It’s not just Russia: Currency crisis in the Commonwealth of independent states. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2015/01, February 2015

The currency crisis that started in Russia and Ukraine during 2014 has spread to neighbouring countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The collapse of the Russian ruble, expected recession in Russia, the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices have negatively affected the entire region, with the consequence that the European Union's entire eastern neighbourhood faces serious economic, social and political challenges because of weaker currencies, higher inflation, decreasing export revenues and labour remittances, net capital outflows and stagnating or declining GDP. •The crisis requires a proper policy response from CIS governments, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass requires rapid resolution, as the first step to return Russia to the mainstream of global economic and political cooperation. Beyond that, both Russia and Ukraine need deep structural and institutional reforms. The EU should deepen economic ties with those CIS countries that are interested in a closer relationship with Europe. The IMF should provide additional assistance to those CIS countries that have become victims of a new regional contagion, while preparing for the possibility of more emerging-market crises arising from slower growth, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices.

The politics of the new Germany

The Politics of the New Germany takes a new approach to understanding politics in the post-unification Federal Republic. Assuming only elementary knowledge, it focuses on debates and issues in order to help students understand both the workings of Germany's key institutions and some of the key policy challenges facing German politicians. Written in a straightforward style by four experts, each of the chapters draws on a rich variety of real-world examples. Packed with boxed summaries of key points, a guide to further reading and a range of seminar questions for discussion at the end of each chapter, this book highlights both the challenges and opportunities facing policy-makers in such areas as foreign affairs, economic policy, immigration, identity politics and institutional reforms. The book also takes a bird's-eye view of the big debates that define German politics over time, regardless of which party happens to be in power. It pinpoints three key themes that have characterised German politics over the last sixty years; reconciliation, consensus and transformation. Table of Contents: Introduction 1. Germany and the Burden of History 2. Germany’s Post-War Development, 1945-1989 3. Towards German Unity? 4. A Blockaded System of Government? 5. The Party System and Electoral Behaviour: The Path to Stable Instability? 6. Economic Management: The End of the German Model? 7. Citizenship and Demographics: A Country of Immigration? 8. The Reform of the Welfare State? 9. Germany and the European Union: A European Germany or a German Europe? 10. Foreign and Security Policy: A New Role for the Twenty-First Century? 11. Conclusion

Europa i świat zachodni:szkodliwe dla gospodarki niedostrzegane lub lekceważone zjawiska

The paper presents an abbreviated version of the second part of the report on problems of Europe, prepared by a team of teachers at the University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszow, Poland. We stress therein that the hotly debated problems of the Eurozone and the global financial crisis and its aftermath are, at best, medium-term ones, while real issues Europe faces are of the long-term nature and result from policies pursued for decades. Their consequences are also long-term – and increasingly harmful. Our diagnosis is as follows. Long-term problems related to the increasing burden of the welfare state and its side effects, like the slowing economic growth rate, are not subject to serious policy debates. It applies to both traditional elites from parties belonging to the moderate political spectrum, and to anti-elites on both extremes. Both elites and anti-elites reject the reality as a starting point to developing corrective policy measures. Our economic analysis has revealed that incentives to create wealth in old Western countries have been weakening for a long time. Yet, without deep cuts in public (especially welfare) expenditures and accompanying institutional reforms, economic performance of European (and generally Western) economies is going to worsen over time. The chances of continued stagnation in the next 5–10 years are very high. Finally, we look at the socio-psychological behavioral framework of the ever-expanding welfare state. We point at the phenomenon of the learned helplessness which appears as a result of the people’s lacking perception of linkages between their actions and economic results of these actions. We interpret it as a consequence of the welfare state. It further weakens the prospects for successful reforms and the resultant avoidance of the long-term stagnation.

An investigation of Albanian EFL teachers' decision-making in their use of CLT-oriented textbooks

Against a backdrop of ongoing educational reforms that seek to introduce Communicative Language Teaching (CLT) in Albanian primary and secondary state schools, Albanian teachers, among others, are officially required to use communication-based textbooks in their classes. Authorities in a growing number of countries that are seeking to improve and westernise their educational systems are also using communication-based textbooks as agents of change. Behind these actions, there is the commonly held belief that textbooks can be used to support teacher learning as they provide a visible framework teachers can follow. Communication-based textbooks are used in thousands of EFL classrooms around the world to help teachers to “fully understand and routinize change” (Hutchinson and Torres, 1994:323). However, empirical research on the role materials play in the classroom, and in particular the role of textbook as an agent of change, is still very little, and what does exist is rather inconclusive. This study aims to fulfill this gap. It is predominately a qualitative investigation into how and why four Albanian EFL teachers use Western teaching resources in their classes. Aiming at investigating the decision-making processes that teachers go through in their teaching, and specifically at investigating the relationship between Western-published textbooks, teachers’ decision making, and teachers’ classroom delivery, the current study contributes to an extensive discussion on the development of communicative L2 teaching concepts and methods, teacher decision making, as well as a growing discussion on how best to make institutional reforms effective, particularly in East-European ex-communist countries and in other developing countries. Findings from this research indicate that, prompted by the content of Western-published textbooks, the four research participants, who had received little formal training in CLT teaching, accommodated some communicative teaching behaviours into their teaching. The use of communicative textbooks, however, does not seem to account for radical, methodological changes in teachers’ practices. Teacher cognitions based on teachers’ previous learning experience are likely to act as a lens through which teachers judge classroom realities. As such, they shape, to a great degree, the decisions teachers make regarding the use of Western-published textbooks in their classes.

The unintended [or intended?] political consequences of electoral systems: The case of Bolivia

The present study was concerned with evaluating one basic institution in Bolivian democracy: its electoral system. The study evaluates the impact of electoral systems on the interaction between presidents and assemblies. It sought to determine whether it is possible to have electoral systems that favor multipartism but can also moderate the likelihood of executive-legislative confrontation by producing the necessary conditions for coalition building. ^ This dissertation utilized the case study method as a methodology. Using the case of Bolivia, the research project studied the variations in executive-legislative relations and political outcomes from 1985 to the present through a model of executive-legislative relations that provided a typology of presidents and assemblies based on the strategies available to them to bargain with each other for support. A complementary model that evaluated the state of their inter-institutional interaction was also employed. ^ Results indicated that executive-legislative relations are profoundly influenced by the choice of the electoral system. Similarly, the project showed that although the Bolivian mixed system for legislative elections, and executive formula favor multipartism, these electoral systems do not necessarily engender executive-legislative confrontation in Bolivia. This was mainly due to the congressional election of the president, and the formulas utilized to translate the popular vote into legislative seats. However, the study found that the electoral system has also allowed for anti-systemic forces to emerge and gain political space both within and outside of political institutions. ^ The study found that government coalitions in Bolivia that are promoted by the system of congressional election of the president and the D'Hondt system to allocate legislative seats have helped ameliorate one of the typical problems of presidential systems in Latin America: the presence of a minority government that is blocked in its capacity to govern. This study was limited to evaluating the impact of the electoral system, as the independent variable, on executive-legislative interaction. However, the project revealed a need for more theoretical and empirical work on executive-legislative bargaining models in order to understand how institutional reforms can have an impact on the incentives of presidents and legislators to form coherent coalitions. ^

Aplicação do exame da proporcionalidade diante da implantação de empreendimentos eólicos em áreas de preservação permanente

The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.

Aplicação do exame da proporcionalidade diante da implantação de empreendimentos eólicos em áreas de preservação permanente

The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.

Geographic Information Systems-Based Approaches to Study Congressional Redistricting in the United States

The ability for the citizens of a nation to determine their own representation has long been regarded as one of the most critical objectives of any electoral system. Without having the assurance of equality in representation, the fundamental nature and operation of the political system is severely undermined. Given the centuries of institutional reforms and population changes in the American system, Congressional Redistricting stands as an institution whereby this promise of effective representation can either be fulfilled or denied. The broad set of processes that encapsulate Congres- sional Redistricting have been discussed, experimented, and modified to achieve clear objectives and have long been understood to be important. Questions remain about how the dynamics which link all of these processes operate and what impact the real- ities of Congressional Redistricting hold for representation in the American system. This dissertation examines three aspects of how Congressional Redistricting in the Untied States operates in accordance with the principle of “One Person, One Vote.” By utilizing data and data analysis techniques of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this dissertation seeks to address how Congressional Redistricting impacts the principle of one person, one vote from the standpoint of legislator accountability, redistricting institutions, and the promise of effective minority representation.

History Matters: How International Regimes Become Entrenched—and Why We Suffer for It

International regimes are composite historical constructions. They are built-up through bricolage, as resource-strapped officials combine operational capacities, frequently turning to outside assistance. Who wins and loses—and why—when organisations are added or subtracted? What happens when inter-organisational relations are recalibrated? Why do regimes cohere as they do? By comparing the development of financial-regulatory regimes and probing other illustrative cases, I offer an explanatory framework that emphasizes the importance of timing and sequencing in determining outcomes. Thinking beyond interstate network effects and switching costs, I distil new data and theoretical insights into how and why temporality matters in global politics. I find that time structures the strategic bargaining contexts that mediate the intense distributional struggles between organisations driving key institutional reforms. The explanatory power of this framework upsets conventional wisdom whereby the distribution of state power, and the dynamics of interstate bargaining, are assumed the critical sources of institutional reform.

Between path dependency and contingency: new challenges for the geography of port system evolution.

Seaports play a critical role as gateways and facilitators of economic interchange and logistics processes and thus have become crucial nodes in globalised production networks andmobility systems. Both the physical port infrastructure and its operational superstructure have undergone intensive evolution processes in an effort to adapt to changing economic environments, technological advances,maritime industry expectations and institutional reforms. The results, in terms of infrastructure, operator models and the role of an individual port within the port system, vary by region, institutional and economic context. While ports have undoubtedly developed in scale to respond to the changing volumes and structures in geographies of trade (Wilmsmeier, 2015), the development of hinterland access infrastructure, regulatory systems and institutional structures have in many instances lagged behind. The resulting bottlenecks reflect deficits in the interplay between the economic system and the factors defining port development (e.g. transport demand, the structure of trade, transport services, institutional capacities, etc. cf. Cullinane and Wilmsmeier, 2011). There is a wide range of case study approaches and analyses of individual ports, but analyses from a port system perspective are less common, and those that exist are seldom critical of the dominant discourse assuming the efficiency of market competition (cf. Debrie et al., 2013). This special section aims to capture the spectrum of approaches in current geography research on port system evolution. Thus, the papers reach from the traditional spatial approach (Rodrigue and Ashar, this volume) to network analysis (Mohamed-Chérif and Ducruet, this volume) to institutional discussions (Vonck and Notteboom, this volume; Wilmsmeier and Monios, this volume). The selection of papers allows an opening of discussion and reflection on current research, necessary critical analysis of the influences on port systemevolution and,most importantly, future directions. The remainder of this editorial aims to reflect on these challenges and identify the potential for future research.

Examinig the roloe of economic liberalization in entrepeneurship: a cross-country study

In the last few decades some authors have underlined the role of institutions and policies for entrepreneurship. North (1990) underlines that entrepreneurs are the main agents of change and that organizations, such as firms set up by entrepreneurs, adapt their activities and strategies to fit the opportunities and limitations provided through formal and informal institutional frameworks. Baumol (1990) hypothesizes that entrepreneurial individuals channel their efforts in different directions depending on the quality of prevailing economic, political, and legal institutions. Sobel (2008) asserts that better institutions have both more productive entrepreneurship and also less unproductive entrepreneurship. He stresses that the best path to foster entrepreneurship is through institutional reforms that constrain or minimize the role of government. In this context, economic freedom may be seen as a significant aspect for entrepreneurial activity and it is frequently argued that economic liberalization encourages entrepreneurship. In this paper we address the extent to which economic freedom, understood as market economy oriented institutions and policies, matters for entrepreneurial activity

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

Contextual politics of service delivery reforms: Lessons from Delhi, Mexico city and Sao Paulo comparison

Little attention has been given to the contextual politics of service delivery reforms. By focusing on cases of reform in the healthcare sector and, to a lesser extent, in the main policies in the social service sector in India, Mexico and Brazil, this article explores two dimensions of analysis which have enormous relevance in understanding the reach and effectiveness of service delivery reforms: (1) the historical timing of reforms and sectorial baselines, and (2) the degree and institutional locus of local discretion in policy. Findings show that depending on both dimensions, there is an extraordinary variation as to the degree, interests involved and meaning of changes which, in theory, correspond to these countries` commitment to the service delivery reforms, However, consideration of the contextual politics is relevant not for the sake of diversity but for the similarities that this diversity reveals, pointing to underlying analytic dimensions that receive attention in this article.