Improvements in Aerosol Optical Depth Estimation Using Multiangle CHRIS/PROBA Images

A method has been developed to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) over land surfaces using high spatial resolution, hyperspectral, and multiangle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS)/Project for On Board Autonomy (PROBA) images. The CHRIS instrument is mounted aboard the PROBA satellite and provides up to 62 bands. The PROBA satellite allows pointing to obtain imagery from five different view angles within a short time interval. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. This method has previously been demonstrated on data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer and is extended here to the spectral and angular sampling of CHRIS/PROBA. The values obtained from these observations are validated using ground-based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets show an rms error of 0.11 in AOD at 550 nm, which is reduced to 0.06 after an automatic screening procedure.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3 data

We develop a method to derive aerosol properties over land surfaces using combined spectral and angular information, such as available from ESA Sentinel-3 mission, to be launched in 2015. A method of estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3. The method aims to improve the estimation of AOD, and to explore the estimation of fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA) over land surfaces by inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model. The surface model includes a general physical model of angular and spectral surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values to the physical model. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground-based sun photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods: We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results: Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion: The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic parameters for milk yield analyzed by test-day models in Murrah buffaloes in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Factors affecting conception rates following artificial insemination or embryo transfer in lactating holstein cows

The objective of this study was to evaluate the factors that may affect conception rates (CR) following artificial insemination (AI) or embryo transfer (ET) in lactating Holstein cows. Estrous cycling cows producing 33.1 +/- 7.2 kg of milk/d received PGF(2 alpha) injections and were assigned randomly to 1 of 2 groups (AI or ET). Cows detected in estrus (n = 387) between 48 and 96 h after the PGF2a injection received AI (n = 227) 12 h after detection of estrus or ET (n = 160) 6 to 8 d later (1 fresh embryo, grade 1 or 2, produced from nonlactating cows). Pregnancy was diagnosed at 28 and 42 d after estrus, and embryonic loss occurred when a cow was pregnant on d 28 but not pregnant on d 42. Ovulation, conception, and embryonic loss were analyzed by a logistic model to evaluate the effects of covariates [days in milk (DIM), milk yield, body temperature (BT) at d 7 and 14 post-AI, and serum concentration of progesterone (P4) at d 7 and 14 post-AI] on the probability of success. The first analysis included all cows that were detected in estrus. The CR of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 32.6% vs. ET, 49.4%) and 42 (AI, 29.1% vs. ET, 38.8%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7) and DIM. The second analysis included only cows with a corpus luteum on d 7. Ovulation rate was 84.8% and was only negatively affected by DIM. Conception rates of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 37.9% vs. ET, 59.4%) and 42 (AI, 33.8% vs. ET, 46.6%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7). The third analysis included only ovulating cows that were 7 d postestrus. Conception rates of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 37.5% vs. ET, 63.2%) and 42 (AI, 31.7% vs. ET, 51.7%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7). There was a positive effect of serum concentration of P4 and a negative effect of milk production on the probability of conception for the AI group but not for the ET group. The fourth analysis was embryonic loss (AI, 10.8% vs. ET, 21.5%). The transfer of fresh embryos is an important tool to increase the probability of conception of lactating Holstein cows because it can bypass the negative effects of milk production and low P4 on the early embryo. The superiority of ET vs. AI is more evident in high-producing cows. High BT measured on d 7 had a negative effect on CR and embryonic retention.

Associations among milk production and rectal temperature on pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows

The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations among milk production, rectal temperature, and pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows. Data were collected during an 11-mo period from 463 Holstein cows (203 primiparous and 260 multiparous) assigned to a fixed-time embryo transfer (ET) protocol. Only cows detected with a visible corpus luteum immediately prior to ET were used. Rectal temperatures were collected from all cows on the same day of ET. Milk production at ET was calculated by averaging individual daily milk production during the 7 d preceding ET. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed by transrectal ultrasonography 21 d after ET. Cows were ranked and assigned to groups according to median milk production (median = 35 kg/d; HPROD = above median; LPROD = below median) and rectal temperature (<= 39.0 degrees C = LTEMP; >39.0 degrees C = HTEMP). A milk production x temperature group interaction was detected (P = 0.04) for pregnancy analysis because HTEMP cows ranked as LPROD were 3.1 time more likely to maintain pregnancy compared with HTEMP cows ranked as HPROD (P = 0.03). Milk production did not affect (P = 0.55) odds of pregnancy maintenance within LTEMP cows, however, and no differences in odds of pregnancy maintenance were detected between HTEMP and LTEMP within milk production groups (P > 0.11). Within HTEMP cows, increased milk production decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LTEMP cows, increased milk production increased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly. Within HPROD, increased rectal temperature decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LPROD cows, no associations between rectal temperatures and probability of cows to maintain pregnancy were detected. In summary, high-producing dairy cows with rectal temperatures below 39.0 degrees C did not experience reduced pregnancy maintenance to ET compared to cohorts with reduced milk production. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of progesterone-based protocols with gonadotropin-releasing hormone or estradiol benzoate for timed artificial insemination or embryo transfer in lactating dairy cows

The objective was to compare two protocols for synchronizing ovulation in lactating Holstein cows submitted to timed AI (TAI) or timed ET (TET). Within each farm (n = 8), cows (n = 883; mean +/- SEM 166.24 +/- 3.27 d postpartum, yielding 36.8 +/- 0.34 kg of milk/d) were randomly assigned to receive either: 1) an intravaginal progesterone insert (CIDR (R)) with 1.9 g of progesterone + GnRH on Day -10, CIDR (R) withdrawal + PGF2 alpha on Day -3, and 1 mg estradiol cypionate on Day -2 (treatment GP-P-E; n(TAI) = 180; n(TET) = 260); or 2) a CIDR (R) insert + 2 mg estradiol benzoate on Day -10, PGF2 alpha on Day -3, CIDR (R) withdrawal + 1 mg estradiol cypionate on Day -2 (treatment EP-P-E; n(TAI) = 174; n(TET) = 269). Cows were subsequently randomly assigned to receive either TAT on Day 0 or TET on Day 7. Serum progesterone concentration on Day -3 was greater in GP-P-E than in EP-P-E (2.89 +/- 0.15 vs 2.29 +/- 0.15 ng/mL; P < 0.01), with no significant effect of group on serum progesterone on Day 7. Compared to cows submitted to TAI, those submitted to TET had greater pregnancy rates on Day 28 (44.0% [233/5291 vs 29.7% [105/354]; p < 0.001) and on Day 60 (37.6% [199/529] vs 26.5 [94/354]; P < 0.001). However, there were no effects of treatments (GP-P-E vs EP-P-E; P > 0.10) on synchronization (87.0% [383/440] vs 85.3% [378/443]), conception (TAI: 35.3% [55/156] vs 33.8% [50/148]; TET: 50.7% [115/227] vs 51.3% [118/230]) and pregnancy rates on Days 28 (TAT: 30.5% [55/180] vs 28.7% 150/174]; TET: 44.2% [115/260] vs 43.9% [118/2691) and 60 (TAI: 27.2% [49/80] vs 25.9% [45/174]; TET: 38.8% [101/260] vs 36.4% [98/269]). In conclusion, GP-P-E increased serum progesterone concentrations on Day -3, but rates of synchronization, conception, and pregnancy were not significantly different between cows submitted to GP-P-E and EP-P-E protocols, regardless of whether they were inseminated or received an embryo. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of postbreeding gonadotropin treatments on conception rates of lactating dairy cows subjected to timed artificial insemination or embryo transfer in a tropical environment

The objective of experiment 1 was to evaluate the effects of treatments with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) or GnRH 7 d after induced ovulation on reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows submitted to timed artificial insemination (TAI) or timed embryo transfer (TET). A total of 834 potential breedings were used from 661 lactating Holstein cows (37.3 +/- 0.3 kg of milk/d). Cows had ovulation synchronized and were assigned randomly to receive TAI on d 0 or TET on d 7. Within each group, cows were assigned randomly to receive on d 7 no additional treatment (control; n(TAI) = 156; n(TET) = 126), a 100 mu g i.m. injection of GnRH (n(TAI) = 155; n(TET) = 124), or a 2,500 TU i.m. injection of hCG (ITA = 151; n(TET) = 122). Postbreeding treatment affected the percentages of pregnant cows at TET on d 28 (control: 38.1%; GnRH: 52.4%; hCG: 45.1%) and on d 60 (control: 32.5%; GnRH: 41.1%; hCG: 38.5%), but postbreeding treatment did not affect percentages of pregnant cows at TAT on d 28 (control: 30.1%; GnRH: 32.2%; hCG: 32.4%) or on d 60 (control: 25.6%; GnRH: 27.1%; hCG: 29.8%). The objective of experiment 2 was to evaluate the effect of a treatment with GnRH 7 d after TET on reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows that received a previous GnRH treatment at TET. A total of 285 potential breedings were used from 257 lactating Holstein cows (35.1 +/- 0.8 kg of milk/d). Cows had ovulation synchronized and were assigned for TET on d 7. Immediately after TET, all cows were treated with a 100 mu g i.m. injection of GnRH. on d 14, cows were assigned randomly to receive (G7-14; n = 147) or not (G7; n = 138) an additional injection of GnRH. Pregnancy diagnosis were performed on d 28 and 60. The additional treatment with GnRH on d 14 did not affect the percentages of pregnant cows on d 28 (G7: 48.5%; G7-14: 42.9%) or on d 60 (G7: 39.8%; G7-14: 37.4%). In conclusion, treatment with GnRH or hCG 7 d after induced ovulation increased conception rates in lactating dairy cows submitted to TET, but not in cows submitted to TAI. Moreover, treatment with GnRH 7 d after TET did not enhance reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows that received a previous GnRH treatment at TET.

Estimation of the volumetric oxygen tranfer coefficient (KLa) from the gas balance and using a neural network technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of population profiles of two strains of the fly Megaselia scalaris (Diptera: Phoridae) by bootstrap simulation

A partir de perfis populacionais experimentais de linhagens do díptero forídeo Megaselia scalaris, foi determinado o número mínimo de perfis amostrais que devem ser repetidos, via processo de simulação bootstrap, para se ter uma estimativa confiável do perfil médio populacional e apresentar estimativas do erro-padrão como medida da precisão das simulações realizadas. Os dados originais são provenientes de populações experimentais fundadas com as linhagens SR e R4, com três réplicas cada, e que foram mantidas por 33 semanas pela técnica da transferência seriada em câmara de temperatura constante (25 ± 1,0ºC). A variável usada foi tamanho populacional e o modelo adotado para cada perfíl foi o de um processo estocástico estacionário. Por meio das simulações, os perfis de três populações experimentais foram amplificados, determinando-se, dessa forma, o tamanho mínimo de amostra. Fixado o tamanho de amostra, simulações bootstrap foram realizadas para construção de intervalos de confiança e comparação dos perfis médios populacionais das duas linhagens. Os resultados mostram que com o tamanho de amostra igual a 50 inicia-se o processo de estabilização dos valores médios.

Heat transfer in fixed bed: a model non-linearity approach

Studies have been carried out on the heat transfer in a packed bed of glass beads percolated by air at moderate flow rates. Rigorous statistic analysis of the experimental data was carried out and the traditional two parameter model was used to represent them. The parameters estimated were the effective radial thermal conductivity, k, and the wall coefficient, h, through the least squares method. The results were evaluated as to the boundary bed inlet temperature, T-o, number of terms of the solution series and number of experimental points used in the estimate. Results indicated that a small difference in T-o was sufficient to promote great modifications in the estimated parameters and in the statistical properties of the model. The use of replicas at points of high parametric information of the model improved the results, although analysis of the residuals has resulted in the rejection of this alternative. In order to evaluate cion-linearity of the model, Bates and Watts (1988) curvature measurements and the Box (1971) biases of the coefficients were calculated. The intrinsic curvatures of the model (IN) tend to be concentrated at low bed heights and those due to parameter effects (PE) are spread all over the bed. The Box biases indicated both parameters as responsible for the curvatures PE, h being somewhat more problematic. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

A two phase flow nonlinear parameter estimation for capillary tube-suction line heat exchanger

Here we present two-phase flow nonlinear parameter estimation for HFC's flow through capillary tube-suction line heat exchangers, commonly used as expansion devices in small refrigeration systems. The simplifying assumptions adopted are: steady state, pure refrigerant, one-dimensional flow, negligible axial heat conduction in the fluid, capillary tube and suction line walls. Additionally, it is considered that the refrigerant is free from oil and both phases are assumed to be at the same pressure, that is, surface tension effects are neglected. Metastable flow effects are also disregarded, and the vapor is assumed to be saturated at the local pressure. The so-called homogeneous model, involving three, first order, ordinary differential equations is applied to analyze the two-phase flow region. Comparison is done with experimental measurements of the mass flow rate and temperature distribution along capillary tubes working with refrigerant HFC-134a in different operating conditions.