A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji Islands

In this article we examine Wagner's law for Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002. Using the Johansen (1988) test for cointegration, we find one cointegration relationship between national output and government expenditure. Using five different long run estimators, we find robust results on the impact of national income on government expenditure. The elasticity ranges from 1.36 to 1.44, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.36-1.44% increase in government expenditure. Moreover, we find that in the long run national income Granger causes government expenditure. While these results are consistent with Wagner's law, we warn policy makers that because Fiji's total debt stands at around 69% of GDP, in future the bulk of expenditure will go towards debt financing at the expense of productive sectors.

Forecasting construction demand : a vector error correction model with dummy variables

Modelling the level of demand for construction is vital in policy formulation and implementation as the construction industry plays an important role in a country’s economic development process. In construction economics, research efforts on construction demand modelling and forecasting are various, but few researchers have considered the impact of global economy events in construction demand modelling. An advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector error correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was adopted to predict demand in the Australian construction market. The results of prediction accuracy tests suggest that the general VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variables are both acceptable for forecasting construction economic indicators. However, the VEC model that considers external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the general VEC model. The model estimates indicate that the growth in population, changes in national income, fluctuations in interest rates and changes in householder expenditure all play significant roles when explaining variations in construction demand. The VEC model with disturbances developed can serve as an experimentation using an advanced econometrical method which can be used to analyse the effect of specific events or factors on the construction market growth.

Scaling-up foreign aid : will the 'big push' work?

International donors are substantially scaling-up aid programmes. At the same time, there are widespread reservations over how much aid recipient countries can use effectively. Such concerns are supported by the aid effectiveness literature which finds that there are limits to the amounts of aid recipients can efficiently absorb. This article demonstrates that a ‘big push’ in foreign aid will not lead to diminishing returns as long as donors get the inter-country allocation of aid right. This is true even if donors provide aid at levels equal to the well-known target of 0.7 per cent of their gross national income

Patient costs during tuberculosis treatment in Bangladesh and Tanzania: the potential of shorter regimens

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs incurred by patients during the intensive and continuation phases of the current 6-month tuberculosis (TB) regimen in Bangladesh and Tanzania, and thus identify potential benefits to patients of a shorter, 4-month treatment regimen. DESIGN: The validated Stop TB patient cost questionnaire was adapted and used in interviews with 190 patients in the continuation phase of treatment with current regimens. RESULTS: In both countries, overall patient costs were lower during 2 months of the continuation phase (US$74 in Tanzania and US$56 in Bangladesh) than during the 2 months of the intensive phase of treatment (US$150 and US$111, respectively). However, continuation phase patient costs still represented 89% and 77% of the 2-month average national income in the respective countries. Direct travel costs in some settings were kept low by local delivery system features such as community treatment observation. Lost productivity and costs for supplementary foods remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Although it is not a straightforward exercise to determine the exact magnitude of likely savings, a shorter regimen would reduce out-of-pocket expenses incurred by patients in the most recent 2 months of the continuation phase and allow an earlier return to productive activities. © 2014 The Union.

The implications of embodiment and Putty-Clay to economic development

In this paper we construct and analyze a growth model with the following three ingredients. (i) Technological progress is embodied. (ii) The production function of a firm is such that the firm makes both technology upgrade as well as capital and labor decisions. (iii) The firm’s production technology is putty-clay. We assume that there are disincentives to the accumulation of capital, resulting in a divergence between the social and the private cost of investment. We solve a single firm’s problem in this environment. Then we determine general equilibrium prices of capital goods of different vintages. Using these prices we aggregate firms’ decisions and construct the theoretical analogues of National Income statistics. This generates a relationship between disincentives and per capita incomes. We analyze this relationship and show the quantitative and qualitative roles of embodiment and putty-clay. We also show how the model is taken to data, quantified and used to determine to what extent income gaps across countries can be attributed to disincentives.

Entrepreneurial risk and labour's share in output

This paper presents a theoretical model which discusses the role played by the entrepreneurial risk on the distribution of the national income. In a two-period general equilibrium framework with competitive risk-averse entrepreneurs it is shown that the highest the risk borne by firms, the lower will be real wages, employment and the labour's share in output. The model helps explain the fall of the labour's share in the Brazilian output during the 1980s.

Vintage capital, distortions and development

This paper asks to what extent distortions to the adoption of new technology cause income inequality across nations. We work in the framework of embodied technological progress with an individual, C.E.S. production function. We estimate the parameters of this production function from international data and calibrate the model, using U.S. National Income statistics. Our analysis suggests that distortions account for a bigger portion of income inequality than hitherto has been assessed.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006

Includes bibliography

A comparative study of health care policy in the United States and Canada: what policymakers in Latin America might and might not learn from their neighbors to the North

Includes bibliography

Mexico: value added in exports of manufactures

Includes bibliography

The Netherlands Antilles: trade and integration with CARICOM

Introduction The Netherlands Antilles is an autonomous entity within the Kingdom of the Netherlands and comprises a federation of five Caribbean islands: Bonaire and Curacao (the Leeward islands) which comprise 80 per cent of the population of 211,000 and Saba, St. Eustatius and the southern part of St. Maarten (the Windward islands). Like the other countries in the Kingdom, it enjoys full autonomy in internal matters as, for example, education, public health, justice and customs. It has a per capita income of about US$ 12,000. The Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands account for about 75 per cent (Curacao (70 per cent) and Bonaire (5 per cent)) and 25 percent respectively of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles. The Netherlands Antilles has its own currency, the Netherlands guilder, which is pegged to the United States dollar at a fixed rate since 1971. The economy has some unique features that stem from its close relations with the Netherlands, its undiversified nature and heavy dependence on tourism, offshore finance, oil refining and shipping, the high share of trade (exports of goods and services of about 75 per cent of GDP), its geographical characteristics, its common border with the French Republic on St. Maarten, its duty-free access for imports from Aruba, its de facto free trade zone (FTZ), partial dollarization, especially for the Windward Islands, and its highly regulated labor market (1). Adverse economic shocks in the last two decades affected particularly the offshore financial sector and the oil refinery and, to a lesser extent, tourism. The repeal of withholding taxes in the United States in the 1980s indirectly caused the collapse of a number of highly profitable offshore financial activities in Curacao, leading to significant drops in government revenue and contributions to foreign exchange earnings. The withdrawal of Shell from Curacao in 1986 and the (temporary) closure of the oil refinery which had been a mainstay of the Curacao economy for almost three quarters of a century was the second major shock. It was subsequently leased to the Venezuelan State Company, Petroleos de Venezuela Sociedad Anonima (PDVSA), which resumed operations and preserved employment. In the 1990s, the Windward Islands were bit by several devastating hurricanes, which destroyed much of the economic infrastructure on the islands, including about half of the number of available hotel rooms in St Maarten. Further negative shocks were related to the discontinuation of certain trade privileges on European markets for Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs), the withdrawal by the Netherlands of certain tax privileges for Dutch pensioners residing in the Netherlands Antilles and disruptions in the availability of Solidarity Fund resources for the smaller islands. National income has been on the decline since 1997. GDP declined by about 6 per cent between 1997 and 1999. Underlying fiscal imbalances and structural weaknesses have also impacted negatively on the economy. In recent years, with recession high unemployment and migration have been experienced (2). The Netherlands Antilles has been able to survive thanks to additional aid from the Netherlands, large-scale spontaneous emigration (mostly to the Netherlands), some drop in international reserves, an increase in domestic debt and arrears and reduced outlays for the maintenance of public assets. From 1986 onwards, successive efforts at restoring macroeconomic balance, particularly with regard to public finance, were made, but were unsuccessful. Adjustment was also attempted in 1996 and 1997, but failed to meet the desired targets. In 1999, the government launched a new National Recovery Plan" (NRP). The NRP contains important medium-term structural adjustment measures aimed at restoring macroeconomic balance and conditions for revitalizing the economy. The NRP subsequently served as an important input into a comprehensive adjustment plan drawn up with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reflected in the government's Memorandum of Economic Policies dated 15 September 2000. Beyond restoring macroeconomic balance and reforming the economic incentive framework, the government aims at establishing a Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) for the formulation and implementation of a sustainable long-term growth strategy. It is against the above background that this study is undertaken. Its main objective is to assess the integration options facing the Netherlands Antilles (3) vis-a-vis the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). A secondary objective is to examine the above taking into account, inter alia, the level of trade between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM, the barriers to trade between the two groups of countries and the requirements for increasing trade between the two groups of countries. The Consultant was given an initial Draft Terms of Reference (Annex 1) with the intention of modifying it in the course of the interviews with all the stakeholders. The main idea that emerged from these interviews was a concern with some possible form of association with CARICOM. The Consultant was asked to exam the costs and benefits of various forms of association and to recommend an option. This adjustment of the Terms of Reference (TOR) was substantial and involved the Consultant having to do some interviews and collect documentation in CARICOM. The study essentially revolves around the search for a road map for the Netherlands Antilles. It is tackled in the first instance by describing the existing system of trade of the Netherlands Antilles with a view to determining the import and export structures and the specific nature and extent of trade in goods and services between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM. 1 Netherlands Antilles: Elements of a Strategy for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Growth. Interim Report of the World Bank Mission, 5-20 December 2000. 2 IMF, IMF Country Report No. 01/73 Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands Antilles-Recent Development, Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix. May 2001 3 The Netherlands Antilles is a country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. It contains five islands. Curacao and Bonaire (Leewards) and St Eustatius, Saba and St Maarten (The Windwards)"

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

Stylized features of the investment-growth connection in Latin America, 1980-2012

Estimates of investment and its components in Latin America over the past 30 years are used to review stylized facts relating to investment and explore factors that explain its connection with economic growth. In particular, the low level of investment, the reduction in public spending in the 1980s and its partial recovery along with private investment between 2003 and 2010 are explored. It is found that the increase in national income —on the back of rising terms of trade— made it possible to increase national saving and its contribution to financing investment between 2004 and 2008. The analysis of causality between the investment ratio and growth in gross domestic product (gdp) suggest that —for a considerable number of Latin American countries— changes in the growth rate have preceded changes in the investment ration in the period under study.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 657 - "The Philosophy of Western Society", "Bericht über die Aktivitäten des Instituts für Sozialforschung für Robert M. MacIver", "Über die Tätigkeit des Instituts für Sozialforschung", "Stipendiaten des Instituts für Sozialforschung: Forschungsberichte", "Research Projects of the International Institut of Social Research" (p. IX 56-IX 59.2)

Über das Forschungsprogramm: The Philosophy of Western Society. Teilstück des allgemeinen Forschungsprogramms, veröffentlicht unter dem Untertitel: "The Philosophy of Social Science", in: "International Institute of Social Research. A Report of Its History, Aims and Activites, 1933-1938", New York (1938?), S. 19, Typoskript mit eigenhändiger Korrektur, 2 Blatt; Bericht über die Aktivitäten des Instituts für Sozialforschung für Robert M. MacIver, 1938-39: 1. Bericht vom 7.12.1939; a) Typoskript, englisch, 9 Blatt; b) Typoskript, als Brief von Pollock an Robert M. MacIver, Typoskript 10 Blatt; c) Entwurf Typoskript, englisch, 15 Blatt; d) Entwurf Typoskript, deutsch, 17 Blatt; MacIver, Robert M.: 1 Brief mit Unterschrift an Friedrich Pollock, New York, 27.04.1938, 1 Blatt; "Some data on the Institut`s Staff and Activities", 11.03.1938, zwei Typoskripte, je 2 Blatt; Über die Tätigkeiten des Instituts für Sozialforschung. Verschiedene Berichte. 1939; Aufstellung der Forschungsgebiete verschiedener Mitarbeiter des Instituts. Ohne Datum, Typoskript, 9 Blatt; Aufstellung der Forschungsgebiete verschiedener Mitarbeiter des Institutes, aus einem Bericht. Typoskript, 7 Blatt; Bericht an den Präsidenten des Columbia University. Typoskript, 2 Blatt; "Contribution of Dr. Franz Neumann to the Round Table Discussion, Chicago, Social Science Reaserach Building" Dezember 1939; a) Typoskript mit Handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 3 Blatt; b) Typoskript, 3 Blatt; "Statment on the objectives of the International Institut of Social Research". Typoskript, 2 Blatt; Stipendiaten des Instituts für Sozialforschung: Forschungsberichte, Ende 1939; Adorno, Theodor W.: a) Typoskript, englisch, mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 4 Blatt; b) Typoskript, deutsch, 3 Blatt; Beck, Maximilian: "Geschichte des Begriffs der Vernunft von Platon bis Husserl (Outline)". Typoskript, englisch und deutsch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 7 Blatt; Flechtheim, Ossip K.: Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Ergänzungen, 1 Blatt; Fried, Hans Ernest: Typoskript, 1 Blatt, 16.11.1939; Grossmann, Henryk: "Capitalism in the 13th Century"; a) Typoskript, englisch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 6 Blatt; b) Typoskript, englisch, 6 Blatt; c) Typoskript, deutsch, 4 Blatt; Grossmann, Henryk: "The Classical Theory and Marxism"; a) Typoskript, englisch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt; b) Typoskript, deutsch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt; Kirchheimer, Otto: Manuskript, 1 Blatt; Lauterbach, Albert: a) Typoskript, englisch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt; b) Typoskript, deutsch, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 1 Blatt; Marcuse, Herbert: Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt; Neumann, Franz L.: Typoskript, 2 Blatt; Wittfogel, Karl August: Typsokript, 2 Blatt; Zilsel, Edgar: Typoskript, 4 Blatt; Research Projects of the International Institute of Social Research. nicht vor 1939; Beschreibung der Forschungsprojekte: Pollock, Friedrich: "Economic and Social Cosequences of a Prepardness Economy". Neumann, Franz L.: "The Rule of Law". Fromm, Erich: "The German Worker in the Weiman Republic". Kirchheimer,Otto: "Criminal Law and Social Structure". Marcuse, Herbert: " A Text and Source Book for the History of Philosophy". Fromm, Erich: "Character Structure of Modern Man". Neumann, Franz L.: "The Theory and Practice of European Labor Law". Wittfogel, Karl August; Wittfogel-Lang, Olga: "The Chinese Family"; Dasselbe wie in "Beschreibung der Forschungsprojekte", ausgenommen Pollock, Friedrich: "Economic and Social Cosquences of a Prepardness Economy" und Fromm, Erich: "The German Worker in the Weimar Republic", zusätzlich Kirchner, Otto; Weil, Felix: "Changes in Social Stratification, National Income, and Living Standards of Germany since 1933"; 1 Ordner, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 49 Blatt;

Determinants of government consumption expenditure in developing countries : a panel data analysis

The paper focuses on the recent pattern of government consumption expenditure in developing countries and estimates the determinants which have influenced government expenditure. Using a panel data set for 111 developing countries from 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that political and institutional variables as well as governance variables significantly influence government expenditure. Among other results, the paper finds new evidence of Wagner's law which states that peoples' demand for service and willingness to pay is income-elastic hence the expansion of public economy is influenced by the greater economic affluence of a nation (Cameron1978). Corruption is found to be influential in explaining the public expenditure of developing countries. On the contrary, size of the economy and fractionalization are found to have significant negative association with government expenditure. In addition, the study finds evidence that public expenditure significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other form of governance.