Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Causal structure and birefringence in nonlinear electrodynamics

We investigate the causal structure of general nonlinear electrodynamics and determine which Lagrangians generate an effective metric conformal to Minkowski. We also prove that there is only one analytic nonlinear electrodynamics not presenting birefringence.

Suche nach Dunkler Materie in Galaxien und Galaxienhaufen mit dem Neutrinoteleskop IceCube

Trotz zahlreicher Hinweise auf die Existenz von Dunkler Materie, konnten entsprechende Teilchen bisher nicht nachgewiesen werden. Eine große Anzahl an Experimenten wird durchgeführt, um die Eigenschaften möglicher Kandidatenteilchen zu untersuchen. Eine Strategie ist die Suche nach einem Neutrinosignal aus den Annihilationen von schwach wechselwirkenden massiven Teilchen (WIMPs) in Regionen mit hoher Dichte von Dunkler Materie. Mögliche Zielobjekte dieser Suchen sind die Erde, die Sonne, das Zentrum und der Halo der Milchstraße sowie entfernte Objekte, die einen hohen Anteil Dunkler Materie aufweisen.In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die erste Suche nach einem Neutrinosignal von Zwerggalaxien, größeren Galaxien und Galaxienhaufen beschrieben. Da kein Signal nachgewiesen wurde, konnten obere Grenzen auf den Annihilationsquerschnitt von WIMPs gesetzt werden. Die stärksten Grenzen wurden aus der Beobachtung des Virgo-Haufens unter der Annahme einer großen Signalverstärkung durch Unterstrukturen in der Dichteverteilung abgeleitet. Für WIMP-Massen oberhalb von einigen TeV ist das Ergebnis vergleichbar mit Grenzen, die aus der Suche mit Gammateleskopen abgeleitet wurden. Für den direkten Annihilationskanal in zwei Neutrinos konnte der Wirkungsquerschnitt stärker eingeschränkt werden, als in bisherigen Analysen.

Observations and modeling of the Marginal Ice Zone

Global climate change in recent decades has strongly influenced the Arctic generating pronounced warming accompanied by significant reduction of sea ice in seasonally ice-covered seas and a dramatic increase of open water regions exposed to wind [Stephenson et al., 2011]. By strongly scattering the wave energy, thick multiyear ice prevents swell from penetrating deeply into the Arctic pack ice. However, with the recent changes affecting Arctic sea ice, waves gain more energy from the extended fetch and can therefore penetrate further into the pack ice. Arctic sea ice also appears weaker during melt season, extending the transition zone between thick multi-year ice and the open ocean. This region is called the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In the Arctic, the MIZ is mainly encountered in the marginal seas, such as the Nordic Seas, the Barents Sea, the Beaufort Sea and the Labrador Sea. Formed by numerous blocks of sea ice of various diameters (floes) the MIZ, under certain conditions, allows maritime transportation stimulating dreams of industrial and touristic exploitation of these regions and possibly allowing, in the next future, a maritime connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific. With the increasing human presence in the Arctic, waves pose security and safety issues. As marginal seas are targeted for oil and gas exploitation, understanding and predicting ocean waves and their effects on sea ice become crucial for structure design and for real time safety of operations. The juxtaposition of waves and sea ice represents a risk for personnel and equipment deployed on ice, and may complicate critical operations such as platform evacuations. The risk is difficult to evaluate because there are no long-term observations of waves in ice, swell events are difficult to predict from local conditions, ice breakup can occur on very short time-scales and wave-ice interactions are beyond the scope of current forecasting models [Liu and Mollo-Christensen, 1988,Marko, 2003]. In this thesis, a newly developed Waves in Ice Model (WIM) [Williams et al., 2013a,Williams et al., 2013b] and its related Ocean and Sea Ice model (OSIM) will be used to study the MIZ and the improvements of wave modeling in ice infested waters. The following work has been conducted in collaboration with the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and within the SWARP project which aims to extend operational services supporting human activity in the Arctic by including forecast of waves in ice-covered seas, forecast of sea-ice in the presence of waves and remote sensing of both waves and sea ice conditions. The WIM will be included in the downstream forecasting services provided by Copernicus marine environment monitoring service.

Kubo relations and radiative corrections for lepton number washout

The rates for lepton number washout in extensions of the Standard Model containing right-handed neutrinos are key ingredients in scenarios for baryogenesis through leptogenesis. We relate these rates to real-time correlation functions at finite temperature, without making use of any particle approximations. The relations are valid to quadratic order in neutrino Yukawa couplings and to all orders in Standard Model couplings. They take into account all spectator processes, and apply both in the symmetric and in the Higgs phase of the electroweak theory. We use the relations to compute washout rates at next-to-leading order in g, where g denotes a Standard Model gauge or Yukawa coupling, both in the non-relativistic and in the relativistic regime. Even in the non-relativistic regime the parametrically dominant radiative corrections are only suppressed by a single power of g. In the non-relativistic regime radiative corrections increase the washout rate by a few percent at high temperatures, but they are of order unity around the weak scale and in the relativistic regime.

(Table 1) Mean sea-ice properties from moored upward looking sonars along the Greenwich meridian

Sea-ice ocean interaction processes are of significant influence on the water mass formation in the Weddell gyre. On the basis of data obtained between 1984 and 2008 from eight repeat hydrographic sections, moored instruments and profiling floats in the Weddell gyre on the Greenwich meridian - almost all of them collected with R.V. Polarstern - we identified variations in the properties of the Winter Water and the sea ice draft. In the Winter Water the salinity was relatively low throughout the 1990s (with a minimum in 1992) and a maximum was observed in 2003. Observations of sea ice draft by moored upward looking sonars are available from 1996 onwards. In the southern part of the transect they display variations on a decadal time scale with a minimum in sea-ice thickness in 1998 and an increase since then. Salinity variations in the Winter Water layer cannot be explained only by variations in sea-ice formation and variable entrainment of underlying Warm Deep Water, but lateral advection of water and sea ice needs to be taken into account as well. Potential sources are melt water from the ice shelves in the western Weddell Sea or transport of water of low salinity entering the Weddell gyre from the east. Accompanying variations of the properties of Warm Deep Water are discussed in detail in a companion paper (Fahrbach et al., 2011, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2011.06.007).

(Table 1) Egg size, clutch asymmetry, hatch date and breeding success in south polar skua, brown skua and mixed pairs on King George Island

We studied how environmental conditions affect reproduction in sympatric skua species that differ in their reliance on marine resources: the exclusively marine foraging south polar skua Catharacta maccormicki, the terrestrially foraging brown skua C. antarctica lonnbergi and mixed species pairs with an intermediate diet. Egg size, clutch asymmetry and hatching dates varied between species and years without consistent patterns. In the south polar skuas, 12 to 38% of the variation in these parameters was explained by sea surface temperature, sea ice cover and local weather. In mixed species pairs and brown skuas, the influence of environmental factors on variation in clutch asymmetry and hatching date decreased to 10-29%, and no effect on egg size was found. Annual variation in offspring growth performance also differed between species with variable growth in chicks of south polar skuas and mixed species pairs, and almost uniform growth in brown skuas. Additionally, the dependency on oceanographic and climatic factors, especially local wind conditions, decreased from south polar skuas to brown skua chicks. Consistent in all species, offspring were more sensitive to environmental conditions during early stages; during the late chick stage (>33 d) chick growth was almost independent of environmental conditions. The net breeding success could not be predicted by any environmental factor in any skua species, suggesting it may not be a sensitive indicator of environmental conditions. Hence, the sensitivity of skuas to environmental conditions varied between species, with south polar skuas being more sensitive than brown skuas, and between breeding periods, with the egg parameters being more susceptible to oceanographic conditions. However, during offspring development, local climatic conditions became more important. We conclude that future climate change in the Maritime Antarctic will affect reproduction of skuas more strongly through changes in sea ice cover and sea surface temperature (and the resulting alterations to the marine food web) than through local weather conditions.

(Table 1) Chlorophyll a content and microalgae abundance and biovolume in pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea

Pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea contained moderate to high stocks of microalgal biomass (3-10 mg Chl a/m**2) spanning the range of general sea-ice microalgal microhabitats (e.g., bottom, interior and surface) during the International Polar Year (IPY) Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) studies. Measurements of irradiance above and beneath the ice as well as optical properties of the microalgae therein demonstrated that absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by particulates (microalgae and detritus) had a substantial influence on attenuation of PAR and irradiance transmission in areas with moderate snow covers (0.2-0.3 m) and more moderate effects in areas with low snow cover. Particulates contributed an estimated 25 to 90% of the attenuation coefficients for the first-year sea ice at wavelengths less than 500 nm. Strong ultraviolet radiation (UVR) absorption by particulates was prevalent in the ice habitats where solar radiation was highest - with absorption coefficients by ice algae often being as large as that of the sea ice. Strong UVR-absorption features were associated with an abundance of dinoflagellates and a general lack of diatoms - perhaps suggesting UVR may be influencing the structure of some parts of the sea-ice microbial communities in the pack ice during spring. We also evaluated the time-varying changes in the spectra of under-ice irradiances in the austral spring and showed dynamics associated with changes that could be attributed to coupled changes in the ice thickness (mass balance) and microalgal biomass. All results are indicative of radiation-induced changes in the absorption properties of the pack ice and highlight the non-linear, time-varying, biophysical interactions operating within the Antarctic pack ice ecosystem.

Snow height on sea ice and sea ice drift from autonomous measurements from buoy 2013S1, deployed during Antarctic Fast Ice Network 2013 (AFIN 2013)

Snow height was measured by the Snow Depth Buoy 2013S1, an autonomous platform, installed close to Neumayer III Base, Antarctic during Antarctic Fast Ice Network 2013 (AFIN 2013). The resulting time series describes the evolution of snow height as a function of place and time between 2013-02-11 and 2013-04-29 in sample intervals of 1 hour. The Snow Depth Buoy consists of four independent sonar measurements representing the area (approx. 10 m**2) around the buoy. The buoy was installed on the ice shelf. In addition to snow height, geographic position (GPS), barometric pressure, air temperature, and ice surface temperature were measured. Negative values of snow height occur if surface ablation continues into the sea ice. Thus, these measurements describe the position of the sea ice surface relative to the original snow-ice interface. Differences between single sensors indicate small-scale variability of the snow pack around the buoy. The data set has been processed, including the removal of obvious inconsistencies (missing values). Records without any snow height may still be used for sea ice drift analyses. Note: This data set contains only relative changes in snow height, because no initial readings of absolute snow height are available.