Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Performance of polarisation functionals for linear and nonlinear optical properties of bulk zinc chalcogenides ZnX (X=S,Se,Te).

We calculated the frequency dependent macroscopic dielectric function and second-harmonic generation of cubic ZnS, ZnSe and ZnTe within time-dependent density-polarisation functional theory. The macroscopic dielectric function is calculated in a linear response framework, and second-harmonic generation in a real-time framework. The macroscopic exchange–correlation electric field that enters the time-dependent Kohn–Sham equations and accounts for long range correlation is approximated as a simple polarisation functional αP, where P is the macroscopic polarisation. Expressions for α are taken from the recent literature. The performance of the resulting approximations for the exchange–correlation electric field is analysed by comparing the theoretical spectra with experimental results and results obtained at the levels of the independent particle approximation and the random-phase approximation. For the dielectric function we also compare with state-of-the art calculations at the level of the Bethe–Salpeter equation.

STUDIES ON THE STRESS FLUCTUATIONS IN SHEARED STOKESIAN SUSPENSIONS USING CHAOS THEORY AND NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

The thesis report results obtained from a detailed analysis of the fluctuations of the rheological parameters viz. shear and normal stresses, simulated by means of the Stokesian Dynamics method, of a macroscopically homogeneous sheared suspension of neutrally buoyant non-Brownian suspension of identical spheres in the Couette gap between two parallel walls in the limit of vanishingly small Reynolds numbers using the tools of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory for a range of particle concentration and Couette gaps. The thesis used the tools of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory viz. average mutual information, space-time separation plots, visual recurrence analysis, principal component analysis, false nearest-neighbor technique, correlation integrals, computation of Lyapunov exponents for a range of area fraction of particles and for different Couette gaps. The thesis observed that one stress component can be predicted using another stress component at the same area fraction. This implies a type of synchronization of one stress component with another stress component. This finding suggests us to further analysis of the synchronization of stress components with another stress component at the same or different area fraction of particles. The different model equations of stress components for different area fraction of particles hints at the possible existence a general formula for stress fluctuations with area fraction of particle as a parameter

Speech Analysis using Modern Techniques of Nonlinear Dynamics

Medical fields requires fast, simple and noninvasive methods of diagnostic techniques. Several methods are available and possible because of the growth of technology that provides the necessary means of collecting and processing signals. The present thesis details the work done in the field of voice signals. New methods of analysis have been developed to understand the complexity of voice signals, such as nonlinear dynamics aiming at the exploration of voice signals dynamic nature. The purpose of this thesis is to characterize complexities of pathological voice from healthy signals and to differentiate stuttering signals from healthy signals. Efficiency of various acoustic as well as non linear time series methods are analysed. Three groups of samples are used, one from healthy individuals, subjects with vocal pathologies and stuttering subjects. Individual vowels/ and a continuous speech data for the utterance of the sentence "iruvarum changatimaranu" the meaning in English is "Both are good friends" from Malayalam language are recorded using a microphone . The recorded audio are converted to digital signals and are subjected to analysis.Acoustic perturbation methods like fundamental frequency (FO), jitter, shimmer, Zero Crossing Rate(ZCR) were carried out and non linear measures like maximum lyapunov exponent(Lamda max), correlation dimension (D2), Kolmogorov exponent(K2), and a new measure of entropy viz., Permutation entropy (PE) are evaluated for all three groups of the subjects. Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. The results shows that nonlinear dynamical methods seem to be a suitable technique for voice signal analysis, due to the chaotic component of the human voice. Permutation entropy is well suited due to its sensitivity to uncertainties, since the pathologies are characterized by an increase in the signal complexity and unpredictability. Pathological groups have higher entropy values compared to the normal group. The stuttering signals have lower entropy values compared to the normal signals.PE is effective in charaterising the level of improvement after two weeks of speech therapy in the case of stuttering subjects. PE is also effective in characterizing the dynamical difference between healthy and pathological subjects. This suggests that PE can improve and complement the recent voice analysis methods available for clinicians. The work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for diagnosis in vocal disorders and stuttering subjects.

Electron-Nuclear Correlation in Laser-Driven Diatomic Molecules

The interaction of short intense laser pulses with atoms/molecules produces a multitude of highly nonlinear processes requiring a non-perturbative treatment. Detailed study of these highly nonlinear processes by numerically solving the time-dependent Schrodinger equation becomes a daunting task when the number of degrees of freedom is large. Also the coupling between the electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom further aggravates the computational problems. In the present work we show that the time-dependent Hartree (TDH) approximation, which neglects the correlation effects, gives unreliable description of the system dynamics both in the absence and presence of an external field. A theoretical framework is required that treats the electrons and nuclei on equal footing and fully quantum mechanically. To address this issue we discuss two approaches, namely the multicomponent density functional theory (MCDFT) and the multiconfiguration time-dependent Hartree (MCTDH) method, that go beyond the TDH approximation and describe the correlated electron-nuclear dynamics accurately. In the MCDFT framework, where the time-dependent electronic and nuclear densities are the basic variables, we discuss an algorithm to calculate the exact Kohn-Sham (KS) potentials for small model systems. By simulating the photodissociation process in a model hydrogen molecular ion, we show that the exact KS potentials contain all the many-body effects and give an insight into the system dynamics. In the MCTDH approach, the wave function is expanded as a sum of products of single-particle functions (SPFs). The MCTDH method is able to describe the electron-nuclear correlation effects as the SPFs and the expansion coefficients evolve in time and give an accurate description of the system dynamics. We show that the MCTDH method is suitable to study a variety of processes such as the fragmentation of molecules, high-order harmonic generation, the two-center interference effect, and the lochfrass effect. We discuss these phenomena in a model hydrogen molecular ion and a model hydrogen molecule. Inclusion of absorbing boundaries in the mean-field approximation and its consequences are discussed using the model hydrogen molecular ion. To this end, two types of calculations are considered: (i) a variational approach with a complex absorbing potential included in the full many-particle Hamiltonian and (ii) an approach in the spirit of time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT), including complex absorbing potentials in the single-particle equations. It is elucidated that for small grids the TDDFT approach is superior to the variational approach.

Variational calculation of vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties

A variational approach for reliably calculating vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties of molecules with large electrical and/or mechanical anharmonicity is introduced. This approach utilizes a self-consistent solution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation for the complete field-dependent potential-energy surface and, then, adds higher-level vibrational correlation corrections as desired. An initial application is made to static properties for three molecules of widely varying anharmonicity using the lowest-level vibrational correlation treatment (i.e., vibrational Møller-Plesset perturbation theory). Our results indicate when the conventional Bishop-Kirtman perturbation method can be expected to break down and when high-level vibrational correlation methods are likely to be required. Future improvements and extensions are discussed

Identification of nonlinear systems using generalized kernel models

Nonlinear system identification is considered using a generalized kernel regression model. Unlike the standard kernel model, which employs a fixed common variance for all the kernel regressors, each kernel regressor in the generalized kernel model has an individually tuned diagonal covariance matrix that is determined by maximizing the correlation between the training data and the regressor using a repeated guided random search based on boosting optimization. An efficient construction algorithm based on orthogonal forward regression with leave-one-out (LOO) test statistic and local regularization (LR) is then used to select a parsimonious generalized kernel regression model from the resulting full regression matrix. The proposed modeling algorithm is fully automatic and the user is not required to specify any criterion to terminate the construction procedure. Experimental results involving two real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear system identification approach.

First order k-th moment finite element analysis of nonlinear operator equations with stochastic data

We develop and analyze a class of efficient Galerkin approximation methods for uncertainty quantification of nonlinear operator equations. The algorithms are based on sparse Galerkin discretizations of tensorized linearizations at nominal parameters. Specifically, we consider abstract, nonlinear, parametric operator equations J(\alpha ,u)=0 for random input \alpha (\omega ) with almost sure realizations in a neighborhood of a nominal input parameter \alpha _0. Under some structural assumptions on the parameter dependence, we prove existence and uniqueness of a random solution, u(\omega ) = S(\alpha (\omega )). We derive a multilinear, tensorized operator equation for the deterministic computation of k-th order statistical moments of the random solution's fluctuations u(\omega ) - S(\alpha _0). We introduce and analyse sparse tensor Galerkin discretization schemes for the efficient, deterministic computation of the k-th statistical moment equation. We prove a shift theorem for the k-point correlation equation in anisotropic smoothness scales and deduce that sparse tensor Galerkin discretizations of this equation converge in accuracy vs. complexity which equals, up to logarithmic terms, that of the Galerkin discretization of a single instance of the mean field problem. We illustrate the abstract theory for nonstationary diffusion problems in random domains.

Influence diagnostics in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

In this work we propose and analyze nonlinear elliptical models for longitudinal data, which represent an alternative to gaussian models in the cases of heavy tails, for instance. The elliptical distributions may help to control the influence of the observations in the parameter estimates by naturally attributing different weights for each case. We consider random effects to introduce the within-group correlation and work with the marginal model without requiring numerical integration. An iterative algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters is presented, as well as diagnostic results based on residual distances and local influence [Cook, D., 1986. Assessment of local influence. journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B 48 (2), 133-169; Cook D., 1987. Influence assessment. journal of Applied Statistics 14 (2),117-131; Escobar, L.A., Meeker, W.Q., 1992, Assessing influence in regression analysis with censored data, Biometrics 48, 507-528]. As numerical illustration, we apply the obtained results to a kinetics longitudinal data set presented in [Vonesh, E.F., Carter, R.L., 1992. Mixed-effects nonlinear regression for unbalanced repeated measures. Biometrics 48, 1-17], which was analyzed under the assumption of normality. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic-field asymmetry of nonlinear transport in a small ring

We have investigated the magnetic-field asymmetry of the conductance in the nonlinear regime in a small Aharonov-Bohm ring. We have found that the odd-in B and linear in V (the DC bias) correlation function of the differential conductance exhibits periodical oscillations with the Aharonov-Bohm flux. We have deduced the electron interaction constant and analyzed the phase rigidity of the Aharonov-Bohm oscillations in the nonlinear regime. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2009

Pseudo-nonlinear and athermal lensing effects on transverse properties of Cr(3+) based solid-state lasers

Several experiments (time-resolved Z-scan experiments based on pulsed and CW pump lasers, time-resolved divergence diagnostics) have been performed to examine and clarify the question of the converging or diverging population lensing effect occurring in a Cr(3+):Al(2)O(3) ruby laser. The dynamics of the laser far-field divergence of such a laser indeed indicated initially a diverging effect while Z-scan measurements conclude to a converging one. The origin of this discrepancy is thus analysed and elucidated here by introducing the general concept of correlation collapse between the centre and the wings of a laser beam having some clipping. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Optimisation of nonlinear motion cueing algorithm based on genetic algorithm

Motion cueing algorithms (MCAs) are playing a significant role in driving simulators, aiming to deliver the most accurate human sensation to the simulator drivers compared with a real vehicle driver, without exceeding the physical limitations of the simulator. This paper provides the optimisation design of an MCA for a vehicle simulator, in order to find the most suitable washout algorithm parameters, while respecting all motion platform physical limitations, and minimising human perception error between real and simulator driver. One of the main limitations of the classical washout filters is that it is attuned by the worst-case scenario tuning method. This is based on trial and error, and is effected by driving and programmers experience, making this the most significant obstacle to full motion platform utilisation. This leads to inflexibility of the structure, production of false cues and makes the resulting simulator fail to suit all circumstances. In addition, the classical method does not take minimisation of human perception error and physical constraints into account. Production of motion cues and the impact of different parameters of classical washout filters on motion cues remain inaccessible for designers for this reason. The aim of this paper is to provide an optimisation method for tuning the MCA parameters, based on nonlinear filtering and genetic algorithms. This is done by taking vestibular sensation error into account between real and simulated cases, as well as main dynamic limitations, tilt coordination and correlation coefficient. Three additional compensatory linear blocks are integrated into the MCA, to be tuned in order to modify the performance of the filters successfully. The proposed optimised MCA is implemented in MATLAB/Simulink software packages. The results generated using the proposed method show increased performance in terms of human sensation, reference shape tracking and exploiting the platform more efficiently without reaching the motion limitations.

Analysis of beef cattle longitudinal data applying a nonlinear model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the Nelore beef cattle, growth curve parameters using the Von Bertalanffy function in a nested Bayesian procedure that allowed estimation of the joint posterior distribution of growth curve parameters, their (co)variance components, and the environmental and additive genetic components affecting them. A hierarchical model was applied; each individual had a growth trajectory described by the nonlinear function, and each parameter of this function was considered to be affected by genetic and environmental effects that were described by an animal model. Random samples of the posterior distributions were drawn using Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. The data set consisted of a total of 145,961 BW recorded from 15,386 animals. Even though the curve parameters were estimated for animals with few records, given that the information from related animals and the structure of systematic effects were considered in the curve fitting, all mature BW predicted were suitable. A large additive genetic variance for mature BW was observed. The parameter a of growth curves, which represents asymptotic adult BW, could be used as a selection criterion to control increases in adult BW when selecting for growth rate. The effect of maternal environment on growth was carried through to maturity and should be considered when evaluating adult BW. Other growth curve parameters showed small additive genetic and maternal effects. Mature BW and parameter k, related to the slope of the curve, presented a large, positive genetic correlation. The results indicated that selection for growth rate would increase adult BW without substantially changing the shape of the growth curve. Selection to change the slope of the growth curve without modifying adult BW would be inefficient because their genetic correlation is large. However, adult BW could be considered in a selection index with its corresponding economic weight to improve the overall efficiency of beef cattle production.

Antimony orthophosphate glasses with large nonlinear refractive indices, low two-photon absorption coefficients, and ultrafast response

Antimony glasses based on the composition Sb2O3-SbPO4 were prepared and characterized. The samples present high refractive index, good transmission from 380 to 2000 nm, and high thermal stability. The nonlinear refractive index, n(2), of the samples was studied using the optical Kerr shutter technique at 800 nm. The third-order correlation signals between pump and probe pulses indicate ultrafast response (<100 fs) for all compositions. Enhancement of n(2) was observed by adding lead oxide to the Sb2O3-SbPO4 composition. Large values of n(2)approximate to10(-14) cm(2)/W and negligible two-photon absorption coefficients (smaller than 0.01 cm/GW) were determined for all samples. The glass compositions studied present appropriate figure-of-merit for all-optical switching applications. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.