Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimativa de parâmetros populacionais do boto-cinza, Sotalia guianensis (Van Bénéden, 1864) (Cetacea, Delphinidae) na Baía de Paraty (RJ)

Estudos envolvendo estimativas de parâmetros populacionais de cetáceos baseados em dados de foto-identificação têm crescido ao longo dos anos, possibilitando estimar parâmetros como abundância, sobrevivência, probabilidade de captura e padrões de emigração. No Brasil, ainda são poucos os estudos com cetáceos que utilizam essa abordagem, contudo, eles estão aumentando, principalmente com a espécie Sotalia guianensis (van Bénéden, 1864), conhecida como boto-cinza. O objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar a sobrevivência, a probabilidade de captura, a emigração e a abundância da população de botos-cinza na Baía de Paraty (RJ; 2307S 4433W), utilizando modelos de marcação-recaptura baseados em dados de foto-identificação, entre os anos de 2005 e 2009. Os cruzeiros foram realizados entre agosto de 2005 e julho de 2009 com uma embarcação de 26 pés e motor de 200hp. As fotografias das nadadeiras dorsais foram tomadas com a utilização de uma câmera digital Canon 20D equipada com lente de zoom 100-400mm. Foram realizadas 60 saídas de campo na Baía de Paraty totalizando 172 horas de esforço no campo, sendo 72 horas de esforço fotográfico. Nas 42 saídas com observação de botos-cinza foram efetuadas 27.892 fotografias e, destas, 6.612 (23,7%) foram consideradas adequadas e utilizadas na identificação dos indivíduos de boto-cinza. Um total de 621 indivíduos foi catalogado com base em marcas permanentes na nadadeira dorsal. Os históricos individuais de captura foram analisados no programa MARK. A estimativa de sobrevivência variou de 0,82 ( 0,05) a 0,85 ( 0,05) e a probabilidade de captura variou de 0,16 ( 0,04) a 0,40 ( 0,06). O número de indivíduos marcados na população estimado pelo modelo de Jolly-Seber foi de N = 586 ( 114,66) (IC: 361-811). A proporção de animais marcados na população para o modelo de JS foi de 0,66 ( 0,03). A partir desse valor, foi possível obter uma abundância total de 884 indivíduos ( 176,8) (IC: 602-1296). A probabilidade de emigração temporária (γ``) e de permanecer fora da área (γ`) foi de 0,43 ( 0,07) e a probabilidade de captura/recaptura variou de 0,01 ( 0,01) a 0,42 ( 0,05). A probabilidade de permanência na área (1 - γ``), assim como a probabilidade de retorno da emigração temporária (1 - γ`) foi 0,57. Apesar dos movimentos significativos de indivíduos transientes, uma vez que a área amostrada é menor do que as áreas de vida que se tem estimadas para o boto-cinza, os dados indicam uma residência moderada dos botos-cinza. A abundância anual total variou de 325 para o ano de 2005 a 448 para o ano de 2009. A análise de poder determinou que seriam necessários nove anos de estudo para observar uma tendência de queda de 5% no tamanho da população. Os resultados reforçam que a Baía de Paraty abriga uma das maiores populações já estimadas para Sotalia guianensis.

Dinâmica populacional e caracterização conquiliomorfológica de Diplodon ellipticus Spix in Wagner, 1827 (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Hyriidae) da lagoa dos Caiçaras (Piraí, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil)

No presente estudo monitoramos uma população de Diplodon ellipticus Spix in Wagner, 1827 da lagoa dos Caiçaras, Piraí, Rio de Janeiro, e avaliamos alguns aspectos conquiliomorfológicos da larva e do adulto, a relação peso-comprimento, os padrões populacionais tais como crescimento, mortalidade e expectativa de vida, e o ciclo larval. Amostragens mensais foram realizadas de novembro/2012 a novembro/2013 em três pontos da lagoa. Em cada ponto, definimos uma area de 15 m2, que foi subdividida em 15 quadrados de 1m2 cada. Os bivalves foram procurados por três coletores, usando mãos e pés, totalizando 45 minutos de coleta/área. Posteriormente, foram medidos com um paquímetro em relação ao comprimento total, marcados e devolvidos a lagoa. Quinze bivalves foram coletados e analisados em laboratório durante dois anos. Os fatores abióticos (condutividade, temperatura da água, temperatura do ambiente, umidade, pH e oxigênio dissolvido) foram mensurados e amostragens do sedimento e da água foram realizados em cada ponto. Os indivíduos foram agrupados em classes de comprimento com intervalo de 2,0 mm para análise da estrutura de comprimento da população. Os parâmetros de curva de crescimento foram estimados pela rotina ELEFAN (distribuição de frequência) e pelo método de Gulland-Holt (marcação e recaptura), ambos no programa FISAT. A mortalidade foi calculada pelo método da curva de captura convertida em comprimento e a expectativa de vida foi calculada pela equação invertida de von Bertalanffy. Ao todo, 3474 bivalves foram marcados e 1849 recapturados, alguns deles mais de uma vez. O menor bivalve recapturado mediu 23,58 mm e foi recapturado 127 dias depois com 25,50 mm e o maior bivalve recapturado mediu 62,14 mm e foi recapturado 31 dias depois com 62,20 mm. Pelo método indireto analizamos 6922 bivalves com comprimentos variando de 11,37 a 62,49 mm. A maior frequência de comprimento foi encontrada em tamanhos intermediários de 44-46 mm, como foi observado em outras populações de Diplodon. A análise do crescimento, mortalidade e expectativa de vida foram similares em ambos os métodos, por isso, utilizamos em conjunto para ajustar a curva de crescimento da população. A relação peso-comprimento foi alta (r = 0,7-0,8). A avaliação do ciclo reprodutivo indica uma continuidade no desenvolvimento larval ao longo dos meses, à exceção de janeiro/2014. Contabilizamos um total de 54.617 gloquídios, havendo mais indivíduos grávidos com gloquídios (n=5) nos meses de julho e setembro de 2014. Padrão similar foi encontrado em outras espécies de bivalves de água doce, inclusive em Diplodon ellipticus no estado do Paraná. Os gloquídios maduros foram encontrados em amplitudes de temperaturas de 20,1-25,27C e acreditamos que a temperatura pode influenciar na liberação dos mesmos. Os bivalves com o maior e o menor número de gloquídios foram encontrados em novembro/2013 (n= 4759) e setembro/2014 (n= 212), respectivamente. A correlação entre o comprimento do marsúpio e o tamanho da ninhada foi testada pela primeira vez nesse gênero e foi significativa (r= 0,303 , p<0,05). As informações deste estudo são relevantes ao conhecimento da espécie e às futuras ações de gestão que tenham como objetivo preservar as espécies de Diplodon

A study of Rastrineobola argentea in the Ugandan lakes

Increased stocks of mukene Rastrineobola argentea and the subsequent interest in its fishery on Lake Victoria has been attributed to the poor performance of the endemic fishery as a result of introductions into this lake of foreign fish species Lates niloticus and Oreochromis niloticus. R. argentea now remains the only endemic fish species of economic importance ranking second to the Nile perch in this lake. Despite this importance, biological information on the species and knowledge of its fishery is scanty. Preliminary observations on the species in the Ugandan waters indicate that R. argentea feeds mainly on zooplankton (copepods) during daylight hours. Small quantities of aquatic insect larvae/pupae (chironomids and chaoborids) are also eaten mainly at night. These fishes breed just after the rainy seasons and the young eventually mature at between 43-44 mm standard length. Growth and population parameters show a rate of growth (K) of 0.92 with L of 64.5 mm S.L. Natural mortality (M) is given at 2.371 and total mortality (2) of 3.594. Two mesh size nets 10 and 5 mm are in use in the lake. The smaller mesh size which is more preferred by the artisanal fishermen however tends to capture many immature fishes. There is therefore need for a unified lakewide data collection on the species and its fishery in order to obtain more reliable biological information necessary proper management of this fast developing fishery.

Effect of available food and temperature on the growth and reproduction of Daphnia rosea

Population parameters of Daphnia rosea were studied at various concentrations of Chlorella sp. (0.25, 0.75 and 3.0 mg C l(-1)) at several temperatures (20, 25, 28, and 30 degrees C) in the laboratory. Although there were some differences in the degrees of the effects of the various temperature-food combinations, both food and temperature exerted influences on almost all of the main population parameters of D. rosea. At a water temperature of 28 degrees C, growth and reproduction were reduced, and at the lowest food level (0.25 mgC l(-1)), reproduction failed. D, rosea did not survive at 30 degrees C in spite of abundant food supply, indicating that 30 degrees C is a physiological limit. A positive relationship between body length and brood size was recognized at high and medium food levels. The slope of the regression was the highest at the highest food level and at the lowest temperature (20 degrees C). The low food level exerted a negative influence on the net reproductive rate by lowering the size of egg-bearing females, by decreasing the brood size of each size class, by decreasing the brood number per female, and by increasing the period of empty brood chamber. High water temperature (28 degrees C) also exerted a negative influence on the net reproductive rate in a similar way. For the better understanding of the key factors driving the midsummer dynamics of daphnids in the field, it may be of crucial importance to compare the population parameters of the field populations with experimentally derived values under controlled conditions of food concentration and temperature.

SOUND PROPAGATION AND SCATTERING IN BUBBLY LIQUIDS

In the ocean, natural and artificial processes generate clouds of bubbles which scatter and attenuate sound. Measurements have shown that at the individual bubble resonance frequency, sound propagation in this medium is highly attenuated and dispersive. Theory to explain this behavior exists in the literature, and is adequate away from resonance. However, due to excessive attenuation near resonance, little experimental data exists for comparison. An impedance tube was developed specifically for exploring this regime. Using the instrument, unique phase speed and attenuation measurements were made for void fractions ranging from 6.2 × 10^−5 to 2.7 × 10^−3 and bubble sizes centered around 0.62 mm in radius. Improved measurement speed, accuracy and precision is possible with the new instrument, and both instantaneous and time-averaged measurements were obtained. Behavior at resonance was observed to be sensitive to the bubble population statistics and agreed with existing theory, within the uncertainty of the bubble population parameters. Scattering from acoustically compact bubble clouds can be predicted from classical scattering theory by using an effective medium description of the bubbly fluid interior. Experimental verification was previously obtained up to the lowest resonance frequency. A novel bubble production technique has been employed to obtain unique scattering measurements with a bubbly-liquid-filled latex tube in a large indoor tank. The effective scattering model described these measurements up to three times the lowest resonance frequency of the structure.

Assessment of LD matrix measures for the analysis of biological pathway association.

Complex diseases will have multiple functional sites, and it will be invaluable to understand the cross-locus interaction in terms of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between those sites (epistasis) in addition to the haplotype-LD effects. We investigated the statistical properties of a class of matrix-based statistics to assess this epistasis. These statistical methods include two LD contrast tests (Zaykin et al., 2006) and partial least squares regression (Wang et al., 2008). To estimate Type 1 error rates and power, we simulated multiple two-variant disease models using the SIMLA software package. SIMLA allows for the joint action of up to two disease genes in the simulated data with all possible multiplicative interaction effects between them. Our goal was to detect an interaction between multiple disease-causing variants by means of their linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns with other markers. We measured the effects of marginal disease effect size, haplotype LD, disease prevalence and minor allele frequency have on cross-locus interaction (epistasis). In the setting of strong allele effects and strong interaction, the correlation between the two disease genes was weak (r=0.2). In a complex system with multiple correlations (both marginal and interaction), it was difficult to determine the source of a significant result. Despite these complications, the partial least squares and modified LD contrast methods maintained adequate power to detect the epistatic effects; however, for many of the analyses we often could not separate interaction from a strong marginal effect. While we did not exhaust the entire parameter space of possible models, we do provide guidance on the effects that population parameters have on cross-locus interaction.

Lacertid lizards as bioindicators of agricultural contamination

Apesar do recente aumento no número de estudos, os lagartos persistem como um dos grupos menos estudados em ecotoxicologia e o desconhecimento em relação à sua resposta à contaminação ambiental é enorme. A nível europeu, os lacertídeos têm sido identificados como potenciais espécies modelo para a ecotoxicologia com répteis. O principal objectivo deste projecto era determinar se um lacertídeo abundante pertencente ao género Podarcis, podia ser utilizado como bioindicador de exposição e toxicidade em zonas agrícolas. Para atingir este objectivo, utilizámos uma estratégia integrada com três fases. Numa primeira fase realizou-se um estudo de campo para documentar o tipo de exposição e parâmetros populacionais de populações de lacertídeos que ocorrem em zonas de uso intenso de pesticidas e zonas de agricultura orgânica. A segunda fase consistiu num estudo de mesocosmo em que se expuseram juvenis a um conjunto de pesticidas em condições controladas durante um período de um ano. Finalmente, a terceira fase incluiu um estudo laboratorial sobre os efeitos do clorpirifos, um dos insecticidas mais utilizado a nível global, em lagartixas. No término de cada um dos estudos, analisaram-se diversos biomarcadores e parâmetros de exposição e toxicidade a pesticidas nos diferentes indivíduos. Este conjunto abrangente de parâmetros foi analisado em diferentes níveis de organização biológica, incluindo parâmetros populacionais, bem como comportamentais, fisiológicos, bioquímicos e histológicos. Em geral, detectaram-se poucas diferenças estatísticas significativas entre as populações dos campos expostos a pesticidas e populações referência. Confirmando a dificuldade que existe em isolar os efeitos de diferentes contaminantes sobre as populações de outros factores locais, ciclos sazonais ou eventos estocásticos. As populações de P. bocagei parecem ser capazes de lidar com o nível observado de exposição a pesticidas. No entanto, indivíduos que vivem em locais expostos a pesticidas parecem estar menos adaptados ecologicamente do que aqueles que vivem em locais referência, apresentando um estado de depleção nutricional e sinais de stress metabólico. Os resultados obtidos com os animais da experiência de mesocosmo parecem reforçar estes resultados. Os animais prosperaram relativamente bem em todos os mesocosmos, independentemente do tratamento ou não com pesticidas, apresentando uma ampla gama de comportamentos naturais. A abordagem laboratorial confirmou P. bocagei como um valioso indicador de exposição sub-letal a doses ambientalmente realistas de clorpirifos. De acordo, com o conjunto d resultados obtidos, P. bocagei parece ser um bioindicador adequado de exposição a pesticidas.

Studies on Some Aspects of Landings,Utilization and Export of Commercially Important Cephalopods

In the present study two aspects of cephalopod fishery such as (i) landings and (ii) utilization including export of cephalopods from Indian are dealt with. Under the topic landings, craft, both traditional and mechanized and fishing techniques employed for capturing cephalopods are discussed. General trend in cephalopod landing in India and particularly south west coast, species composition, description and geographic distribution of important species of cuttle fishes, squids and octopus and the distribution and abundance of cephalopods along the continental shelf of the south west coast are also discussed. Some biological aspects like population parameters, maturation and spawning, food and feeding of the two representive species of cuttle fishes and squid viz, Sepia pharaonis and Loligo duvauceli are studied.Under utilization, general handling and processing of various frozen cephalopods products for exports and commercial operation in a typical plant are studied. The export of cephalopod products since its commencement is studied in detail and market strategy for enhancing the export are suggested.

Studies On The Biology And Fishery Of The Fishes Of The Family Priacanthidae (Pisces : Perciformes) Of Indian Waters

Preliminary investigations revealed that 3. hamrur is the predominant species along the east and west coasts of India while other species are sparsely distributed and occur sporadically. In the present investigation, aspects such as population parameters, breeding and feeding biology, fishery etc. of _l:. hamrur of the north east coast of India (Fig.1) are dealt with. Studies on the distribution, abundance and stock size of priacanthids all along the Indian waters were undertaken. Taxonomic studies of the priacanthid species encountered during the study from the Indian waters is also attempted

Flächenhafte und funktionale Analyse kleinräumiger standortbedingter Variationen der Grünlandvegetation und -produktivität

Zur Abbildung heterogener Standorteigenschaften und Ertragspotenziale werden zunehmend flächenhafte Daten nachgefragt. Insbesondere für Grünland, das häufig durch ausgeprägte Standortheterogenität gekennzeichnet ist, ergeben sich hohe Anforderungen an die Wiedergabequalität, denn die realen Verhältnisse sollen in praktikabler Weise möglichst exakt abgebildet werden. Außerdem können flächenhafte Daten genutzt werden, um Zusammenhänge zwischen teilflächenspezifischen Standorteigenschaften und Grünlandaspekten detaillierter zu analysieren und bisher nicht erkannte Wechselbeziehungen nachzuweisen. Für mitteleuropäisches Grünland lagen zu Beginn dieser Arbeit derartige räumliche Untersuchungen nicht oder nur in Teilaspekten vor. Diese Arbeit befasste sich mit der Analyse von Wirkungsbeziehungen zwischen Standort- und Grünlandmerkmalen auf einer im Nordhessischen Hügelland (Deutschland) weitgehend praxisüblicher bewirtschafteten 20 ha großen Weidefläche. Erhoben wurden als Standortfaktoren die Geländemorphologie, die Bodentextur, die Grundnährstoffgehalten sowie als Parameter des Grünlandbestandes die botanische Zusammensetzung, der Ertrag und die Qualitätsparameter. Sie wurden sowohl in einem 50 m-Raster ganzflächig, als auch auf drei 50x50 m großen Teilflächen in erhöhter Beprobungsdichte (6,25 m-Rasterweite) aufgenommen. Die relevanten Fragestellungen zielen auf die räumliche und zeitliche Variabilität von Grünlandbestandesparametern innerhalb von Grünlandflächen sowie deren Abhängigkeit von den Standortfaktoren. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt war die Überprüfung der Frage, ob die reale Variabilität der Zielvariablen durch die Interpolierung der punktuell erfassten Daten wiedergegeben werden kann. Die Beziehungen zwischen Standort- und Grünlandmerkmalen wurden mit monokausalen und multivariaten Ansätzen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse ließen, unabhängig vom Jahreseinfluss, bereits bestimmte Zusammenhänge zwischen botanischer Zusammensetzung und Standort, auch auf dem untersuchten kleinen Maßstab innerhalb der Grünlandfläche, finden. Demzufolge können unterschiedliche Areale abgegrenzt und charakterisiert werden, die als Grundlage für Empfehlungen zur Ausweisung von Arealen zur teilspezifischen Bewirtschaftung erarbeitet wurden. Die Validierung der interpolierten Daten zeigte, dass die 50-m Rasterbeprobung nur eine begrenzte Wiedergabe der räumlichen Variabilität ermöglicht. Inwieweit derartige Beziehungen quantitativ genauer beschreibbar sind, bleibt auf Grund der verbliebenen unerklärten Varianz im Datensatz dieser Studie offen.

Establecimiento, mantenimiento y productividad de una colonia de laboratorio de Lutzomyia spinicrassa Morales, Osorno-Mesa, Osorno y Hoyos, 1969 (Diptera: Psychodidae) en Colombia

El flebótomo Lutzomyia spinicrassa es vector de Leishmania braziliensis y tiene amplia distribución en plantaciones de café en Colombia y Venezuela. Metodología: Se estableció una colonia en condiciones de laboratorio a partir de 600 hembras de L. spinicrassa capturadas en el campo y mantenidas a temperatura de 23º C y humedad relativa de 70%. El tiempo de desarrollo desde huevo hasta adulto osciló entre 58 y 78 días, en promedio 11 semanas. Se compararon parámetros poblacionales de la especie obtenidos a partir de cinco generaciones sucesivas mantenidas en grupos, con una generación criada individualmente. Resultados: Se obtuvieron los siguientes parámetros en cada condición experimental: tasa neta de reproducción (6,92 y 7 hembras por hembra por generación), tasa intrínseca de incremento poblacional (0,17 y 0,18 hembras por hembra por semana) y tasa finita de incremento poblacional (1,06 y 1,19 individuos por hembra por semana). Conclusión: Estos datos sugieren que la colonia de L. spinicrassa tuvo un incremento constante durante las seis generaciones analizadas.

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models