Tendências Espaciais e Temporais da Epidemia da AIDS em maiores de 50 Anos no Município de Niterói - RJ

A síndrome de imunodeficiência adquirida (AIDS) é um problema de saúde pública que alcançou grandes proporções. Na ausência de uma vacina eficaz ou tratamento efetivo para a doença, esforços têm ser concentrados na prevenção. As políticas de saúde adotadas pelo governo brasileiro têm resultado em estabilização da enfermidade no país na faixa etária mais jovem, muito embora essa tendência não venha acontecendo nos outros grupos etários mais velhos. Verificar a incidência da AIDS em indivíduos idosos, no município de Niterói, RJ, de acordo com sexo, idade, período e coorte de nascimento de 1982-2011, além de analisar a dinâmica espacial da epidemia de AIDS em idosos (indivíduos com 60 anos ou mais) no estado do Rio de Janeiro no período de 1997-2011, são os objetivos deste estudo. Os dados da população por idade, sexo e grupo, foram obtidos a partir de: censos populacionais, contagem da população (1996), projeções intercensitárias, informações do Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, de Mortalidade e de Controle de Exames Laboratoriais. As taxas de incidência por 100 000 foram calculadas para as unidades geográficas através da contagem do número de novos casos de AIDS em indivíduos com 60 anos ou mais e tamanho da população do município no mesmo grupo etário. Para avaliar a dependência espacial das taxas foi calculado o índice de Moran global. Moran Mapas foram construídos para mostrar regimes de correlação espacial potencialmente distintos em diferentes subregiões. Distribuições de probabilidade e método Bayes empírico foram aplicados para a correção das taxas de incidência da AIDS. Ocorreram 575 casos de AIDS em residentes de Niterói com ≥50 anos de idade. Tendência crescente de taxas de incidência ao longo do tempo foi detectada em ambos os sexos. No estudo da dinâmica espacial da incidência da AIDS em idosos, Rio de Janeiro, no período de 1997 a 2011, as taxas entre homens e mulheres permaneceram flutuantes ao longo de todo o período. Não foi possível detectar correlação significativa global, usando o índice global de Moran. Na costa sudeste do Estado, onde se localizam as grandes áreas metropolitanas (Rio de Janeiro e Niterói), observaram-se grupos de cidades com taxas de até 20 casos por 100 000 hab. Esta concentração se torna mais pronunciada em períodos subsequentes, quando parece ocorrer propagação gradual da epidemia da costa sul até o norte do Rio de Janeiro.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of China: A caveat about inferences drawn from ancient DNA

The decipherment of the meager information provided by short fragments of ancient mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is notoriously difficult but is regarded as a most promising way toward reconstructing the past from the genetic perspective. By haplogroup-specific hypervariable segment (HVS) motif search and matching or near-matching with available modem data sets, most of the ancient mtDNAs can be tentatively assigned to haplogroups, which are often subcontinent specific. Further typing for mtDNA haplogroup-diagnostic coding region polymorphisms, however, is indispensable for establishing the geographic/genetic affinities of ancient samples with less ambiguity. In the present study, we sequenced a fragment (similar to 982 bp) of the mtDNA control region in 76 Han individuals from Taian, Shandong, China, and we combined these data with previously reported samples from Zibo and Qingdao, Shandong. The reanalysis of two previously published ancient mtDNA population data sets from Linzi (same province) then indicates that the ancient populations had features in common with the modem populations from south China rather than any specific affinity to the European mtDNA pool. Our results highlight that ancient mtDNA data obtained under different sampling schemes and subject to potential contamination can easily create the impression of drastic spatiotemporal changes in the genetic structure of a regional population during the past few thousand years if inappropriate methods of data analysis are employed.

乡镇级人口统计数据空间化研究

Population data which collected and saved according to administrative region is a kind of statistical data. As a traditional method of spatial data expression, average distribution in every administrative region brings population data on a low spatial and temporal precision. Now, an accurate population data with high spatial resolution is becoming more and more important in regional planning, environment protection, policy making and rural-urban development. Spatial distribution of population data is becoming more important in GIS study area. In this article, the author reviewed the progress of research on spatial distribution of population. Under the support of GIS, correlative geographical theories and Grid data model, Remote Sensing data, terrain data, traffic data, river data, resident data, and social economic statistic were applied to calculate the spatial distribution of population in Fujian province, which includes following parts: (1) Simulating of boundary at township level. Based on access cost index, land use data, traffic data, river data, DEM, and correlative social economic statistic data, the access cost surface in study area was constructed. Supported by the lowest cost path query and weighted Voronoi diagram, DVT model (Demarcation of Villages and Towns) was established to simulate the boundary at township level in Fujian province. (2) Modeling of population spatial distribution. Based on the knowledge in geography, seven impact factors, such as land use, altitude, slope, residential area, railway, road, and river were chosen as the parameters in this study. Under the support of GIS, the relations of population distribution to these impact factors were analyzed quantificationally, and the coefficients of population density on pixel scale were calculated. Last, the model of population spatial distribution at township level was established through multiplicative fusion of population density coefficients and simulated boundary of towns. (3) Error test and analysis of population spatial distribution base on modeling. The author not only analyzed the numerical character of modeling error, but also its spatial distribution. The reasons of error were discussed.

人口空间数据误差分析研究

Spatial population data, obtained through the pixeling method, makes many related researches more convenient. However, the limited methods of precision analysis prevent the spread of spatial distribution methods and cumber the application of the spatial population data. This paper systematically analyzes the different aspects of the spatial population data precision, and re-calculates them with the reformed method, which makes breakthrough for the spread of the pixeling method and provides support and reference for the application of spatial population data. The paper consists of the following parts: (2) characters of the error; (2) origins of the error; (3) advancement on the calculating methods of the spatial population data. In the first place, based on the analysis of the error trait, two aspects of the spatial population data precision are characterized and analyzed: numerical character and spatial distributing character. The later one, placed greater emphasis on in this paper, is depicted in two spatial scales: county and town. It is always essential and meaningful to the research in this paper that spatial distribution is as important as numerical value in analyzing error of the spatial distributed data. The result illustrates that the spatial population data error appears spatially in group, although it is random in the aspect of data statistics, all of that shows there lies spatial systematic error. Secondly, this paper comes to conclude and validate the lineal correlation between the residential land area (from 1:50000 map and taken as real area) and population. Meanwhile, it makes particular analysis on the relationship between the residential land area, which is obtained from the land use map and the population in three different spatial scales: village, town and county, and makes quantitative description of the residential density variation in different topological environment. After that, it analyzes the residential distributing traits and precision. With the consideration of the above researches, it reaches the conclusion that the error of the spatial distributed population is caused by a series of factors, such as the compactness of the residents, loss of the residential land, the population density of the city. Eventually, the paper ameliorates the method of pixeling the population data with the help of the analysis on error characters and causes. It tests 2-class regionalization based on the 1-class regionalization of China, and resorts the residential data from the land use map. In aid of GIS and the comprehensive analysis of various data source, it constructs models in each 2-class district to calculate spatial population data. After all, LinYi Region is selected as the study area. In this area, spatial distributing population is calculated and the precision is analyzed. All it illustrates is that new spatial distributing population has been improved much. The research is fundamental work. It adopts large amounts of data in different types and contains many figures to make convincing and detailed conclusions.

Impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on smoking behaviour, risk perception & stigmatisation

The Republic of Ireland became the first European country to implement nationwide smoke-free workplace legislation. Aims: To determine prevalence of smoking among bar workers and estimate the impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on their smoking behaviour to that of a comparable general population sample. To approximate the influence of tobacco control measures on risk perception of second-hand smoke (SHS) among the general population. To explore the de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and the potential increased stigmatisation of smokers and their smoking. Methods: Prevalence estimates and behavioural changes were examined among a random sample of bar workers before and 1 year after the smoke-free legislation; comparisons made with a general population sub-sample. Changes in risk knowledge related to SHS exposure were based on general population data. Qualitative interviews were conducted among a purposive sample of smokers and non-smokers four years after the implementation of the legislation. Results: Smoking prevalence was extremely high among bar workers. Smoking prevalence dropped in bar workers and significantly among the general population 1 year post ban while cigarette consumption dropped significantly among bar workers. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smoker of risk associated with SHS exposure reduced. Lack of understanding of the risk of ear infections in children posed by SHS exposure was notable. Evidence for advanced de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and intensification of stigma because of the introduction of the legislation was dependent on many factors, quality of smoking facilities played a key role. Conclusions: Ireland’s smoke-free legislation was associated with a drop in prevalence and cigarette consumption. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smokers of the risk posed by SHS exposure reduced however the risk of ear infections in children needs to be effectively disseminated. The proliferation of ‘good’ smoking areas may diminish the potential to reduce smoking behaviour and de-normalise smoking.

Humoral response against heat shock proteins and other mycobacterial antigens after intravesical treatment with bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) in patients with superficial bladder cancer

Few studies have analysed the antibody response during intravesical BCG immunotherapy for superficial bladder cancer. We have examined the evolution in serum antibody response against several heat shock proteins (hsp), including the recombinant mycobacterial hsp65 and the native protein P64 from BCG, GroEL from Escherichia coli (hsp60 family), recombinant mycobacterial hsp70 and the E. coli DnaK (hsp70 family), against purified protein derivative of tuberculin (PPD) and the AG85 complex of Mycobacterium bovis BCG, as well as against tetanus toxoid in 42 patients with a superficial bladder tumour, 28 treated with six intravesical BCG instillations and 14 patients used as controls. We also analysed the lymphoproliferative response of peripheral blood mononuclear cells against PPD in this population. Data of antibody responses at 6 weeks post BCG were available in all 28 patients, and at 4 month follow up in 17 patients. All patients who demonstrated a significant increase in IgC antibodies against PPD at 4 months follow up had a significant increase already at 6 weeks of follow up. In contrast, IgG antibodies against hsp increased significantly from 6 weeks to 4 months post- treatment. A significant increase in IgG antibodies against PPD, hsp65, P64, GroEL, and hsp70 at 4 months follow up was observed in 10/17, 8/17, 10/17, 4/17 and 8/17 patients. Native P64 protein elicited a higher antibody response than recombinant mycobacterial hsp65. No increase in antibody response was observed against Dnak from E. coli, against AG85 or tetanus toxoid after BCG therapy. An increase in IgG antibodies against P64 at 4 months follow up compared with pretreatment values was found to be a significant predictor of tumour recurrence (P < 0.01). Further studies with a larger number of patients are needed to confirm the value of the antibody response against P64 as a clinical independent prognostic factor.

Environmental exposure to toxicants mixtures from a multi-purpose estuary: perspectives for a biomonitoring study in Portugal

This work was focused on a multi-purpose estuarine environment (river Sado estuary, SW Portugal) around which a number of activities (e.g., fishing, farming, heavy industry, tourism and recreational activities) coexist with urban centres with a total of about 200 000 inhabitants. Based on previous knowledge of the hazardous chemicals within the ecosystem and their potential toxicity to benthic species, this project intended to evaluate the impact of estuarine contaminants on the human and ecosystem health. An integrative methodology based on epidemiological, analytical and biological data and comprising several lines of evidence, namely, human contamination pathways, human health effects, consumption of local produce, estuarine sediments, wells and soils contamination, effects on commercial benthic organisms, and genotoxic potential of sediments, was used. The epidemiological survey confirmed the occurrence of direct and indirect (through food chain) exposure of the local population to estuarine contaminants. Furthermore, the complex mixture of contaminants (e.g., metals, pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) trapped in the estuary sediments was toxic to human liver cells exposed in vitro, causing cell death, oxidative stress and genotoxic effects that might constitute a risk factor for the development of chronic-degenerative diseases, on the long term. Finally, the integration of data from several endpoints indicated that the estuary is moderately impacted by toxicants that affect also the aquatic biota. Nevertheless, the human health risk can only be correctly assessed through a biomonitoring study including the quantification of contaminants (or metabolites) in biological fluids as well as biomarkers of early biological effects (e.g., biochemical, genetic and omics-based endpoints) and genetic susceptibility in the target population. Data should be supported by a detailed survey to assess the impact of the contaminated seafood and local farm products consumption on human health and, particularly, on metabolic diseases or cancer development.

Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Abortion trends 1990-1999 in a Swiss region and determinants of abortion recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: To assess age- and nationality-specific trends in abortion rates over the last decade, and to describe women's characteristics, identifying risk factors for repeated abortion. METHODS: From 1990-1999, the Health Department of Canton Vaud (Switzerland) received 13'857 abortion requests from residents aged 14-49. Population data were obtained to compute rates. RESULTS: Both the number of abortions (1400 annually) as well as their rate (8.9 per thousand women [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3-10.5]) were stable over the decade in question. The rate of abortion for foreign women, especially from ex-Yugoslavia and Africa, was twice that for Swiss women. Half of the requests came from single women, 43% had a low education level, and half were childless. The main reason for requesting termination of pregnancy was psychosocial (93%). The mean gestational age was 7.7 weeks (SD +/- 2.3), but 96% of requests were submitted before 12 weeks. Sixty-three percent of women reported that they had used no contraception, 36% the condom and 17% the pill. Among requests, the adjusted risk of repeated abortion (22% of abortion candidates) was greater among divorced/separated/widowed women (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.5-2.4]), unemployed women (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.5-2.1]), and those who had not attended university (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.1-2.2]). CONCLUSIONS: Although Swiss law only permitted abortion under strict conditions, this procedure was widely available in Vaud, which nevertheless has one of the lowest rates worldwide. Efforts must be intensified to ensure universal access to family planning services, especially for foreign women and adolescents. Professionals should also target "repeaters" to provide personalised counselling.

Vascular dysfunction in children conceived by assisted reproductive technologies: underlying mechanisms and future implications.

Epidemiological studies in humans have demonstrated a relationship between pathological events during fetal development and increased cardiovascular risk later in life and have led to the so called "Fetal programming of cardiovascular disease hypothesis". The recent observation of generalised vascular dysfunction in young apparently healthy children conceived by assisted reproductive technologies (ART) provides a novel and potentially very important example of this hypothesis. This review summarises recent data in ART children demonstrating premature subclinical atherosclerosis in the systemic circulation and pulmonary vascular dysfunction predisposing to exaggerated hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension. These problems appear to be related to the ART procedure per se. Studies in ART mice demonstrating premature vascular aging and arterial hypertension further demonstrate the potential of ART to increase cardiovascular risk and have allowed to unravel epigenetic alterations of the eNOS gene as an underpinning mechanism. The roughly 25% shortening of the life span in ART mice challenged with a western style high-fat-diet demonstrates the potential importance of these alterations for the long-term outcome. Given the young age of the ART population, data on cardiovascular endpoints will not be available before 20 to 30 years from now. However, already now cohort studies of the ART population are needed to early detect cardiovascular alterations with the aim to prevent or at least optimally treat cardiovascular complications. Finally, a debate needs to be engaged on the future of ART and the consequences of its exponential growth for public health.

Développement, application et validation d’une nouvelle stratégie de mesure des indicateurs biologiques de l’exposition aux pyréthrinoïdes et aux pyréthrines chez l’humain

Les pyréthrinoïdes et les pyréthrines sont des insecticides neurotoxiques auxquels on attribue également des effets néfastes sur les systèmes immunitaire, hormonal et reproducteur. Ils sont abondamment utilisés en agriculture, mais aussi en horticulture, en extermination et dans le traitement d’infestations parasitaires humaines et animales (gale, poux). Il y a donc un intérêt en santé environnementale à connaître l’ampleur de l’exposition humaine à ces pesticides. La mesure des métabolites urinaires des pyréthrinoïdes et des pyréthrines apparaît une approche de choix pour arriver à cette fin puisqu’elle permet, en théorie, d’obtenir un portrait global de l’exposition. Or,traditionnellement et par soucis de simplicité les concentrations volumiques ou ajustées pour la créatinine) de ces biomarqueurs dans des urines ponctuelles sont déterminées, mais l’effet de l’utilisation de ces unités sur la validité des estimations de dose quotidienne absorbée n’a jamais été vérifié. L’objectif général de cette thèse était donc de développer, appliquer et valider une nouvelle stratégie de mesure et d’analyse de biomarqueurs pour améliorer la précision et la fiabilité des évaluations de l’exposition individuelles et populationnelles aux pyréthrinoïdes et pyréthrines. Les objectifs spécifiques étaient : i) de caractériser l’exposition humaine à ces contaminants en région urbaine et rurale au Québec et ii) de comparer la validité de la nouvelle stratégie de mesure et d’analyse de biomarqueurs urinaires proposée avec les autres méthodes plus usuelles utilisées pour estimer l’exposition individuelle et populationnelle et les doses absorbées de pyréthrinoïdes. Des adultes et des enfants, recrutés dans la population de l’Île de Montréal et de la Montérégie ont recueilli leurs urines pendant une période d’au moins douze heures et complété un questionnaire documentant les sources potentielles d’exposition. Les quantités de métabolites de pyréthrinoïdes et pyréthrines (pmol) mesurées dans les urines ont été ajustées pour une période de douze heures exactement et pour le poids corporel. Les quantités excrétées en région urbaine ont été comparées à celles excrétées en région rurale et les données individuelles et populationnelles ont été comparées à celles qui auraient été obtenues si des concentrations volumiques ou ajustées pour la créatinine avaient été mesurées. Les résultats montrent que l’exposition à ces pesticides est ubiquiste puisque plus de 90% des participants excrétaient les principaux métabolites de pyréthrinoïdes et pyréthrines à un niveau supérieur au seuil de détection analytique. Les résultats suggèrent que l’alimentation pourrait être à l’origine de ce niveau de base puisque les autres sources d’exposition connues n’ont été que rarement rapportées. Au Québec, l’exposition en milieu rural apparaissait légèrement plus importante qu’en milieu urbain et certains facteurs d’exposition, comme l’utilisation de pesticides domestiques, ont été rapportés plus fréquemment en milieu rural. Enfin, il a été démontré que la mesure des concentrations volumiques ou ajustées pour la créatinine de biomarqueurs est une approche qui peut entraîner des biais importants (jusqu’à 500% d’erreur et plus) en particulier lors de l’évaluation de l’exposition individuelle. Il est évident que les autorités de santé publique et de santé environnementale employant des biomarqueurs urinaires afin d’évaluer l’exposition aux pyréthrinoïdes et aux pyréthrines (ainsi qu’à d’autres molécules ayant des demi-vies d’élimination similaire)devraient diriger leurs efforts vers la mesure des quantités excrétées pendant une période d’au moins douze heures pour obtenir un portrait le plus valide possible de l’exposition. Il serait aussi souhaitable de mieux documenter la toxicocinétique de ces molécules chez l’humain afin d’établir avec une plus grande confiance la relation entre les quantités excrétées de biomarqueurs et les doses absorbées de ces contaminants.

Étude de l’effet des médicaments antiplaquettaires sur la fonction plaquettaire : de la variabilité de réponse à l’effet rebond

En inhibant la formation de caillots dans le sang, les médicaments antiplaquettaires diminuent de façon importante le risque d’événements ischémiques aigus. Cependant, une sous-population de patients souffrant de maladie coronarienne présente une inhibition inadéquate de la fonction plaquettaire malgré la prise quotidienne d’acide acétylsalicylique (AAS). Le premier volet de cette thèse démontre qu’une régénération plaquettaire accélérée pourrait expliquer en partie la variabilité dans la persistance de l’effet antiplaquettaire de l’AAS chez certains sujets souffrant de maladie coronarienne. Ces données suggèrent qu’une augmentation de la fréquence d’administration d’AAS d’une à deux fois par jour pourrait être bénéfique chez ces sujets. Des méta-analyses ont suggéré qu’une réponse plaquettaire inadéquate à l’AAS pourrait augmenter le risque d’événements ischémiques récurrents. La nature rétrospective de ces analyses ne permet pas d’établir la causalité. Dans le deuxième volet de cette thèse, les résultats d’une étude prospective visant à comparer la pertinence clinique de 6 tests de fonction plaquettaire fréquemment utilisés pour évaluer la réponse plaquettaire à l’AAS est présentée. Les résultats démontrent qu’aucun des tests de fonction plaquettaire couramment employés ne prédit la survenue d’événements ischémiques aigus chez des patients souffrant de maladie coronarienne stable. Toutefois, la cessation de la prise d’AAS est un prédicteur important d’événements thrombotiques. La cessation de médicaments antiplaquettaires a souvent été associée à la survenue d’événements thrombotiques dans les jours suivant l’interruption. À savoir si la survenue de ces événements est attribuable uniquement au retrait d’un médicament protecteur ou plutôt à une sensibilisation plaquettaire, constitue un débat d’actualité. Dans le troisième volet de cette thèse, des données sont présentées démontrant que la cessation de clopidogrel après la période recommandée par les lignes directrices actuelles provoque une sensibilisation des plaquettes nouvellement formées aux stimuli plaquettaires physiologiques. Ces résultats encouragent la recherche sur différentes modalités pour atténuer le risque thrombotique accru chez ces patients souffrant de maladie coronarienne. En conclusion, cet ouvrage présente des études visant à identifier les sous-populations de patients qui sont plus à risque de complications cardiovasculaires récurrentes. Dans ce contexte, la personnalisation de traitement est une avenue thérapeutique prometteuse, où chaque patient pourra recevoir un traitement ciblé en fonction de ses besoins et de ses contre-indications. Ce changement de paradigme d’une thérapie empirique issue d’études de grande envergure sur des données populationnelles à une thérapie ajustée aux besoins individuels représente un vaste champ de recherche, où la majorité des découvertes sont à faire.

Categorization in IT and PFC: Model and Experiments

In a recent experiment, Freedman et al. recorded from inferotemporal (IT) and prefrontal cortices (PFC) of monkeys performing a "cat/dog" categorization task (Freedman 2001 and Freedman, Riesenhuber, Poggio, Miller 2001). In this paper we analyze the tuning properties of view-tuned units in our HMAX model of object recognition in cortex (Riesenhuber 1999) using the same paradigm and stimuli as in the experiment. We then compare the simulation results to the monkey inferotemporal neuron population data. We find that view-tuned model IT units that were trained without any explicit category information can show category-related tuning as observed in the experiment. This suggests that the tuning properties of experimental IT neurons might primarily be shaped by bottom-up stimulus-space statistics, with little influence of top-down task-specific information. The population of experimental PFC neurons, on the other hand, shows tuning properties that cannot be explained just by stimulus tuning. These analyses are compatible with a model of object recognition in cortex (Riesenhuber 2000) in which a population of shape-tuned neurons provides a general basis for neurons tuned to different recognition tasks.

Predicting microbial pollution concentrations in UK rivers in response to land use change

The Water Framework Directive has caused a paradigm shift towards the integrated management of recreational water quality through the development of drainage basin-wide programmes of measures. This has increased the need for a cost-effective diagnostic tool capable of accurately predicting riverine faecal indicator organism (FIO) concentrations. This paper outlines the application of models developed to fulfil this need, which represent the first transferrable generic FIO models to be developed for the UK to incorporate direct measures of key FIO sources (namely human and livestock population data) as predictor variables. We apply a recently developed transfer methodology, which enables the quantification of geometric mean presumptive faecal coliforms and presumptive intestinal enterococci concentrations for base- and high-flow during the summer bathing season in unmonitored UK watercourses, to predict FIO concentrations in the Humber river basin district. Because the FIO models incorporate explanatory variables which allow the effects of policy measures which influence livestock stocking rates to be assessed, we carry out empirical analysis of the differential effects of seven land use management and policy instruments (fiscal constraint, production constraint, cost intervention, area intervention, demand-side constraint, input constraint, and micro-level land use management) all of which can be used to reduce riverine FIO concentrations. This research provides insights into FIO source apportionment, explores a selection of pollution remediation strategies and the spatial differentiation of land use policies which could be implemented to deliver river quality improvements. All of the policy tools we model reduce FIO concentrations in rivers but our research suggests that the installation of streamside fencing in intensive milk producing areas may be the single most effective land management strategy to reduce riverine microbial pollution.