Effect of Wealth on Health Care Seeking Behavior And Out of Pocket Health Expenditure in Malawi

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Nitriding in cathodic cage of stainless steel AISI 316: influence of sample position

R.R.M. de Sousa et al. Nitriding in cathodic cage of stainless steel AISI 316: Influence of sample position. Vacuum, [s.l.], n.83, 2009. Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 out.2010.

Assessment of the quality of sample labelling for clinical research

Objective: To assess the quality of the labels for clinical trial samples through current regulations, and to analyze its potential correlation with the specific characteristics of each sample. Method: A transversal multicenter study where the clinical trial samples from two third level hospitals were analyzed. The eleven items from Directive 2003/94/EC, as well as the name of the clinical trial and the dose on the label cover, were considered variables for labelling quality. The influence of the characteristics of each sample on labelling quality was also analyzed. Outcome: The study included 503 samples from 220 clinical trials. The mean quality of labelling, understood as the proportion of items from Appendix 13, was of 91.9%. Out of these, 6.6% did not include the name of the sample in the outer face of the label, while in 9.7% the dose was missing. The samples with clinical trial-type samples presented a higher quality (p < 0.049), blinding reduced their quality (p = 0.017), and identification by kit number or by patient increased it (p < 0.01). The promoter was the variable which introduced the highest variability into the analysis. Conclusions: The mean quality of labelling is adequate in the majority of clinical trial samples. The lack of essential information in some samples, such as the clinical trial code and the period of validity, is alarming and might be the potential source for dispensing or administration errors.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Methane seep carbonates yield clumped isotope signatures out of equilibrium with formation temperatures

Methane cold seep systems typically exhibit extensive buildups of authigenic carbonate minerals, resulting from local increases in alkalinity driven by methane oxidation. Here, we demonstrate that modern seep authigenic carbonates exhibit anomalously low clumped isotope values (Delta(47)), as much as similar to 0.2 parts per thousand lower than expected values. In modern seeps, this range of disequilibrium translates into apparent temperatures that are always warmer than ambient temperatures, by up to 50 degrees C. We examine various mechanisms that may induce disequilibrium behaviour in modern seep carbonates, and suggest that the observed values result from several factors including kinetic isotopic effects during methane oxidation, mixing of inorganic carbon pools, pH effects and rapid precipitation. Ancient seep carbonates studied here also exhibit potential disequilibrium signals. Ultimately, these findings indicate the predominance of disequilibrium clumped isotope behaviour in modern cold seep carbonates that must be considered when characterizing environmental conditions in both modern and ancient cold seep settings.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.

Pre-service teachers’ perceptions of the support, challenges and opportunities associated with teaching out-of-field

While pre-service teacher (PST) education programs prepare teachers for certain specialisations, the reality is that many secondary teachers will be expected to teach out-of-field, especially in Australia. Do universities have a role to play in preparing teachers for out-of-field teaching? At the very least, they should aim to produce adaptable, well-informed, capable teachers. This project uses case study methodology to examine teacher educator and PST perceptions relating to the role that universities play in preparing teachers for a reality that is likely to include out-of-field teaching. This paper focuses on PST perceptions of the associated expected support, challenges and opportunities. A small PST survey sample and PST interviews have shown that there is general positivity towards this practice, around the opportunities that can emerge, and an expectation of support accessibility; but diversity surrounds the challenges, suggesting a variation in respondents’ capacity to cope with the challenges that might emerge. Implications for teacher education are discussed.

Economic evaluation plan (EEP) for a very early rehabilitation trial (AVERT): an international trial to compare the costs and cost-effectiveness of commencing out of bed standing and walking training (very early mobilization) within 24 h of stroke onset

RATIONALE: A key objective of A Very Early Rehabilitation Trial is to determine if the intervention, very early mobilisation following stroke, is cost-effective. Resource use data were collected to enable an economic evaluation to be undertaken and a plan for the main economic analyses was written prior to the completion of follow up data collection. AIM AND HYPOTHESIS: To report methods used to collect resource use data, pre-specify the main economic evaluation analyses and report other intended exploratory analyses of resource use data. SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATES: Recruitment to the trial has been completed. A total of 2,104 participants from 56 stroke units across three geographic regions participated in the trial. METHODS AND DESIGN: Resource use data were collected prospectively alongside the trial using standardised tools. The primary economic evaluation method is a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare resource use over 12 months with health outcomes of the intervention measured against a usual care comparator. A cost-utility analysis is also intended. STUDY OUTCOME: The primary outcome in the cost-effectiveness analysis will be favourable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) at 12 months. Cost-utility analysis will use health-related quality of life, reported as quality-adjusted life years gained over a 12 month period, as measured by the modified Rankin Scale and the Assessment of Quality of Life. DISCUSSION: Outcomes of the economic evaluation analysis will inform the cost-effectiveness of very early mobilisation following stroke when compared to usual care. The exploratory analysis will report patterns of resource use in the first year following stroke.