A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Non-Therapeutic Medication Omissions: Incidence and Predictors at an Australian Hospital

Background: The inconsistent definition of non-therapeutic medication omissions, under-reporting, and a poor understanding of their associated factors hamper efforts to improve medication administration practices. Aim: To examine the incidence of non-therapeutic medication omissions among acutely ill medical and surgical adult patients; and to identify the patient-, drug- and system-related predictors of these omissions. Method: A medication chart audit of 288 acutely ill adult medical and surgical patients admitted to 4 target wards (2 surgical and 2 medical) at an Australian hospital. Patients admitted to these wards from December 2008 to November 2009, with at least one regularly prescribed medication, were eligible. The sample was stratified according to gender, season and ward. A medication chart audit identified medication omissions, and data were collected on gender, age, length of stay, comorbidities, medication history and clinical pharmacy review. Results: Of the 288 medication charts audited, 220 (75%) had one or more medication omissions. Of the 15 020 medication administration episodes, there were 1687 omissions, resulting in an omission rate per medication administration episode of 11%. Analgesics and aperients were the most frequently omitted medications, with failure to sign the medication record and patient refusal, the main reasons for omission. Female gender (p < 0.001) and the number of medication administration episodes (p < 0.001) were statistically significant predictors of non-therapeutic medication omissions. Conclusion: The high incidence of medication omissions suggests there is need for an agreed definition of medication omission and its inclusion as a reportable incident. Increasing medication reconciliation via implementation of the Medication Management Plan may also reduce the opportunity for error. J Pharm Pract Res 2011; 41: 188-91.

Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia - reply

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Environmental contributions to autism: Explaining the rise in incidence of autistic spectrum disorders

The incidence of autism spectrum disorders, a heterogenous group of neurodevelopmental disorders is increasing. In response, there has been a concerted effort by researchers to identify environmental risk factors that explain the epidemiological changes seen with autism. Advanced parental age, maternal migrant status, maternal gestational stress, pregnancy and birth complications, maternal obesity and gestational diabetes, maternal vitamin D deficiency, use of antidepressants during gestation and exposure to organochlorine pesticides during pregnancy are all associated with an increased risk of autism. Folic acid use prior to pregnancy may reduce the risk of autism. Exposure to antenatal ultrasonography, maternal gestational cigarette and alcohol use do not appear to influence the risk of autism in offspring. There is little evidence that exposure to environmental toxins such as thimerosal, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate in early childhood increases the risk of autism. Apart from birth complications, the current evidence suggests that the majority of environmental factors increasing the risk of autism occur in the antenatal period. Consistent with the rise in incidence in autism, some of these environmental factors are now more common in developed nations. Further research is required to determine how these environmental exposures translate to an increased risk of autism. Understanding how these exposures alter neurodevelopment in autistic children may inform both the aetiopathogenesis and the strategies for prevention of autism.

Saudi Arabian adult intensive care unit pressure ulcer incidence and risk factors: A prospective cohort study

The purpose of this study was to identify pressure ulcer (PU) incidence and risk factors that are associated with PU development in patients in two adult intensive care units (ICU) in Saudi Arabia. A prospective cohort study design was used. A total of 84 participants were screened second daily basis until discharge or death, over a consecutive 30-day period, out of which 33 participants with new PUs were identified giving a cumulative hospital-acquired PU incidence of 39·3% (33/84 participants). The incidence of medical devices-related PUs was 8·3% (7/84). Age, length of stay in the ICU, history of cardiovascular disease and kidney disease, infrequent repositioning, time of operation, emergency admission, mechanical ventilation and lower Braden Scale scores independently predicted the development of a PU. According to binary logistic regression analyses, age, longer stay in ICU and infrequent repositioning were significant predictors of all stages of PUs, while the length of stay in the ICU and infrequent repositioning were associated with the development of stages II-IV PUs. In conclusion, PU incidence rate was higher than that reported in other international studies. This indicates that urgent attention is required for PU prevention strategies in this setting.

Incidence and predictors of lower limb split-skin graft failure and primary closure dehiscence in day-case surgical patients

BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.

Comparison of oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell cancer incidence and trends in New Zealand and Queensland, Australia

Background Increases in the incidence of squamous cell oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) have been reported from some countries, but have not been assessed in Australia or New Zealand. This study examines trends for squamous cell OPC and squamous cell oral cavity cancer (OCC) in two similarly sized populations, New Zealand and Queensland, Australia. Methods Incidence data for 1982–2010 were obtained from the respective population-based cancer registries for squamous cell OPC and OCC, by subsite, sex, and age. Time trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were assessed by joinpoint regression. Results The incidence rates of squamous cell OPC in males in New Zealand since 2005 and Queensland since 2006 have increased rapidly, with APCs of 11.9% and 10.6% respectively. The trends were greatest at ages 50–69 and followed more gradual increases previously. In females, rates increased by 2.1% per year in New Zealand from 1982, but by only 0.9% (not significant) in Queensland. In contrast, incidence rates for OCC decreased by 1.2% per year in males in Queensland since 1982, but remained stable for females in Queensland and for both sexes in New Zealand. Overall, incidence rates for both OCC and OPC were substantially higher in Queensland than in New Zealand. In males in both areas, OPC incidence is now higher than that of OCC. Conclusions Incidence rates of squamous cell OPC have increased rapidly in men, while rates of OCC have been stable or reducing, showing distinct etiologies. This has both clinical and public health importance, including implications for the extension of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination to males.

Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in the Asia-Pacific region

Objective: To provide an overview of the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods: Statistical information about breast cancer was obtained from publicly available cancer registry and mortality databases (such as GLOBOCAN), and supplemented with data requested from individual cancer registries. Rates were directly age-standardised to the Segi World Standard population and trends were analysed using joinpoint models. Results: Breast cancer was the most common type of cancer among females in the region, accounting for 18% of all cases in 2012, and was the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths (9%). Although incidence rates remain much higher in New Zealand and Australia, rapid rises in recent years were observed in several Asian countries. Large increases in breast cancer mortality rates also occurred in many areas, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, in contrast to stabilising trends in Hong Kong and Singapore, while decreases have been recorded in Australia and New Zealand. Mortality trends tended to be more favourable for women aged under 50 compared to those who were 50 years or older. Conclusion: It is anticipated that incidence rates of breast cancer in developing countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region will continue to increase. Early detection and access to optimal treatment are the keys to reducing breast cancer-related mortality, but cultural and economic obstacles persist. Consequently, the challenge is to customise breast cancer control initiatives to the particular needs of each country to ensure the best possible outcomes.

Systematic literature review of incidence rates of low-speed vehicle run-over incidents in children

Aim: To systematically review the literature investigating the incidence of fatal and or nonfatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) incidents in children aged 0–15 years. Methods: The following databases were searched using specific search terms, from their date of conception up to June 2011: Cochrane Library, Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMI, Sociological Abstracts, ERIC, PsycArticles, PsycInfo, Urban Studies and Planning; Australian Criminology Database; Dissertations and Thesis; Academic Research Library; Social Services Abstracts; Family and Society; Scopus; and Web of Science. A total of 128 articles were identified in the databases (33 found by hand searching). The title and abstract of these were read, and 102 were removed because they were not primary research articles relating to LSVRO-type injuries. Twenty-six articles were assessed against the inclusion (reporting population level incidence rates) and exclusion criteria, 19 of which were excluded, leaving a total of five articles for inclusion in the review. Findings: Five studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria. The incidence rate in nonfatal LSVRO events varied in the range of 7.09 to 14.79 per 100,000 and from 0.63 to 3.2 per 100,000 in fatal events. Discussion: Using International Classification of Diseases codes for classifying fatal or nonfatal LSVRO incidents is problematic as there is no specific code for LSVRO. The current body of research is void of a comprehensive secular population data analysis. Only with an improved spectrum of incidence rates will appropriate evaluation of this problem be possible, and this will inform nursing prevention interventions. The effect of LSVRO incidents is clearly understudied. More research is required to address incidence rates in relation to culture, environment, risk factors, car design, and injury characteristics. Conclusions: Thevlack of nursing research or policy around this area of injury, most often to children, indicates a field of inquiry and policy development that needs attention.

High incidence of contaminating maternal cell overgrowth in human placental mesenchymal stem/stromal cell cultures: A systematic review

Placenta is a readily accessible translationally advantageous source of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) currently used in cryobanking and clinical trials. MSCs cultured from human chorion have been widely assumed to be fetal in origin, despite evidence that placental MSCs may be contaminated with maternal cells, resulting in entirely maternally derived MSC cultures. To document the frequency and determinants of maternal cell contamination in chorionic MSCs, we undertook a PRISMA-compliant systematic review of publications in the PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases (January 2000 to July 2013) on placental and/or chorionic MSCs from uncomplicated pregnancies. Of 147 studies, only 26 (18%) investigated fetal and/or maternal cell origin. After excluding studies that did not satisfy minimal MSC criteria, 7 of 15 informative studies documented MSC cultures as entirely fetal, a further 7 studies reported cultured human chorionic MSC populations to be either maternal (n=6) or mixed (n=1), whereas 1 study separately cultured pure fetal and pure maternal MSC from the same placenta. Maternal cell contamination was associated with term and chorionic membrane samples and greater passage number but was still present in 30% of studies of chorionic villous MSCs. Although most studies assume fetal origin for MSCs sourced from chorion, this systematic review documents a high incidence of maternal-origin MSC populations in placental MSC cultures. Given that fetal MSCs have more primitive properties than adult MSCs, our findings have implications for clinical trials in which knowledge of donor and tissue source is pivotal. We recommend sensitive methods to quantitate the source and purity of placental MSCs.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Osteopenia and rickets in the extremely low birth weight infant: A survey of the incidence and a radiological classification

A review was carried out of the radiographs of twenty-five infants with birth weights under 1000 G, who survived for more than twenty-eight days; eighteen of these had enough suitable films for a survey of the progressive bone changes which occur in these infants, including estimation of humeral cortical cross-sectional area. The incidence of the changes has been assessed and a typical progression of radiographic appearances has been shown, with a suggested system of staging. All infants showed some loss of bone mineral, with frank changes of rickets occurring in forty-four percent. Aetiological factors are mainly concerned with the difficulty of supplying and ensuring absorption of sufficient bone mineral (calcium and phosphate) and vitamin D. Liver immaturity may be another factor. Disease states additional to prematurity accentuate the problem. Rib fractures occurring around 80–90 days post-nataEy commonly draw attention to the bone disorder and are probably the major clinical factor of importance; there is a high incidence of associated lung disease of uncertain pathology. Attention is drawn to possible confusion with other bone disorders in the post-natal period.

Inbreeding and the incidence of childhood genetic disorders in Karnataka, South India

Consanguineous marriages are strongly favoured among the populations of South India. In a study conducted on 407 infants and children, a total of 35 genetic diseases was diagnosed in 63 persons: 44 with single gene defects, 12 with polygenic disorders, and seven with Down's syndrome. The coefficient of inbreeding of the total study group, F = 0.0414, was significantly higher than that previously calculated for the general population, F = 0.0271, and autosomal recessive disorders formed the largest single disease category diagnosed. The results suggest that long term inbreeding may not have resulted in appreciable elimination of recessive lethals and sub-lethals from the gene pool.

A digital imaging technique to quantify the incidence of internal browning in potato (Solanum tuberosum) tubers

Internal browning disorders, including brown fleck (BF), in potato (Solanum tuberosum) tubers greatly reduce tuber quality, but the causes are not well understood. This is due, in part, to the highly variable data provided by visual value-based rating systems. A digital imaging technique was developed to quantify accurately the incidence of internal browning in potato tubers. Images of tuber sections were scanned using a flatbed scanner and digitally enhanced to highlight tuber BF lesions, and the area of affected tissue calculated using pixel quantification software. Digital imaging allowed for the determination of previously unused indices of the incidence and severity of internal browning in potato tubers. Statistical analysis of the comparison between digitally derived and visual-rating BF data from a glasshouse experiment showed that digital data greatly improved the delineation of treatment effects. The F-test probability was further improved through square root or logarithmic data transformations of the digital data, but not of the visual-rating data. Data from a field experiment showed that the area of tuber affected by BF and the number of small BF lesions increased with time and with increase in tuber size. The results from this study indicate that digital imaging of internal browning disorders of potato tubers holds much promise in determining their causes that heretofore have proved elusive.

Reflexive Incidence Matrx (RIM) Representation of Petr Nets

Although incidence matrix representation has been used to analyze the Petri net based models of a system, it has the limitation that it does not preserve reflexive properties (i.e., the presence of selfloops) of Petri nets. But in many practical applications self-loops play very important roles. This paper proposes a new representation scheme for general Petri nets. This scheme defines a matrix called "reflexive incidence matrix (RIM) c which is a combination of two matrices, a "base matrix Cb,,, and a "power matrix CP." This scheme preserves the reflexive and other properties of the Petri nets. Through a detailed analysis it is shown that the proposed scheme requires less memory space and less processing time for answering commonly encountered net queries compared to other schemes. Algorithms to generate the RIM from the given net description and to decompose RIM into input and output function matrices are also given. The proposed Petri net representation scheme is very useful to model and analyze the systems having shared resources, chemical processes, network protocols, etc., and to evaluate the performance of asynchronous concurrent systems.