Zonas Estratégicas e Estruturais para os Trânsitos Ilícitos (ZEETI): desafios à zona de paz na América do Sul

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in the elderly

Background: Delirium is defined as an acute disorder of attention and cognition. Delirium is common in hospitalized elderly patient and is associated with increased morbidity, length of stay and patient care costs. Although Delirium can develop at any time during hospitalization, it typically presents early in the post-operative period (Post-Operative Delirium, POD) in the surgery context. The molecular mechanism and possible genetics basis of POD onset are not known, as well as all the risk factors are not completely defined. Our hypothesis is that genetic risk factor involving the inflammatory response could have possible effects on the immunoneuroendocrine system. Moreover, our previous data (inflamm-aging) suggest that aging is associated with an increase of inflammatory status, favouring age-related diseases such as neurodegenerative diseases, frailty, depression among other. Some pro-inflammatory or anti-inflammatory cytokines, seem to play a crucial role in increasing the inflammatory status and in the communication and regulation of immunoneuroendocrine system. Objective: this study evaluated the incidence of POD in elderly patients undergoing general surgery, clinical/physical and psychological risk factors of POD insurgency and investigated inflammatory and genetic risk factors. Moreover, this study evaluated the consequence of POD in terms of institutionalization, development of permanent cognitive dysfunction or dementia and mortality Methods: patients aged over 65 admitted for surgery at the Urgency Unit of S.Orsola-Malpighi Hospital were eligible for this case–control study. Risk factors significantly associated with POD in univariate analysis were entered into multivariate analysis to establish those independently associated with POD. Preoperative plasma level of 9 inflammatory markers were measured in 42 control subjects and 43 subjects who developed POD. Functional polymorphisms of IL-1 α , IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha cytokine genes were determined in 176 control subjects and 27 POD subjects. Results: A total of 351 patients were enrolled in the study. The incidence of POD was 13•2 %. Independent variables associated with POD were: age, co-morbidity, preoperative cognitive impairment, glucose abnormalities. Median length of hospital stay was 21 days for patients with POD versus 8 days for control patients (P < 0•001). The hospital mortality rate was 19 and 8•4 % respectively (P = 0•021) and mortality rate after 1 year was also higher in POD (P= 0.0001). The baseline of IL-6 concentration was higher in POD patients than patients without POD, whereas IL-2 was lower in POD patients compared to patients without POD. In a multivariate analysis only IL-6 remained associated with POD. Moreover IL-6, IL-8 and IL-2 are associated with co-morbidity, intra-hospital mortality, compromised functional status and emergency admission. No significant differences in genotype distribution were found between POD subjects and controls for any SNP analyzed in this study. Conclusion: In this study we found older age, comorbidity, cognitive impairment, glucose abnormalities and baseline of IL-6 as independent risk factors for the development of POD. IL-6 could be proposed as marker of a trait that is associated with an increased risk of delirium; i.e. raised premorbid IL-6 level predict for the development of delirium.

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

"La estrategia del caracol". El Neozapatismo : Insurgencia indígena y desobediencia civil

A la luz de sus autodefiniciones, se puede advertir el devenir del movimiento zapatista desde una organización indígena-campesina, democrática -y de tinte "multicultural"-, a una fuerza indígena-popular de carácter democrático y anticapitalista. La característica que especifica al movimiento es el haber hecho del problema de "los pueblos indios" una cuestión social y política al mismo tiempo, sin reducirla a un conflicto jurídico-político con el Estado. En el marco de los debates y polémicas -académicas y políticas- generados en los últimos años en torno a este devenir, nos propusimos explorar el proceso, enfocándonos en las relaciones entre las comunidades zapatistas en movimiento, y la sociedad civil mexicana

"La estrategia del caracol". El Neozapatismo : Insurgencia indígena y desobediencia civil

A la luz de sus autodefiniciones, se puede advertir el devenir del movimiento zapatista desde una organización indígena-campesina, democrática -y de tinte "multicultural"-, a una fuerza indígena-popular de carácter democrático y anticapitalista. La característica que especifica al movimiento es el haber hecho del problema de "los pueblos indios" una cuestión social y política al mismo tiempo, sin reducirla a un conflicto jurídico-político con el Estado. En el marco de los debates y polémicas -académicas y políticas- generados en los últimos años en torno a este devenir, nos propusimos explorar el proceso, enfocándonos en las relaciones entre las comunidades zapatistas en movimiento, y la sociedad civil mexicana

"La estrategia del caracol". El Neozapatismo : Insurgencia indígena y desobediencia civil

A la luz de sus autodefiniciones, se puede advertir el devenir del movimiento zapatista desde una organización indígena-campesina, democrática -y de tinte "multicultural"-, a una fuerza indígena-popular de carácter democrático y anticapitalista. La característica que especifica al movimiento es el haber hecho del problema de "los pueblos indios" una cuestión social y política al mismo tiempo, sin reducirla a un conflicto jurídico-político con el Estado. En el marco de los debates y polémicas -académicas y políticas- generados en los últimos años en torno a este devenir, nos propusimos explorar el proceso, enfocándonos en las relaciones entre las comunidades zapatistas en movimiento, y la sociedad civil mexicana

From authoritarianism to upheaval : the political economy of the Syrian uprising and regime persistence

The ensuing bloodshed and deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Syria, the failure of the United Nations Security Council to reach a consensus on what action to take, and the involvement of contending external actors partially reflect the complexity of the current impasse. Despite the importance of regional and international factors, however, this papers attempts to argue that the domestic dynamics of the Syrian crisis have been vitally important in determining the course of the popular uprising and the regime’s response. In this, Syria’s crisis belongs with the Arab Spring the trajectories and prospects of which have been shaped by dynamics within regimes. It will be seen that the formal and informal institutional structure of the Ba‘thist regime in Syria has been critical to its resilience and ability to stay united so far while attempting to crush a peaceful popular uprising that turned into insurgency in the face of the regime’s violent crackdown.

Communicating strategically in the face of terrorism: The Spanish government’s response to the 2004 Madrid bombing attacks

With the re-emergence of insurgency tied to terrorism, governments need to strategically manage their communications. This paper analyzes the effect of the Spanish government’s messaging in the face of the Madrid bombing of March 11, 2004: unlike what happened with the 9/11 bombings in the USA and the 7/07 London attacks, the Spanish media did not support the government’s framing of the events. Taking framing as a strategic action in a discursive form (Pan & Kosicki, 2003), and in the context of the attribution theory of responsibilities, this research uses the “cascading activation” model (Entman, 2003, 2004) to explore how a framing contest was generated in the press. Analysis of the coverage shows that the intended government frame triggered a battle among the different major newspapers, leading editorials to shift their frame over the four days prior to the national elections. This research analyzes strategic contests in framing processes and contributes insight into the interactions among the different sides (government, parties, media, and citizens) to help bring about an understanding of the rebuttal effect of the government’s intended frame. It also helps to develop an understanding of the role of the media and the influence of citizens’ frames on media content.

Slaying the Hydra: Al Qaeda's Evolution and America's Plan of Attack

In response to 9/11, the U.S. launched airstrikes in Afghanistan against al Qaeda to diminish its ability to conduct future attacks. Next, the U.S. turned its attention to Iraq. A series of problems and missteps there subsequently created an opportunity for al Qaeda to evolve, aligning itself with active insurgencies and other terrorist groups around the world. This paper identifies the largely preemptive strategies employed by the U.S. and analyzes how those efforts positively and negatively impacted the War on Terror. While some significant gains were made, the results show that al Qaeda remains a threat to the international community and demands more effective U.S. and international counter-radicalization strategies, including diplomacy and aid, to curb its global appeal.

Kosowo - przed ostatecznym rozwiazaniem. Proces uregulowania statusu miedzynarodowego = uwarunkowania polityczne i historyczne perspektywy rozwoju sytuacji. Prace OSW 2008. Kosovo before the final decision. Regulation Kosovo's international status - historical and political conditions and prospects for future developments. OSW Study 27/2008

The question of Kosovo's status is currently one of the most important issues in international politics. Since 1999, Kosovo has been an international protectorate which was created in the aftermath of the NATO intervention to stop the brutal pacification of the Albanian insurgency by Serb forces. The province has since de facto become independent of Serbia. Resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council, which established the protectorate, does not preclude any possible outcome as regards its status. Aware that after the crimes of 1999, any attempt to re-integrate Kosovo into Serbia would lead to a massive Albanian uprising, the West has decided that the best solution would be to award Kosovo internationally supervised independence, while at the same time granting very wide autonomy to the Kosovo Serbs. Serbia and Russia rejected the solution proposed by the West, and so Kosovo became an arena of international rivalry for influence in the Western Balkans as well as another element of rivalry, transcending the regional dimension, between Russia and the West. Russia has been using the Kosovo case to build a new model of its relations with the United States and the EU. Since there is a group of countries sceptical about, or even opposed to, Kosovo's independence within the EU, the Kosovo settlement will be a test of the EU's ability to speak with one voice with regard to its external policy.

Central Asia on New Delhi's Geostrategic Radar. EUCAM Commentary No. 18, October 2011

Central Asia today holds much strategic interest for India as an emerging 21st Century regional and global power. Despite being a latecomer in what some see as a new ‘Great Game’, New Delhi is keen to reconstruct the ‘Silk Route’. While Indo-Central Asian relations go back to antiquity when cultural, commercial and political ties thrived, post-independence India was physically cut off from Afghanistan and West Asia. It remained embroiled in domestic preoccupations and the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, all of which led to a limited foreign policy until the early nineties and a belated rediscovery of the region.

El Salvador at war : an oral history of conflict from the 1979 insurrection to the present /

Mode of access: Internet.

Terrorism, guerrilla warfare/counterinsurgency/low-intensity conflict, and revolutions : 1986-June 1988 /

"June 1988."

Shades of CORDS in the Kush : the false hope of "unity of effort" in American counterinsurgency /

"Counterinsurgency (COIN) requires an integrated military, political, and economic program best developed by teams that field both civilians and soldiers. These units should operate with some independence but under a coherent command. In Vietnam, after several false starts, the United States developed an effective unified organization, Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS), to guide the counterinsurgency. CORDS had three components absent from our efforts in Afghanistan today: sufficient personnel (particularly civilian), numerous teams, and a single chain of command that united the separate COIN programs of the disparate American departments at the district, provincial, regional, and national levels. This paper focuses on the third issue and describes the benefits that unity of command at every level would bring to the American war in Afghanistan. The work begins with a brief introduction to counterinsurgency theory, using a population-centric model, and examines how this warfare challenges the United States. It traces the evolution of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the country team, describing problems at both levels. Similar efforts in Vietnam are compared, where persistent executive attention finally integrated the government's counterinsurgency campaign under the unified command of the CORDS program. The next section attributes the American tendency towards a segregated response to cultural differences between the primary departments, executive neglect, and societal concepts of war. The paper argues that, in its approach to COIN, the United States has forsaken the military concept of unity of command in favor of 'unity of effort' expressed in multiagency literature. The final sections describe how unified authority would improve our efforts in Afghanistan and propose a model for the future."--P. iii.

The history of the revolutions of Russia to the accession of Catharine the First : including a concise review of the manners and customs of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries /

Includes bibliographical references and index.