A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Salinity tolerance in Schinopsis quebracho colorado: Seed germination, growth, ion relations and metabolic responses

Soil salinity is a major abiotic stress influencing plant productivity worldwide. Schinopsis quebracho colorado is one of the most important woody species in the Gran Chaco, an and and salt-prone subtropical biome of South America. To gain a better understanding of the physiological mechanisms that allow plant establishment under salt conditions, germination and seedling growth of S. quebracho colorado were examined under treatment with a range of NaCl solutions (germination: 0-300 mmol l(-1) NaCl; seedling growth: 0-200 mmol l(-1) NaCl). The aim was to test the hypothesis that S. quebracho colorado is a glycophite that shows different salt tolerance responses with development stage. Proline content, total soluble carbohydrates and Na+, K+ and Cl- concentrations in leaves and roots of seedlings, and the chlorophyll concentration and relative water content of leaves were measured. Germination was not affected by 100 mmol l(-1) NaCl, but decreased at a concentration of 200 mmol l(-1). At 300 mmol l(-1) NaCl, germination did not occur. Seedling growth decreased drastically with increasing salinity. An increase in NaCl from 0 to 100 mmol l(-1) also significantly reduced the leaf relative water content by 22% and increased the proline concentration by 60% in roots. In contrast, total soluble carbohydrates were not significantly affected by salinity. Seedlings showed a sodium exclusion capacity, and there was an inverse correlation between Cl- concentration and the total chlorophyll concentration. S. quebracho colorado was more tolerant to salinity during germination than in the seedling phase. The results suggest that this increased tolerance during germination might, in part, be the result of lower sensitivity to high tissue Na+ concentrations. The significant increment of proline in the roots suggests the positive role of this amino acid as a compatible solute in balancing the accumulation of Na+ and Cl- as a result of salinity. These results help clarify the physiological mechanisms that allow establishment of S. quebracho colorado on salt-affected soils in arid and semi-arid Gran Chaco. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relativizing Minimality for A-movement: phi- and theta-relations

This paper discusses two arguments raised against Hornstein`s (1999, 2001) Movement Theory of Control (MTC): Landau`s (2003) contrast between raising and passivized subject control predicates and Culicover and Jackendoff`s (2001) contrast between control and raising within nominals. I show that rather than counter-arguments, the data they present can actually be analyzed as arguments in favor of the MTC. More specifically, I argue that the puzzling contrasts discussed by these authors can be adequately accounted for within the MTC if minimality computations regarding A-movement are relativized in terms of phi- or theta-relations.

Sweeping democracy: considerations on the political relations between Janio Quadros and the National Congress

This article examines the relation between President Janio Quadros and the National Congress during the early 1960`s. Based on the analysis of the discourse of these figures, it proposes that Quadros maneuvered to diminish the legitimacy of the Congress in the public opinion, thus disrespecting its constitutional competencies. Consequently, it shows that not only did the Congress structure political mechanisms in an attempt to recover its credibility with society, but also that this dispute and its results had important effects on President Joao Goulart`s administration and even on the 1964 military coup.

Social Science; black movement; racial relations; identityThe Brazilian black movement in the social sciences (1950-2000)

When and how did the Brazilian Black movement appear in the social sciences? What are the theoretical approaches and explanations for the 20th century emergence and development? This article will address these principal issues by analyzing studies that have taken on the topic of collective black mobilization from various disciplinary vantage points, particularly, Sociology, History and Anthropology.

The Gothic scene of international relations: ghosts, monsters, terror and the sublime after September 11

Accepting Furet’s claim that events acquire meaning and significance only in the context of narratives, this article argues that a particular type of international relations narrative has emerged with greater distinction after the traumatic experience of September 11: the gothic narrative. In a sense the political rhetoric of President Bush marks the latest example of America’s fine tradition in the gothic genre that began with Edgar Allan Poe and Nathaniel Hawthorne and extends through Henry James to Stephen King. His discourse of national security, it will be shown, assumes many of the predicates of gothic narratives. The gothic scenes evoked by Bush as much as Poe involve monsters and ghosts in tenebrous atmospheres that generate fear and anxiety, where terror is a pervasive tormentor of the senses. Poe’s narratives, for example, turn on encounters with dark, perverse, seemingly indomitable, forces often entombed in haunted houses. Similarly, Bush’s post-September 11 narratives play upon fears of terrorists and rogue states who are equally dark, perverse and indomitable forces. In both cases, ineffable and potently violent and cruel forces haunt and terrorise the civilised, human world.

Predictive value for malignancy in the finding of microcalcifications on ultrasonography of thyroid nodules

Background. The am of this study was to determine the predictive value for malignancy of microcalcifications determined by ultrasonography in thyroid nodules. Methods. One hundred seventy-seven nodules were prospectively studied by ultrasonography and compared with their fine-needle aspirative biopsy. The association between the presence and type of calcification and cytologic findings was verified through the chi-square test or likelihood ratio. Results. Thirty nodules showed calcification, of which 17 had fine calcifications, 3 had fine and gross calcifications, and 10 had only coarse calcification. Seven (41.18%) of 17 fine calcified nodules were malignant on cytology, 8 (47.06%) were benign, 1 (5,88%) was indeterminate, and 1 was suspect for malignancy. We found statistical significance between the presence of fine calcifications and malignancy (p =.001) and, in the 13 malignant nodule group, 8 (61.50%) had fine calcifications. Conclusion. This study suggests that microcalcifications were highly specific for malignancy and were present in 61% of the malignant nodules. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.