Integrating geophysical data and upscaling techniques to support regional groundwater flow modelling: A practical example of the Lagan Valley, Northern Ireland

When studying heterogeneous aquifer systems, especially at regional scale, a degree of generalization is anticipated. This can be due to sparse sampling regimes, complex depositional environments or lack of accessibility to measure the subsurface. This can lead to an inaccurate conceptualization which can be detrimental when applied to groundwater flow models. It is important that numerical models are based on observed and accurate geological information and do not rely on the distribution of artificial aquifer properties. This can still be problematic as data will be modelled at a different scale to which it was collected. It is proposed here that integrating geophysics and upscaling techniques can assist in a more realistic and deterministic groundwater flow model. In this study, the sedimentary aquifer of the Lagan Valley in Northern Ireland is chosen due to intruding sub-vertical dolerite dykes. These dykes are of a lower permeability than the sandstone aquifer. The use of airborne magnetics allows the delineation of heterogeneities, confirmed by field analysis. Permeability measured at the field scale is then upscaled to different levels using a correlation with the geophysical data, creating equivalent parameters that can be directly imported into numerical groundwater flow models. These parameters include directional equivalent permeabilities and anisotropy. Several stages of upscaling are modelled in finite element. Initial modelling is providing promising results, especially at the intermediate scale, suggesting an accurate distribution of aquifer properties. This deterministic based methodology is being expanded to include stochastic methods of obtaining heterogeneity location based on airborne geophysical data. This is through the Direct Sample method of Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS). This method uses the magnetics as a training image to computationally determine a probabilistic occurrence of heterogeneity. There is also a need to apply the method to alternate geological contexts where the heterogeneity is of a higher permeability than the host rock.

Combining multi-band and frequency-filtering techniques for speech recognition in noisy environments

While current speech recognisers give acceptable performance in carefully controlled environments, their performance degrades rapidly when they are applied in more realistic situations. Generally, the environmental noise may be classified into two classes: the wide-band noise and narrow band noise. While the multi-band model has been shown to be capable of dealing with speech corrupted by narrow-band noise, it is ineffective for wide-band noise. In this paper, we suggest a combination of the frequency-filtering technique with the probabilistic union model in the multi-band approach. The new system has been tested on the TIDIGITS database, corrupted by white noise, noise collected from a railway station, and narrow-band noise, respectively. The results have shown that this approach is capable of dealing with noise of narrow-band or wide-band characteristics, assuming no knowledge about the noisy environment.

La rétroaction corrective écrite en francisation au Québec : les techniques, les types d’erreurs et la compétence des apprenants à l’écrit

La rétroaction corrective (RC) se définit comme étant un indice permettant à l’apprenant de savoir que son utilisation de la L2 est incorrecte (Lightbown et Spada, 2006). Les chercheurs reconnaissent de plus en plus l’importance de la RC à l’écrit (Ferris, 2010). La recherche sur la RC écrite s’est grandement concentrée sur l’évaluation des différentes techniques de RC sans pour autant commencer par comprendre comment les enseignants corrigent les textes écrits de leurs élèves et à quel point ces derniers sont en mesure d’utiliser cette RC pour réviser leurs productions écrites. Cette étude vise à décrire quelles techniques de RC sont utilisées par les enseignants de francisation ainsi que comment les étudiants incorporent cette RC dans leur révision. De plus, elle veut aussi vérifier si les pratiques des enseignants et des étudiants varient selon le type d’erreur corrigée (lexicale, syntaxique et morphologique), la technique utilisée (RC directe, indirecte, combinée) et la compétence des étudiants à l’écrit (faible ou fort). Trois classes de francisation ont participé à cette étude : 3 enseignants et 24 étudiants (12 jugés forts et 12 faibles). Les étudiants ont rédigé un texte qui a été corrigé par les enseignants selon leur méthode habituelle. Puis les étudiants ont réécrit leur texte en incorporant la RC de leur enseignant. Des entrevues ont aussi été réalisées auprès des 3 enseignants et des 24 étudiants. Les résultats indiquent l’efficacité générale de la RC à l’écrit en langue seconde. En outre, cette efficacité varie en fonction de la technique utilisée, des types d’erreurs ainsi que du niveau de l’apprenant. Cette étude démontre que ces trois variables ont un rôle à jouer et que les enseignants devraient varier leur RC lorsqu’ils corrigent.

Probabilistic Independence Networks for Hidden Markov Probability Models

Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of randomvariables have been explored in a variety of different areas includingstatistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics.Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developedrelatively independently in these research communities. In this paper weexplore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independencenetworks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs.It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbialgorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms forarbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimationalgorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysistools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMMstructures.Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensorfusion and coarticulationin speech recognitionare introduced and treated within the graphical model framework toillustrate the advantages of the general approach.

Discovering similarities in the time use patterns of the Spanish Autonomous Communities by Fuzzy techniques

In 2000 the European Statistical Office published the guidelines for developing the Harmonized European Time Use Surveys system. Under such a unified framework, the first Time Use Survey of national scope was conducted in Spain during 2002– 03. The aim of these surveys is to understand human behavior and the lifestyle of people. Time allocation data are of compositional nature in origin, that is, they are subject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Thus, standard multivariate techniques cannot be directly applied to analyze them. The goal of this work is to identify homogeneous Spanish Autonomous Communities with regard to the typical activity pattern of their respective populations. To this end, fuzzy clustering approach is followed. Rather than the hard partitioning of classical clustering, where objects are allocated to only a single group, fuzzy method identify overlapping groups of objects by allowing them to belong to more than one group. Concretely, the probabilistic fuzzy c-means algorithm is conveniently adapted to deal with the Spanish Time Use Survey microdata. As a result, a map distinguishing Autonomous Communities with similar activity pattern is drawn. Key words: Time use data, Fuzzy clustering; FCM; simplex space; Aitchison distance

Probabilistic sonar scan matching for an AUV

This paper proposes MSISpIC, a probabilistic sonar scan matching algorithm for the localization of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The technique uses range scans gathered with a Mechanical Scanning Imaging Sonar (MSIS), the robot displacement estimated through dead-reckoning using a Doppler velocity log (DVL) and a motion reference unit (MRU). The proposed method is an extension of the pIC algorithm. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the robot-path during the scan in order to reference all the range and bearing measurements as well as their uncertainty to a scan fixed frame before registering. The major contribution consists of experimentally proving that probabilistic sonar scan matching techniques have the potential to improve the DVL-based navigation. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600 m path within an abandoned marina underwater environment with satisfactory results

A comparison between bond graphs switching modelling techniques implemented on a boost dc-dc converter

A Bond Graph is a graphical modelling technique that allows the representation of energy flow between the components of a system. When used to model power electronic systems, it is necessary to incorporate bond graph elements to represent a switch. In this paper, three different methods of modelling switching devices are compared and contrasted: the Modulated Transformer with a binary modulation ratio (MTF), the ideal switch element, and the Switched Power Junction (SPJ) method. These three methods are used to model a dc-dc Boost converter and then run simulations in MATLAB/SIMULINK. To provide a reference to compare results, the converter is also simulated using PSPICE. Both quantitative and qualitative comparisons are made to determine the suitability of each of the three Bond Graph switch models in specific power electronics applications

Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert dynamical forecast information (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts. A logistic model is obtained by setting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear combination of the inputs. As with any statistical model, logistic models will suffer from overfitting if the number of inputs is comparable to the number of forecast instances. Computational approaches to avoid overfitting by regularization are discussed, and efficient techniques for model assessment and selection are presented. A logit version of the lasso (originally a linear regression technique), is discussed. In lasso models, less important inputs are identified and the corresponding coefficient is set to zero, providing an efficient and automatic model reduction procedure. For the same reason, lasso models are particularly appealing for diagnostic purposes.

Influence of probabilistic climate projections on building energy simulation

The Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) produced a technical memorandum (TM36) presenting research on future climate impacting building energy use and thermal comfort. One climate projection for each of four CO2 emissions scenario were used in TM36, so providing a deterministic outlook. As part of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) probabilistic climate projections are being studied in relation to building energy simulation techniques. Including uncertainty in climate projections is considered an important advance to climate impacts modelling and is included in the latest UKCIP data (UKCP09). Incorporating the stochastic nature of these new climate projections in building energy modelling requires a significant increase in data handling and careful statistical interpretation of the results to provide meaningful conclusions. This paper compares the results from building energy simulations when applying deterministic and probabilistic climate data. This is based on two case study buildings: (i) a mixed-mode office building with exposed thermal mass and (ii) a mechanically ventilated, light-weight office building. Building (i) represents an energy efficient building design that provides passive and active measures to maintain thermal comfort. Building (ii) relies entirely on mechanical means for heating and cooling, with its light-weight construction raising concern over increased cooling loads in a warmer climate. Devising an effective probabilistic approach highlighted greater uncertainty in predicting building performance, depending on the type of building modelled and the performance factors under consideration. Results indicate that the range of calculated quantities depends not only on the building type but is strongly dependent on the performance parameters that are of interest. Uncertainty is likely to be particularly marked with regard to thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings.

A comparison of automated keyphrase extraction techniques and of automatic evaluation vs. human evaluation

Keyphrases are added to documents to help identify the areas of interest they contain. However, in a significant proportion of papers author selected keyphrases are not appropriate for the document they accompany: for instance, they can be classificatory rather than explanatory, or they are not updated when the focus of the paper changes. As such, automated methods for improving the use of keyphrases are needed, and various methods have been published. However, each method was evaluated using a different corpus, typically one relevant to the field of study of the method’s authors. This not only makes it difficult to incorporate the useful elements of algorithms in future work, but also makes comparing the results of each method inefficient and ineffective. This paper describes the work undertaken to compare five methods across a common baseline of corpora. The methods chosen were Term Frequency, Inverse Document Frequency, the C-Value, the NC-Value, and a Synonym based approach. These methods were analysed to evaluate performance and quality of results, and to provide a future benchmark. It is shown that Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency were the best algorithms, with the Synonym approach following them. Following these findings, a study was undertaken into the value of using human evaluators to judge the outputs. The Synonym method was compared to the original author keyphrases of the Reuters’ News Corpus. The findings show that authors of Reuters’ news articles provide good keyphrases but that more often than not they do not provide any keyphrases.

Cloud clearing techniques over land for land surface temperature retrieval from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer

We present five new cloud detection algorithms over land based on dynamic threshold or Bayesian techniques, applicable to the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) instrument and compare these with the standard threshold based SADIST cloud detection scheme. We use a manually classified dataset as a reference to assess algorithm performance and quantify the impact of each cloud detection scheme on land surface temperature (LST) retrieval. The use of probabilistic Bayesian cloud detection methods improves algorithm true skill scores by 8-9 % over SADIST (maximum score of 77.93 % compared to 69.27 %). We present an assessment of the impact of imperfect cloud masking, in relation to the reference cloud mask, on the retrieved AATSR LST imposing a 2 K tolerance over a 3x3 pixel domain. We find an increase of 5-7 % in the observations falling within this tolerance when using Bayesian methods (maximum of 92.02 % compared to 85.69 %). We also demonstrate that the use of dynamic thresholds in the tests employed by SADIST can significantly improve performance, applicable to cloud-test data to provided by the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) due to be launched on the Sentinel 3 mission (estimated 2014).

ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Probabilistic neural network to predict cracks in taphole mud used in blast furnaces

One of the major problems facing Blast Furnaces is the occurrence of cracks in taphole mud, as the underlying causes are not easily identifiable. The absence of this knowledge makes it difficult the use of conventional techniques for predictability and mitigation. This paper will address the application of Probabilistic Neural Network using the Matlab software as a means to detect and control such cracks. The most relevant BF operational variables were picked through the statistic tool "Principal Component Analysis - PCA." Based upon the selection of these variables a probabilistic neural network was built. A set of BF operational data, consisting of 30 controlling variables, was divided into 2 groups, one of which for network training, and the other one to validate the neural network. The neural network got 98% of the cases right. The results show the effectiveness of this tool for crack prediction in relation to clay intrinsic properties and as a result of the fluctuation in operational variables.

JVM-based Techniques for Improving Java Observability

Observability measures the support of computer systems to accurately capture, analyze, and present (collectively observe) the internal information about the systems. Observability frameworks play important roles for program understanding, troubleshooting, performance diagnosis, and optimizations. However, traditional solutions are either expensive or coarse-grained, consequently compromising their utility in accommodating today’s increasingly complex software systems. New solutions are emerging for VM-based languages due to the full control language VMs have over program executions. Existing such solutions, nonetheless, still lack flexibility, have high overhead, or provide limited context information for developing powerful dynamic analyses. In this thesis, we present a VM-based infrastructure, called marker tracing framework (MTF), to address the deficiencies in the existing solutions for providing better observability for VM-based languages. MTF serves as a solid foundation for implementing fine-grained low-overhead program instrumentation. Specifically, MTF allows analysis clients to: 1) define custom events with rich semantics ; 2) specify precisely the program locations where the events should trigger; and 3) adaptively enable/disable the instrumentation at runtime. In addition, MTF-based analysis clients are more powerful by having access to all information available to the VM. To demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of MTF, we present two analysis clients: 1) dynamic typestate analysis with adaptive online program analysis (AOPA); and 2) selective probabilistic calling context analysis (SPCC). In addition, we evaluate the runtime performance of MTF and the typestate client with the DaCapo benchmarks. The results show that: 1) MTF has acceptable runtime overhead when tracing moderate numbers of marker events; and 2) AOPA is highly effective in reducing the event frequency for the dynamic typestate analysis; and 3) language VMs can be exploited to offer greater observability.