Simulating the effects of dominance and epistasis on selection response in the CIMMYT wheat breeding program using QuCim

Plant breeders use many different breeding methods to develop superior cultivars. However, it is difficult, cumbersome, and expensive to evaluate the performance of a breeding method or to compare the efficiencies of different breeding methods within an ongoing breeding program. To facilitate comparisons, we developed a QU-GENE module called QuCim that can simulate a large number of breeding strategies for self-pollinated species. The wheat breeding strategy Selected Bulk used by CIMMYT's wheat breeding program was defined in QuCim as an example of how this is done. This selection method was simulated in QuCim to investigate the effects of deviations from the additive genetic model, in the form of dominance and epistasis, on selection outcomes. The simulation results indicate that the partial dominance model does not greatly influence genetic advance compared with the pure additive model. Genetic advance in genetic systems with overdominance and epistasis are slower than when gene effects are purely additive or partially dominant. The additive gene effect is an appropriate indicator of the change in gene frequency following selection when epistasis is absent. In the absence of epistasis, the additive variance decreases rapidly with selection. However, after several cycles of selection it remains relatively fixed when epistasis is present. The variance from partial dominance is relatively small and therefore hard to detect by the covariance among half sibs and the covariance among full sibs. The dominance variance from the overdominance model can be identified successfully, but it does not change significantly, which confirms that overdominance cannot be utilized by an inbred breeding program. QuCim is an effective tool to compare selection strategies and to validate some theories in quantitative genetics.

Using Rasch modeling to re-evaluate three scales related to physical activity: Enjoyment, perceived benefits and perceived barriers

Studies suggest that enjoyment, perceived benefits and perceived barriers may be important mediators of physical activity. However, the psychometric properties of these scales have not been assessed using Rasch modeling. The purpose of this study was to use Rasch modeling to evaluate the properties of three scales commonly used in physical activity studies: the Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale, the Benefits of Physical Activity Scale and the Barriers to Physical Activity Scale. The scales were administered to 378 healthy adults, aged 25–75 years (50% women, 62% Whites), at the baseline assessment for a lifestyle physical activity intervention trial. The ConQuest software was used to assess model fit, item difficulty, item functioning and standard error of measurement. For all scales, the partial credit model fit the data. Item content of one scale did not adequately cover all respondents. Response options of each scale were not targeting respondents appropriately, and standard error of measurement varied across the total score continuum of each scale. These findings indicate that each scale's effectiveness at detecting differences among individuals may be limited unless changes in scale content and response format are made.

Modeling communication services for rapid realization

The availability and pervasiveness of new communication services, such as mobile networks and multimedia communication over digital networks, has resulted in strong demands for approaches to modeling and realizing customized communication systems. The stovepipe approach used to develop today's communication applications is no longer effective because it results in a lengthy and expensive development cycle. To address this need, the Communication Virtual Machine (CVM) technology has been developed by researchers at Florida International University. The CVM technology includes the Communication Modeling Language (CML) and the platform, CVM, to model and rapidly realize communication models. ^ In this dissertation, we investigate the basic communication primitives needed to capture and specify an end-user's requirements for communication-intensive applications, and how these specifications can be automatically realized. To identify the basic communication primitives, we perform a feature analysis on a set of communication-intensive scenarios from the healthcare domain. Based on the feature analysis, we define a new version of CML that includes the meta-model definition (abstract syntax and static semantics) and a partial behavior model (operational semantics). To validate our CML definition, we present a case study that shows how one of the scenarios from the healthcare domain is modeled and automatically realized. ^

The effect of dual -language instruction on academic achievement as measured by the SAT: An evaluation of the "International Studies Program" of Miami -Dade County Public Schools

This study investigated the influence that receiving instruction in two languages, English and Spanish, had on the performance of students enrolled in the International Studies Program (delayed partial immersion model) of Miami Dade County Public Schools on a standardized test in English, the Stanford Achievement Test, eighth edition, for three of its sections, Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computations, and Mathematics Applications.^ The performance of the selected IS program/Spanish section cohort of students (N = 55) on the SAT Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computation, and Mathematics Application along four consecutive years was contrasted with that of a control group of comparable students selected within the same feeder pattern where the IS program is implemented (N = 21). The performance of the group was also compared to the cross-sectional achievement patterns of the school's corresponding feeder pattern, region, and district.^ The research model for the study was a variation of the "causal-comparative" or "ex post facto design" sometimes referred to as "prospective". After data were collected from MDCPS, t-tests were performed to compare IS-Spanish students SAT performance for grades 3 to 6 for years 1994 to 1997 to control group, feeder pattern, region and district norms for each year for Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computation, and Mathematics Applications. Repeated measures ANOVA and Tukey's tests were calculated to compare the mean percentiles of the groups under study and the possible interactions of the different variables. All tests were performed at the 5% significance level.^ From the analyses of the tests it was deduced that the IS group performed significantly better than the control group for all the three measures along the four years. The IS group mean percentiles on the three measures were also significantly higher than those of the feeder pattern, region, and district. The null hypotheses were rejected and it was concluded that receiving instruction in two languages did not negatively affect the performance of IS program students on tests taken in English. It was also concluded that the particular design the IS program enhances the general performance of participant students on Standardized tests.^ The quantitative analyses were coupled with interviews from teachers and administrators of the IS program to gain additional insight about different aspects of the implementation of the program at each particular school. ^

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Características das ondas a jusante de dissipador por ressalto hidráulico

A ação das ondas nas margens de rios provoca o desprendimento de material, tornandoas vulneráveis a erosão. O trabalho apresenta uma descrição de vários experimentos realizados em um modelo reduzido parcial de um vertedouro em degraus com um canal a jusante, instalado no Laboratório de Obras Hidráulicas (IPH/UFRGS). Diferentes condições de vazão e submergência foram consideradas, com o objetivo de estudar as características principais de ondas, tais como, altura e período, que atuam sobre as margens em áreas de influencia de aproveitamento hidrelétrico. Uma analise temporal e espectral foram realizadas com base nos dados medidos e apresentada neste trabalho. Os resultados das análises indicam, em uma primeira abordagem, que as características principais das ondas estão mais relacionadas com a vazão do que com a submergência.

Modelling the relationship between biomechanics and performance of young sprinting swimmers

The aim of this study was to compute a swimming performance confirmatory model based on biomechanical parameters. The sample included 100 young swimmers (overall: 12.3 ± 0.74 years; 49 boys: 12.5 ± 0.76 years; 51 girls: 12.2 ± 0.71 years; both genders in Tanner stages 1-2 by self-report) participating on a regular basis in regional and national-level events. The 100 m freestyle event was chosen as the performance indicator. Anthropometric (arm span), strength (throwing velocity), power output (power to overcome drag), kinematic (swimming velocity) and efficiency (propelling efficiency) parameters were measured and included in the model. The path-flow analysis procedure was used to design and compute the model. The anthropometric parameter (arm span) was excluded in the final model, increasing its goodness-of-fit. The final model included the throw velocity, power output, swimming velocity and propelling efficiency. All links were significant between the parameters included, but the throw velocity-power output. The final model was explained by 69% presenting a reasonable adjustment (model's goodness-of-fit; x(2)/df = 3.89). This model shows that strength and power output parameters do play a mediator and meaningful role in the young swimmers' performance.

Incentive based policies on climate change: taxes and tradable emssions permits

The reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) plays a central role in the environmental policies considered by countries for implementation not only at its own level but also at supranational levels. This thesis is dedicated to investigate some aspects of two of the most relevant climate change policies. The first part is dedicated to emission permit markets and the second part to optimal carbon taxes. On emission permit markets we explore the strategic behavior of oligopolistic firms operating in polluting industrial sectors that are regulated by cap and trade systems. Our aim is to identify how market power influences the main results obtained under perfect competition assumptions and to understand how actions taken in one market affects the outcome of the other related market. A partial equilibrium model is developed for this purpose with specific abatement cost functions. In Chapter 2 we use the model to explain some of the most relevant literature results. In Chapter 3 the model is used to analyze different oligopolistic structures in the product market under the assumption of competitive permits market. There are two significant findings. Firstly, under the assumption of a Stackelberg oligopoly, firms have no incentives for lobbying in order to manipulate permit prices up, as they have under Cournot competition...

A multidimensionalidade da adaptação escolar na pré-adolescência

A presente investigação procura fomentar a reflexão e a compreensão do fenómeno da adaptação escolar. Partindo da exploração da literatura e de um conjunto de pressupostos teóricos de ordem desenvolvimental e ecológica, foi concetualmente delineado e testado um modelo multidimensional de adaptação escolar na pré-adolescência. O modelo examina principalmente dimensões sociais, mas também a dimensão académica e o nível socioeconómico familiar, propondo uma visão integrada da adaptação escolar. O estudo empírico desenvolveu-se junto de 706 estudantes pré-adolescentes e avaliou as perceções do próprio estudante e as perceções dos professores e pares acerca da competência social dos estudantes. O teste empírico ao Modelo de Adaptação Escolar evidencia um ajustamento global razoável, suportando as associações preconizadas entre as componentes da competência social e entre estas componentes sociais e a realização académica e o nível socioeconómico e cultural da família. Estes resultados sublinham a necessidade de considerar múltiplas facetas na avaliação e promoção da adaptação escolar, reconhecendo-se que esta engloba especialmente conexões entre a competência social e realização académica do estudante. Estes resultados serão ainda alvo de reflexão e discussão, sendo extraídas implicações para a investigação, teoria e intervenção.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Partial protection against chlamydial reproductive tract infection by a recombinant major outer membrane protein/CpG/cholera toxin intranasal vaccine in the guinea pig Chlamydia cavaie model

Chlamydia trachomatis is a major cause of sexually transmitted diseases worldwide. There currently is no vaccine to protect against chlamydial infection of the female reproductive tract. Vaccine development has predominantly involved using the murine model, however infection of female guinea pigs with Chlamydia caviae more closely resembles chlamydial infection of the human female reproductive tract, and presents a better model to assess potential human chlamydial vaccines. We immunised female guinea pigs intranasally with recombinant major outer membrane protein (r-MOMP) combined with CpG-10109 and cholera toxin adjuvants. Both systemic and mucosal immune responses were elicited in immunised animals. MOMP-specific IgG and IgA were present in the vaginal mucosae, and high levels of MOMP-specific IgG were detected in the serum of immunised animals. Antibodies from the vaginal mucosae were also shown to be capable of neutralising C. caviae in vitro. Following immunisation, animals were challenged intravaginally with a live C. caviae infection of 102 inclusion forming units. We observed a decrease in duration of infection and a significant (p<0.025) reduction in infection load in r-MOMP immunised animals, compared to animals immunised with adjuvant only. Importantly, we also observed a marked reduction in upper reproductive tract (URT) pathology in r-MOMP immunised animals. Intranasal immunisation of female guinea pigs with r-MOMP was able to provide partial protection against C. caviae infection, not only by reducing chlamydial burden but also URT pathology. This data demonstrates the value of using the guinea pig model to evaluate potential chlamydial vaccines for protection against infection and disease pathology caused by C. trachomatis in the female reproductive tract.

A porcine deep dermal partial thickness burn model with hypertrophic scarring

We developed a reproducible model of deep dermal partial thickness burn injury in juvenile Large White pigs. The contact burn is created using water at 92 degrees C for 15s in a bottle with the bottom replaced with plastic wrap. The depth of injury was determined by a histopathologist who examined tissue sections 2 and 6 days after injury in a blinded manner. Upon creation, the circular wound area developed white eschar and a hyperaemic zone around the wound border. Animals were kept for 6 weeks or 99 days to examine the wound healing process. The wounds took between 3 and 5 weeks for complete re-epithelialisation. Most wounds developed contracted, purple, hypertrophic scars. On measurement, the thickness of the burned skin was approximately 1.8 times that of the control skin at week 6 and approximately 2.2 times thicker than control skin at 99 days after injury. We have developed various methods to assess healing wounds, including digital photographic analysis, depth of organising granulation tissue, immunohistochemistry, electron microscopy and tensiometry. Immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy showed that our porcine hypertrophic scar appears similar to human hypertrophic scarring. The development of this model allows us to test and compare different treatments on burn wounds.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.