Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Análise de Crédito e Avaliação de Riscos em Instituições Bancárias

É indubitável que o sistema financeiro é parte integrante de qualquer sociedade. Através da sua função de intermediação, as instituições financeiras recebem recursos dos agentes superavitários e emprestam aos agentes deficitários mediante promessa de pagamento futuro. Num banco, que tem intermediação financeira como sua principal actividade, o crédito consiste em disponibilizar ao cliente recursos em valores sob a forma de financiamento e ou empréstimo mediante uma promessa de pagamento numa data acordada entre as partes. A discussão e implementação dos acordos de BASILEIA, nomeadamente o Basileia II, veio dar uma nova forma a esse relacionamento sector bancário/clientes determinando as regras no que respeita a concessão de crédito e gestão de risco, estabelecendo os limites de crédito associado ao grau de risco das operações. Surge então, por parte das instituições uma maior preocupação em gerir o crédito e os riscos inerentes a cada operação, apostando em ferramentas e metodologias adequadas ao processo creditício. As instituições bancárias passam a criar departamentos de risco, colocando a gestão de crédito e de risco nas mãos de profissionais especializados, agindo sob regras e padrões internacionais uniformizados. There is no doubt that the financial system is an integral part of any society. Through their intermediary role, financial institutions receive funds from surplus agents and lend to deficit agents, with promises of future payment. Banks, with their primary activity being the financial intermediation, the credit is provided to customers in the form of funding or loans and a promise of payment on a date agreed between the parties. The discussion and implementation of the Basel Accord, Basel II in particular, has given a new form to that relationship banking/customer, setting out the rules regarding the granting of credit and risk management, establishing credit limits associated with the degree of risk of operations. Banking institutions got more and more concerned with credit and risk management, in all of their operations, using tools and methodologies that are designed to meet the needs of crediting processes. Banking institutions are creating departments of risk, putting the management of credit risk in the hands of trained professionals, acting under internationally uniform rules and standards

Processos de Reconhecimento, Mensuração e Contabilização do Rédito

O reconhecimento e mensuração do rédito tornaram-se cada vez mais complexos devido a factores como a concorrência internacional e a rápida evolução dos modelos empresariais. O rédito é a componente do rendimento proveniente da actividade operacional da empresa, daí ser de suprema importância determinar-se o momento em que o mesmo deve ser reconhecido bem como os critérios adequados para mensurá-lo. Neste trabalho debruçamo-nos sobre os processos de reconhecimento e mensuração do rédito. Este trabalho foi elaborado em duas partes, na primeira, efectuou-se uma revisão às normas de referência ao tratamento do rédito, com o objectivo de esclarecer algumas questões que suscitam grandes dúvidas, quer no meio académico, quer no meio profissional como é o exemplo do tratamento a dar ao rédito proveniente dos contratos de construção de imóveis numa empresa do ramo imobiliário. Na segunda parte do trabalho, elaborou-se um estudo de caso sobre a empresa TECNICIL Imobiliária, precisamente para verificar na prática o tratamento dado ao rédito proveniente dos acordos de construção levados a cabo por esta entidade. E desse estudo podemos concluir que a entidade não observa o tratamento prescrito pelas normas de referência, particularmente a IFRIC 15 – Acordos para Construção de Imóveis e IAS 18 – Rédito. There is no doubt that the financial system is an integral part of any society. Through their intermediary role, financial institutions receive funds from surplus agents and lend to deficit agents, with promises of future payment. Banks, with their primary activity being the financial intermediation, the credit is provided to customers in the form of funding or loans and a promise of payment on a date agreed between the parties. The discussion and implementation of the Basel Accord, Basel II in particular, has given a new form to that relationship banking/customer, setting out the rules regarding the granting of credit and risk management, establishing credit limits associated with the degree of risk of operations. Banking institutions got more and more concerned with credit and risk management, in all of their operations, using tools and methodologies that are designed to meet the needs of crediting processes. Banking institutions are creating departments of risk, putting the management of credit risk in the hands of trained professionals, acting under internationally uniform rules and standards.

An overall perspective on banking regulation

We survey the theory of banking regulation from the general perspectiveof regulatory theory. Starting by considering the different justificationsof financial intermediation, we proceed to identify the market failuresthat make banking regulation necessary. We then succinctly compare how theanalysis of regulation compares in the domains of banking and industrialorganization. Finally we analyse why a safety net for banks could be partof banking regulation and how it can be structured in an efficient way.

Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages ofeconomic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Specialization and rent-seeking in moral enforcement: The case of confession

Moral codes are produced and enforced by more or less specialized means and are subject to standard economic forces. This paper argues that the intermediary role played by the Catholic Church between God and Christians, a key difference from Protestantism, faces the standard trade-off of specialization benefits and agency costs. It applies this trade-off hypothesis to confession of sins to priests, an institution that epitomizes such intermediation, showing that this hypothesis fits cognitive, historical and econometric evidence better than a simpler rent-seeking story. In particular, Catholics who confess more often are observed to comply more with the moral code; however, no relationship is observed between mass attendance and moral compliance. The data also links the current decline in confession to the rise in education, which makes moral self-enforcement less costly, and to the productivity gap suffered by confession services, given its necessarily interpersonal nature.

Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending varyover the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationshipbanks gather information on their borrowers, which allows them toprovide loans for profitable firms during a crisis. Due to the servicesthey provide, operating costs of relationship-banks are higher thanthose of transaction-banks. In our model, where relationship-bankscompete with transaction-banks, a key result is that relationship-banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, butoffer continuation-lending at more favorable terms than transactionbanks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using detailed credit registerinformation for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers'default, we are able to study how relationship and transaction-banksresponded to the crisis and we test existing theories of relationshipbanking. Our empirical analysis confirms the basic prediction of themodel that relationship banks charged a higher spread before the crisis, offered more favorable continuation-lending terms in response tothe crisis, and suffered fewer defaults, thus confirming the informational advantage of relationship banking.

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Upward influence tactics in virtual work settings

The globalization of work within organizations has generated a greater need for all type of workers to exert interpersonal influence through technology-mediated communication tools. This paper contributes to the analysis of interpersonal relations in virtual environments from a specific perspective: the choice of upward influence tactics. We propose that virtualwork settings may impact the upward influence tactic selected, as well as thecommunication medium used to enact it. In particular, we study whether the types of upward influence strategies found in presence environments, are relevant in a virtual work context. This research also analyzes the link between communication media and influence tactics used. Preliminary results suggest that there is an influence tactic that is specific of virtual work relations, which may be called intermediation and consists of finding an intermediary that is well connected with the target and can help in defining the best approach by the agent.

Análisis mediante ratios financieros de la propiedad bancaria en los nuevos miembros de la UE

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar como ha evolucionado y los efectos que el tipo de propiedad tiene sobre el desempeño de los bancos en aquellos países de la Europa Central y del Este, que en los últimos años han experimentado con gran intensidad el proceso de integración europea. Con este fin, hemos analizado 242 bancos correspondientes a 12 países (10 nuevos miembros de la UE y 2 en fase de negociación). Para verificar la existencia de un efecto derivado del tipo de propiedad, analizamos las dimensiones de la eficiencia bancaria, rentabilidad, costes, e intermediación, mediante la aplicación de distintas técnicas, tanto paramétricas como no paramétricas. Los resultados muestran la existencia de ciertos efectos derivados del tipo de propiedad. Así, entre los principales resultados, destaca que los bancos privatizados tienden a presentar unos niveles de rentabilidad superiores a los presentados por otros tipos de propiedad, mientras que a su vez, los bancos de origen extranjero son los que de media presentan unos menores niveles de costes, si bien esta diferencia no es estadísticamente significativa. Analizamos también la importancia que supone la presencia de un inversor estratégico en la propiedad de los bancos, obteniendo una mejoría que si bien no es significativa en los ratios de rentabilidad, si lo es en relación a los gastos generales de gestión.

Globaaliin toimintaympäristöön soveltuva johtamisstrategiamalli

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kuvata ja ymmärtää, millaisella johtamisstrategiamallilla yritys voi saavuttaa menestystä globaalissa toimintaympäristössä. Johtamisstrategia-termi sisältää sekä kilpailu- että konsernistrategian ja käsittää organisaation kilpailustrategian muotoilun ja sen implementoinnin. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin olemassa olevaan tekstiaineistoon perustuvaa tulkitsevaa käsitetutkimusta, jolle on ominaista, ettei tutkija ole vuorovaikutuksessa aineiston tuottajan kanssa. Tutkimuksen aineistona oli kaksi globaaliin toimintaympäristöön soveltuvaa strategisen suunnittelun teosta. Aineiston laadullisella analyysillä tuotettiin vastaukset tutkimuskysymyksiin. Tulkintateoriana käytettiin yrityksen välittäjäteoriaa, joka on talous- ja johtamistieteistä integroitu lähestymistapa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena laadittiin globaaliin toimintaympäristöön soveltuva johtamisstrategiamalli, minkä avulla yritysten strateginen johto ja avustavat asiantuntijat voivat muotoilla omien yritystensä tarpeisiin soveltuvan yksilöllisen strategian, jolla menestyä. Uutta mallissa oli globaaliin muutokseen sopeutumisen tarkastelu integroimalla sekä talous- että johtamistieteiden näkökulmia kilpailustrategiaan huomioiden sekä markkinoiden ulkoiset mahdollisuudet että organisationaaliset resurssit ja pätevyydet.

The role of import intermediary companies in the Russian imports from the EU A case study of a Russian industrial company’s point of view on import intermediaries

The literature on agency suggests different implications for the use of export intermediaries. However, only few studies provide a view on import intermediaries. This thesis tries for its part to fill this research gap by studying the import intermediaries in the EU–Russia trade from a Russian industrial company’s point of view. The aim is to describe import intermediation and explain the need for import intermediary companies in the EU–Russia trade. The theoretical framework of this thesis originates from an article by Peng and York (2001), in which they study the performance of export intermediaries. This thesis applies resource-based theory, transaction cost theory and agency cost theory, following the idea of Peng and York. The resource-based theory approach is utilised for describing an ideal import intermediary company, and transaction cost theory provides a basis for understanding the benefits of using the services of import intermediary companies, while agency cost theory is applied in order to understand the risks the Russian industrial company faces when it decides to use the services of import intermediaries. The study is performed in the form of a case interview with a representative of a major Russian metallurgy company. The results of the study suggest that an ideal intermediary has the skills required specifically for the imports process, in order to save time and money of the principal company. The intermediary company helps reducing the amount of time the managers and the staff of the principal company use to make imports possible, thus reducing the salary costs and providing the possibility to concentrate on the company’s core competencies. The benefits of using the services of import intermediary companies are the reduced transaction costs, especially salary costs that are minimised because of the effectiveness and specialisation of import intermediaries. Intermediaries are specialised in the imports process and thus need less time and resources to organise the imports. They also help to reduce the fixed salary costs, because their services can be used only when needed. The risks of being misled by intermediaries are minimised by the competition on the import intermediary market. In case an intermediary attempts fraud, it gets replaced by its rival.