Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Interpreting communication of people with profound and severe learning difficulties

The present paper highlights some of the issues involved in interpreting the communication behaviours of people with profound and multiple learning difficulties (PMLDs). Both inference and intention can play an important role in the communication process, and this raises a number of difficulties and dangers where one of the communication partners is not in a position to correct misunderstandings. The present authors discuss the importance of validating communication and pose a number of key questions to ask those who are most significant in the life of a person with PMLDs. A case study is provided that illustrates a number of these issues.

Still searching for graves: an analytical strategy for interpreting geophysical data used in the search for “unmarked” graves

Searching for and mapping the physical extent of unmarked graves using geophysical techniques has proven difficult in many cases. The success of individual geophysical techniques for detecting graves depends on a site-by-site basis. Significantly, detection of graves often results from measured contrasts that are linked to the background soils rather than the type of archaeological feature associated with the grave. It is evident that investigation of buried remains should be considered within a 3D space as the variation in burial environment can be extremely varied through the grave. Within this paper, we demonstrate the need for a multi-method survey strategy to investigate unmarked graves, as applied at a “planned” but unmarked pauper’s cemetery. The outcome from this case study provides new insights into the strategy that is required at such sites. Perhaps the most significant conclusion is that unmarked graves are best understood in terms of characterization rather than identification. In this paper, we argue for a methodological approach that, while following the current trends to use multiple techniques, is fundamentally dependent on a structured approach to the analysis of the data. The ramifications of this case study illustrate the necessity of an integrated strategy to provide a more holistic understanding of unmarked graves that may help aid in management of these unseen but important aspects of our heritage. It is concluded that the search for graves is still a current debate and one that will be solved by methodological rather than technique-based arguments.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Two-photon absorption of perylene derivatives: Interpreting the spectral structure

This work investigates the two-photon absorption spectrum of perylene tetracarboxylic derivatives using the white-light continuum Z-scan technique. Perylene derivatives present relatively high two-photon absorption cross-section, which makes them attractive for applications in photonics. Because of the spectral resolution of the white-light continuum Z-scan, we were able to observe a well defined structure in the two-photon absorption spectrum, composed by two distinct peaks. These peaks, as well as the resonant enhancement of the nonlinearity, were modeled using the sum-over-states approach considering a four-level energy diagram with two final two-photon states. The existence of such states was confirmed using the response function formalism within the DFT framework. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interpreting histopathology in the epididymis

While most of this Special Issue is devoted to the testis (which is where most drug and chemically induced toxicity of the male reproductive tract is identified), being able to recognize and understand the potential effects of toxicants on the epididymis is immensely important and an area that is often overlooked. The epididymis is the organ where the post-testicular sperm differentiation occurs, through a complex and still not completely understood sperm maturation process, allowing them to fertilize the oocyte. Also in the epididymis, sperm are stored until ejaculation, while being protected from immunogenic reaction by a blood-epididymis barrier. From a toxicologic perspective the epididymis is inherently complicated as its structure and function can be altered both indirectly and directly. In this review we will discuss the factors that must be considered when attempting to distinguish between indirect and direct epididymal toxicity and highlight what is currently known about mechanisms of epididymal toxicants, using the rat as a reference model. We identify 2 distinguishable signature lesions - one representing androgen deprivation (secondary to Leydig cell toxicity in the testis) and another representing a direct acting toxicant. Other commonly observed alterations will also be shown and discussed. Finally, we point out that many of the key functions of the epididymis can be altered in the absence of a detectable change in tissue structure. Collectively, we hope this will provide pathologists with increased confidence in identification of epididymal toxicity and enable more informed guidance as mechanism of action is considered.

Evidence-based guidelines for interpreting change scores for the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30

Aim: To use published literature and experts' opinion to investigate the clinical meaning and magnitude of changes in the Quality of Life (QOL) of groups of patients measured with the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Methods: An innovative method combining systematic review of published studies, expert opinions and meta-analysis was used to estimate large, medium, and small mean changes over time for QLQ-C30 scores. Results: Nine hundred and eleven papers were identified, leading to 118 relevant papers. One thousand two hundred and thirty two mean changes in QOL over time were combined in the meta-analysis, with timescales ranging from four days to five years. Guidelines were produced for trivial, small, and medium size classes, for each subscale and for improving and declining scores separately. Estimates for improvements were smaller than respective estimates for declines. Conclusions: These guidelines can be used to aid sample size calculations and interpretation of mean changes over time from groups of patients. Observed mean changes in the QLQ-C30 scores are generally small in most clinical situations, possibly due to response shift. Careful consideration is needed when planning studies where QOL changes over time are of primary interest; the timing of follow up, sample attrition, direction of QOL changes, and subscales of primary interest are key considerations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpreting Judgements using Knowledge Representation Methods and Computational Models of Argument

The goal of the present research is to define a Semantic Web framework for precedent modelling, by using knowledge extracted from text, metadata, and rules, while maintaining a strong text-to-knowledge morphism between legal text and legal concepts, in order to fill the gap between legal document and its semantics. The framework is composed of four different models that make use of standard languages from the Semantic Web stack of technologies: a document metadata structure, modelling the main parts of a judgement, and creating a bridge between a text and its semantic annotations of legal concepts; a legal core ontology, modelling abstract legal concepts and institutions contained in a rule of law; a legal domain ontology, modelling the main legal concepts in a specific domain concerned by case-law; an argumentation system, modelling the structure of argumentation. The input to the framework includes metadata associated with judicial concepts, and an ontology library representing the structure of case-law. The research relies on the previous efforts of the community in the field of legal knowledge representation and rule interchange for applications in the legal domain, in order to apply the theory to a set of real legal documents, stressing the OWL axioms definitions as much as possible in order to enable them to provide a semantically powerful representation of the legal document and a solid ground for an argumentation system using a defeasible subset of predicate logics. It appears that some new features of OWL2 unlock useful reasoning features for legal knowledge, especially if combined with defeasible rules and argumentation schemes. The main task is thus to formalize legal concepts and argumentation patterns contained in a judgement, with the following requirement: to check, validate and reuse the discourse of a judge - and the argumentation he produces - as expressed by the judicial text.

Shadowing: imitazione e apprendimento. Dagli Interpreting Studies alle neuroscienze

Scopo di questa tesi è argomentare l’utilità dello shadowing nella formazione degli interpreti, basandosi sulla Teoria motoria della percezione del linguaggio di Alvin Liberman e muovendosi all’interno del quadro teorico della più ampia embodied cognition, che include teorie sullo sviluppo del linguaggio e sull’acquisizione di seconde lingue. Nella formazione degli interpreti, lo shadowing è un esercizio che consiste nell’immediata ripetizione di quanto udito in cuffia, parola per parola e nella medesima lingua del testo di partenza ed è generalmente utilizzato come esercizio propedeutico alla simultanea, in quanto permette sia di “imparare” ad ascoltare e a parlare contemporaneamente, sia di migliorare la pronuncia e la fluidità in lingua straniera. Tuttavia, all’interno degli Interpreting Studies, ci sono studiosi che lo ritengono un esercizio inutile e, per certi versi, pericoloso poiché porrebbe l’accento su un processo eccessivamente “meccanico” dell’interpretazione. Per argomentare la sua utilità nella didattica dell’interpretazione, in questa tesi, dopo aver presentato le principali teorie sullo sviluppo del linguaggio e sull’acquisizione di seconde lingue, si passeranno in rassegna i risultati di ricerche condotte non solo all’interno degli Interpreting Studies, ma anche nella più ampia prospettiva della didattica delle lingue straniere/seconde, e soprattutto in neurolinguistica e psicologia cognitiva, dove lo shadowing è utilizzato per analizzare i processi cognitivi che sono alla base della ricezione e produzione del linguaggio (articolazione motoria, memoria di lavoro, attenzione selettiva, ecc.). L’ultimo capitolo di questo lavoro sarà dedicato alla descrizione di un approccio estremamente recente sulla percezione e sulla produzione del linguaggio, che coniuga la Teoria motoria della percezione del linguaggio di Liberman (1967) con la recente scoperta dei neuroni specchio, e che getta una luce nuova sull’utilità dello shadowing nella formazione degli interpreti.