Clinical and non-clinical predictors of vocational recovery for Australians with psychotic disorders

Clinical and non-clinical predictors of vocational recovery were examined among 782 Australians diagnosed with DSM III R psychotic disorders, using data from the study on low-prevalence disorders, part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, Australia 1997-1998. Of the six significant clinical predictors, self-reported course of illness emerged as a potentially practical predictor of vocational recovery. Five non-clinical variables, age, education and skills, marital status, premorbid work adjustment, and use of a vocational service in the previous year, also contributed to the prediction of vocational recovery. The implications of these findings for both rehabilitation professionals and researchers are discussed.

Predictors of adherence to the Mediterranean diet from the first to the second trimester of pregnancy

Background: Although changes in eating patterns may occur during gestation, predictors of these changes have not been explored. This study aimed to identify predictors of adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) from the first to second trimester of pregnancy. Methods: A prospective study was conducted with 102 pregnant women aged 18-40, from the city of Porto, Portugal. Socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics were assessed through a questionnaire. Food consumption was assessed with a three-day food diary completed during the first and second trimesters. Participants were categorized according to their change in adherence to the MD into the negative change group (i.e., women who had low adherence in each trimester or had high adherence in the first trimester and then low adherence in the second) and the positive change group (i.e., women who had high adherence in both trimesters or had low adherence in the first trimester and then high adherence in the second). Conditional stepwise logistic regression models were performed to assess the potential predictors of negative MD change. Results: Among the 102 women, 39.2% had negative change from the first to the second trimester. The logistic model´s results show that being married (OR=0.26, 95%CI: 0.10, 0.76) and having a higher intake of vegetables in the first trimester (OR=0.17, 95%CI: 0.10, 0.43) were associated with lower odds of having a negative change in adherence to the MD from the first to second trimester. Conclusion: Marital status and vegetable consumption seem to be associated with a lower occurrence of negative change in adherence to the MD from early to middle pregnancy.

Predictors of consistent condom use among Portuguese women attending family planning clinics

Women account for 30% of all AIDS cases reported to the Health Ministry in Portugal and most infections are acquired through unprotected heterosexual sex with infected partners. This study analyzed socio-demographic and psychosocial predictors of consistent condom use and the role of education as a moderator variable among Portuguese women attending family planning clinics. A cross-sectional study using interviewer-administered fully structured questionnaires was conducted among 767 sexually active women (ages 18–65). Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between consistent condom use and the predictor variables. Overall, 78.7% of the women were inconsistent condom users. The results showed that consistent condom use was predicted by marital status (being not married), having greater perceptions of condom negotiation self-efficacy, having preparatory safer sexual behaviors, and not using condoms only when practicing abstinence. Living with a partner and having lack of risk perception significantly predicted inconsistent condom use. Less educated women were less likely to use condoms even when they perceive being at risk. The full model explained 53% of the variance in consistent condom use. This study emphasizes the need for implementing effective prevention interventions in this population showing the importance of taking education into consideration.

Predictors of dropout in a controlled clinical trial of psychotherapy for moderate depression

A significant number of psychotherapy clients remain untreated, and dropping out is one of the main reasons. Still, the literature around this subject is incoherent. The present study explores potential pre-treatment predictors of dropout in a sample of clients who took part in a clinical trial designed to test the efficacy of narrative therapy for major depressive disorder compared to cognitive-behavioral therapy. Logistic regression analysis showed that: (1) treatment assignment did not predict dropout, (2) clients taking psychiatric medication at intake were 80% less likely to drop out from therapy, compared to clients who were not taking medication, and (3) clients presenting anxious comorbidity at intake were 82% less likely to dropout compared to those clients not presenting anxious comorbidity. Results suggest that clinicians should pay attention to depressed clients who are not taking psychiatric medication or have no comorbid anxiety. More research is needed in order to understand this relationship.

Acute myocardial infarction: predictors of mortality at a public hospital in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará state

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical and demographic predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction with elevation of the ST segment in a public hospital, in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará state, Brazil. METHODS: A retrospective study of 373 patients experiencing their first episode of acute myocardial infarction was carried out. Of the study patients, 289 were discharged from the hospital (group A) and 84 died (group B). Both groups were analyzed regarding: sex; age; time elapsed from the beginning of the symptoms of myocardial infarction to assistance at the hospital; use of streptokinase; risk factors for atherosclerosis; electrocardiographic location of myocardial infarct; and Killip functional class. RESULTS: In a univariate analysis, group B had a greater proportion of the following parameters as compared with group A: non-Killip I functional class; diabetes; age >70 years; infarction of the inferior wall associated with right ventricular impairment; time between symptom onset and treatment at the hospital >12 h; anteroseptal or extensive anterior infarction; no use of streptokinase; and no tobacco use. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, only non-Killip I functional class, diabetes, and age >70 years persisted as independent factors for death. CONCLUSION: Non-Killip I functional class, diabetes, and age >70 years were independent predictors of mortality in acute myocardial infarction with elevation of the ST segment.

Predictors of Conversion from Radial Into Femoral Access in Cardiac Catheterization

Background: Fewer bleeding complications and early ambulation make radial access a privileged route for cardiac catheterization. However, transradial (TR) approach is not always successful, requiring its conversion into femoral access. Objectives: To evaluate the rate of conversion from radial into femoral access in cardiac catheterization and to identify its predictors. Methods: Prospective dual-center registry, including 7632 consecutive patients undergoing catheterization via the radial access between Jan/2009 and Oct/2012. We evaluated the incidence of conversion into femoral access and its predictors by logistic regression analysis. Results: The patients’ mean age was 66 ± 11 years, and 32% were women. A total of 2969 procedures (38.4%) were percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), and the most used first intention arterial access was the right radial artery (97.6%). Radial access failure rate was 5.8%. Independent predictors of conversion from radial into femoral access were the use of short introducer sheaths (OR 3.047, CI: 2.380-3.902; p < 0.001), PCI (OR 1.729, CI: 1.375-2.173; p < 0.001), female sex (OR 1.569, CI: 1.234-1.996; p < 0.001), multivessel disease (OR 1.457, CI: 1.167-1.819; p = 0.001), body surface area (BSA) ≤ 1.938 (OR 1.448, CI: 1.120-1.871; p = 0.005) and age > 66 years (OR 1.354, CI: 1.088-1.684; p = 0.007). Conclusion: Transradial approach for cardiac catheterization has a high success rate and the need for its conversion into femoral access in this cohort was low. Female sex, older age, smaller BSA, the use of short introducer sheaths, multivessel disease and PCI were independent predictors of conversion into femoral access.

Predictors of Arrhythmic Events Detected by Implantable Loop Recorders in Renal Transplant Candidates

AbstractBackground:The recording of arrhythmic events (AE) in renal transplant candidates (RTCs) undergoing dialysis is limited by conventional electrocardiography. However, continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring seems to be more appropriate due to automatic detection of arrhythmia, but this method has not been used.Objective:We aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of AE in RTCs using an implantable loop recorder (ILR).Methods:A prospective observational study conducted from June 2009 to January 2011 included 100 consecutive ambulatory RTCs who underwent ILR and were followed-up for at least 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to define predictors of AE.Results:During a mean follow-up of 424 ± 127 days, AE could be detected in 98% of patients, and 92% had more than one type of arrhythmia, with most considered potentially not serious. Sustained atrial tachycardia and atrial fibrillation occurred in 7% and 13% of patients, respectively, and bradyarrhythmia and non-sustained or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) occurred in 25% and 57%, respectively. There were 18 deaths, of which 7 were sudden cardiac events: 3 bradyarrhythmias, 1 ventricular fibrillation, 1 myocardial infarction, and 2 undetermined. The presence of a long QTc (odds ratio [OR] = 7.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01–26.35; p = 0.002), and the duration of the PR interval (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08; p < 0.001) were independently associated with bradyarrhythmias. Left ventricular dilatation (LVD) was independently associated with non-sustained VT (OR = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.01–7.96; p = 0.041).Conclusions:In medium-term follow-up of RTCs, ILR helped detect a high incidence of AE, most of which did not have clinical relevance. The PR interval and presence of long QTc were predictive of bradyarrhythmias, whereas LVD was predictive of non-sustained VT.

Incidence and Predictors of Cardiovascular Complications and Death after Vascular Surgery

AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Predictors of nonresponse in a questionnaire-based outcome study of vocational rehabilitation patients.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. DESIGN: Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. SETTING: Rehabilitation clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. RESULTS: Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.

Longitudinal analysis of patterns and predictors of changes in self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is a dynamic process, however, changes in adherence behavior over time are insufficiently understood. METHODS: Data on self-reported missed doses of cART was collected every 6 months in Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We identified behavioral groups associated with specific cART adherence patterns using trajectory analyses. Repeated measures logistic regression identified predictors of changes in adherence between consecutive visits. RESULTS: Six thousand seven hundred nine individuals completed 49,071 adherence questionnaires [median 8 (interquartile range: 5-10)] during a median follow-up time of 4.5 years (interquartile range: 2.4-5.1). Individuals were clustered into 4 adherence groups: good (51.8%), worsening (17.4%), improving (17.6%), and poor adherence (13.2%). Independent predictors of worsening adherence were younger age, basic education, loss of a roommate, starting intravenous drug use, increasing alcohol intake, depression, longer time with HIV, onset of lipodystrophy, and changing care provider. Independent predictors of improvements in adherence were regimen simplification, changing class of cART, less time on cART, and starting comedications. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment, behavioral changes, and life events influence patterns of drug intake in HIV patients. Clinical care providers should routinely monitor factors related to worsening adherence and intervene early to reduce the risk of treatment failure and drug resistance.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Tumour necrosis factor -308 and -238 promoter polymorphisms are predictors of a null virological response in the treatment of Brazilian hepatitis C patients

Certain host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) affect the likelihood of a sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in subjects infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). SNPs in the promoters of interleukin (IL)-10 (-1082 A/G, rs1800896), myxovirus resistance protein 1 (-123 C/A, rs17000900 and -88 G/T, rs2071430) and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) (-308 G/A, rs1800629 and -238 G/A, rs361525) genes and the outcome of PEGylated α-interferon plus ribavirin therapy were investigated. This analysis was performed in 114 Brazilian, HCV genotype 1-infected patients who had a SVR and in 85 non-responders and 64 relapsers. A significantly increased risk of having a null virological response was observed in patients carrying at least one A allele at positions -308 [odds ratios (OR) = 2.58, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.44-4.63, p = 0.001] or -238 (OR = 7.33, 95% CI = 3.59-14.93, p < 0.001) in the TNF promoter. The risk of relapsing was also elevated (-308: OR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.51-5.44, p = 0.001; -238: OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.93-9.10, p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression of TNF diplotypes showed that patients with at least two copies of the A allele had an even higher risk of having a null virological response (OR = 16.43, 95% CI = 5.70-47.34, p < 0.001) or relapsing (OR = 6.71, 95% CI = 2.18-20.66, p = 0.001). No statistically significant association was found between the other SNPs under study and anti-HCV therapy response.

TRAF1/C5 but not PTPRC variants are potential predictors of rheumatoid arthritis response to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy.

BACKGROUND The aim of our work was to replicate, in a Southern European population, the association reported in Northern populations between PTPRC locus and response to anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also looked at associations between five RA risk alleles and treatment response. METHODS We evaluated associations between anti-TNF treatment responses assessed by DAS28 change and by EULAR response at six months in 383 Portuguese patients. Univariate and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed. In a second step to confirm our findings, we pooled our population with 265 Spanish patients. RESULTS No association was found between PTPRC rs10919563 allele and anti-TNF treatment response, neither in Portuguese modeling for several clinical variables nor in the overall population combining Portuguese and Spanish patients. The minor allele for RA susceptibility, rs3761847 SNP in TRAF1/C5 region, was associated with a poor response in linear and logistic univariate and multivariate regression analyses. No association was observed with the other allellic variants. Results were confirmed in the pooled analysis. CONCLUSION This study did not replicate the association between PTPRC and the response to anti-TNF treatment in our Southern European population. We found that TRAF1/C5 risk RA variants potentially influence anti-TNF treatment response.

Early major worsening in ischemic stroke: predictors and outcome.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the characteristics and outcome of patients suffering early major worsening (EMW) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and assess the parameters associated with it. METHODS: All consecutive patients with AIS in the ASTRAL registry until 10/2010 were included. EMW was defined as an NIHSS increase of ≥8 points within the first 24 h after admission. The Bootstrap version of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the χ(2)-test were used for the comparison of continuous and categorical covariates, respectively, between patients with and without EMW. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of EMW. RESULTS: Among 2155 patients, 43 (2.0 %) had an EMW. EMW was independently associated with hemorrhagic transformation (OR 22.6, 95 % CI 9.4-54.2), cervical artery dissection (OR 9.5, 95 % CI 4.4-20.6), initial dysarthria (OR 3.7, 95 % CI 1.7-8.0), and intravenous thrombolysis (OR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.1-4.3), whereas a negative association was identified with initial eye deviation (OR 0.4, 95 % CI 0.2-0.9). Favorable outcome at 3 and 12 months was less frequent in patients with EMW compared to patients without (11.6 vs. 55.3 % and 16.3 vs. 50.7 %, respectively), and case fatality was higher (53.5 vs. 12.9 % and 55.8 vs. 16.8 %, respectively). Stroke recurrence within 3 months in surviving patients was similar between patients with and without EMW (9.3 vs. 9.0 %, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Worsening of ≥8 points in the NIHSS score during the first 24 h in AIS patients is related to cervical artery dissection and hemorrhagic transformation. It justifies urgent repeat parenchymal and arterial imaging. Both conditions may be influenced by targeted interventions in the acute phase of stroke.