Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Free surface flow past topography : a beyond-all-orders approach

The problem of steady subcritical free surface flow past a submerged inclined step is considered. The asymptotic limit of small Froude number is treated, with particular emphasis on the effect that changing the angle of the step face has on the surface waves. As demonstrated by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006), the divergence of a power series expansion in powers of the square of the Froude number is caused by singularities in the analytic continuation of the free surface; for an inclined step, these singularities may correspond to either the corners or stagnation points of the step, or both, depending on the angle of incline. Stokes lines emanate from these singularities, and exponentially small waves are switched on at the point the Stokes lines intersect with the free surface. Our results suggest that for a certain range of step angles, two wavetrains are switched on, but the exponentially subdominant one is switched on first, leading to an intermediate wavetrain not previously noted. We extend these ideas to the problem of flow over a submerged bump or trench, again with inclined sides. This time there may be two, three or four active Stokes lines, depending on the inclination angles. We demonstrate how to construct a base topography such that wave contributions from separate Stokes lines are of equal magnitude but opposite phase, thus cancelling out. Our asymptotic results are complemented by numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear equations.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

Exponential asymptotics of free surface flow due to a line source

The steady problem of free surface flow due to a submerged line source is revisited for the case in which the fluid depth is finite and there is a stagnation point on the free surface directly above the source. Both the strength of the source and the fluid speed in the far field are measured by a dimensionless parameter, the Froude number. By applying techniques in exponential asymptotics, it is shown that there is a train of periodic waves on the surface of the fluid with an amplitude which is exponentially small in the limit that the Froude number vanishes. This study clarifies that periodic waves do form for flows due to a source, contrary to a suggestion by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006, J. Fluid Mech., 567, 299--326). The exponentially small nature of the waves means they appear beyond all orders of the original power series expansion; this result explains why attempts at describing these flows using a finite number of terms in an algebraic power series incorrectly predict a flat free surface in the far field.

Towards proximity-based passenger sensing on public transport buses

While substantial research on intelligent transportation systems has focused on the development of novel wireless communication technologies and protocols, relatively little work has sought to fully exploit proximity-based wireless technologies that passengers actually carry with them today. This paper presents the real-world deployment of a system that exploits public transit bus passengers’ Bluetooth-capable devices to capture and reconstruct micro- and macro-passenger behavior. We present supporting evidence that approximately 12% of passengers already carry Bluetooth-enabled devices and that the data collected on these passengers captures with almost 80 % accuracy the daily fluctuation of actual passengers flows. The paper makes three contributions in terms of understanding passenger behavior: We verify that the length of passenger trips is exponentially bounded, the frequency of passenger trips follows a power law distribution, and the microstructure of the network of passenger movements is polycentric.

A flexible protection scheme for an islanded Multi-Microgrid

Multi-Microgrids (MMGs) have been proposed to connect distributed generators (DG), microgrids (MG), and medium-voltage (MV) loads with the distribution system. A flexible protection scheme that enables an islanded MMG to continue operation during fault conditions is yet to be developed. In this paper, a protection scheme for an islanded MMG that utilises MG controllers and communication links is proposed. The MMG model used includes two MGs connected to the distribution system. Each MG consists of diesel, wind, and photovoltaic (PV) microsources. The effectiveness of the proposed protection scheme is evaluated by simulation.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Large deflections of simply supported beams

Large deflections of simply supported beams have been studied when the trans verse loading consists of a uniformity distributed load plus a century concentrate load under the two cases, (1) the reactions are vertical. (2) the reactions are normal to the bent beam together with frictional forces. The solutions are obtained by the use of power series expansions. This method is applicable to cases of symmetrical loading in beams.

A study on the variations of optical and physical properties of aerosols over a tropical semi-arid station during grassland fire

The present paper records the results of a case study on the impact of an extensive grassland fire on the physical and optical properties of aerosols at a semi-arid station in southern India for the first time from ground based measurements using a MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer, an aethalometer and a quartz crystal microbalance impactor (QCM). Observations revealed a substantial increase in aerosol optical depth (AOD) at all wavelengths during burning days compared to normal days. High AOD values observed at shorter wavelengths suggest the dominance of accumulation mode particle loading over the study area. Daily mean aerosol size spectra shows, most of the time, power-law distribution. To characterize AOD, the Angstrom parameters (i.e., alpha and beta) were used. Wavelength exponent (1.38) and turbidity coefficient (0.21) are high during burning days compared to normal days, thereby suggesting an increase in accumulation mode particle loading. Aerosol size distribution suggested dominance of accumulation mode particle loading during burning days compared to normal days. A significant positive correlation was observed between AOD at 500 mn and water vapour and negative correlation between AOD at 500 nm and wind speed for burning and non-burning days. Diurnal variations of black carbon (BC) aerosol mass concentrations increased by a factor of similar to 2 in the morning and afternoon hours during burning period compared to normal days.

Boundary layer on a flat plate with suction

In this paper we have discussed the boundary layer on a plate with suction. The problem is solved near the leading edge as well as far downstream. A linear suction law is assumed near the leading edge for simplicity, whereas no restriction is placed on the suction law in the region downstream. An explict expression for boundary layer thickness in terms of suction speed and distance from leading edge is derived. It is found that the thickness of the boundary layer depends on the derivative of the suction speed. The skin friction also has been evaluated. Though near the leading edge a linear law of suction is assumed, the method used in the paper can be easily generalised for any other power law, for example, we may use a power series expansion for the function defining the suction velocity.

Padé approach to potential transients: Part 1. Electron transfer without and with coupling to first-order homogeneous reactions at planar electrodes

Potential transients are obtained by using “Padé approximants” (an accurate approximation procedure valid globally — not just perturbatively) for all amplitudes of concentration polarization and current densities. This is done for several mechanistic schemes under constant current conditions. We invert the non-linear current-potential relationship in the form (using the Lagrange or the Ramanujan method) of power series appropriate to the two extremes, namely near reversible and near irreversible. Transforming both into the Pad́e expressions, we construct the potential-time profile by retaining whichever is the more accurate of the two. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through illustrations which include couplings of homogeneous chemical reactions to the electron-transfer step.

Integrals of motion for one-dimensional Anderson localized systems

Anderson localization is known to be inevitable in one-dimension for generic disordered models. Since localization leads to Poissonian energy level statistics, we ask if localized systems possess `additional' integrals of motion as well, so as to enhance the analogy with quantum integrable systems. We answer this in the affirmative in the present work. We construct a set of nontrivial integrals of motion for Anderson localized models, in terms of the original creation and annihilation operators. These are found as a power series in the hopping parameter. The recently found Type-1 Hamiltonians, which are known to be quantum integrable in a precise sense, motivate our construction. We note that these models can be viewed as disordered electron models with infinite-range hopping, where a similar series truncates at the linear order. We show that despite the infinite range hopping, all states but one are localized. We also study the conservation laws for the disorder free Aubry-Andre model, where the states are either localized or extended, depending on the strength of a coupling constant. We formulate a specific procedure for averaging over disorder, in order to examine the convergence of the power series. Using this procedure in the Aubry-Andre model, we show that integrals of motion given by our construction are well-defined in localized phase, but not so in the extended phase. Finally, we also obtain the integrals of motion for a model with interactions to lowest order in the interaction.

Perturbational Finite Volume Method For The Solution of 2-D Navier-Stokes Equations on Unstructured and Structured Colocated Meshes

Based on the first-order upwind and second-order central type of finite volume( UFV and CFV) scheme, upwind and central type of perturbation finite volume ( UPFV and CPFV) schemes of the Navier-Stokes equations were developed. In PFV method, the mass fluxes of across the cell faces of the control volume (CV) were expanded into power series of the grid spacing and the coefficients of the power series were determined by means of the conservation equation itself. The UPFV and CPFV scheme respectively uses the same nodes and expressions as those of the normal first-order upwind and second-order central scheme, which is apt to programming. The results of numerical experiments about the flow in a lid-driven cavity and the problem of transport of a scalar quantity in a known velocity field show that compared to the first-order UFV and second-order CFV schemes, upwind PFV scheme is higher accuracy and resolution, especially better robustness. The numerical computation to flow in a lid-driven cavity shows that the under-relaxation factor can be arbitrarily selected ranging from 0.3 to 0. 8 and convergence perform excellent with Reynolds number variation from 102 to 104.

Limits and tradeoffs in the control of autocatalytic systems

Despite the complexity of biological networks, we find that certain common architectures govern network structures. These architectures impose fundamental constraints on system performance and create tradeoffs that the system must balance in the face of uncertainty in the environment. This means that while a system may be optimized for a specific function through evolution, the optimal achievable state must follow these constraints. One such constraining architecture is autocatalysis, as seen in many biological networks including glycolysis and ribosomal protein synthesis. Using a minimal model, we show that ATP autocatalysis in glycolysis imposes stability and performance constraints and that the experimentally well-studied glycolytic oscillations are in fact a consequence of a tradeoff between error minimization and stability. We also show that additional complexity in the network results in increased robustness. Ribosome synthesis is also autocatalytic where ribosomes must be used to make more ribosomal proteins. When ribosomes have higher protein content, the autocatalysis is increased. We show that this autocatalysis destabilizes the system, slows down response, and also constrains the system’s performance. On a larger scale, transcriptional regulation of whole organisms also follows architectural constraints and this can be seen in the differences between bacterial and yeast transcription networks. We show that the degree distributions of bacterial transcription network follow a power law distribution while the yeast network follows an exponential distribution. We then explored the evolutionary models that have previously been proposed and show that neither the preferential linking model nor the duplication-divergence model of network evolution generates the power-law, hierarchical structure found in bacteria. However, in real biological systems, the generation of new nodes occurs through both duplication and horizontal gene transfers, and we show that a biologically reasonable combination of the two mechanisms generates the desired network.

Transmission matrices and lumped parameter models for continuous systems

The use of transmission matrices and lumped parameter models for describing continuous systems is the subject of this study. Non-uniform continuous systems which play important roles in practical vibration problems, e.g., torsional oscillations in bars, transverse bending vibrations of beams, etc., are of primary importance.

A new approach for deriving closed form transmission matrices is applied to several classes of non-uniform continuous segments of one dimensional and beam systems. A power series expansion method is presented for determining approximate transmission matrices of any order for segments of non-uniform systems whose solutions cannot be found in closed form. This direct series method is shown to give results comparable to those of the improved lumped parameter models for one dimensional systems.

Four types of lumped parameter models are evaluated on the basis of the uniform continuous one dimensional system by comparing the behavior of the frequency root errors. The lumped parameter models which are based upon a close fit to the low frequency approximation of the exact transmission matrix, at the segment level, are shown to be superior. On this basis an improved lumped parameter model is recommended for approximating non-uniform segments. This new model is compared to a uniform segment approximation and error curves are presented for systems whose areas very quadratically and linearly. The effect of varying segment lengths is investigated for one dimensional systems and results indicate very little improvement in comparison to the use of equal length segments. For purposes of completeness, a brief summary of various lumped parameter models and other techniques which have previously been used to approximate the uniform Bernoulli-Euler beam is a given.