Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Methane seep carbonates yield clumped isotope signatures out of equilibrium with formation temperatures

Methane cold seep systems typically exhibit extensive buildups of authigenic carbonate minerals, resulting from local increases in alkalinity driven by methane oxidation. Here, we demonstrate that modern seep authigenic carbonates exhibit anomalously low clumped isotope values (Delta(47)), as much as similar to 0.2 parts per thousand lower than expected values. In modern seeps, this range of disequilibrium translates into apparent temperatures that are always warmer than ambient temperatures, by up to 50 degrees C. We examine various mechanisms that may induce disequilibrium behaviour in modern seep carbonates, and suggest that the observed values result from several factors including kinetic isotopic effects during methane oxidation, mixing of inorganic carbon pools, pH effects and rapid precipitation. Ancient seep carbonates studied here also exhibit potential disequilibrium signals. Ultimately, these findings indicate the predominance of disequilibrium clumped isotope behaviour in modern cold seep carbonates that must be considered when characterizing environmental conditions in both modern and ancient cold seep settings.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.

Emergent Antiferromagnetism Out Of The Hidden-order" State In Uru2si2: High Magnetic Field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance To 40 T."

Very high field (29)Si-NMR measurements using a fully (29)Si-enriched URu(2)Si(2) single crystal were carried out in order to microscopically investigate the hidden order (HO) state and adjacent magnetic phases in the high field limit. At the lowest measured temperature of 0.4 K, a clear anomaly reflecting a Fermi surface instability near 22 T inside the HO state is detected by the (29)Si shift, (29)K(c). Moreover, a strong enhancement of (29)K(c) develops near a critical field H(c) ≃ 35.6 T, and the ^{29}Si-NMR signal disappears suddenly at H(c), indicating the total suppression of the HO state. Nevertheless, a weak and shifted (29)Si-NMR signal reappears for fields higher than H(c) at 4.2 K, providing evidence for a magnetic structure within the magnetic phase caused by the Ising-type anisotropy of the uranium ordered moments.

Out of the Andes: patterns of diversification in clearwing butterflies

Global biodiversity peaks in the tropical forests of the Andes, a striking geological feature that has likely been instrumental in generating biodiversity by providing opportunities for both vicariant and ecological speciation. However, the role of these mountains in the diversification of insects, which dominate biodiversity, has been poorly explored using phylogenetic methods. Here we study the role of the Andes in the evolution of a diverse Neotropical insect group, the clearwing butterflies. We used dated species-level phylogenies to investigate the time course of speciation and to infer ancestral elevation ranges for two diverse genera. We show that both genera likely originated at middle elevations in the Andes in the Middle Miocene, contrasting with most published results in vertebrates that point to a lowland origin. Although we detected a signature of vicariance caused by the uplift of the Andes at the Miocene-Pliocene boundary, most sister species were parapatric without any obvious vicariant barrier. Combined with an overall decelerating speciation rate, these results suggest an important role for ecological speciation and adaptive radiation, rather than simple vicariance.

Out of the shadows: The critical sociology of sport in Australia, 1986 to 1996

The sociology of sport in Australia has reached a key point in its development. A critical tradition in the subdiscipline has been established over the last decade, but its intellectual and institutional progress has been uneven. This article briefly traces the emergence of critical sports sociology in a country outside the major centers in the UK and U.S., its break with functionalist approaches, and its attempts to overcome the neglect of local mainstream sociology. The authors proceed to examine (self-reflexively) the changes of theoretical direction and the new lines of research that are being explored in the field. A recent ''skirmish'' with narrative history over the preferred theories and methods in sports analysis is discussed as illustrative of the difficulties encountered by an energetic but small, dispersed and underorganized scholarly movement in Australia.

Taking the "cross" out of cross-cultural transfer of management practice

Multi-national enterprises often attempt to replicate successful management practices in "foreign" environments. However, such practices may be ethnocentric because they fit the assumptions, behaviors, expectations, and values of the home cultural environment. Unless the underlying assumptions are shared, transfer to a differing environment may fail. Even if the focus is shifted from cultural differences to implementation, implementation approaches may also be criticized as ethnocentric for the same reasons. In this article, a non-ethnocentric model is expanded and used to test the portability of one management practice, performance appraisal, from the USA to Brazil. This "Test of Portability" may help managers understand which management practices are portable, and, perhaps even more valuable, provide a rationale for adaptation or rejection.

Can ERASMUS mobility really help crossing borders? the in and out of a case-study

As lectures, but above all, as Erasmus....

Collision-free prioritized medium access in the presence of hidden nodes without relying on out-of-band signaling

Consider the problem of sharing a wireless channel between a set of computer nodes. Hidden nodes exist and there is no base station. Each computer node hosts a set of sporadic message streams where a message stream releases messages with real-time deadlines. We propose a collision-free wireless medium access control (MAC) protocol which implements staticpriority scheduling. The MAC protocol allows multiple masters and is fully distributed. It neither relies on synchronized clocks nor out-of-band signaling; it is an adaptation to a wireless channel of the dominance protocol used in the CAN bus. But unlike that protocol, our protocol does not require a node having the ability to receive an incoming bit from the channel while transmitting to the channel. Our protocol has the key feature of not only being prioritized and collision-free but also dealing successfully with hidden nodes. This key feature enables schedulability analysis of sporadic message streams in multihop networks.