The use of non-hypothetical experimental markets for measuring the acceptance of genetically modified foods

The findings from a study measuring consumer acceptance of genetically modified (GM) foods are presented. The empirical data were collected in an experimental market, an approach used extensively in experimental economics for measuring the monetary value of goods. The approach has several advantages over standard approaches used in sensory and marketing research (e.g., surveys and focus groups) because of its non-hypothetical nature and the realism introduced by using real goods, real money, and market discipline. In each of three US locations, we elicited the monetary compensation consumers required to consume a GM food. Providing positive information about the benefits of GM food production, in some cases, reduced the level of monetary compensation demanded to consume the GM food. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-dispersal seed predation of non-target weeds in arable crops

Field experiments were conducted to quantify the natural levels of post-dispersal seed predation of arable weed species in spring barley and to identify the main groups of seed predators. Four arable weed species were investigated that were of high biodiversity value, yet of low to moderate competitive ability with the crop. These were Chenopodium album, Sinapis arvensis, Stellaria media and Polygonum aviculare. Exclusion treatments were used to allow selective access to dishes of seeds by different predator groups. Seed predation was highest early in the season, followed by a gradual decline in predation over the summer for all species. All species were taken by invertebrates. The activity of two phytophagous carabid genera showed significant correlations with seed predation levels. However, in general carabid activity was not related to seed predation and this is discussed in terms of the mainly polyphagous nature of many Carabid species that utilized the seed resource early in the season, but then switched to carnivory as prey populations increased. The potential relevance of post-dispersal seed predation to the development of weed management systems that maximize biological control through conservation and optimize herbicide use, is discussed.

Post-dispersal seed predation of non-target weeds in arable crops

Field experiments were conducted to quantify the natural levels of post-dispersal seed predation of arable weed species in spring barley and to identify the main groups of seed predators. Four arable weed species were investigated that were of high biodiversity value, yet of low to moderate competitive ability with the crop. These were Chenopodium album, Sinapis arvensis, Stellaria media and Polygonum aviculare. Exclusion treatments were used to allow selective access to dishes of seeds by different predator groups. Seed predation was highest early in the season, followed by a gradual decline in predation over the summer for all species. All species were taken by invertebrates. The activity of two phytophagous carabid genera showed significant correlations with seed predation levels. However, in general carabid activity was not related to seed predation and this is discussed in terms of the mainly polyphagous nature of many Carabid species that utilized the seed resource early in the season, but then switched to carnivory as prey populations increased. The potential relevance of post-dispersal seed predation to the development of weed management systems that maximize biological control through conservation and optimize herbicide use, is discussed.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

On the spectra and pseudospectra of a class of non-self-adjoint random matrices and operators

In this paper we develop and apply methods for the spectral analysis of non-selfadjoint tridiagonal infinite and finite random matrices, and for the spectral analysis of analogous deterministic matrices which are pseudo-ergodic in the sense of E. B. Davies (Commun. Math. Phys. 216 (2001), 687–704). As a major application to illustrate our methods we focus on the “hopping sign model” introduced by J. Feinberg and A. Zee (Phys. Rev. E 59 (1999), 6433–6443), in which the main objects of study are random tridiagonal matrices which have zeros on the main diagonal and random ±1’s as the other entries. We explore the relationship between spectral sets in the finite and infinite matrix cases, and between the semi-infinite and bi-infinite matrix cases, for example showing that the numerical range and p-norm ε - pseudospectra (ε > 0, p ∈ [1,∞] ) of the random finite matrices converge almost surely to their infinite matrix counterparts, and that the finite matrix spectra are contained in the infinite matrix spectrum Σ. We also propose a sequence of inclusion sets for Σ which we show is convergent to Σ, with the nth element of the sequence computable by calculating smallest singular values of (large numbers of) n×n matrices. We propose similar convergent approximations for the 2-norm ε -pseudospectra of the infinite random matrices, these approximations sandwiching the infinite matrix pseudospectra from above and below.

The tragedy of non-ideal theory

This paper has three aims. First, it argues that the present use of ‘ideal theory’ is unhelpful, and that an earlier and apparently more natural use focusing on perfection would be preferable. Second, it has tried to show that revision of the use of the term would better expose two distinctive normative issues, and illustrated that claim by showing how some contributors to debates about ideal theory have gone wrong partly through not distinguishing them. Third, in exposing those two distinct normative issues, it has revealed a particular way in which ideal theory even under the more specific, revisionary definition will often be central to working out what to do in non-ideal circumstances. By clarifying the terms on which debates over ideal and non-ideal theory should take place, and highlighting the particular problems each deals with, it tries to clear the ground for turning to the actual problem, which is what to do in our non-ideal and often tragic circumstances.

Microscopic origin of non-Gaussian distributions of financial returns

In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formação continuada em educação física e inclusão do deficiente no ensino regular sob a ótica de professores =: The ongoing graduation in physical education studies and the inclusion of disable people in regular schools under the teacher's perception

Pós-graduação em Ciências da Motricidade - IBRC

The implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System and its impact on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions treated in a University Hospital: a research study

Abstract Background The public health system of Brazil is structured by a network of increasing complexity, but the low resolution of emergency care at pre-hospital units and the lack of organization of patient flow overloaded the hospitals, mainly the ones of higher complexity. The knowledge of this phenomenon induced Ribeirão Preto to implement the Medical Regulation Office and the Mobile Emergency Attendance System. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of these services on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions in a University Hospital. Methods The study conducted a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 906 patients older than 13 years of age who entered the Emergency Care Unit of the Hospital of the University of São Paulo School of Medicine at Ribeirão Preto. All presented acute non-traumatic afflictions and were admitted to the Internal Medicine, Surgery or Neurology Departments during two study periods: May 1996 (prior to) and May 2001 (after the implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System). Demographics and mortality risk levels calculated by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were determined. Results From 1996 to 2001, the mean age increased from 49 ± 0.9 to 52 ± 0.9 (P = 0.021), as did the percentage of co-morbidities, from 66.6 to 77.0 (P = 0.0001), the number of in-hospital complications from 260 to 284 (P = 0.0001), the mean calculated APACHE II mortality risk increased from 12.0 ± 0.5 to 14.8 ± 0.6 (P = 0.0008) and mortality rate from 6.1 to 12.2 (P = 0.002). The differences were more significant for patients admitted to the Internal Medicine Department. Conclusion The implementation of the Medical Regulation and Mobile Emergency Attendance System contributed to directing patients with higher gravity scores to the Emergency Care Unit, demonstrating the potential of these services for hierarchical structuring of pre-hospital networks and referrals.

Cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: network meta-analysis

Objective To analyse the available evidence on cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Design Network meta-analysis. Data sources Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings, study registers, the Food and Drug Administration website, reference lists of relevant articles, and reports citing relevant articles through the Science Citation Index (last update July 2009). Manufacturers of celecoxib and lumiracoxib provided additional data. Study selection All large scale randomised controlled trials comparing any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug with other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or placebo. Two investigators independently assessed eligibility. Data extraction The primary outcome was myocardial infarction. Secondary outcomes included stroke, death from cardiovascular disease, and death from any cause. Two investigators independently extracted data. Data synthesis 31 trials in 116 429 patients with more than 115 000 patient years of follow-up were included. Patients were allocated to naproxen, ibuprofen, diclofenac, celecoxib, etoricoxib, rofecoxib, lumiracoxib, or placebo. Compared with placebo, rofecoxib was associated with the highest risk of myocardial infarction (rate ratio 2.12, 95% credibility interval 1.26 to 3.56), followed by lumiracoxib (2.00, 0.71 to 6.21). Ibuprofen was associated with the highest risk of stroke (3.36, 1.00 to 11.6), followed by diclofenac (2.86, 1.09 to 8.36). Etoricoxib (4.07, 1.23 to 15.7) and diclofenac (3.98, 1.48 to 12.7) were associated with the highest risk of cardiovascular death. Conclusions Although uncertainty remains, little evidence exists to suggest that any of the investigated drugs are safe in cardiovascular terms. Naproxen seemed least harmful. Cardiovascular risk needs to be taken into account when prescribing any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug.

Effects of non-ionic iodinated contrast media on patient heart rate and pressures during intra-cardiac or intra-arterial injection

PURPOSE: To compare the effects on heart rate (HR), on left ventricular (LV) or arterial pressures, and the general safety of a non-ionic low-osmolar contrast medium (CM) and a non-ionic iso-osmolar CM in patients undergoing cardiac angiography (CA) or peripheral intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography (IA-DSA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two double-blind, randomized studies were conducted in 216 patients who underwent CA (n=120) or peripheral IA-DSA (n=96). Patients referred for CA received a low-osmolar monomeric CM (iomeprol-350, n=60) or an iso-osmolar dimeric CM (iodixanol-320; n=60). HR and LV peak systolic and end-diastolic pressures were determined before and after the first injection during left and right coronary arteriography and left ventriculography. Monitoring for all types of adverse event (AE) was performed for 24 h following the procedure. t-tests were performed to compare CM for effects on HR. Patients referred for IA-DSA received iomeprol-300 (n=49) or iodixanol-320 (n=47). HR and arterial blood pressure (BP) were evaluated before and after the first 4 injections. Monitoring for AE was performed for 4 h following the procedure. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare mean HR changes across the first 4 injections, whereas changes after the first injection were compared using t-tests. RESULTS: No significant differences were noted between iomeprol and iodixanol in terms of mean changes in HR during left coronary arteriography (p=0.8), right coronary arteriography (p=0.9), and left ventriculography (p=0.8). In patients undergoing IA-DSA, no differences between CM were noted for effects on mean HR after the first injection (p=0.6) or across the first 4 injections (p=0.2). No significant differences (p>0.05) were noted in terms of effects on arterial BP in either study or on LV pressures in patients undergoing CA. Non-serious AE considered possibly CM-related (primarily headache and events affecting the cardiovascular and digestive systems) were reported more frequently by patients undergoing CA and more frequently after iodixanol (14/60 [23.3%] and 2/47 [4.3%]; CA and IA-DSA, respectively) than iomeprol (10/60 [16.7%] and 1/49 [2%], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Iomeprol and iodixanol are safe and have equally negligible effects on HR and LV pressures or arterial BP during and after selective intra-cardiac injection and peripheral IA-DSA. CLINICAL APPLICATION: Iomeprol and iodixanol are safe and equally well tolerated with regard to cardiac rhythm and clinical preference should be based on diagnostic image quality alone.

The timing of extraction of non-restorable first permanent molars: a systematic review.

AIM To identify the ideal timing of first permanent molar extraction to reduce the future need for orthodontic treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS A computerised database and subsequent manual search was performed using Medline database, Embase and Ovid, covering the period from January 1946 to February 2013. Two reviewers (JE and ME) extracted the data independently and evaluated if the studies matched the inclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria were specification of the follow-up with clinical examination or analysis of models, specification of the chronological age or dental developmental stage at the time of extraction, no treatment in between, classification of the treatment result into perfect, good, average and poor. The search was limited to human studies and no language limitations were set. RESULTS The search strategy resulted in 18 full-text articles, of which 6 met the inclusion criteria. By pooling the data from maxillary sites, good to perfect clinical outcome was estimated in 72% (95% confidence interval 63%-82%). Extractions at the age of 8-10.5 years tended to show better spontaneous clinical outcomes compared to the other age groups. By pooling the data from mandibular sites, extractions performed at the age of 8-10.5 and 10.5-11.5 years showed significantly superior spontaneous clinical outcome with a probability of 50% and 59% likelihood, respectively, to achieve good to perfect clinical result (p<0.05) compared to the other age groups (<8 years of age: 34%, >11.5 years of age: 44%). CONCLUSION Prevention of complications after first permanent molars extractions is an important issue. The overall success rate of spontaneous clinical outcome for maxillary extraction of first permanent molars was superior to mandibular extraction. Extractions of mandibular first permanent molars should be performed between 8 and 11.5 years of age in order to achieve a good spontaneous clinical outcome. For the extraction in the maxilla, no firm conclusions concerning the ideal extraction timing could be drawn.

Effectiveness of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of pain in knee and hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.