Status epilepticus: an independent outcome predictor after cerebral anoxia.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of status epilepticus (SE) depends on its cause, but there is uncertainty as to whether SE represents an independent outcome predictor for a given etiology. Cerebral anoxia is a relatively homogenous severe encephalopathy. Postanoxic SE is associated to a nearly 100% mortality in this setting; however, it is still unclear whether this is a severity marker of the underlying encephalopathy, or an independent factor influencing outcome. The goal of this study was to assess if postanoxic SE is independently associated with mortality after cerebral anoxia. METHODS: This was a retrospective observation of consecutive comatose survivors of cardiac arrest, including subjects treated with hypothermia. On the subgroup with EEG recordings in the first hospitalization days, univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to potential determinants of in-hospital mortality, and included the following variables: age, gender, type and length of cardiac arrest, occurrence of circulatory shock, presence of therapeutic hypothermia, and electrographic SE. RESULTS: Out of 166 postanoxic patients, 107 (64%) had an EEG (median latency from admission, 2 days); in this group, therapeutic hypothermia was administered in 59%. Death occurred in 71 (67%) patients. Postanoxic SE was associated with mortality regardless of type of acute cardiac rhythm and administration of hypothermic treatment. CONCLUSION: In this hospital-based cohort, postanoxic status epilepticus (SE) seems to be independently related to death in cardiac arrest survivors, suggesting that SE might determine a bad prognosis for a given etiology. Confirmation of these results in a prospective assessment is needed.

A combined molecular clinical predictor of survival validated with the rtog-0525 cohort

For glioblastoma (GBM), survival classification has primarily relied on clinical criteria, exemplified by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recursive partitioning analysis (RPA). We sought to improve tumor classification by combining tumor biomarkers with the clinical RPA data. To accomplish this, we first developed 4 molecular biomarkers derived from gene expression profiling, a glioma CpG island methylator phenotype, a novel MGMT promoter methylation assay, and IDH1 mutations. A molecular predictor (MP) model was created with these 4 biomarkers on a training set of 220 retrospectively collected archival GBMtumors. ThisMPwas further combined with RPA classification to develop a molecular-clinical predictor (MCP). The median survivals for the combined, 4-class MCP were 65 months, 31 months, 13 months, and 9 months, which was significantly improved when compared with the RPA alone. The MCP was then applied to 725 samples from the RTOG-0525 cohort, showing median survival for each risk group of NR, 26 months, 16 months, and 11 months. The MCP was significantly improved over the RPA at outcome prediction in the RTOG 0525 cohort with a 33%increase in explained variation with respect to survival, validating the result obtained in the training set. To illustrate the benefit of the MCP for patient stratification, we examined progression-free survival (PFS) for patients receiving standard-dose temozolomide (SD-TMZ) vs. dose-dense TMZ (DD-TMZ) in RPA and MCP risk groups. A significant difference between DD-TMZ and SD-TMZ was observed in the poorest surviving MCP risk group with a median PFS of 6 months vs. 3 months (p ¼ 0.048, log-rank test). This difference was not seen using the RPA classification alone. In summary, we have developed a combined molecular-clinical predictor that appears to improve outcome prediction when compared with clinical variables alone. This MCP may serve to better identify patients requiring intensive treatments beyond the standard of care.

Interferon-Induced Gene Expression Is a Stronger Predictor of Treatment Response Than IL28B Genotype in Patients With Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The host immune response during the chronic phase of hepatitis C virus infection varies among individuals; some patients have a no interferon (IFN) response in the liver, whereas others have full activation IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs). Preactivation of this endogenous IFN system is associated with nonresponse to pegylated IFN-α (pegIFN-α) and ribavirin. Genome-wide association studies have associated allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response. We investigated whether IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of ISGs in the liver and compared the abilities of ISG levels and IL28B genotype to predict treatment outcome. METHODS: We genotyped 109 patients with chronic hepatitis C for IL28B allelic variants and quantified the hepatic expression of ISGs and of IL28B. Decision tree ensembles, in the form of a random forest classifier, were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The minor IL28B allele was significantly associated with increased expression of ISG. However, stratification of the patients according to treatment response revealed increased ISG expression in nonresponders, irrespective of IL28B genotype. Multivariate analysis of ISG expression, IL28B genotype, and several other factors associated with response to therapy identified ISG expression as the best predictor of treatment response. CONCLUSIONS: IL28B genotype and hepatic expression of ISGs are independent predictors of response to treatment with pegIFN-α and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C. The most accurate prediction of response was obtained with a 4-gene classifier comprising IFI27, ISG15, RSAD2, and HTATIP2.

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 (GAS6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the 'Sepsis Cohorte Romande'. Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.Results: Non-survivors (n = 19) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n = 78; median 287% vs. 158%, IQR 182 and 119 respectively; P = 0.0003). Gas6 correlated positively with different cytokine and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area (Fig. 1). In patients with septic shock (n = 67), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement had a specificity of 81% and a sensitivity of 68% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area was 0.76. Positive and negative predictive values were 59% and 87%, respectively.Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict mortality in patients with septic shock. Nevertheless, independent association of Gas6 level with mortality still needs to be assessed. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated.

HIV-1 Subtype Is an Independent Predictor of Reverse Transcriptase Mutation K65R in HIV-1 Patients Treated with Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Including Tenofovir.

Subtype-dependent selection of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase resistance mutation K65R was previously observed in cell culture and small clinical investigations. We compared K65R prevalence across subtypes A, B, C, F, G, and CRF02_AG separately in a cohort of 3,076 patients on combination therapy including tenofovir. K65R selection was significantly higher in HIV-1 subtype C. This could not be explained by clinical and demographic factors in multivariate analysis, suggesting subtype sequence-specific K65R pathways.

Heart failure as a predictor of functional dependence in hospitalized elderly

AbstractOBJECTIVEIdentify whether Heart Failure (HF) is a predictor of functional dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) in hospitalized elderly.METHODSWe investigated medical records and assessed dependence to BADL (by the Katz Index) of 100 elderly admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital. In order to verify if HF is a predictor of functional dependence, linear regression analyzes were performed.RESULTSThe prevalence of HF was 21%; 95% of them were dependent for BADLs. Bathing was the most committed ADL. HF is a predictor of dependence in hospitalized elderlies, increasing the chance of functional decline by 5 times (95% CI, 0.94-94.48), the chance of functional deterioration by 3.5 times (95% CI, 1.28-11.66; p <0.02) and reducing 0.79 points in the Katz Index score (p <0.05).CONCLUSIONHF is a dependency predictor of ADL in hospitalized elderly, who tend to be more dependent, especially for bathing.

Adherence as a predictor of the development of class-specific resistance mutations: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. RESULTS: Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. CONCLUSION: Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 » (Gas6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and¦organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at¦admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.¦Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the "Sepsis¦Cohorte Romande". Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in¦percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.¦Results: Non-survivors (n=21) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n=73) (median¦258% vs 164%, IQR 194 and 117 respectively) (p=0.0027). Gas6 correlated positively with¦different cytokines and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area.¦In patients with septic shock (n=66), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement¦had a specificity of 67% and a sensitivity of 81% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area¦was 0.75. Positive and negative predictive values were 57% and 87%, respectively.¦Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict¦mortality in patients with septic shock. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis¦marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated. Our observation should¦be further investigated in larger prospective clinical trials.

Elevated inflammatory markers combined with positive pneumococcal urinary antigen are a good predictor of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in children.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to evaluate procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as predictors of a pneumococcal etiology in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in hospitalized children. METHODS: Children requiring hospitalization for CAP were prospectively enrolled. The following indices were determined: antibodies against pneumococcal surface proteins (anti-PLY, pneumococcal histidine triad D, pneumococcal histidine triad E, LytB and pneumococcal choline-binding protein A), viral serology, nasopharyngeal cultures and polymerase chain reaction for 13 respiratory viruses, blood pneumococcal polymerase chain reaction, pneumococcal urinary antigen, PCT and CRP. Presumed pneumococcal CAP (P-CAP) was defined as a positive blood culture or polymerase chain reaction for Streptococcus pneumoniae or as a pneumococcal surface protein seroresponse (≥2-fold increase). RESULTS: Seventy-five patients were included from which 37 (49%) met the criteria of P-CAP. Elevated PCT and CRP values were strongly associated with P-CAP with odds ratios of 23 (95% confidence interval: 5-117) for PCT and 19 (95% confidence interval: 5-75) for CRP in multivariate analysis. The sensitivity was 94.4% for PCT (cutoff: 1.5 ng/mL) and 91.9% for CRP (cutoff: 100 mg/L). A value≤0.5 ng/mL of PCT ruled out P-CAP in >90% of cases (negative likelihood ratio: 0.08). Conversely, a PCT value≥1.5 ng/mL associated with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen had a diagnostic probability for P-CAP of almost 80% (positive likelihood ratio: 4.59). CONCLUSIONS: PCT and CRP are reliable predictors of P-CAP. Low cutoff values of PCT allow identification of children at low risk of P-CAP. The association of elevated PCT or CRP with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen is a strong predictor of P-CAP.

Brain Tissue Hypoxia is a Strong Predictor of Outcome after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Independent from Elevated Intracranial Pressure

Introduction: Low brain tissue oxygen pressure (PbtO2) is associated with worse outcome in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is unclear whether brain tissue hypoxia is merely a marker of injury severity or a predictor of prognosis, independent from intracranial pressure (ICP) and injury severity. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that brain tissue hypoxia was an independent predictor of outcome in patients wih severe TBI, irrespective of elevated ICP and of the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Methods: This observational study was conducted at the Neurological ICU, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, an academic level I trauma center. Patients admitted with severe TBI who had PbtO2 and ICP monitoring were included in the study. PbtO2, ICP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP = MAP-ICP) were monitored continuously and recorded prospectively every 30 min. Using linear interpolation, duration and cumulative dose (area under the curve, AUC) of brain tissue hypoxia (PbtO2 < 15 mm Hg), elevated ICP >20 mm Hg and low CPP <60 mm Hg were calculated, and the association with outcome at hospital discharge, dichotomized as good (Glasgow Outcome Score [GOS] 4-5) vs. poor (GOS 1-3), was analyzed. Results: A total of 103 consecutive patients, monitored for an average of 5 days, was studied. Brain tissue hypoxia was observed in 66 (64%) patients despite ICP was < 20 mm Hg and CPP > 60 mm Hg (72 +/- 39% and 49 +/- 41% of brain hypoxic time, respectively). Compared with patients with good outcome, those with poor outcome had a longer duration of brain hypoxia (1.7 +/- 3.7 vs. 8.3 +/- 15.9 hrs, P<0.01), as well as a longer duration (11.5 +/- 16.5 vs. 21.6 +/- 29.6 hrs, P=0.03) and a greater cumulative dose (56 +/- 93 vs. 143 +/- 218 mm Hg*hrs, P<0.01) of elevated ICP. By multivariable logistic regression, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (OR, 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70-0.99, P=0.04), Marshall CT score (OR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.42-4.11, P<0.01), APACHE II (OR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.43, P=0.03), and the duration of brain tissue hypoxia (OR 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01-1.27; P=0.04) were all significantly associated with poor outcome. No independent association was found between the AUC for elevated ICP and outcome (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97-1.02, P=0.11) in our prospective cohort. Conclusions: In patients with severe TBI, brain tissue hypoxia is frequent, despite normal ICP and CPP, and is associated with poor outcome, independent of intracranial hypertension and the severity of cerebral and systemic injury. Our findings indicate that PbtO2 is a strong physiologic prognostic marker after TBI. Further study is warranted to examine whether PbtO2-directed therapy improves outcome in severely head-injured patients .

Hypertension is an independent predictor of mean platelet volume in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Introduction: Mean platelet volume (MPV) was shown to be significantly increased in patients with acute ischaemic stroke, especially in non-lacunar strokes. Moreover, some studies concluded that increased MPV is related to poor functional outcome after ischaemic stroke, although this association is still controversial. However, the determinants of MPV in patients with acute ischaemic stroke have never been investigated. Subjects and methods: We recorded the main demographic, clinical and laboratory data of consecutive patients with acute (admitted within 24 h after stroke onset) ischaemic stroke admitted in our Neurology Service between January 2003 and December 2008. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. The association of these parameters with MPV was investigated in univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 636 patients was included in our study. The median MPV was 10.4 ± 0.82 fL. In univariate analysis, glucose (β= 0.03, P= 0.05), serum creatinine (β= 0.002, P= 0.02), haemoglobin (β= 0.009, P < 0.001), platelet count (β=-0.002, P < 0.001) and history of arterial hypertension (β= 0.21, P= 0.005) were found to be significantly associated with MPV. In multivariate robust regression analysis, only hypertension and platelet count remained as independent determinants of MPV. Conclusions: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, platelet count and history of hypertension are the only determinants of MPV.

Maternal interactive behaviour as a predictor of preschoolers' attachment representations among full term and premature samples.

BACKGROUND: Associations between maternal sensitivity and child attachment have been established in many samples, but the strength of the association varies across populations. The sensitivity-attachment link has never been examined at the level of representations nor among premature samples. OBJECTIVE: The present study is aimed at exploring associations between maternal interactive behaviour and children's attachment representations in a population of preterm and full-term infants. METHOD: Maternal interactive behaviour was assessed at 6 and 18 months (Ainsworth Sensitivity Scale & Care Index) and children's attachment representations were measured at 42 months (Attachment Story Completion Task) in a sample of preterm (N=48) and full-term (N=23) infants. RESULTS: Maternal unresponsiveness at 6 months and sensitivity at 18 months explained 54% of the variance of disorganized attachment representations in the full-term group but was not significantly related to attachment patterns in the preterm group. CONCLUSION: These results corroborate previous work on the causes of disorganized attachment and also point to the need to consider the development of attachment differently for children evolving in specific developmental contexts. They especially stress the importance of distinguishing between risk factors associated with the mother as opposed to the child.

[(18)F]FDG-PET Standard Uptake Value as a Metabolic Predictor of Bone Marrow Response to Radiation: Impact on Acute and Late Hematological Toxicity in Cervical Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between bone marrow (BM) response to radiation and radiation dose by using (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [(18)F]FDG-PET standard uptake values (SUV) and to correlate these findings with hematological toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Seventeen women with a diagnosis of CC were treated with standard doses of CRT. All patients underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). Hemograms were obtained before and during treatment and 3 months after treatment and at last follow-up. Pelvic bone was autosegmented as total bone marrow (BMTOT). Active bone marrow (BMACT) was contoured based on SUV greater than the mean SUV of BMTOT. The volumes (V) of each region receiving 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy (V10, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) were calculated. Metabolic volume histograms and voxel SUV map response graphs were created. Relative changes in SUV before and after therapy were calculated by separating SUV voxels into radiation therapy dose ranges of 5 Gy. The relationships among SUV decrease, radiation dose, and HT were investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Mean relative pre-post-therapy SUV reductions in BMTOT and BMACT were 27% and 38%, respectively. BMACT volume was significantly reduced after treatment (from 651.5 to 231.6 cm(3), respectively; P<.0001). BMACT V30 was significantly correlated with a reduction in BMACT SUV (R(2), 0.14; P<.001). The reduction in BMACT SUV significantly correlated with reduction in white blood cells (WBCs) at 3 months post-treatment (R(2), 0.27; P=.04) and at last follow-up (R(2), 0.25; P=.04). Different dosimetric parameters of BMTOT and BMACT correlated with long-term hematological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The volumes of BMTOT and BMACT that are exposed to even relatively low doses of radiation are associated with a decrease in WBC counts following CRT. The loss in proliferative BM SUV uptake translates into low WBC nadirs after treatment. These results suggest the potential of intensity modulated radiation therapy to spare BMTOT to reduce long-term hematological toxicity.