Flower and seed biomass, and germination rate of arctic tundra plants in response to long term experimental warming

We provide new information on changes in tundra plant sexual reproduction in response to long-term (12 years) experimental warming in the High Arctic. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase growing season temperatures by 1-2 °C across a range of vascular plant communities. The warming enhanced reproductive effort and success in most species; shrubs and graminoids appeared to be more responsive than forbs. We found that the measured effects of warming on sexual reproduction were more consistently positive and to a greater degree in polar oasis compared with polar semidesert vascular plant communities. Our findings support predictions that long-term warming in the High Arctic will likely enhance sexual reproduction in tundra plants, which could lead to an increase in plant cover. Greater abundance of vegetation has implications for primary consumers - via increased forage availability, and the global carbon budget - as a function of changes in permafrost and vegetation acting as a carbon sink. Enhanced sexual reproduction in Arctic vascular plants may lead to increased genetic variability of offspring, and consequently improved chances of survival in a changing environment. Our findings also indicate that with future warming, polar oases may play an important role as a seed source to the surrounding polar desert landscape.

Long term low latitude and high elevation cosmogenic 3He production rate inferred from a 107 ka-old lava flow in northern Chile; 22°S-3400 m a.s.l

Available geological calibration sites used to estimate the rate at which cosmogenic 3He is produced at the Earth’s surface are mostly clustered in medium to high latitudes. Moreover, most of them have exposure histories shorter than tens of thousands of years. This lack of sites prevents a qualitative assessment of available production models used to convert cosmogenic 3He concentrations into exposure ages and/or denudation rates. It thus limits our ability to take into account the atmospheric, geomagnetic and solar modulation conditions that might have affected the production of cosmogenic nuclides in the past for longer exposure histories and in low latitude regions. We present the cosmogenic 3He production rate inferred from a new geological calibration site located in northern Chile. Five samples were collected on the surface of the largest and best-preserved lava flow of the San Pedro volcano (21.934°S-68.510°W- 3390 m a.s.l), which displays pristine crease-structure features. 40Ar/39Ar dating yield a reliable plateau age of 107±12 ka for the eruption of this lava flow. Eight pyroxene aliquots separated from the surface samples yield a weighted average cosmogenic 3He concentration of 99.3±1.2 Mat.g-1 from which a local cosmogenic 3He production rate of 928±101 at.g-1.yr-1 is calculated. The local production rate is then scaled to a sea level high latitude (SLHL) reference position using different combinations of geographic spatialization schemes, atmosphere models and geomagnetic field reconstructions, yielding SLHL production rates between 103±11 and 130±14 at.g-1.yr-1 consistent with the most recent estimates available from the literature. Finally, we use the same scaling frameworks to re-evaluate the mean global-scale cosmogenic 3He production rate in olivine and pyroxene minerals at 120±16 at.g-1.yr-1 from the compilation of previously published calibration datasets.

Long-term effects of land application of domestic wastewater : Roswell, New Mexico, slow rate irrigation site /

Mode of access: Internet.

Long-term effects of land application of domestic wastewater : Dickinson, North Dakota, slow rate irrigation site /

Mode of access: Internet.

Modeling long-term nominal interest rates /

"August 1995."

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Long-term fish community response to a reach-scale stream restoration

At a global scale, aquatic ecosystems are being altered by human activities at a greater rate than at any other time in history. In recent years, grassroots efforts have generated interest in the restoration of degraded or destroyed aquatic habitats, especially small wetlands and streams where such projects are feasible with local resources. We present ecological management lessons learned from 17 years of monitoring the fish community response to the channel relocation and reach-level restoration of Juday Creek, a 3rd-order tributary of the St. Joseph River in Indiana, USA. The project was designed to increase habitat complexity, reverse the effects of accumulated fine sediment (< 2 mm diameter), and mitigate for the impacts of a new golf course development. The 1997 restoration consisted of new channel construction within two reaches of a 1.2-km section of Juday Creek that also contained two control reaches. A primary social goal of the golf course development and stream restoration was to avoid harm to the non-native brown trout fishery, as symbolic of community concerns for the watershed. Our long-term monitoring effort revealed that, although fine sediment increased over time in the restored reaches, habitat conditions have promoted the resurgence of native fish species. Since restoration, the fish assemblage has shifted from non-native Salmonidae (brown trout, rainbow trout) to native Centrarchidae (rock bass, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass). In addition, native, nongame species have remained stable or have increased in population abundance (e.g., Johnny darter, mottled sculpin). The results of this study demonstrate the value of learning from a restoration project to adjust management decisions that enhance environmental quality.

Mechanisms Predisposing Penile Fracture And Long-term Outcomes On Erectile And Voiding Functions.

Purpose. To determine the mechanisms predisposing penile fracture as well as the rate of long-term penile deformity and erectile and voiding functions. Methods. All fractures were repaired on an emergency basis via subcoronal incision and absorbable suture with simultaneous repair of eventual urethral lesion. Patients' status before fracture and voiding and erectile functions at long term were assessed by periodic follow-up and phone call. Detailed history included cause, symptoms, and single-question self-report of erectile and voiding functions. Results. Among the 44 suspicious cases, 42 (95.4%) were confirmed, mean age was 34.5 years (range: 18-60), mean follow-up 59.3 months (range 9-155). Half presented the classical triad of audible crack, detumescence, and pain. Heterosexual intercourse was the most common cause (28 patients, 66.7%), followed by penile manipulation (6 patients, 14.3%), and homosexual intercourse (4 patients, 9.5%). Woman on top was the most common heterosexual position (n = 14, 50%), followed by doggy style (n = 8, 28.6%). Four patients (9.5%) maintained the cause unclear. Six (14.3%) patients had urethral injury and two (4.8%) had erectile dysfunction, treated by penile prosthesis and PDE-5i. No patient showed urethral fistula, voiding deterioration, penile nodule/curve or pain. Conclusions. Woman on top was the potentially riskiest sexual position (50%). Immediate surgical treatment warrants long-term very low morbidity.

Long-term Efficacy And Safety Of Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate In Hiv-1-infected Adolescents Failing Antiretroviral Therapy: The Final Results Of Study Gs-us-104-0321.

Reports of long-term tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) treatment in HIV-infected adolescents are limited. We present final results from the open-label (OL) TDF extension following the randomized, placebo (PBO)-controlled, double-blind phase of GS-US-104-0321 (Study 321). HIV-infected 12- to 17-year-olds treated with TDF 300 mg or PBO with an optimized background regimen (OBR) for 24-48 weeks subsequently received OL TDF plus OBR in a single arm study extension. HIV-1 RNA and safety, including bone mineral density (BMD), was assessed in all TDF recipients. Eighty-one subjects received TDF (median duration 96 weeks). No subject died or discontinued OL TDF for safety/tolerability. At week 144, proportions with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL were 30.4% (7 of 23 subjects with baseline HIV-1 RNA >1000 c/mL initially randomized to TDF), 41.7% (5 of 12 subjects with HIV-1 RNA <1000 c/mL who switched PBO to TDF) and 0% (0 of 2 subjects failed randomized PBO plus OBR with HIV-1 RNA >1000 c/mL and switched PBO to TDF). Viral resistance to TDF occurred in 1 subject. At week 144, median decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate was 38.1 mL/min/1.73 m (n = 25). Increases in median spine (+12.70%, n = 26) and total body less head BMD (+4.32%, n = 26) and height-age adjusted Z-scores (n = 21; +0.457 for spine, +0.152 for total body less head) were observed at week 144. Five of 81 subjects (6%) had persistent >4% BMD decreases from baseline. Some subjects had virologic responses to TDF plus OBR, and TDF resistance was rare. TDF was well tolerated and can be considered for treatment of HIV-infected adolescents.

Long-term Decline Of The Amazon Carbon Sink.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Surface Liming and Zinc Availability in a Long-Term Experiment under No-Till System

No-till (NT) system with crop rotation is one of the most effective strategies to improve agricultural sustainability in tropical and subtropical regions. To control soil acidity in NT, lime is broadcast on the surface without incorporation. The increase in soil pH due to surface liming may decrease zinc (Zn) availability and its uptake by crops. A field experiment was performed in Parana State, Brazil, on a loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox to evaluate Zn bioavailability in a NT system after surface liming and re-liming. Dolomitic lime was surface applied on the main plots in July 1993 at the rates of 0, 2, 4, and 6 Mg ha-1. In June 2000, the main plots were divided in two subplots to study of the effect of surface re-liming at the rates of 0 and 3 Mg ha-1. The cropping sequence was soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] (2001-2 and 2002-3), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (2003), soybean (2003-4), corn (Zea mays L.) (2004-5), and soybean (2005-6). Soil samples were collected at the following depths: 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, and 0.10-0.20m, 10 years after surface liming and 3 years after surface re-liming. Soil Zn levels were extracted by four extractants: (i) 0.005molL-1 diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) + 0.1molL-1 triethanolamine (TEA) + 0.01molL-1 calcium chloride (CaCl2) solution at pH7.3 (DTPA-TEA), (ii) 0.1molL-1 hydrochloric acid (HCl) solution, (iii) Mehlich 1 solution, and (iv) Mehlich 3 solution. Zinc concentrations in leaves and grains of soybean, wheat, and corn were also determined. Soil pH (0.01molL-1 CaCl2 suspension) varied from 4.4 to 6.1, at the 0- to 0.05-m depth, from 4.2 to 5.3 at the 0.05- to 0.10-m depth, and from 4.2 to 4.8 at the 0.10- to 0.20-m depth, after liming and re-liming. Zinc concentrations evaluated by DTPA-TEA, 0.1molL-1 HCl, Mehlich 1, and Mehlich 3 solutions were not changed as a result of lime rate application. Re-liming increased Zn concentrations extracted by 0.1molL-1 HCl at 0-0.05m deep and by DTPA-TEA at 0.05-0.10m deep. Surface-applied lime promoted a decrease in Zn concentrations of the crops, mainly in grains, because of increased soil pH at the surface layers. Regardless of the liming treatments, levels of Zn were sufficient to soybean, wheat, and corn nutrition under NT.

Long-term clozapine treatment identifies significant improvements in clinical and functioning scales

The majority of clinical drug trials only cover a small number of variables over a short period of time on a small group of people. The objective of this study was to track a large group of people over a long period of time, using a diverse range of variables with a naturalistic design to assess the ‘real world’ use of clozapine. Fifty-three people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were recruited into a 2-year study which assessed the subjects using the following scales: Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI), Life Skills Profile (LSP), and Role Functioning Scale (RFS). Discharge, leave, and ward movement rates were also monitored. All subjects were inpatients at a tertiary psychiatric facility. Thirty-three percent of the group was discharged. Seventythree percent moved to less cost-intensive wards, and the leave rate increased by 105”/0. Sixty-seven percent of the study group were identified as responders by the 24-month time point. Twenty-four percent of the group had their CGI scores reduced to 2 or better 0, =O.OOOl). Significant improvements were identified in the RFS (p = 0.02) and LSP (p = 0.0001). Long-term clozapine treatment has identified a significant group of responders on a variety of measures.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.