Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Intraindividual relations between achievement goals and discrete achievement emotions: an experience sampling approach

Theories on the link between achievement goals and achievement emotions focus on their within-person functional relationship (i.e., intraindividual relations). However, empirical studies have failed to analyze these intraindividual relations and have instead examined between-person covariation of the two constructs (i.e., interindividual relations). Aiming to better connect theory and empirical research, the present study (N = 120 10th grade students) analyzed intraindividual relations by assessing students’ state goals and emotions using experience sampling (N = 1,409 assessments within persons). In order to replicate previous findings on interindividual relations, students’ trait goals and emotions were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Despite being statistically independent, both types of relations were consistent with theoretical expectations, as shown by multi-level modeling: Mastery goals were positive predictors of enjoyment and negative predictors of boredom and anger; performance-approach goals were positive predictors of pride; and performance-avoidance goals were positive predictors of anxiety and shame. Reasons for the convergence of intra- and interindividual findings, directions for future research, and implications for educational practice are discussed.

Cloud streets and land-water interactions in the Amazon

Cloud streets are common feature in the Amazon Basin. They form from the combination of the vertical trade wind stress and moist convection. Here, satellite imagery, data collected during the COBRA-PARA (Caxiuan Observations in the Biosphere, River and Atmosphere of Para) field campaign, and high resolution modeling are used to understand the streets` formation and behavior. The observations show that the streets have an aspect ratio of about 3.5 and they reach their maximum activity around 15:00 UTC when the wind shear is weaker, and the convective boundary layer reaches its maximum height. The simulations reveal that the cloud streets onset is caused by the local circulations and convection produced at the interfaces between forest and rivers of the Amazon. The satellite data and modeling show that the large rivers anchor the cloud streets producing a quasi-stationary horizontal pattern. The streets are associated with horizontal roll vortices parallel to the mean flow that organizes the turbulence causing advection of latent heat flux towards the upward branches. The streets have multiple warm plumes that promote a connection between the rolls. These spatial patterns allow fundamental insights on the interpretation of the Amazon exchanges between surface and atmosphere with important consequences for the climate change understanding.

Uma Aplicação de Redes Neurais Auto-Organizaveis à Reconstrução Tridimensional de Superfícies

We propose a multi-resolution approach for surface reconstruction from clouds of unorganized points representing an object surface in 3D space. The proposed method uses a set of mesh operators and simple rules for selective mesh refinement, with a strategy based on Kohonen s self-organizing map. Basically, a self-adaptive scheme is used for iteratively moving vertices of an initial simple mesh in the direction of the set of points, ideally the object boundary. Successive refinement and motion of vertices are applied leading to a more detailed surface, in a multi-resolution, iterative scheme. Reconstruction was experimented with several point sets, induding different shapes and sizes. Results show generated meshes very dose to object final shapes. We include measures of performance and discuss robustness.

Seleção de features guiada por atenção visual em imagens com fóvea

Visual attention is a very important task in autonomous robotics, but, because of its complexity, the processing time required is significant. We propose an architecture for feature selection using foveated images that is guided by visual attention tasks and that reduces the processing time required to perform these tasks. Our system can be applied in bottom-up or top-down visual attention. The foveated model determines which scales are to be used on the feature extraction algorithm. The system is able to discard features that are not extremely necessary for the tasks, thus, reducing the processing time. If the fovea is correctly placed, then it is possible to reduce the processing time without compromising the quality of the tasks outputs. The distance of the fovea from the object is also analyzed. If the visual system loses the tracking in top-down attention, basic strategies of fovea placement can be applied. Experiments have shown that it is possible to reduce up to 60% the processing time with this approach. To validate the method, we tested it with the feature algorithm known as Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF), one of the most efficient approaches for feature extraction. With the proposed architecture, we can accomplish real time requirements of robotics vision, mainly to be applied in autonomous robotics

Correspondência estéreo usando imagens em multiresolução com profundidade variável

We propose a multi-resolution, coarse-to-fine approach for stereo matching, where the first matching happens at a different depth for each pixel. The proposed technique has the potential of attenuating several problems faced by the constant depth algorithm, making it possible to reduce the number of errors or the number of comparations needed to get equivalent results. Several experiments were performed to demonstrate the method efficiency, including comparison with the traditional plain correlation technique, where the multi-resolution matching with variable depth, proposed here, generated better results with a smaller processing time

Detection and classification of voltage disturbances using a Fuzzy-ARTMAP-wavelet network

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Robust fault diagnosis in power distribution systems based on fuzzy ARTMAP neural network-aided evidence theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multipath reduction from GPS double differences using wavelets: How far can we go?

Wavelets are being extensively used in Geodetic applications. In this paper, the Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) using wavelets is applied to pseudorange and carrier phase GPS double differences (DDs) in order to reduce multipath effects. The wavelets were already applied to GPS carrier phase DDs, but some questions remain: How good can be the results, and are all multipath effects reduced? The answers to these questions are discussed in this paper. Thus, the wavelet transform is used to decompose the DD signals, splitting them in lower resolution components. After the decomposition process, the wavelet shrinkage is performed by thresholding to eliminate the components relative to multipath effects. Then, the DD observation can be reconstructed. This new DD signal is used to perform the baseline processing. The daily multipath repeatability was verified. With the application of the proposed approach, the results showed that the reliability of the ambiguity resolution and accuracy of the results improved when compared with the standard procedure. Furthermore, the method showed to be very efficient computationally, because, it is not noticed, at practical level, difference in the time span between the processing with and without application of the proposed method. However, only the high frequency multipath was eliminated.

Avaliação do nível de multicaminho no posicionamento relativo GPS e sua atenuação através da análise de multiresolução

The multipath effect affects the differential and relative positioning, even that one involving short baselines. So it is necessary to detect this effect, check the caused error level, and mainly, its removal. This paper aims at analysing and comparing some useful components in the detection of this effect. These components are the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), the values of MP1 and MP2 obtained from the TEQC software that indicates the multipath level in the carriers L1 and L2, the multipath repeatability in consecutive days and the elevation angle and the azimuth of the satellites. For this purpose, an experiment is carried out, comparing such components in the presence and the absence of reflector objects that cause the multipath. Not only there is clear multipath repeatability in the residuals, but it also appears in the measures SNR, MP1 and MP2, reaching up 99% of correlation. For reduction, at least, of the high frequency multipath effect, the Multi-Resolution Analysis using wavelets is applied in the double differences (DD) measures. Some statistical tests were accomplished, which indicate results improvement, and mainly, larger reliability in the solution of the ambiguities, reaching up 49% of improvement concerning the Ratio test without applying the proposed method.

Sustainable urban energy planning: The case study of a tropical city

The urbanization of modern societies has imposed to the planners and decision-makers a more precise attention to facts not considered before. Several aspects, such as the energy availability and the deleterious effect of pollution on the populations, must be considered in the policy decisions of cities urbanization. The current paradigm presents centralized power stations supplying a city, and a combination of technologies may compose the energy mix of a country, such as thermal power plants, hydroelectric plants, wind systems and solar-based systems, with their corresponding emission pattern. A goal programming multi-objective optimization model is presented for the electric expansion analysis of a tropical city, and also a case study for the city of Guaratinguetá, Brazil, considering a particular wind and solar radiation patterns established according to actual data and modeled via the time series analysis method. Scenarios are proposed and the results of single environmental objective, single economic objective and goal programming multi-objective modeling are discussed. The consequences of each dispatch decision, which considers pollutant emission exportation to the neighborhood or the need of supplementing electricity by purchasing it from the public electric power grid, are discussed. The results revealed energetic dispatch for the alternatives studied and the optimum environmental and economic solution was obtained. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Extração semi-automática de rodovias no espaço-objeto: uso integrado de um estéreo par de imagens aéreas e um MDT

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)