Mixture Cure Survival Models with Dependent Censoring

A number of authors have studies the mixture survival model to analyze survival data with nonnegligible cure fractions. A key assumption made by these authors is the independence between the survival time and the censoring time. To our knowledge, no one has studies the mixture cure model in the presence of dependent censoring. To account for such dependence, we propose a more general cure model which allows for dependent censoring. In particular, we derive the cure models from the perspective of competing risks and model the dependence between the censoring time and the survival time using a class of Archimedean copula models. Within this framework, we consider the parameter estimation, the cure detection, and the two-sample comparison of latency distribution in the presence of dependent censoring when a proportion of patients is deemed cured. Large sample results using the martingale theory are obtained. We applied the proposed methodologies to the SEER prostate cancer data.

Quasi-Self-Dual Exponential Lévy Processes

The important application of semistatic hedging in financial markets naturally leads to the notion of quasi--self-dual processes. The focus of our study is to give new characterizations of quasi--self-duality. We analyze quasi--self-dual Lévy driven markets which do not admit arbitrage opportunities and derive a set of equivalent conditions for the stochastic logarithm of quasi--self-dual martingale models. Since for nonvanishing order parameter two martingale properties have to be satisfied simultaneously, there is a nontrivial relation between the order and shift parameter representing carrying costs in financial applications. This leads to an equation containing an integral term which has to be inverted in applications. We first discuss several important properties of this equation and, for some well-known Lévy-driven models, we derive a family of closed-form inversion formulae.

A nova família de distribuições odd log-logística: teoria e aplicações

Neste trabalho, foi proposta uma nova família de distribuições, a qual permite modelar dados de sobrevivência quando a função de risco tem formas unimodal e U (banheira). Ainda, foram consideradas as modificações das distribuições Weibull, Fréchet, half-normal generalizada, log-logística e lognormal. Tomando dados não-censurados e censurados, considerou-se os estimadores de máxima verossimilhança para o modelo proposto, a fim de verificar a flexibilidade da nova família. Além disso, um modelo de regressão locação-escala foi utilizado para verificar a influência de covariáveis nos tempos de sobrevida. Adicionalmente, conduziu-se uma análise de resíduos baseada nos resíduos deviance modificada. Estudos de simulação, utilizando-se de diferentes atribuições dos parâmetros, porcentagens de censura e tamanhos amostrais, foram conduzidos com o objetivo de verificar a distribuição empírica dos resíduos tipo martingale e deviance modificada. Para detectar observações influentes, foram utilizadas medidas de influência local, que são medidas de diagnóstico baseadas em pequenas perturbações nos dados ou no modelo proposto. Podem ocorrer situações em que a suposição de independência entre os tempos de falha e censura não seja válida. Assim, outro objetivo desse trabalho é considerar o mecanismo de censura informativa, baseado na verossimilhança marginal, considerando a distribuição log-odd log-logística Weibull na modelagem. Por fim, as metodologias descritas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados reais.

Testing Independence in High Dimensions & Identifiability of Graphical Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Testing for financial crashes using the Log Periodic Power Law model

Many papers claim that a Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model fitted to financial market bubbles that precede large market falls or 'crashes', contains parameters that are confined within certain ranges. Further, it is claimed that the underlying model is based on influence percolation and a martingale condition. This paper examines these claims and their validity for capturing large price falls in the Hang Seng stock market index over the period 1970 to 2008. The fitted LPPLs have parameter values within the ranges specified post hoc by Johansen and Sornette (2001) for only seven of these 11 crashes. Interestingly, the LPPL fit could have predicted the substantial fall in the Hang Seng index during the recent global downturn. Overall, the mechanism posited as underlying the LPPL model does not do so, and the data used to support the fit of the LPPL model to bubbles does so only partially. © 2013.

Bootstrap for Critical Branching Process with Non-Stationary Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80, Secondary 62F12, 60G99.

A Modified Model of Risk Business

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K10, 62P05

THE STOCHASTIC NAVIER STOKES EQUATIONS FOR HEAT CONDUCTING, COMPRESSIBLE FLUIDS

This dissertation is devoted to the equations of motion governing the evolution of a fluid or gas at the macroscopic scale. The classical model is a PDE description known as the Navier-Stokes equations. The behavior of solutions is notoriously complex, leading many in the scientific community to describe fluid mechanics using a statistical language. In the physics literature, this is often done in an ad-hoc manner with limited precision about the sense in which the randomness enters the evolution equation. The stochastic PDE community has begun proposing precise models, where a random perturbation appears explicitly in the evolution equation. Although this has been an active area of study in recent years, the existing literature is almost entirely devoted to incompressible fluids. The purpose of this thesis is to take a step forward in addressing this statistical perspective in the setting of compressible fluids. In particular, we study the well posedness for the corresponding system of Stochastic Navier Stokes equations, satisfied by the density, velocity, and temperature. The evolution of the momentum involves a random forcing which is Brownian in time and colored in space. We allow for multiplicative noise, meaning that spatial correlations may depend locally on the fluid variables. Our main result is a proof of global existence of weak martingale solutions to the Cauchy problem set within a bounded domain, emanating from large initial datum. The proof involves a mix of deterministic and stochastic analysis tools. Fundamentally, the approach is based on weak compactness techniques from the deterministic theory combined with martingale methods. Four layers of approximate stochastic PDE's are built and analyzed. A careful study of the probability laws of our approximating sequences is required. We prove appropriate tightness results and appeal to a recent generalization of the Skorohod theorem. This ultimately allows us to deduce analogues of the weak compactness tools of Lions and Feireisl, appropriately interpreted in the stochastic setting.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

On the duration of negative surplus

Doutoramento em Matemática