EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Risk of tuberculosis following HIV seroconversion in high-income countries

Background Few data exist on tuberculosis (TB) incidence according to time from HIV seroconversion in high-income countries and whether rates following initiation of a combination of antiretroviral treatments (cARTs) differ from those soon after seroconversion. Methods Data on individuals with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion were used to analyse post-seroconversion TB rates, ending at the earliest of 1 January 1997, death or last clinic visit. TB rates were also estimated following cART initiation, ending at the earliest of death or last clinic visit. Poisson models were used to examine the effect of current and past level of immunosuppression on TB risk after cART initiation. Results Of 19 815 individuals at risk during 1982–1996, TB incidence increased from 5.89/1000 person-years (PY) (95% CI 3.77 to 8.76) in the first year after seroconversion to 10.56 (4.83 to 20.04, p=0.01) at 10 years. Among 11 178 TB-free individuals initiating cART, the TB rate in the first year after cART initiation was 4.23/1000 PY (3.07 to 5.71) and dropped thereafter, remaining constant from year 2 onwards averaging at 1.64/1000 PY (1.29 to 2.05). Current CD4 count was inversely associated with TB rates, while nadir CD4 count was not associated with TB rates after adjustment for current CD4 count, HIV-RNA at cART initiation. Conclusions TB risk increases with duration of HIV infection in the absence of cART. Following cART initiation, TB incidence rates were lower than levels immediately following seroconversion. Implementation of current recommendations to prevent TB in early HIV infection could be beneficial.

When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. METHODS Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. RESULTS In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.

Experimental and theoretical study of motion of a barge as moored in ocean waves.

Mode of access: Internet.

Biruma butsuden : Bidandē-shi /

Mode of access: Internet.

Igorreko hizkeraren azterketa dialektologikoa

464 p.

Effects of water abstraction on stream ecosystem functioning

133 p.

Shortcuts to adiabaticity in the double well

123 p.