The Economic Impact of Sanctions against Russia: Much ado about very little. CEPS Commentary, November 2015

The decision process leading to the imposition of sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea and its subsequent military intervention in Eastern Ukraine has been very difficult for the EU, with some member states claiming that they have been particularly hard hit because exports to Russia are important to their economies. This commentary shows, however, that the economic cost in terms of lost exports, and thus potentially jobs, has in reality been negligible.

European security after the Paris attacks. CEPS Commentary, 24 November 2015

The November 13th terrorist attacks in Paris have prompted the European Union to activate the mutual assistance clause contained in Art. 42.7 of the EU Treaty. Member states are now entering the unchartered territory of large-scale conflict: will they join a French-led coalition of the willing, or is the military intervention against Daesh being Europeanised? This Commentary explores implications of the Paris attacks on European security and recommends coordinated and comprehensive responses to be taken within the EU framework.

El Congreso de Tucumán, el movimiento de pueblo de La Rioja y la intervención militar de Alejandro Heredia : ¿Escenas del enfrenamiento entre centralistas y federales en el Interior de las Provincias Unidas?

El presente artículo analiza la conflictividad política en La Rioja a partir del "movimiento de pueblo", encabezado por Javier Villafañe en abril de 1816, y que buscaba reemplazar al Gobernador Ramón Brizuela y Doria. Estos sucesos, que tuvieron lugar en simultáneo al inicio de las sesiones del Congreso de Tucumán, estuvieron vinculados a la expansión de las ideas federales y autonomistas en el interior de las Provincias Unidas y a las disputas que se produjeron en torno a la organización política del nuevo estado y en torno quien debía asumir la conducción del proceso revolucionario. Nos aproximamos a esta cuestión a partir del análisis de la documentación que generó la comisión del teniente coronel Alejandro Heredia, designado para restablecer el orden en La Rioja, pero también, a partir del análisis de las intervenciones de las autoridades centrales y del gobernador de Córdoba. Para eso, hemos trabajado con material existente en el Archivo General de la Nación, en el Archivo Histórico de la Provincia de Córdoba y diversa documentación editada referida al Congreso de Tucumán

El Congreso de Tucumán, el movimiento de pueblo de La Rioja y la intervención militar de Alejandro Heredia : ¿Escenas del enfrenamiento entre centralistas y federales en el Interior de las Provincias Unidas?

El presente artículo analiza la conflictividad política en La Rioja a partir del "movimiento de pueblo", encabezado por Javier Villafañe en abril de 1816, y que buscaba reemplazar al Gobernador Ramón Brizuela y Doria. Estos sucesos, que tuvieron lugar en simultáneo al inicio de las sesiones del Congreso de Tucumán, estuvieron vinculados a la expansión de las ideas federales y autonomistas en el interior de las Provincias Unidas y a las disputas que se produjeron en torno a la organización política del nuevo estado y en torno quien debía asumir la conducción del proceso revolucionario. Nos aproximamos a esta cuestión a partir del análisis de la documentación que generó la comisión del teniente coronel Alejandro Heredia, designado para restablecer el orden en La Rioja, pero también, a partir del análisis de las intervenciones de las autoridades centrales y del gobernador de Córdoba. Para eso, hemos trabajado con material existente en el Archivo General de la Nación, en el Archivo Histórico de la Provincia de Córdoba y diversa documentación editada referida al Congreso de Tucumán

The responsibility to protect and the crisis in Darfur

Governments that have endorsed the 'sovereignty as responsibility' approach have shown little inclination to protect civilians suffering at the hands of their own government in the Sudanese province of Darfur. After providing an overview of Darfur's crisis and international society's feeble response, we explore why the strongest advocates of 'sovereignty as responsibility', the NATO and EU states, failed to seriously contemplate military intervention. We suggest that three main factors help explain the West's unwillingness to intervene in Darfur: increased scepticism about the West's humanitarian interventionism, especially after the invasion of Iraq; Western strategic interests in Sudan; and the relationship between the crisis in Darfur and Sudan's other civil wars. We conclude that the emerging norm of humanitarian intervention remains weak and strongly contested, and that advocates of the 'responsibility to protect' approach have yet to persuade their governments to help save populations in danger.

The multiple dimensions of political trust in democratic Argentina

Why do Argentines continue to support democracy despite distrusting political institutions and politicians? Support for democracy is high even though performance of the regime is poor. One would suspect that poor economic and political performance would open the door for military intervention given the history of Argentina. What changed? What explains variance across the multiple dimensions of political trust, such as trust in the regime, trust in political institutions, and trust in politicians? This dissertation is a case study of political culture through public opinion exploring the multiple dimensions of political trust in Argentina during the 1990s. ^ Variance across the different dimensions of political trust may be an indicator of the rise of a new type of citizens called "critical citizens." Critical citizens are citizens who criticize the regime to obtain democratic reforms but support the ideals of democracy. In established democracies, the rise of critical citizens is explained by a shift in individuals' value priorities towards postmaterialism. Postmaterialism is a cultural change in the direction of values that emphasize self-realization and individual well-being. Postmaterialism influences various social and political attitudes. ^ Because Argentina is experiencing a cultural change and a rise of critical citizens similar to more advanced societies, the theory of postmaterialism generated the main hypothesis to explain the multiple dimensions of political trust. This dissertation also tested an alternative explanation: the multiple dimensions of political trust responded instead to citizens' evaluations of performance. Ultimately, postmaterialism explained trust in the political regime and trust in the political institutions. Contrary to expectations, postmaterialism did not explain trust in the political elites or politicians. Trust in politicians was better explained by the alternative hypothesis, performance. ^ The main method of research was the statistical method supplemented with the comparative method when data were available. Two main databases were used: the World Values Surveys and the Latinobarometer. ^

Impact of the Afghan refugees on Pakistan

There was a massive influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan following the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979. An attempt has been made here to analyze the political, ethnic, economic and social ramifications of the Afghan refugees on Pakistan. Among the consequences of the presence of Afghan refugees are: 1. A heavy burden on Pakistan's resources on account of sustaining the 2.8 million Afghan refugees 2. Friction between Afghan refugees and the Pakistani population, due to land, employment, animal grazing-pasture and water-supply disputes, and 3. A direct threat to Pakistan's internal security and political stability, which is made evident by numerous violations of Pakistan's western borders by Soviet-Afghan air and ground forces in pursuit of the refugees and Afghan Mujahidin. The political talks on the Afghan crisis are deadlocked on the question of a Soviet troop withdrawal. The Soviets and Afghans insist on the stoppage of foreign support to the Afghan counterrevolutionaries. The refugees in Pakistan will not return to their homes unless they are insured a safe and honorable life by the Afghan government.

"Everything was designed to make sure that this thing endured" : Processus de légitimation et la Responsabilité de protéger

L’objet de cette thèse est la « Responsabilité de protéger » (RdP), son émergence et les processus de légitimation qui ont contribué à son acceptation dans les arènes de la politique globale. Le principe d’une intervention militaire à des fins humanitaires gagne en légitimité dans les années 1990, bien qu’il soit marqué par d’intenses polémiques dans la pratique. Les situations de conflits où les civils sont brutalement persécutés et les interventions demandées et organisées pour y répondre sont maintenant largement justifiées dans les termes de la RdP. Est donc apparu d’abord un changement normatif. Ce changement s’est cristallisé dans le rapport de la Commission internationale sur l’intervention et la souveraineté des États (CIISE) qui a forgé l’expression « responsabilité de protéger ». Le point de départ ici est cependant que la RdP marque un changement discursif dans la manière de parler et de justifier ces pratiques. Je montre comment les termes de la RdP en sont venus à être ceux qui dégagent le plus large consensus autour de la question de l’intervention à des fins humanitaires. La thèse centrale de cette recherche est que le relatif succès de la RdP tient au fait que les architectes de la CIISE et les entrepreneurs de la RdP ont déployé un sens pratique aiguisé du champ de la politique globale. Le procédé principal employé est de mettre en lumière les processus de légitimation activement mis en oeuvre pour stimuler ce changement discursif. J’avance que les agents ont su placer la RdP, et par extension le principe de l’intervention à des fins humanitaires, dans le domaine du non problématique en déployant un langage et des pratiques vus comme ne posant pas problème. Concrètement, il s’est agi de choisir les agents à qui serait accordée la reconnaissance de parler, mais qui seraient aussi en mesure de proposer une solution d’une manière considérée comme légitime dans les arènes de la politique globale. Traquer les processus de légitimation est un procédé analytique qui permet de comprendre le succès de la RdP, mais qui révèle également des éléments fondamentaux du fonctionnement formel et informel de la politique globale.

The geo-historical legacies of urban security governance and the Vancouver 2010 Olympics

In 2004, the discourse of ‘legacy’ was woven into the constitutional fabric of the International Olympic Committee (IOC). Bidding for Olympic events is now premised on procuring post-event legacies that will resonate through local communities and host countries long after the flame is extinguished. Given vast expenditures in security, policing, and emergency management operations at major sporting events, it is notable that the IOC and its official partners have disproportionately under-represented security and policing legacies. This paper addresses research into security and policing legacies of major events by turning much needed empirical attention towards institutional level geographies of security and policing – particularly on legacies of policing and militarisation in Olympic host cities. Accordingly, the paper traces the institutional trajectory of the Military Liaison Unit (MLU) in the Vancouver Police Department who were heavily involved in coordinating the joint civilian–military effort throughout the lifecycle of the Vancouver 2010 inter Games. Theoretically, the paper furthers Stephen Graham’s (2010) New Military Urbanism that considers the circulation of military expertise between neo-colonial frontiers of military intervention with Western urban spaces. In doing so, this paper unpacks an empirically guided temporal approach that discerns key drivers of militarisation as localised, empirical-based ‘trajectories’ of development of security and policing institutions, which are linked to, and circumscribed by, critical juncture episodes in the context of mega event security. The paper traces processes of the MLU to explain how conditions underpinning the civil–military divide in urban policing, as a series of jurisdictional, institutional, and by extension, geographical configurations have continued, changed or been abandoned in the context of the Vancouver 2010 Olympics. As such, this paper contributes to much needed debate on the controversies and opportunities inherent in security legacies and major events, which implicate the wider securitisation and militarisation of Western cities.

Alcances y limitaciones del tercer pilar de la doctrina de responsabilidad de proteger en la intervención militar de la crisis Libia (2011-2013)

El siguiente trabajo de investigación pretende analizar no solo la manera en la que la Intervención en la crisis Libia (2011-2013) se vio justificada a la luz de lo que establece la Doctrina de R2P, sino también investigar si logró cumplir con los objetivos de la misma. Con tal propósito, se evaluará si la intervención Militar Humanitaria por parte de la OTAN bajo la resolución 1973 del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, se justifica desde los objetivos que establece la Doctrina de Responsabilidad de Proteger y cumple parcialmente con los propósitos fundamentales de prevenir, reaccionar y reconstruir en la crisis Libia de 2011- 2013. El método que se utilizará para responder a la pregunta de este estudio de caso, será en su totalidad cualitativo, descriptivo y analítico. En lo que respecta a las fuentes, se usarán fuentes secundarias como artículos académicos y fuentes primarias provenientes de noticias de periódicos, revistas, resoluciones AG y del CS de la ONU.

El fortalecimiento de organizacones terroristas en África a partir de la descentralización de Al Qaeda (2006-2013) a la luz de la teoría de guerra en red

El objetivo de esta monografía es analizar el proceso de descentralización de Al Qaeda a causa del debilitamiento de su centro en Afganistán por la intervención militar de la coalición occidental. Se estudia como Al Qaeda deja de ser una organización jerárquica, comenzando a organizarse en red. Estas trasformaciones se pueden explicar a la luz de los principales postulados de la teoría de Guerra en Red, que incluyen la falta de un liderazgo central, y la distribución en enjambre para atacar. Siguiendo la línea argumentativa, finalmente se demuestra que mediante la expansión de la red, Al Qaeda aún bajo su situación de debilidad ha mantenido vigente la yihad trasnacional a través de las organizaciones filiales en África.

Las empresas energéticas y la gran estrategia estadounidense hacia Irak : una reflexión sobre el rol de Exxon Mobil y Chevron como grupos económicos y de presión (2001- 2011)

La monografía pretende explicar el rol desempeñado por Exxon Mobil y Chevron en la formulación de la Gran Estrategia del gobierno Bush hacia Irak. Especialmente, se sostiene que las dos compañías multinacionales mencionadas lograron que la intervención militar en Irak, fuera pensada como un objetivo fundamental de la política energética del gobierno Bush. Para lograr este objetivo, Chevron y Exxon aprovecharon principalmente su posición en la economía nacional estadounidense. De hecho, lograron celebrar contratos a largo plazo para la extracción del crudo y de gas en Irak. Fundamentándose en un análisis documental, estas compañías son analizadas como grupos de presión empresarial y grupos económicos, cuyos beneficios derivados de la invasión en Irak pueden encontrarse incluso durante el gobierno Obama.

Detecting conflictive cultural factors in complex scenarios of intervention: Military and local actors in interaction

The integration of cultural elements into the operational planning process is a complex task that requires practical and theroretical tools for a wide comprehension of the context to help solve the problem. This article shows the results of an empirical research which presents conflicting cultural factors as the starting point for the construction of mediating structures. The main result of our research is a partial cognitive structure, a system of ideas, represented in a template listing the basic conflictive factors at the tactical level that military could find in the development of their tasks. The template is also a valuable aid to design military training curricula and to be applied to any post-conflict stability operation in complex environments resulting from irregular or asymmetric conflicts.

Fatigue fractures in military conscripts : A study on risk factors, diagnostics and long-term consequences

Fatigue fracture is an overuse injury commonly encountered in military and sports medicine, and known to relate to intensive or recently intensified physical activity. Bone responds to increased stress by enhanced remodeling. If physical stress exceeds bone s capability to remodel, accumulation of microfractures can lead to bone fatigue and stress fracture. Clinical diagnosis of stress fractures is complex and based on patient s anamnesis and radiological imaging. Bone stress fractures are mostly low-risk injuries, healing well after non-operative management, yet, occurring in high-risk areas, stress fractures can progress to displacement, often necessitating surgical treatment and resulting in prolonged morbidity. In the current study, the role of vitamin D as a predisposing factor for fatigue fractures was assessed using serum 25OHD level as the index. The average serum 25OHD concentration was significantly lower in conscripts with fatigue fracture than in controls. Evaluating TRACP-5b bone resorption marker as indicator of fatigue fractures, patients with elevated serum TRACP-5b levels had eight times higher probability of sustaining a stress fracture than controls. Among the 154 patients with exercise induced anterior lower leg pain and no previous findings on plain radiography, MRI revealed a total of 143 bone stress injuries in 86 patients. In 99% of the cases, injuries were in the tibia, 57% in the distal third of the tibial shaft. In patients with injury, forty-nine (57%) patients exhibited bilateral stress injuries. In a 20-year follow-up, the incidence of femoral neck fatigue fractures prior to the Finnish Defence Forces new regimen in 1986 addressing prevention of these fractures was 20.8/100,000, but rose to 53.2/100,000 afterwards, a significant 2.6-fold increase. In nineteen subjects with displaced femoral neck fatigue fractures, ten early local complications (in first postoperative year) were evident, and after the first postoperative year, osteonecrosis of the femoral head in six and osteoarthritis of the hip in thirteen patients were found. It seems likely that low vitamin D levels are related to fatigue fractures, and that an increasing trend exists between TRACP-5b bone resorption marker elevation and fatigue fracture incidence. Though seldom detected by plain radiography, fatigue fractures often underlie unclear lower leg stress-related pain occurring in the distal parts of the tibia. Femoral neck fatigue fractures, when displaced, lead to long-term morbidity in a high percentage of patients, whereas, when non-displaced, they do not predispose patients to subsequent adverse complications. Importantly, an educational intervention can diminish the incidence of fracture displacement by enhancing awareness and providing instructions for earlier diagnosis of fatigue fractures.

The British Intervention in South Russia 1918-1920

Soon after the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, a three-year civil war broke out in Russia. As in many other civil wars, foreign powers intervened in the conflict. Britain played a leading role in this intervention and had a significant effect on the course of the war. Without this intervention on the White side, the superiority of numbers in manpower and weaponry of the Bolsheviks would have quickly overwhelmed their opponents. The aim of this dissertation is to explain the nature and role of the British intervention on the southern, and most decisive, front of the Civil War. The political decision making in London is studied as a background, but the focus of the dissertation is on the actual implementation of the British policy in Russia. The British military mission arrived in South Russia in late 1918, and started to provide General Denikin s White army with ample supplies. General Denikin would have not been able to build his army of more than 200,000 men or to make his operation against Moscow without the British matériel. The British mission also organized the training and equipping of the Russian troops with British weapons. This made the material aid much more effective. Many of the British instructors took part in fighting the Bolsheviks despite the orders of their government. The study is based on primary sources produced by British departments of state and members of the British mission and military units in South Russia. Primary sources from the Whites, including the personal collections of several key figures of the White movement and official records of the Armed Forces of South Russia are also used to give a balanced picture of the course of events. It is possible to draw some general conclusions from the White movement and reasons for their defeat from the study of the British intervention. In purely material terms the British aid placed Denikin s army in a far more favourable position than the Bolsheviks in 1919, but other military defects in the White army were numerous. The White commanders were unimaginative, their military thinking was obsolete, and they were incapable of organizing the logistics of their army. There were also fundamental defects in the morale of the White troops. In addition to all political mistakes of Denikin s movement and a general inability to adjust to the complex situation in Revolutionary Russia, the Whites suffered a clear military defeat. In South Russia the Whites were defeated not because of the lack of British aid, but rather in spite of it.