A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

A new gall midge of the genus Dentifibula (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a predator of the scale insect Aulacaspis australis feeding on mangrove Bruguiera gymnorrhiza

Dentifibula nigroapicalisKolesik sp. nov., a new species of gall midge, is described whose larvae were found preying on the mangrove scale insect Aulacaspis australisBrimblecombe (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Diaspididae). The mangrove scale was feeding on leaves of the mangrove Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (Rhizophoraceae) in Queensland. The new species is the first DentifibulaFelt known from Australia. © 2013 Australian Entomological Society.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, lambda > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Nino (2008-09) to a La Nina (2009-10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that lambda was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce lambda in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Cytorhabdovirus phosphoprotein shows RNA silencing suppressor activity in plants, but not in insect cells

RNA silencing in plants and insects provides an antiviral defense and as a countermeasure most viruses encode RNA silencing suppressors (RSS). For the family Rhabdoviridae, no detailed functional RSS studies have been reported in plant hosts and insect vectors. In agroinfiltrated Nicotiana benthamiana leaves we show for the first time for a cytorhabdovirus, lettuce necrotic yellows virus (LNYV), that one of the nucleocapsid core proteins, phosphoprotein (P) has relatively weak local RSS activity and delays systemic silencing of a GFP reporter. Analysis of GFP small RNAs indicated that the P protein did not prevent siRNA accumulation. To explore RSS activity in insects, we used a Flock House virus replicon system in Drosophila S2 cells. In contrast to the plant host, LNYV P protein did not exhibit RSS activity in the insect cells. Taken together our results suggest that P protein may target plant-specific components of RNA silencing post siRNA biogenesis.

The insecticidal spider toxin SFI1 is a knottin peptide that blocks the pore of insect voltage-gated sodium channels via a large β-hairpin loop

Spider venoms contain a plethora of insecticidal peptides that act on neuronal ion channels and receptors. Because of their high specificity, potency and stability, these peptides have attracted much attention as potential environmentally friendly insecticides. Although many insecticidal spider venom peptides have been isolated, the molecular target, mode of action and structure of only a small minority have been explored. Sf1a, a 46-residue peptide isolated from the venom of the tube-web spider Segesteria florentina, is insecticidal to a wide range of insects, but nontoxic to vertebrates. In order to investigate its structure and mode of action, we developed an efficient bacterial expression system for the production of Sf1a. We determined a high-resolution solution structure of Sf1a using multidimensional 3D/4D NMR spectroscopy. This revealed that Sf1a is a knottin peptide with an unusually large β-hairpin loop that accounts for a third of the peptide length. This loop is delimited by a fourth disulfide bond that is not commonly found in knottin peptides. We showed, through mutagenesis, that this large loop is functionally critical for insecticidal activity. Sf1a was further shown to be a selective inhibitor of insect voltage-gated sodium channels, consistent with its 'depressant' paralytic phenotype in insects. However, in contrast to the majority of spider-derived sodium channel toxins that function as gating modifiers via interaction with one or more of the voltage-sensor domains, Sf1a appears to act as a pore blocker.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, λ > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Niño (2008–09) to a La Niña (2009–10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that λ was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce λ in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Studies on Plant Demography: Ranunculus Repens L., R. Bulbosus L. and R. Acris L.: III. A Mathematical Model Incorporating Multiple Modes of Reproduction

This paper presents a comparative population dynamics study of three closely related species of buttercups (Ranunculus repens, R. acris, and R. bulbosus). The study is based on an investigation of the behaviour of the seeds in soil under field conditions and a continuous monitoring of survival and reproduction of some 9000 individual plants over a period of 21/2 years in a coastal grassland in North Wales. The data were analysed with the help of an extension of Leslie's matrix method which makes possible an simultaneous treatment of vegetative and sexual reproduction. It was found that R. repens (a) depends more heavily on vegetative as compared with sexual reproduction, (b) shows indications of negatively density-dependent population regulation, and (c) exhibits little variation in population growth rates from site to site and from one year to the next. In contrast, R. bulbosus (a) depends exclusively on sexual reproduction, (b) shows indications of a positively density-dependent population behaviour, and (c) exhibits great variation in population growth rates from site to site and from one year to the next. R. acris exhibits an intermediate behaviour in all these respects. It is suggested that the attributes of R. repens are those expected of a species inhabiting a stable environment, while R. bulbosus exhibits some of the characteristics of a fugitive species.

Spatial ecology of a specialist insect herbivore : the leaf-mining moth Tischeria ekebladella on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur

Herbivorous insects comprise a major part of terrestrial biodiversity, and their interactions with their host plants and natural enemies are of vast ecological importance. A large body of research demonstrates that the ecology and evolution of these insects may be affected by trophic interactions, by abiotic influences, and by intraspecific processes, but so far research on these individual aspects has rarely been combined. This thesis uses the leaf-mining moth Tischeria ekebladella and the pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) as a case study to assess how spatial variation in trophic interactions and the physical distribution of host trees jointly affect the distribution, dynamics and evolution of a host-specific herbivore. With respect to habitat quality, Tischeria ekebladella experiences abundant variation at several spatial scales. Most of this variation occurs at small scales notably among leaves and shoots within individual trees. While hypothetically this could cause moths to evolve an ability to select leaves and shoots of high quality, I did not find any coupling between female preference and offspring performance. Based on my studies on temporal variation in resource quality I therefore propose that unpredictable temporal changes in the relative rankings of individual resource units may render it difficult for females to predict the fate of their developing offspring. With respect to intraspecific processes, my results suggest that limited moth dispersal in relation to the spatial distribution of oak trees plays a key role in determining the regional distribution of Tischeria ekebladella. The distribution of the moth is aggregated at the landscape level, where local leaf miner populations are less likely to be present where oaks are scarce. A modelling exercise based on empirical dispersal estimates revealed that the moth population on Wattkast an island in south-western Finland is spatially structured overall, but that the relative importance of local and regional processes on tree-specific moth dynamics varies drastically across the landscape. To conclude, my work in the oak-Tischeria ekebladella system demonstrates that the local abundance and regional distribution of a herbivore may be more strongly influenced by the spatial location of host trees than by their relative quality. Hence, it reveals the importance of considering spatial context in the study of herbivorous insects, and forms a bridge between the classical fields of plant-insect interactions and spatial ecology.

Assessment of crop insect damage using unmanned aerial systems: A machine learning approach

Agricultural pests are responsible for millions of dollars in crop losses and management costs every year. In order to implement optimal site-specific treatments and reduce control costs, new methods to accurately monitor and assess pest damage need to be investigated. In this paper we explore the combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), remote sensing and machine learning techniques as a promising technology to address this challenge. The deployment of UAVs as a sensor platform is a rapidly growing field of study for biosecurity and precision agriculture applications. In this experiment, a data collection campaign is performed over a sorghum crop severely damaged by white grubs (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). The larvae of these scarab beetles feed on the roots of plants, which in turn impairs root exploration of the soil profile. In the field, crop health status could be classified according to three levels: bare soil where plants were decimated, transition zones of reduced plant density and healthy canopy areas. In this study, we describe the UAV platform deployed to collect high-resolution RGB imagery as well as the image processing pipeline implemented to create an orthoimage. An unsupervised machine learning approach is formulated in order to create a meaningful partition of the image into each of the crop levels. The aim of the approach is to simplify the image analysis step by minimizing user input requirements and avoiding the manual data labeling necessary in supervised learning approaches. The implemented algorithm is based on the K-means clustering algorithm. In order to control high-frequency components present in the feature space, a neighbourhood-oriented parameter is introduced by applying Gaussian convolution kernels prior to K-means. The outcome of this approach is a soft K-means algorithm similar to the EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models. The results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that consistently classify the field into three clusters, one for each crop health level. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop damage assessments and biosecurity surveillance.

A generic individual-based spatially explicit model as a novel tool for investigating insect-plant interactions: A case study of the behavioural ecology of frugivorous Tephritidae

Computational modelling of mechanisms underlying processes in the real world can be of great value in understanding complex biological behaviours. Uptake in general biology and ecology has been rapid. However, it often requires specific data sets that are overly costly in time and resources to collect. The aim of the current study was to test whether a generic behavioural ecology model constructed using published data could give realistic outputs for individual species. An individual-based model was developed using the Pattern-Oriented Modelling (POM) strategy and protocol, based on behavioural rules associated with insect movement choices. Frugivorous Tephritidae (fruit flies) were chosen because of economic significance in global agriculture and the multiple published data sets available for a range of species. The Queensland fruit fly (Qfly), Bactrocera tryoni, was identified as a suitable individual species for testing. Plant canopies with modified architecture were used to run predictive simulations. A field study was then conducted to validate our model predictions on how plant architecture affects fruit flies’ behaviours. Characteristics of plant architecture such as different shapes, e.g., closed-canopy and vase-shaped, affected fly movement patterns and time spent on host fruit. The number of visits to host fruit also differed between the edge and centre in closed-canopy plants. Compared to plant architecture, host fruit has less contribution to effects on flies’ movement patterns. The results from this model, combined with our field study and published empirical data suggest that placing fly traps in the upper canopy at the edge should work best. Such a modelling approach allows rapid testing of ideas about organismal interactions with environmental substrates in silico rather than in vivo, to generate new perspectives. Using published data provides a saving in time and resources. Adjustments for specific questions can be achieved by refinement of parameters based on targeted experiments.

Assessment of insect occurrence in boreal forests based on satellite imagery and field measurements.

The presence/absence data of twenty-seven forest insect taxa (e.g. Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km2) in Evo, S Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models varied between species, possibly because some species may be associated with the characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocoetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.

Characterization of the genome of Oryctes baculovirus, a viral biocide of the insect pest Oryctes rhinoceros

Oryctes baculovirus is a viral biocide exploited for the control of the insect pest Oryctes rhinoceros. We have recently established a physical map of the genome of the Indian isolate of Oryctes baculovirus (OBV-KI). Here we examine the genomic relatedness between OBV-KI and OBV-PV505, the type isolate (originally from the Philippines), by DNA reassociation kinetics and by the use of restriction endonucleases. On the basis of differences in restriction-enzyme profiles between the two genomes, and previously reported differences in protein profiles and antigenic makeup, we propose the taxonomic status of a variant of Oryctes baculovirus for the Indian isolate.