternal infection, and model 2 yielded both revision for bleeding and diabetes. For combined valve and CABG operations, both regression models demonstrated revision for bleeding and duration of operation exceeding 300 minutes were independent predictors for sternal infection. CONCLUSIONS Risk factors for sternal wound infections after cardiac operations vary with the type of surgical procedure. In patients undergoing valve operations or combined operations, procedure-related risk factors (revision for bleeding, duration of operation) independently predict infection. In patients undergoing CABG, not only procedure-related risk factors but also bilateral internal thoracic artery harvest and patient characteristics (diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity, female sex) are predictive of sternal wound infection. Preventive interventions may be justified according to the type of operation.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Perception of a hectic hospital environment at admission relates to acute stress disorder symptoms in myocardial infarction patients.

OBJECTIVE Hospital crowding is a public health problem that may impact on the quality of medical treatment and increase the risk of developing traumatic stress, e.g., after myocardial infarction (MI). This study examines whether subjective appraisal of crowding at hospital admission due to MI is associated with acute stress disorder (ASD) symptoms. METHOD We investigated 102 consecutive patients with acute MI within 48h after having reached stable circulatory conditions. The appraisal of crowding was measured by the retrospective assessment of the perception of a hectic hospital environment at admission. Furthermore, patients completed the Acute Stress Disorder Scale to rate the psychological stress reaction. RESULTS The perception of a hectic hospital environment was associated with the development of ASD symptoms (r=0.254, P=.013) independently of demographic, peritraumatic and medical factors. Post hoc analysis revealed associations with dissociative (r=0.211, P=.041), reexperiencing (r=0.184, P=.074) and arousal (r=0.179, P=.083) symptoms. CONCLUSION The findings suggest that, besides objective circumstances, the way hospital admission due to MI is perceived by the patient may influence the development of MI-triggered ASD symptoms. The psychological and physiological long-term outcomes of the perception of a hectic hospital environment and the role of preventive interventions need further examination.

The cost effective management of Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infections (CLABSIs) comparing the central line bundle to antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters: A systematic review

Central Line-Associated Bloodstream Infections (CLABSIs) are one of the most costly and preventable cases of morbidity and mortality among intensive care units (ICUs) in health care today. In 2008, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Program, under the Deficit Reduction Act, announced it will no longer reimburse hospitals for such adverse events among those related to CLABSIs. This reveals the financial burden shift onto the hospital rather than the health care payer who can now withhold reimbursements. With this weighing more heavily on hospital management, decision makers will need to find a way to completely prevent cases of CLABSI or simply pay for the financial consequences. ^ To reduce the risk of CLABSIs, several clinical, preventive interventions have been studied and even instituted including the Central Line (CL) Bundle and Antimicrobial Coated Central Venous Catheters (AM-CVCs). I carried out a formal systematic review on the topic to compare the cost-effectiveness of the Central Line (CL) Bundle to the commercially available antimicrobial coated central venous catheters (AM-CVCs) in preventing CLABSIs among critically and chronically ill patients in the U.S. Evidence was assessed for inclusion against predefined criteria. I, myself, conducted the data extraction. Ten studies were included in the review. Efficacy in reducing the mean incidence rate of CLABSI by the CL Bundle and AM-CVC interventions were compared with one another including costs. ^ The AM-CVC impregnated with antibiotics, rifampin-minocycline (AI-RM) is more clinically effective than the CL Bundle in reducing the mean rate of CLABSI per 1,000 catheter days. The lowest mean incidence rate of CLABSI per 1,000 catheter days among the AM-CVC studies was as low as zero in favor of the AI-RM. Moreover, the review revealed that the AI-RM appears to be more cost-effective than the CL Bundle. Results showed the adjusted incremental cost of the CL Bundle per ICU patient requiring a CVC to be approximately $196 while the AI-RM at only an additional cost of $48 per ICU patient requiring a CVC. ^ Limited data regarding the cost of the CL Bundle made it difficult to make a true comparison to the direct cost of the AM-CVCs. However, using the result I did have from this review, I concluded that the AM-CVCs do appear to be more cost-effective in decreasing the mean rate of CLABSI while also minimizing incremental costs per CVC than the CL Bundle. This review calls for further research addressing the cost of the CL Bundle and compliance and more effective study designs such as randomized control trials comparing the efficacy and cost of the CL Bundle to the AM-CVCs. Barriers that may face health care managers when implementing the CL Bundle or AM-CVCs include additional costs associated with the intervention, educational training and ongoing reinforcement as well as creating a new culture of understanding.^

Family Coping as a Protective Factor for Poor Children

This study examined family influences on coping and adjustment among 90 low-income Latino middle school children (46% Female; Average age = 11.38, SD = .66) and their primary caregivers (93% Female; Average age = 36.12, SD = 6.13). All participants identified as Hispanic/Latino, with 75% of families identifying as Mexican-origin Latino, 77% of parents identifying as immigrants, and 32% of children identifying immigrants. All children participating in the study were receiving free or reduced lunch, a poverty indicator. Hierarchical linear modeling analyses revealed that family reframing is related to fewer symptoms of psychopathology and that familism enhances the protective effect of family reframing, while passive appraisal is linked to worse functioning. Path analyses showed that family reframing also has indirect effects on symptoms through child primary control coping. Additional analyses identified family mobilizing support and family ethnic socialization as potential contributors to child secondary control coping. Family mobilizing support may also be helpful for single-parent families, while family spiritual support is helpful for immigrant families. Qualitative findings from an initial focus group and from the larger sample are also discussed. Results are discussed with regard to the implications of this research for preventive interventions with families in poverty. Understanding the protective links of family coping and cultural strengths to mental health outcomes of poor children can influence intervention or prevention programming and policy targeting at-risk youth and families.

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.