Longitudinal research: methods for maximizing subject follow-up

Early intervention for hazardous alcohol use has been shown repeatedly to be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, limiting alcohol-related problems and improving biochemical parameters. However, in most studies the follow-up period has been 2 years or less. The current paper presents progress on a 10-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial of early intervention. Methods used for tracing subjects and ensuring minimal refusals are detailed. The intensity of effort required to locate subjects is documented and recommendations for ensuring good follow-up rates are made. At completion of follow-up, 72.5% of the sample reviewed here and 78.2% of the total cohort had been traced. Our experiences demonstrate that long-term follow-up is feasible, given sufficient planning and persistence.

Calcium accretion in girls and boys during puberty: A longitudinal analysis

The primary purpose of this study was to estimate the magnitude and variability of peak calcium accretion rates in the skeletons of healthy white adolescents. Total-body bone mineral content (BMC) was measured annually on six occasions by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; Hologic 2000, array mode), a BMC velocity curve was generated for each child by a cubic spline fit, and peak accretion rates were determined. Anthropometric measures were collected every 6 months and a 24-h dietary recall was recorded two to three times per year. Of the 113 boys and 115 girls initially enrolled in the study, 60 boys and 53 girls who had peak height velocity (PHV) and peak BMC velocity values were used in this longitudinal analysis. When the individual BR IC velocity curves were aligned on the age of peak bone mineral velocity, the resulting mean peak bone mineral accrual rate was 407 g/year for boys (SD, 92 g/year; range, 226-651 g/year) and 322 g/year for girls (SD, 66 g/year; range, 194-520 g/year). Using 32.2% as the fraction of calcium in bone mineral, as determined by neutron activation analysis (Ellis et al., J Bone Miner Res 1996;11:843-848), these corresponded to peak calcium accretion rates of 359 mg/day for boys (81 mg/day; 199-574 mg/day) and 284 mg/day for girls (58 mg/day; 171-459 mg/day). These longitudinal results are 27-34% higher than our previous cross-sectional analysis in which we reported mean values of 282 mg/day for boys and 212 mg/day for girls (Martin et al., Am J Clin Nutr 1997;66:611-615). Mean age of peak calcium accretion was 14.0 years for the boys (1.0 years; 12.0-15.9 years), and 12.5 years for the girls (0.9 years; 10.5-14.6 years). Dietary calcium intake, determined as the mean of all assessments up to the age of peak accretion was 1140 mg/day (SD, 392 mg/day) for boys and 1113 mg/day (SD, 378 mg/day) for girls. We estimate that 26% of adult calcium is laid down during the 2 adolescent years of peak skeletal growth. This period of rapid growth requires high accretion rates of calcium, achieved in part by increased retention efficiency of dietary calcium.

Iron deficiency, general health and fatigue: Results from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Associations between self-reported 'low iron', general health and well-being, vitality and tiredness in women, were examined using physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary and vitality (VT) scores from the MOS short-form survey (SF-36). 14,762 young (18-23 years) and 14,072 mid-age (45-50 years) women, randomly selected from the national health insurance commission (Medicare) database, completed a baseline mailed self-report questionnaire and 12,328 mid-age women completed a follow-up questionnaire 2 years later. Young and mid-age women who reported (ever) having had 'low iron' reported significantly lower mean PCS, MCS and VT scores, and greater prevalence of 'constant tiredness' at baseline than women with no history of iron deficiency [Differences: young PCS = -2.2, MCS = -4.8, VT = -8.7; constant tiredness: 67% vs. 45%; mid-age PCS = -1.4, MCS = -3.1, VT = -5.9; constant tiredness: 63% vs. 48%]. After adjusting for number of children, chronic conditions, symptoms and socio-demographic variables, mean PCS, MCS and VT scores for mid-age women at follow-up were significantly lower for women who reported recent iron deficiency (in the last 2 years) than for women who reported past iron deficiency or no history of iron deficiency [Means: PCS - recent = 46.6, past = 47.8, never = 47.7; MCS - recent = 45.4, past = 46.9, never = 47.4; VT - recent = 54.8, past = 57.6, never = 58.6]. The adjusted mean change in PCS, MCS and VT scores between baseline and follow-up were also significantly lower among mid-age women who reported iron deficiency only in the last 2 years (i.e. recent iron deficiency) [Mean change: PCS = -3.2; MCS = -2.1; VT = -4.2]. The results suggest that iron deficiency is associated with decreased general health and well-being and increased fatigue.

Ischaemic preconditioning in the rat brain: a longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study

Ischaemic preconditioning in rats was studied using MRI. Ischaemic preconditioning was induced, using an intraluminal filament method, by 30 min middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO), and imaged 24 h later. The secondary insult of 100 min MCAO was induced 3 days following preconditioning and imaged 24 and 72 h later. Twenty four hours following ischaemic preconditioning most rats showed small sub-cortical hyperintense regions not seen in sham-preconditioned rats. Twenty-four hours and 72 h following the secondary insult preconditioned animals showed significantly smaller lesions (24 h = 112 +/- 31 mm(3), mean +/- standard error; 72 h = 80 +/- 35 mm(3)) which were confined to the striatum, than controls (24 h = 234 +/- 32 mm(3), p = 0.026; 72 h = 275 +/- 37 mm(3), p = 0.003). In addition during Lesion maturation from 24 to 72 h post-secondary MCAO, preconditioned rats displayed an average reduction in lesion size as measured by MRI whereas sham-preconditioned rats displayed increases in lesion size; this is the first report of such differential lesion volume evolution in cerebral ischaemic preconditioning. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions for the critical Rayleigh numbers of different convective flow structures. Using these critical Rayleigh numbers, three interesting convective flow structures have been identified in a geological fault zone system. It has been recognized that the critical Rayleigh numbers of the system have a minimum value only for the fault zone of infinite length, in which the corresponding convective flow structure is a 2-D slender-circle flow. However, if the length of the fault zone is finite, the convective flow in the system must be 3-D. Even if the length of the fault zone is infinite, since the minimum critical Rayleigh number for the 2-D slender-circle flow structure is so close to that for the 3-D convective flow structure, the system may have almost the same chance to pick up the 3-D convective flow structures. Also, because the convection modes are so close for the 3-D convective flow structures, the convective flow may evolve into the 3-D finger-like structures, especially for the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching zero. This understanding demonstrates the beautiful aspects of the present analytical solution for the convective instability of 3-D geological fault zones, because the present analytical solution is valid for any value of the ratio of the fault height to thickness. Using the present analytical solution, the conditions, under which different convective flow structures may take place, can be easily determined.

Double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. The fault zone is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions to the total critical Rayleigh numbers of the double diffusion-driven convective flow. Using the corresponding total critical Rayleigh numbers, the double diffusion-driven convective instability of a fluid-saturated three-dimensional geological fault zone system has been investigated. The related theoretical analysis demonstrates that: (1) The relative higher concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can destabilize the convective flow of the system, while the relative lower concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can stabilize the convective flow of the system. (2) The double diffusion-driven convective flow modes of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system are very close each other and therefore, the system may have the similar chance to pick up different double diffusion-driven convective flow modes, especially in the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching 0. (3) The significant influence of the chemical species diffusion on the convective instability of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system implies that the seawater intrusion into the surface of the Earth is a potential mechanism to trigger the convective flow in the shallow three-dimensional geological fault zone system.

Numerical simulation of double-diffusion driven convective flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones

Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anthropometric measures in relation to Basal Cell Carcinoma: a longitudinal study

Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

Sequential Changes of Longitudinal and Radial Myocardial Deformation Indices in the Healthy Neonate Heart

Background: Significant hemodynamic changes, including preload and afterload modifications, occur during the transition from the fetal to the neonatal environment. The ductus arteriosus closes, pulmonary vascular resistance decreases, and pulmonary blood flow increases. Strain rate (SR) and strain (e) have been proposed as ultrasound indices for quantifying regional wall deformation. This study was designed to determine if these indices can detect variations in regional deformation between early and late neonatal periods. Methods: Data were obtained from 30 healthy neonates (15 male). The initial study was performed at a mean age of 20.1614 hours (exam 1) and the second at 31.962.9 days (exam 2). Apical and parasternal views were used to quantify regional left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal and radial SR and e, and systolic, early, and late diastolic values were calculated from these curves. A paired-samples t test was performed comparing the two groups. Results: Compared with exam 1, LV radial deformation showed significant reductions in peak systolic e in the basal and mid segments (51615% vs 4669%, P < .01). LV longitudinal deformation behaved similarly, showing significant peak systolic e reductions in all measured segments. Systolic SR showed reductions only in the basal and apical segments of the lateral wall and in the mid portion of the inferior wall (-1.9 +/- 0.5 vs -1.7 +/- 0.3 s(-1) and -1.9 +/- 0.4 vs -1.7 +/- 0.2 s(-1), respectively, P = .03). RV longitudinal free and inferior wall systolic SR and e values were significantly higher in exam 2. Conclusions: LV peak systolic e decreases in exam 2 were possibly due to afterload increase and preload decrease. The lower RV initial deformation indices could be attributed to increased afterload caused by physiologic pulmonary hypertension or immature RV contractile properties. SR seemed to be a more robust index than e and less influenced by preload and afterload hemodynamic alteration. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:294-300.)

A 1-year longitudinal study of severe traumatic brain injury in Australia using the Sickness Impact Profile

Objective: To document outcome and to investigate patterns of physical and psychosocial recovery in the first year following severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in an Australian patient sample. Design: A longitudinal prospective study of a cohort of patients, with data collection at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post injury. Setting: A head injury rehabilitation unit in a large metropolitan public hospital. Patients: A sample of 55 patients selected from 120 consecutive admissions with severe TBI. Patients who were more than 3 months post injury on admission, who remained confused, or who had severe communication deficits or a previous neurologic disorder were excluded. Interventions: All subjects participated in a multidisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation program, followed by varied participation in outpatient rehabilitation and community-based sen ices. Main Outcome Measures: The Sickness impact Profile (SIP) provided physical, psychosocial, and total dysfunction scores at each follow-up. Outcome at 1 year was measured by the Disability Rating Scale. Results: Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the linear trend of recovery over time was less for psychosocial dysfunction than for physical dysfunction (F(1,51) = 5.87, P < .02). One rear post injury, 22% of subjects had returned to their previous level of employability, and 42% were able to live independently. Conclusions: Recovery from TBI in this Australian sample followed a pattern similar to that observed in other countries, with psychosocial dysfunction being more persistent. Self-report measures such as the SIP in TBI research are limited by problems of diminished self-awareness.

MEDIAL LONGITUDINAL ARCH CHANGE IN DIABETIC PERIPHERAL NEUROPATHY

Objective: To describe and compare foot anthropometry in healthy and diabetic subjects using Medial Longitudinal Arch (MLA) classificatory indexes: Arch Index (AI), Chippaux-Smirak Index (CSI) and (A) over cap Angle ((A) over cap), as well as to compare the classification of these methods in each group. Materials and Methods: Control Group (CG) composed by 21 healthy subjects and Diabetic Group (DG), with 46 diabetic neuropathy subjects. The indexes were calculated from footprints. Results: A larger proportion of flat feet was seen in DG for the three indexes (At: 32,2%, CSI: 59,7%, A: 17,5%), while highly arched feet acted oppositely. The groups were statistically different for the proportion of flat feet in (A) over cap (p=0,0080) and CSI (p=0,0000) and high feet in A (p=0,0036). There were significant differences when compared GC and GD in the three indexes: IA (p 0,0027), CSI (p=0,0064), (A) over cap (p=0,0296). Conclusion: Data showed motor and orthopedic changes originated by peripheral neuropathy, which is responsible for foot changes, causing longitudinal arch crumbling. It was seen that A Angle strongly disagreed when compared with the arch classification made by the other two indexes and therefore, its application needs care.

Longitudinal Follow-Up of Bipolar Disorder in Women With Premenstrual Exacerbation: Findings From STEP-BD

Objective: The impact of hormonal fluctuation during the menstrual cycle on the course of bipolar disorder is poorly understood. The authors determined the course of illness and time to relapse of bipolar disorder in prospectively followed women with premenstrual exacerbation. Method: Participants were 293 premenopause-age women with bipolar disorder who were followed prospectively for 1 year as part of the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder. Frequency of mood episodes was compared between 191 women with premenstrual exacerbation (65.2%) and 102 women without. Among 129 women who were in recovered status at baseline, time to relapse was compared between 66 women with premenstrual exacerbation (51.2%) and 63 without. Results: During follow-up, the group with premenstrual exacerbation had more episodes (primarily depressive) than did the group without, but they were not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling during this period. In contrast, they were more likely to report rapid cycling retrospectively. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had a shorter time to relapse and were at greater risk for relapse, but this association was not significant after adjustment for retrospectively reported rapid cycling. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had more depressive and mood elevation symptoms overall. Conclusions: Women with bipolar disorder and premenstrual exacerbation have a worse course of illness, a shorter time to relapse, and greater symptom severity, but they are not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling. Premenstrual exacerbation may be a clinical marker predicting a more symptomatic and relapse-prone phenotype in reproductive-age women with bipolar disorder.

Childhood Trauma and Children`s Emerging Psychotic Symptoms: A Genetically Sensitive Longitudinal Cohort Study

Objective: Using longitudinal and prospective measures of trauma during childhood, the authors assessed the risk of developing psychotic symptoms associated with maltreatment, bullying, and accidents in a nationally representative U. K. cohort of young twins. Method: Data were from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, which follows 2,232 twin children and their families. Mothers were interviewed during home visits when children were ages 5, 7, 10, and 12 on whether the children had experienced maltreatment by an adult, bullying by peers, or involvement in an accident. At age 12, children were asked about bullying experiences and psychotic symptoms. Children`s reports of psychotic symptoms were verified by clinicians. Results: Children who experienced maltreatment by an adult (relative risk=3.16, 95% CI=1.92-5.19) or bullying by peers (relative risk=2.47, 95% CI=1.74-3.52) were more likely to report psychotic symptoms at age 12 than were children who did not experience such traumatic events. The higher risk for psychotic symptoms was observed whether these events occurred early in life or later in childhood. The risk associated with childhood trauma remained significant in analyses controlling for children`s gender, socioeconomic deprivation, and IQ; for children`s early symptoms of internalizing or externalizing problems; and for children`s genetic liability to developing psychosis. In contrast, the risk associated with accidents was small (relative risk=1.47, 95% CI=1.02-2.13) and inconsistent across ages. Conclusions: Trauma characterized by intention to harm is associated with children`s reports of psychotic symptoms. Clinicians working with children who report early symptoms of psychosis should inquire about traumatic events such as maltreatment and bullying.