Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000)and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the Dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub -groups are explored, such as gender and age-related differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders.

What’s the best method? Comparison of different short forms oft he Pathological Narcissism Inventory

Recent research emphasizes the various facets of narcissism. As a consequence, newly developed questionnaires for narcissism have a large number of subscales and items. However, for the daily use in research and practice, short measures are crucial. In this study we compare different short forms of the Pathological Narcissism Questionnaire, a 54 item measure with seven subscales. In different samples (total N>2000) we applied different theoretical models to construct short forms of approximately 20 items. In particular, we compared IRT, item-total correlation, and factor loading based short forms and versions based on content validity and random selection. In all versions the original subscale structure was preserved. Results show that the short forms all have high correlations with the original version. Furthermore, correlations with criterion validation measures were comparable. We conclude that the item number can be reduced substantially without loosing information. Pros and cons of the different reduction methods are discussed.

Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub-groups are explored, such as gender and agerelated differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders. References: Bundesamt für Polizei. (2015). Jahresbericht 2014. Kriminalitätsbekämpfung Bund. Lage, Massnahmen und Mittel [Electronic Version]. Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change. The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47. Schumacher-Dimech, A., Brechbühl, A. &, Seiler, R. (2016). Dynamics of critical incidents with potentially violent outcomes involving ultra fans: an explorative study. Sport in Society. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/17430437.2015.1133597

Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Comparasion of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the ‘average-speed’ and ‘traffic situation’ model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under “stop & go” traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area. In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared with observations through a series of statistics. Although there are no remarkable differences between both model runs, the results suggest that HBEFA may overestimate traffic emissions. However, the results are strongly influenced by methodological issues and limitations of the traffic model. This study was useful to provide a first alternative estimate to the official emission inventory in Madrid and to identify the main features of the traffic model that should be improved to support the application of an emission system based on “real world” emission factors.

Optimización de la Exactitud Geométrica al Integrar Diversas Fuentes de Datos en Proyectos de Inventario Forestal Basados en Escaneo Laser Aerotransportado=Optimizing Geometric Accuracy in Data Source Integration for Airborne Laser Scanning-based Forest Inventory Projects

La mayoría de las aplicaciones forestales del escaneo laser aerotransportado (ALS, del inglés airborne laser scanning) requieren la integración y uso simultaneo de diversas fuentes de datos, con el propósito de conseguir diversos objetivos. Los proyectos basados en sensores remotos normalmente consisten en aumentar la escala de estudio progresivamente a lo largo de varias fases de fusión de datos: desde la información más detallada obtenida sobre un área limitada (la parcela de campo), hasta una respuesta general de la cubierta forestal detectada a distancia de forma más incierta pero cubriendo un área mucho más amplia (la extensión cubierta por el vuelo o el satélite). Todas las fuentes de datos necesitan en ultimo termino basarse en las tecnologías de sistemas de navegación global por satélite (GNSS, del inglés global navigation satellite systems), las cuales son especialmente erróneas al operar por debajo del dosel forestal. Otras etapas adicionales de procesamiento, como la ortorectificación, también pueden verse afectadas por la presencia de vegetación, deteriorando la exactitud de las coordenadas de referencia de las imágenes ópticas. Todos estos errores introducen ruido en los modelos, ya que los predictores se desplazan de la posición real donde se sitúa su variable respuesta. El grado por el que las estimaciones forestales se ven afectadas depende de la dispersión espacial de las variables involucradas, y también de la escala utilizada en cada caso. Esta tesis revisa las fuentes de error posicional que pueden afectar a los diversos datos de entrada involucrados en un proyecto de inventario forestal basado en teledetección ALS, y como las propiedades del dosel forestal en sí afecta a su magnitud, aconsejando en consecuencia métodos para su reducción. También se incluye una discusión sobre las formas más apropiadas de medir exactitud y precisión en cada caso, y como los errores de posicionamiento de hecho afectan a la calidad de las estimaciones, con vistas a una planificación eficiente de la adquisición de los datos. La optimización final en el posicionamiento GNSS y de la radiometría del sensor óptico permitió detectar la importancia de este ultimo en la predicción de la desidad relativa de un bosque monoespecífico de Pinus sylvestris L. ABSTRACT Most forestry applications of airborne laser scanning (ALS) require the integration and simultaneous use of various data sources, pursuing a variety of different objectives. Projects based on remotely-sensed data generally consist in upscaling data fusion stages: from the most detailed information obtained for a limited area (field plot) to a more uncertain forest response sensed over a larger extent (airborne and satellite swath). All data sources ultimately rely on global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which are especially error-prone when operating under forest canopies. Other additional processing stages, such as orthorectification, may as well be affected by vegetation, hence deteriorating the accuracy of optical imagery’s reference coordinates. These errors introduce noise to the models, as predictors displace from their corresponding response. The degree to which forest estimations are affected depends on the spatial dispersion of the variables involved and the scale used. This thesis reviews the sources of positioning errors which may affect the different inputs involved in an ALS-assisted forest inventory project, and how the properties of the forest canopy itself affects their magnitude, advising on methods for diminishing them. It is also discussed how accuracy should be assessed, and how positioning errors actually affect forest estimation, toward a cost-efficient planning for data acquisition. The final optimization in positioning the GNSS and optical image allowed to detect the importance of the latter in predicting relative density in a monospecific Pinus sylvestris L. forest.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Dynamic Models under Uncertainty for Large-Scale Enterprise Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Setting parameters in MRP for the effective management of bought-out inventory in a JIT assembly environment

In recent years, UK industry has seen an explosive growth in the number of `Computer Aided Production Management' (CAPM) system installations. Of the many CAPM systems, materials requirement planning/manufacturing resource planning (MRP/MRPII) is the most widely implemented. Despite the huge investments in MRP systems, over 80 percent are said to have failed within 3 to 5 years of installation. Many people now assume that Just-In-Time (JIT) is the best manufacturing technique. However, those who have implemented JIT have found that it also has many problems. The author argues that the success of a manufacturing company will not be due to a system which complies with a single technique; but due to the integration of many techniques and the ability to make them complement each other in a specific manufacturing environment. This dissertation examines the potential for integrating MRP with JIT and Two-Bin systems to reduce operational costs involved in managing bought-out inventory. Within this framework it shows that controlling MRP is essential to facilitate the integrating process. The behaviour of MRP systems is dependent on the complex interactions between the numerous control parameters used. Methodologies/models are developed to set these parameters. The models are based on the Pareto principle. The idea is to use business targets to set a coherent set of parameters, which not only enables those business targets to be realised, but also facilitates JIT implementation. It illustrates this approach in the context of an actual manufacturing plant - IBM Havant. (IBM Havant is a high volume electronics assembly plant with the majority of the materials bought-out). The parameter setting models are applicable to control bought-out items in a wide range of industries and are not dependent on specific MRP software. The models have produced successful results in several companies and are now being developed as commercial products.

The choice of the model in inventory control and the cost of sophistication

This thesis is concerned with the inventory control of items that can be considered independent of one another. The decisions when to order and in what quantity, are the controllable or independent variables in cost expressions which are minimised. The four systems considered are referred to as (Q, R), (nQ,R,T), (M,T) and (M,R,T). Wiith ((Q,R) a fixed quantity Q is ordered each time the order cover (i.e. stock in hand plus on order ) equals or falls below R, the re-order level. With the other three systems reviews are made only at intervals of T. With (nQ,R,T) an order for nQ is placed if on review the inventory cover is less than or equal to R, where n, which is an integer, is chosen at the time so that the new order cover just exceeds R. In (M, T) each order increases the order cover to M. Fnally in (M, R, T) when on review, order cover does not exceed R, enough is ordered to increase it to M. The (Q, R) system is examined at several levels of complexity, so that the theoretical savings in inventory costs obtained with more exact models could be compared with the increases in computational costs. Since the exact model was preferable for the (Q,R) system only exact models were derived for theoretical systems for the other three. Several methods of optimization were tried, but most were found inappropriate for the exact models because of non-convergence. However one method did work for each of the exact models. Demand is considered continuous, and with one exception, the distribution assumed is the normal distribution truncated so that demand is never less than zero. Shortages are assumed to result in backorders, not lost sales. However, the shortage cost is a function of three items, one of which, the backorder cost, may be either a linear, quadratic or an exponential function of the length of time of a backorder, with or without period of grace. Lead times are assumed constant or gamma distributed. Lastly, the actual supply quantity is allowed to be distributed. All the sets of equations were programmed for a KDF 9 computer and the computed performances of the four inventory control procedures are compared under each assurnption.

Aircraft rotable inventory optimisation: development of a new solution

Analysis of the use of ICT in the aerospace industry has prompted the detailed investigation of an inventory-planning problem. There is a special class of inventory, consisting of expensive repairable spares for use in support of aircraft operations. These items, called rotables, are not well served by conventional theory and systems for inventory management. The context of the problem, the aircraft maintenance industry sector, is described in order to convey some of its special characteristics in the context of operations management. A literature review is carried out to seek existing theory that can be applied to rotable inventory and to identify a potential gap into which newly developed theory could contribute. Current techniques for rotable planning are identified in industry and the literature: these methods are modelled and tested using inventory and operational data obtained in the field. In the expectation that current practice leaves much scope for improvement, several new models are proposed. These are developed and tested on the field data for comparison with current practice. The new models are revised following testing to give improved versions. The best model developed and tested here comprises a linear programming optimisation, which finds an optimal level of inventory for multiple test cases, reflecting changing operating conditions. The new model offers an inventory plan that is up to 40% less expensive than that determined by current practice, while maintaining required performance.

Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.

Examining Technology Adoption and Management Perception of Inventory Management Systems: The Case of Aruba Restaurants

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of automated inventory management systems (IMS) and identify the stage of technology adoption for restaurants in Aruba. A case study analysis involving twelve members of the Aruba Gastronomic Association was conducted using a qualitative research design to gather information on approaches currently used as well as the reasons and perceptions managers/owners have for using or not using automated systems in their facilities. This is the first study conducted using the Aruba restaurant market. Therefore, the application of two technology adoption models was used to integrate critical factors relevant to the study. Major findings indicated the use of an automated IMS in restaurants is limited, thus underscoring the lack of adoption of technology in this area. The results also indicated that two major reasons that restaurants are not adopting IMS technology are budgetary constraints and service support. This study is imperative for two reasons: (1) the results of this study can be used as a comparison for future IMS adoption, not only for Aruba’s restaurant industry but also for other Caribbean destinations and the U.S., (2) this study also provides insight into the additional training and support help needed in hospitality technology services.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation