Risk homeostasis theory in simulated environments

This thesis has two aims. First, it sets out to develop an alternative methodology for the investigation of risk homeostasis theory (RHT). It is argued that the current methodologies of the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic accident data both have their limitations, and that the newer 'game' type simulation exercises are also, but for different reasons, incapable of testing RHT predictions. The alternative methodology described here is based on the simulation of physical risk with intrinsic reward rather than a 'points pay-off'. The second aim of the thesis is to examine a number of predictions made by RHT through the use of this alternative methodology. Since the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic data are both ill-suited to the investigation of that part of RHT which deals with the role of utility in determining risk-taking behaviour in response to a change in environmental risk, and since the concept of utility is critical to RHT, the methodology reported here is applied to the specific investigation of utility. Attention too is given to the question of which behavioural pathways carry the homeostasis effect, and whether those pathways are 'local' to the nature of the change in environmental risk. It is suggested that investigating RHT through this new methodology holds a number of advantages and should be developed further in an attempt to answer the RHT question. It is suggested too that the methodology allows RHT to be seen in a psychological context, rather than the statistical context that has so far characterised its investigation. The experimental findings reported here are in support of hypotheses derived from RHT and would therefore seem to argue for the importance of the individual and collective target level of risk, as opposed to the level of environmental risk, as the major determinant of accident loss.

Perils of managing the service profit chain:the role of time lags and feedback loops

The tendency of managers to focus on short-term results rather than on sustained company success is of particular importance to retail marketing managers, because marketing activities involve expenditures which may only pay off in the longer term. To address the issue of myopic management, our study shows how the complexity of the service profit chain (SPC) can cause managers to make suboptimal decisions. Hence, our paper departs from past research by recognizing that understanding the temporal interplay between operational investments, employee satisfaction, customer satisfaction, and operating profit is essential to achieving sustained success. In particular, we intend to improve understanding of the functioning of the SPC with respect to time lags and feedback loops. Results of our large-scale longitudinal study set in a multi-outlet retail chain reveal time-lag effects between operational investments and employee satisfaction, as well as between customer satisfaction and performance. These findings, along with evidence of a negative interaction effect of employee satisfaction on the relationship between current performance and future investments, show the substantial risk of mismanaging the SPC. We identify specific situations in which the dynamic approach leads to superior marketing investment decisions, when compared to the conventional static view of the SCP. These insights provide valuable managerial guidance for effectively managing the SPC over time. © 2012 New York University.

Orders for sale:the creditor and the family home : part one

This, the first part of a two-part article on the discretionary powers of the courts to order a sale of the family home at the request of a secured creditor, considers whether the enactment of the Trusts of Land and Appointment of Trustees Act 1996 s.15 has led judicial decision making to favour the interests of the co-owner of the home. Reviews cases heard since the coming into force of the Act, looking at the factors taken into account when balancing the interests of the creditor and debtor, including the continued need to have a family home, the availability of other assets to pay off the debt, the size of the debt and the likelihood of repayment.

A Differential Game Described by a Hyperbolic System

An antagonistic differential game of hyperbolic type with a separable linear vector pay-off function is considered. The main result is the description of all ε-Slater saddle points consisting of program strategies, program ε-Slater maximins and minimaxes for each ε ∈ R^N > for this game. To this purpose, the considered differential game is reduced to find the optimal program strategies of two multicriterial problems of hyperbolic type. The application of approximation enables us to relate these problems to a problem of optimal program control, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, with a scalar pay-off function. It is found that the result of this problem is not changed, if the players use positional or program strategies. For the considered differential game, it is interesting that the ε-Slater saddle points are not equivalent and there exist two ε-Slater saddle points for which the values of all components of the vector pay-off function at one of them are greater than the respective components of the other ε-saddle point.

Essays on the Dynamic Decisions of Homeowners and Retailers

Urban problems have several features that make them inherently dynamic. Large transaction costs all but guarantee that homeowners will do their best to consider how a neighborhood might change before buying a house. Similarly, stores face large sunk costs when opening, and want to be sure that their investment will pay off in the long run. In line with those concerns, different areas of Economics have made recent advances in modeling those questions within a dynamic framework. This dissertation contributes to those efforts.

Chapter 2 discusses how to model an agent’s location decision when the agent must learn about an exogenous amenity that may be changing over time. The model is applied to estimating the marginal willingness to pay to avoid crime, in which agents are learning about the crime rate in a neighborhood, and the crime rate can change in predictable (Markovian) ways.

Chapters 3 and 4 concentrate on location decision problems when there are externalities between decision makers. Chapter 3 focuses on the decision of business owners to open a store, when its demand is a function of other nearby stores, either through competition, or through spillovers on foot traffic. It uses a dynamic model in continuous time to model agents’ decisions. A particular challenge is isolating the contribution of spillovers from the contribution of other unobserved neighborhood attributes that could also lead to agglomeration. A key contribution of this chapter is showing how we can use information on storefront ownership to help separately identify spillovers.

Finally, chapter 4 focuses on a class of models in which families prefer to live

close to similar neighbors. This chapter provides the first simulation of such a model in which agents are forward looking, and shows that this leads to more segregation than it would have been observed with myopic agents, which is the standard in this literature. The chapter also discusses several extensions of the model that can be used to investigate relevant questions such as the arrival of a large contingent high skilled tech workers in San Francisco, the immigration of hispanic families to several southern American cities, large changes in local amenities, such as the construction of magnet schools or metro stations, and the flight of wealthy residents from cities in the Rust belt, such as Detroit.

Audio-Visual Information Processing across different age groups

People possess different sensory modalities to detect, interpret, and efficiently act upon various events in a complex and dynamic environment (Fetsch, DeAngelis, & Angelaki, 2013). Much empirical work has been done to understand the interplay of modalities (e.g. audio-visual interactions, see Calvert, Spence, & Stein, 2004). On the one hand, integration of multimodal input as a functional principle of the brain enables the versatile and coherent perception of the environment (Lewkowicz & Ghazanfar, 2009). On the other hand, sensory integration does not necessarily mean that input from modalities is always weighted equally (Ernst, 2008). Rather, when two or more modalities are stimulated concurrently, one often finds one modality dominating over another. Study 1 and 2 of the dissertation addressed the developmental trajectory of sensory dominance. In both studies, 6-year-olds, 9-year-olds, and adults were tested in order to examine sensory (audio-visual) dominance across different age groups. In Study 3, sensory dominance was put into an applied context by examining verbal and visual overshadowing effects among 4- to 6-year olds performing a face recognition task. The results of Study 1 and Study 2 support default auditory dominance in young children as proposed by Napolitano and Sloutsky (2004) that persists up to 6 years of age. For 9-year-olds, results on privileged modality processing were inconsistent. Whereas visual dominance was revealed in Study 1, privileged auditory processing was revealed in Study 2. Among adults, a visual dominance was observed in Study 1, which has also been demonstrated in preceding studies (see Spence, Parise, & Chen, 2012). No sensory dominance was revealed in Study 2 for adults. Potential explanations are discussed. Study 3 referred to verbal and visual overshadowing effects in 4- to 6-year-olds. The aim was to examine whether verbalization (i.e., verbally describing a previously seen face), or visualization (i.e., drawing the seen face) might affect later face recognition. No effect of visualization on recognition accuracy was revealed. As opposed to a verbal overshadowing effect, a verbal facilitation effect occurred. Moreover, verbal intelligence was a significant predictor for recognition accuracy in the verbalization group but not in the control group. This suggests that strengthening verbal intelligence in children can pay off in non-verbal domains as well, which might have educational implications.

Characterization of innovative kerfless cutting of monocrystalline silicon wafers for photovoltaic applications

Nowadays renewable energies are a hot research topic, and the goal is to improve cell efficiency and reduce production costs, aiming to make the use of photovoltaics increasingly widespread and convenient. Monocrystalline silicon solar cells are leaders in the photovoltaic market. However, market-established cutting techniques produce a consistent amount of material waste when cutting ingots into wafers. The“Stress-induced LIft-Off Method” (SLIM) is emerging in recent years as an alternative, more sustainable separation technique, which reduces material loss and can lead to obtaining increasingly thinner wafers, further reducing the required amount of silicon. This thesis presents the micro-characterization of the separated wafers with the SLIM technique. The wafers were obtained with a two-step procedure. First, a layer of defects was induced in the silicon using ultra-short medium-infrared laser pulses. Then, the material was deposited on one of the sides and induced stress in the silicon, such as to further weaken it. In this way, only rapid cooling is required for detachment to occur. The obtained results indicate that the SLIM-cut technique halves the minority carriers’ lifetime. There is no amorphization, crystal disorder or high-pressure phases. However, changes in the Raman spectra suggest that tensile stress may have been produced on these surface layers by the separation process. The AFM topography highlights surface irregularities, which may be removed with a polishing step. The surface also shows laser-modified regions, which are evident in SEM images, but not in AFM topographies, suggesting a charging effect due to electron bombardment. Lastly, the electrical characterization by conductive AFM lacks any changes in the conductive behaviour of the material where the laser-modified areas should be located. In conclusion, these preliminary results are promising to carry out a systematic characterization of this technique of this innovative SLIM technique.

Is the person trade-off a valid method for allocating health care resources? Some caveats

The Person Trade-Off (PTO) is a methodology aimed at measuring thesocial value of health states. The rest of methodologies would measure individualutility and would be less appropriate for taking resource allocation decisions.However few studies have been conducted to test the validity of the method.We present a pilot study with this objective. The study is based on theresult of interviews to 30 undergraduate students in Economics. We judgethe validity of PTO answers by their adequacy to three hypothesis of rationality.First, we show that, given certain rationality assumptions, PTO answersshould be predicted from answers to Standard Gamble questions. This firsthypothesis is not verified. The second hypothesis is that PTO answersshould not vary with different frames of equivalent PTO questions. Thissecond hypothesis is also not verified. Our third hypothesis is that PTOvalues should predict social preferences for allocating resources betweenpatients. This hypothesis is verified. The evidence on the validity of themethod is then conflicting.

Off-resonance angiography: a new method to depict vessels--phantom and rabbit studies.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the utility of inversion recovery with on-resonant water suppression (IRON) in combination with injection of the long-circulating monocrystalline iron oxide nanoparticle (MION)-47 for contrast material-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) angiography. MATERIALS AND METhods: Experiments were approved by the institutional animal care committee. Eleven rabbits were imaged at baseline before injection of a contrast agent and then serially 5-30 minutes, 2 hours, 1 day, and 3 days after a single intravenous bolus injection of 80 micromol of MION-47 per kilogram of body weight (n = 6) or 250 micromol/kg MION-47 (n = 5). Conventional T1-weighted MR angiography and IRON MR angiography were performed on a clinical 3.0-T imager. Signal-to-noise and contrast-to-noise ratios were measured in the aorta of rabbits in vivo. Venous blood was obtained from the rabbits before and after MION-47 injection for use in phantom studies. RESULTS: In vitro blood that contained MION-47 appeared signal attenuated on T1-weighted angiograms, while characteristic signal-enhanced dipolar fields were observed on IRON angiograms. In vivo, the vessel lumen was signal attenuated on T1-weighted MR angiograms after MION-47 injection, while IRON supported high intravascular contrast by simultaneously providing positive signal within the vessels and suppressing background tissue (mean contrast-to-noise ratio, 61.9 +/- 12.4 [standard deviation] after injection vs 1.1 +/- 0.4 at baseline, P < .001). Contrast-to-noise ratio was higher on IRON MR angiograms than on conventional T1-weighted MR angiograms (9.0 +/- 2.5, P < .001 vs IRON MR angiography) and persisted up to 24 hours after MION-47 injection (76.2 +/- 15.9, P < .001 vs baseline). CONCLUSION: IRON MR angiography in conjunction with superparamagnetic nanoparticle administration provides high intravascular contrast over a long time and without the need for image subtraction.

Adoption of catamaran fishing method for mukene (Rastrineobola argentea) in off shore waters of Lake Victoria

This report presents information on the development of a system for commercial harvesting of Rastrineobola argentea (Mukene) in Lake Victoria. The objective of this work is to develop a system for commercial Harvesting of Mukene with: •Targeted output above 1,000 kg per working night per boat. •Target area to be off shore waters of Lake Victoria. •Drying under hygienic conditions for production of high quality poultry and animal feeds. •Supply to be continuous with predicable prices

A non-invasive method for silencing gene transcription in honeybees maintained under natural conditions

in the Apis mellifera post-genomic era, RNAi protocols have been used in functional approaches. However, sample manipulation and invasive methods such as injection of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) can compromise physiology and survival. To circumvent these problems, we developed a non-invasive method for honeybee gene knockdown, using a well-established vitellogenin RNAi system as a model. Second instar larvae received dsRNA for vitellogenin (dsVg-RNA) in their natural diet. For exogenous control, larvae received dsRNA for GFP (dsGFP-RNA). Untreated larvae formed another control group. Around 60% of the treated larvae naturally developed until adult emergence when 0.5 mu g of dsVg-RNA or dsGFP-RNA was offered while no larvae that received 3.0 mu g of dsRNA reached pupal stages. Diet dilution did not affect the removal rates. Viability depends not only on the delivered doses but also on the internal conditions of colonies. The weight of treated and untreated groups showed no statistical differences. This showed that RNAi ingestion did not elicit drastic collateral effects. Approximately 90% of vitellogenin transcripts from 7-day-old workers were silenced compared to controls. A large number of samples are handled in a relatively short time and smaller quantities of RNAi molecules are used compared to invasive methods. These advantages culminate in a versatile and a cost-effective approach. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Willingness to pay for conservation of the Asian elephant in Sri Lanka: A contingent valuation study

Results from a CVM survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, are reported. Face– to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model was constructed to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ WTP for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants, and consequently to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on the farming fields. We find that beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the HEC affected areas) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. This suggests that there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine Sri Lanka’s optimal elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense.

Willingness to pay for different degrees of abundance of elephants

This paper presents an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to determine how the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of Asian elephants varies with hypothetical variations in their population. Results from a CVM survey of a sample of urban residents in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka are used for this purpose. We find, consistent with the basic principles of consumer demand theory, the marginal change in the respondents’ WTP amounts is positive but appears to diminish in parallel to the increases in the current wild elephant population (CWEP). In contrast to theoretical expectations, however, we find that the WTP for preserving this species increases at an increasing rate in relation to decreases in the CWEP. This is probably because respondents perceive that extinction becomes more imminent as the abundance of the elephant is reduced and therefore it becomes more urgent to act. However, this adds a new complication to the interpretation of the WTP findings.