Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capillary bridging and long-range attractive forces in a mean-field approach

When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Approximating fractional derivatives through the generalized mean

This paper addresses the calculation of fractional order expressions through rational fractions. The article starts by analyzing the techniques adopted in the continuous to discrete time conversion. The problem is re-evaluated in an optimization perspective by tacking advantage of the degree of freedom provided by the generalized mean formula. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Trypanocide treatment among adults with chronic Chagas disease living in Santa Fe city (Argentina), over a mean follow-up of 21 years: parasitological, serological and clinical evolution

The efficacy of treatment with nifurtimox and/or benznidazole among adults with chronic Chagas disease with no previous electrocardiographic disturbances was evaluated over a mean follow-up of 21 years, by means of conventional serology, xenodiagnosis, clinical examination, electrocardiograms and chest X-ray. One hundred and eleven patients, between 17 and 46 years old, were studied: 54 underwent treatment (nifurtimox 27, benznidazole 27) and 57 remained untreated (control group). Xenodiagnosis was performed on 65% of them: 36/38 of the treated and 9/34 of the untreated patients had previous positive xenodiagnosis. Post-treatment, 133 xenodiagnoses were performed on 41 patients, all resulting negative. In the control group, 29 xenodiagnoses were performed on 14 patients; 2 resulted positive. Sera stored during the follow-up were simultaneously analyzed through conventional serology tests (IHA; DA-2ME; IIF). The serological evolution in the treated group was: a) 37% underwent negative seroconversion (nifurtimox 11, benznidazole 9); b) 27.8% decreased titers (nifurtimox 9, benznidazole 6), 9 showed inconclusive final serology (nifurtimox 7, benznidazole 2); c) 35.2% remained positive with constant titers (nifurtimox 7; benznidazole 12). The control group conserved the initial antibody levels during the follow-up. In the clinical evolution, 2/54 (3.7%) of the treated and 9/57 (15.8%) of the untreated patients showed electrocardiographic disturbances attributable to Chagas myocardiopathy, with a statistically relevant difference (p<0.05). Treatment caused deparasitation in at least 37% of the chronically infected adults and a protective effect on their clinical evolution.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

The mean dehn functions of Abelian groups

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

Mean platelet volume in the early phase of acute ischemic stroke is not associated with severity or functional outcome.

Background: Previous studies reported an increase of mean platelet volume (MPV) in patients with acute ischemic stroke. However, its correlation with stroke severity has not been investigated. Moreover, studies on the association of MPV with functional outcome yielded inconsistent results. Methods: We included all consecutive ischemic stroke patients admitted to CHUV (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois) Neurology Service within 24 h after stroke onset who had MPV measured on admission. The association of MPV with stroke severity (NIHSS score at admission and at 24 h) and outcome (Rankin Scale score at 3 and 12 months) was analyzed in univariate analysis. The chi(2) test was performed to compare the frequency of minor strokes (NIHSS score </=4) and good functional outcome (Rankin Scale score </=2) across MPV quartiles. The ANOVA test was used to compare MPV between stroke subtypes according to the TOAST classification. Student's two-tailed unpaired t test was performed to compare MPV between lacunar and nonlacunar strokes. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from EDTA blood samples. Results: There was no significant difference in the frequency of minor strokes (p = 0.46) and good functional outcome (p = 0.06) across MPV quartiles. MPV was not associated with stroke severity or outcome in univariate analysis. There was no significant difference in MPV between stroke subtypes according to the TOAST classification (p = 0.173) or between lacunar and nonlacunar strokes (10.50 +/- 0.91 vs. 10.40 +/- 0.81 fl, p = 0.322). Conclusions: MPV, assessed within 24 h after ischemic stroke onset, is not associated with stroke severity or functional outcome.

Mean-payoff games and propositional proofs

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