Numerical and experimental study of seepage in unconfined aquifers with a periodic boundary condition

The assessment of groundwater conditions within an unconfined aquifer with a periodic boundary condition is of interest in many hydrological and environmental problems. A two-dimensional numerical model for density dependent variably saturated groundwater flow, SUTRA (Voss, C.I., 1984. SUTRA: a finite element simulation model for saturated-unsaturated, fluid-density dependent ground-water flow with energy transport or chemically reactive single species solute transport. US Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, VA) is modified in order to be able to simulate the groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers affected by a periodic boundary condition. The basic flow equation is changed from pressure-form to mixed-form. The model is also adjusted to handle a seepage-face boundary condition. Experiments are conducted to provide data for the groundwater response to the periodic boundary condition for aquifers with both vertical and sloping faces. The performance of the numerical model is assessed using those data. The results of pressure- and mixed-form approximations are compared and the improvement achieved through the mixed-form of the equation is demonstrated. The ability of the numerical model to simulate the water table and seepage-face is tested by modelling some published experimental data. Finally the numerical model is successfully verified against present experimental results to confirm its ability to simulate complex boundary conditions like the periodic head and the seepage-face boundary condition on the sloping face. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Analysis of Age-at-Onset for Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Brazilian Family Study

Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Masseter muscle thickness three years after surgical correction of class III dentofacial deformity

Objective: To analyse the effect of integrated orthodontic treatment, orthognathic surgery and orofacial myofunctional therapy on masseter muscle thickness in patients with class III dentofacial deformity three years after orthognathic surgery. Design: A longitudinal study was conducted on 13 patients with class III dentofacial deformities, denoted here as group P1 (before surgery) and group P3 (same patients 3 years to 3 years and 8 months after surgery). Fifteen individuals with no changes in facial morphology or dental occlusion were assigned to the control group (CG). Masseter muscle ultrasonography was performed in the resting and biting situations in the three groups. Data were analysed statistically by a mixed-effects linear model considering a level of significance of P < 0.05. Results: Significantly higher values (P < 0.01) of masseter muscle thickness (cm) were detected in group P3 (right rest: 0.82 +/- 0.16, left rest: 0.87 +/- 0.21, right bite: 1 +/- 0.22, left bite: 1.04 +/- 0.28) compared to group P1 (right rest: 0.63 +/- 0.19, left rest: 0.64 +/- 0.15, right bite: 0.87 +/- 0.16, left bite: 0.88 +/- 0.14). Between P3 and CG (right rest: 1.02 +/- 0.19, left rest: 1 +/- 0.19, right bite: 1.18 +/- 0.22, left bite: 1.16 +/- 0.22) there was a significant difference on the right side of the muscle (P < 0.05) in both situations and on the left side at rest. Conclusion: The proposed treatment resulted in improved masseter muscle thickness in patients with class III dentofacial deformity. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The host-tourist interaction in a world heritage site: the case of Guimarães

Guimarães, in the northwest of Portugal, is a city of strong symbolic and cultural significance and its nomination by UNESCO as world heritage, in 2001, enlarged its tourism potential. In this paper we present a few results of a survey that envisaged capturing the Guimarães residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts and their attitudes towards tourists. Specifically, one analyzes the type of relationship that exists between some socio-demographic groups and the perceived tourism impacts, as well as their socio-characteristics and the existing level of interaction between residents and tourists. The survey was implemented between January and March 2010 to a convenience sample of 540 inhabitants of the municipality of Guimarães resulting in 400 questionnaires with complete data. For this, we made use of various statistical techniques. Using a factorial analysis, we can conclude that the three factors used explain 52.3% of the variance contained in the original variables obtained from the survey. By another side, using a logit model in the analysis and taking as the dependent variable the frequent or very frequent contact with tourists, we found that only the variables referred to perceived positive impacts of tourism, education and the place of residence in urban areas have shown to be statistically significant. We are aware of the multiple ways the issue of residents’ perceptions and attitudes towards tourism can be approached and of the difficulties to get useful policy-oriented insights. This paper is a step in that trail.

Estudo empírico sobre insolvências no setor de alojamento e restauração

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

The influence of the boundary conditions on low-velocity impact composite damage

The objective of this work was to study the influence of the boundary conditions on low-velocity impact behaviour of carbon-epoxy composite plates. Experimental work and numerical analysis were performed on [04,904]s laminates. The influence of different boundary conditions on the impacted plates was analysed considering rectangular and square plates. The X-radiography was used as a non-destructive technique to evaluate the internal damage caused by impact loading. A three-dimensional numerical analysis was also performed considering progressive damage modelling. The model includes three-dimensional solid elements and interface finite elements including a cohesive mixed-mode damage model, which allows simulating delamination between different oriented layers. It was verified that plate’s boundary conditions have influence on the delaminated area. Good agreement between experimental and numerical analysis for shape, orientation and size of the delamination was obtained.

Determinantes do estado de saúde dos Portugueses

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Privatização num mercado misto com decisões sequenciais

Consideramos um mercado no qual competem uma empresa pública e uma empresa privada, decidindo, de forma sequencial, as quantidades a produzir. O governo impõe um imposto sobre as quantidades comercializadas, de acordo com uma função que consiste numa soma ponderada entre o bem-estar público e a receita total obtida pela aplicação desse imposto. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar o efeito da privatização da empresa pública, (i) quando a empresa líder é a empresa pública; e (ii) quando a empresa líder é a empresa privada. Além disso, fazemos uma comparação entre os resultados obtidos nos dois modelos estudados.

Fossil fuel dependence and interfuel substitution in the electricity sector of Western European countries between 1990-2011

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Consumer satisfaction with water, wastewater and waste services in Portugal

While the concept of consumer satisfaction is a central topic in modern marketing theory and practice, citizens' satisfaction with public services, and especially water and waste services, is a eld that still remains empirically rather unexplored. The following study aims to contribute to this area by analysing the determinants of user satisfaction in the water, wastewater and waste sector in Portugal, using a unique survey of 1070 consumers undertaken by the Portuguese Water and Waste Regulator ERSAR. I perform an analysis of the relation between overall service satisfaction and attributespeci c service satisfaction with an ordered logit model. I then explore if subjective consumer satisfaction can be re ected by ERSAR's technical performance indicators. The results suggest that overall consumer satisfaction is driven by consumer's satisfaction with speci c service aspects but unrelated to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Furthermore, I show that there is no monotonic association between ERSAR's technical performance indicators and consumers' levels of satisfaction.

Economic development and changes in car ownership patterns

The contributions of this paper are twofold: On the one hand, the paper analyses the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades, and, on the other, the paper provides empirical evidence for a controversial methodological issue. From a methodological point of view, the paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modelling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990 and 2000. The study concludes that on the basis of forecasting performance, the multinomial logit model and the ordered probit model are almost undistinguishable. As for the empirical results, it can be emphasised that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirmed the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership.

Testing for Proportional Hazards with Unrestricted Univariate Unobserved Heterogeneity

We develop tests of the proportional hazards assumption, with respect to a continuous covariate, in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity with unknown distribution at the individual observation level. The proposed tests are specially powerful against ordered alternatives useful for modeling non-proportional hazards situations. By contrast to the case when the heterogeneity distribution is known up to …nite dimensional parameters, the null hypothesis for the current problem is similar to a test for absence of covariate dependence. However, the two testing problems di¤er in the nature of relevant alternative hypotheses. We develop tests for both the problems against ordered alternatives. Small sample performance and an application to real data highlight the usefulness of the framework and methodology.

A Salience Theory of Choice Errors

We study a psychologically based foundation for choice errors. The decision maker applies a preference ranking after forming a 'consideration set' prior to choosing an alternative. Membership of the consideration set is determined both by the alternative specific salience and by the rationality of the agent (his general propensity to consider all alternatives). The model turns out to include a logit formulation as a special case. In general, it has a rich set of implications both for exogenous parameters and for a situation in which alternatives can a¤ect their own salience (salience games). Such implications are relevant to assess the link between 'revealed' preferences and 'true' preferences: for example, less rational agents may paradoxically express their preference through choice more truthfully than more rational agents.

Stochastic Choice and Consideration Sets

We model a boundedly rational agent who suffers from limited attention. The agent considers each feasible alternative with a given (unobservable) probability, the attention parameter, and then chooses the alternative that maximises a preference relation within the set of considered alternatives. We show that this random choice rule is the only one for which the impact of removing an alternative on the choice probability of any other alternative is asymmetric and menu independent. Both the preference relation and the attention parameters are identi fied uniquely by stochastic choice data.

A dynamic assessment of medication-taking behavior during pregnancy and postpartum: should cART adherence be reinforced during postpartum?

This study compared adherence (persistence and execution) during pregnancy and postpartum in HIV-positive women having taken part in the adherence-enhancing program of the Community Pharmacy of the Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine in Lausanne between 2004 and 2012. This interdisciplinary program combined electronic drug monitoring and semi-structured, repeated motivational interviews. This was a retrospective, observational study. Observation period spread over from first adherence visit after last menstruation until 6 months after childbirth. Medication-taking was recorded by electronic drug monitoring. Socio-demographic and delivery data were collected from Swiss HIV Cohort database. Adherence data, barriers and facilitators were collected from pharmacy database. Electronic data were reconciled with pill-count and interview notes in order to include reported pocket-doses. Execution was analyzed over 3-day periods by a mixed effect logistic model, separating time before and after childbirth. This model allowed us to estimate different time slopes for both periods and to show a sudden fall associated with childbirth. Twenty-five pregnant women were included. Median age was 29 (IQR: 26.5, 32.0), women were in majority black (n_17,68%) and took a cART combining protease and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (n_24,96%). Eleven women (44%) were ART-naı¨ve at the beginning of pregnancy. Twenty women (80%) were included in the program because of pregnancy. Women were included at all stages of pregnancy. Six women (24%) stopped the program during pregnancy, 3 (12%) at delivery, 4 (16%) during postpartum and 12 (48%) stayed in program at the end of observation time. Median number of visits was 4 (3.0, 6.3) during pregnancy and 3 (0.8, 6.0) during postpartum. Execution was continuously high during pregnancy, low at beginning of postpartum and increased gradually during the 6 months of postpartum. Major barriers to adherence were medication adverse events and difficulties in daily routine. Facilitators were motivation for promoting child-health and social support. The dramatic drop and very slow increase in cART adherence during postpartum might result in viral rebound and drug resistance. Although much attention is devoted to pregnant women, interdisciplinary care should also be provided to women in the community during first trimester of postpartum to support them in sustaining cART adherence.