Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Emergence of a New Swine H3N2 and Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza A Virus Reassortant in Two Canadian Animal Populations, Mink and Swine

A swine H3N2 (swH3N2) and pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (pH1N1) influenza A virus reassortant (swH3N2/ pH1N1) was detected in Canadian swine at the end of 2010. Simultaneously, a similar virus was also detected in Canadian mink based on partial viral genome sequencing. The origin of the new swH3N2/pH1N1 viral genes was related to the North American swH3N2 triple-reassortant cluster IV (for hemagglutinin [HA] and neuraminidase [NA] genes) and to pH1N1 for all the other genes (M, NP, NS, PB1, PB2, and PA). Data indicate that the swH3N2/pH1N1 virus can be found in several pigs that are housed at different locations.

Generation of candidate human influenza vaccine strains in cell culture: rehearsing the European response to an H7N1 pandemic threat

Background: Although H5N1 avian influenza viruses pose the most obvious imminent pandemic threat, there have been several recent zoonotic incidents involving transmission of H7 viruses to humans. Vaccines are the primary public health defense against pandemics, but reliance on embryonated chickens eggs to propagate vaccine and logistic problems posed by the use of new technology may slow our ability to respond rapidly in a pandemic situation. Objectives: We sought to generate an H7 candidate vaccine virus suitable for administration to humans whose generation and amplification avoided the use of eggs. Methods: We generated a suitable H7 vaccine virus by reverse genetics. This virus, known as RD3, comprises the internal genes of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 with surface antigens of the highly pathogenic avian strain A/Chicken/Italy/13474/99 (H7N1). The multi-basic amino acid site in the HA gene, associated with high pathogenicity in chickens, was removed. Results: The HA modification did not alter the antigenicity of the virus and the resultant single basic motif was stably retained following several passages in Vero and PER. C6 cells. RD3 was attenuated for growth in embryonated eggs, chickens, and ferrets. RD3 induced an antibody response in infected animals reactive against both the homologous virus and other H7 influenza viruses associated with recent infection by H7 viruses in humans. Conclusions: This is the first report of a candidate H7 vaccine virus for use in humans generated by reverse genetics and propagated entirely in mammalian tissue culture. The vaccine has potential use against a wide range of H7 strains.

Receptor binding profiles of avian influenza virus hemagglutinin subtypes on human cells as a predictor of pandemic potential

The host adaptation of influenza virus is partly dependent on the sialic acid (SA) isoform bound by the viral hemagglutinin (HA). Avian influenza viruses preferentially bind the α-2,3 SA and human influenza viruses the α-2,6 isoform. Each isoform is predominantly associated with different surface epithelial cell types of the human upper airway. Using recombinant HAs and human tracheal airway epithelial cells in vitro and ex vivo, we show that many avian HA subtypes do not adhere to this canonical view of SA specificity. The propensity of avian viruses to adapt to human receptors may thus be more widespread than previously supposed.

Knowledge and attitudes of health care workers from intensive care units regarding nosocomial transmission of influenza: a study on the immediate pre-pandemic period

The transmission of influenza in health care settings is a major threat to patients, especially those with severe diseases. The attitude of health care workers (HCWs) may influence the transmission of countless infections. The current study aimed to quantify knowledge and identify attitudes of HCWs involved in intensive care units (ICUs) regarding the risk of nosocomial influenza transmission. A questionnaire was applied through interviews to HCWs who worked in one of the five ICUs from a teaching hospital. Questions about influenza were deliberately dispersed among others that assessed several infectious agents. Forty-two HCWs were interviewed: nine physicians, ten nurses and 23 nursing technicians or auxiliaries. Among the 42 HCWs, 98% were aware of the potential transmission of influenza virus in the ICUs, but only 31% would indicate droplet precautions for patients with suspected infection. Moreover, only 31% of them had been vaccinated against influenza in the last campaign (2008). Nursing technicians or auxiliaries were more likely to have been vaccinated, both by univariate and multivariable analysis. When asked about absenteeism, only 10% of the study subjects stated that they would not go to work if they had an influenza-like illness. Those findings suggest that, in non-pandemic periods, influenza control in hospitals requires strategies that combine continuous education with changes in organizational culture.

Immunogenicity and safety of seasonal and 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccines for patients with autoimmune diseases: a prospective, monocentre trial on 199 patients

The 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza outbreak represented a theoretical risk for patients with autoimmune diseases (AID), especially those immunosuppressed. This study was undertaken to evaluate immunogenicity and tolerance of seasonal (SFV) and A/H1N1 flu vaccines (HFV) in AID patients.

Use of early corticosteroid therapy on ICU admission in patients affected by severe pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection.

INTRODUCTION Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection, although relatively common, remains controversial. METHODS Prospective, observational, multicenter study from 23 June 2009 through 11 February 2010, reported in the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) H1N1 registry. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with completed outcome data were analyzed. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 155 (70.5%). Sixty-seven (30.5%) of the patients died in ICU and 75 (34.1%) whilst in hospital. One hundred twenty-six (57.3%) patients received corticosteroid therapy on admission to ICU. Patients who received corticosteroids were significantly older and were more likely to have coexisting asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic steroid use. These patients receiving corticosteroids had increased likelihood of developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) [26.2% versus 13.8%, p < 0.05; odds ratio (OR) 2.2, confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5]. Patients who received corticosteroids had significantly higher ICU mortality than patients who did not (46.0% versus 18.1%, p < 0.01; OR 3.8, CI 2.1-7.2). Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors identified that early use of corticosteroids was not significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.4] but was still associated with an increased rate of HAP (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-4.8, p < 0.05). When only patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were analyzed, similar results were observed. CONCLUSIONS Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection did not result in better outcomes and was associated with increased risk of superinfections.

A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

Attitudes to living and working in pandemic conditions among emergency prehospital medical care personnel

Introduction: Little is known about the risk perceptions and attitudes of healthcare personnel, especially of emergency prehospital medical care personnel, regarding the possibility of an outbreak or epidemic event. Problem: This study was designed to investigate pre-event knowledge and attitudes of a national sample of the emergency prehospital medical care providers in relation to a potential human influenza pandemic, and to determine predictors of these attitudes. Methods: Surveys were distributed to a random, cross-sectional sample of 20% of the Australian emergency prehospital medical care workforce (n = 2,929), stratified by the nine services operating in Australia, as well as by gender and location. The surveys included: (1) demographic information; (2) knowledge of influenza; and (3) attitudes and perceptions related to working during influenza pandemic conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of pandemic-related risk perceptions. Results: Among the 725 Australian emergency prehospital medical care personnel who responded, 89% were very anxious about working during pandemic conditions, and 85% perceived a high personal risk associated with working in such conditions. In general, respondents demonstrated poor knowledge in relation to avian influenza, influenza generally, and infection transmission methods. Less than 5% of respondents perceived that they had adequate education/training about avian influenza. Logistic regression analyses indicate that, in managing the attitudes and risk perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care staff, particular attention should be directed toward the paid, male workforce (as opposed to volunteers), and on personnel whose relationship partners do not work in the health industry. Conclusions: These results highlight the potentially crucial role of education and training in pandemic preparedness. Organizations that provide emergency prehospital medical care must address this apparent lack of knowledge regarding infection transmission, and procedures for protection and decontamination. Careful management of the perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care personnel during a pandemic is likely to be critical in achieving an effective response to a widespread outbreak of infectious disease.

The risk of airborne influenza transmission in passenger cars

Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells-Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59 to 99.9% for a 90 min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.

Setting up a platform for plant-based influenza virus vaccine production in South Africa

Background During a global influenza pandemic, the vaccine requirements of developing countries can surpass their supply capabilities, if these exist at all, compelling them to rely on developed countries for stocks that may not be available in time. There is thus a need for developing countries in general to produce their own pandemic and possibly seasonal influenza vaccines. Here we describe the development of a plant-based platform for producing influenza vaccines locally, in South Africa. Plant-produced influenza vaccine candidates are quicker to develop and potentially cheaper than egg-produced influenza vaccines, and their production can be rapidly upscaled. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of producing a vaccine to the highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 virus, the most generally virulent influenza virus identified to date. Two variants of the haemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein gene were synthesised for optimum expression in plants: these were the full-length HA gene (H5) and a truncated form lacking the transmembrane domain (H5tr). The genes were cloned into a panel of Agrobacterium tumefaciens binary plant expression vectors in order to test HA accumulation in different cell compartments. The constructs were transiently expressed in tobacco by means of agroinfiltration. Stable transgenic tobacco plants were also generated to provide seed for stable storage of the material as a pre-pandemic strategy. Results For both transient and transgenic expression systems the highest accumulation of full-length H5 protein occurred in the apoplastic spaces, while the highest accumulation of H5tr was in the endoplasmic reticulum. The H5 proteins were produced at relatively high concentrations in both systems. Following partial purification, haemagglutination and haemagglutination inhibition tests indicated that the conformation of the plant-produced HA variants was correct and the proteins were functional. The immunisation of chickens and mice with the candidate vaccines elicited HA-specific antibody responses. Conclusions We managed, after synthesis of two versions of a single gene, to produce by transient and transgenic expression in plants, two variants of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus HA protein which could have vaccine potential. This is a proof of principle of the potential of plant-produced influenza vaccines as a feasible pandemic response strategy for South Africa and other developing countries.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

Trade, travel and disease : the role of law in pandemic preparedness

In 2009 the world experienced an influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 virus. While the pandemic was milder then expected, it nonetheless provided the world with an opportunity to do real-time testing of pandemic preparedness. This paper examines the threats to human health posed by infectious diseases and the challenges for the global community in development of effective surveillance systems for emerging infectious diseases. In 2005 a new revised version of the International Health Regulations (IHR) was adopted. The requirements of the IHR (2005) are outlined and considered in light of the constraints facing resource-poor countries. Finally, the paper addresses the role of domestic law-making in supporting public health preparedness and articulates a number of ethical principles that should be considered when developing new public health laws.

Pandemic planning as risk management : how fared the Australian Federation?

The role of law in managing public health challenges such as influenza pandemics poses special challenges. This article reviews Australian plans in the context of the H1N1 09 experience to assess whether risk management was facilitated or inhibited by the "number" of levels or phases of management, the degree of prescriptive detail for particular phases, the number of plans, the clarity of the relationship between them, and the role of the media. Despite differences in the content and form of the plans at the time of the H1N1 09 emerging pandemic, the article argues that in practice, the plans proved to be responsive and robust bases for managing pandemic risks. It is suggested that this was because the plans proved to be frameworks for coordination rather than prescriptive straitjackets, to be only one component of the regulatory response, and to offer the varied tool box of possible responses, as called for by the theory of responsive regulation. Consistent with the principle of subsidiarity, it is argued that the plans did not inhibit localised responses such as selective school closures or rapid responses to selected populations such as cruise ship passengers.