Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Estímulos fiscais em um modelo estrutural para o Brasil

A atual crise econômica internacional mostrou que o combate a hiatos do produto utilizando apenas a política monetária pode não ser suficiente. Neste contexto, questões sobre a eficácia de estímulos fiscais temporários como política anticíclica foram levantadas, e adicionalmente quais estímulos fiscais seriam mais benéficos às economias. Este trabalho desenvolveu um modelo estrutural DSGE com características e calibrações para a economia brasileira. O objetivo era realizar um exercício com choques fiscais expansionistas, de modo a analisar seus multiplicadores fiscais. Os resultados sugerem que o impacto de gastos correntes do governo obteve melhor multiplicador fiscal, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, porém teve efeitos acumulativos decrescentes. Por outro lado, o choque de diminuição da alíquota dos impostos sobre consumo obteve baixos multiplicadores fiscais a curto prazo, porém com efeitos crescentes a longo prazo, alcançando multiplicadores de longo prazo similares aos dos gastos do governo.

Lacustrine records of Holocene flood pulse dynamics in the Upper Paraguay River watershed (Pantanal wetlands, Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A device to improve the Schleger and Turner method for sweating rate measurements

The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

The Bauru Group: A continental Cretaceous unit in Brazil - Concepts based on micropaleontological, oxygen isotope and stratigraphical data

The integration of outcrop and subsurface information, including micropaleontological data, facies and sequence stratigraphic studies, and oxygen isotope analysis, allow us to present a new stratigraphic model for the Cretaceous continental deposits of the Bauru Group, Brazil. Thirty-eight fossil taxa were recovered from these deposits, including 29 species of ostracodes and 9 species of charophytes. Seven of these ostracode species and three subspecies are new and formally described here. The associations of Chara barbosai - Ilyocypris cf. riograndensis, found in the Adamantina Formation, and Amblyochara sp. - Neuquenocypris minor mineira nov. subsp., found in the Marília Formation. Ponte Alta Member, represent two distinct groups that are respectively Turonian-Santonian and Maastrichtian (probably Late Maastrichtian) in age. Therefore, a hiatus, encompassing more than 11 Ma, separates those two formations. From bottom to top, four depositional cycles were recognized in the Bauru Group in western São Paulo: cycles 1 and 2 belong to Caiuá Formation (fluvio-lacustrine and lacustrine deposits in the Presidente Prudente region), cycle 3 to the Santo Anastácio and lower Adamantina Formation (respectively fluvial and lacustrine deposits), and cycle 4 to the upper Adamantina Formation (fluvio-lacustrine facies). An erosional unconformity separates the Caiuá and Santo Anastácio Formations (between cycles 2 and 3). The Marília Formation is a distinct unit from the underlying succession; it does not occur in western São Paulo, but is found in restricted areas of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás States. During the deposition of the Bauru Group (Aptian? to Maastrichtian) the climate was hot and arid-semiarid. Shallow lakes underwent fluctuations in expansion (wet phases) and contraction (dry phases), as well as variations in salinity. During the deposition of the Adamantina Formation (Turonian-Santonian) there were long, dry periods that caused segmentation of large lakes (due to topographic irregularities in the basaltic substrate) and sometimes exposures of the lake floors; when flooded these lake floors were colonized by extensive meadows of single species of charophytes. Small ephemeral ponds, that were hydrochemically unstable and colonized by multiple species of charophytes, were the depositional sites for the marls and mudstones of Ponte Alta Member (Maastrichtian, Late Maastrichtian?). Our micropaleontological age control, combined with the Late Cretaceous ages of volcanic ashes found in the southeastern Brazil coastal basins, and the stratigraphic position of analcimites from the Jaboticabal-SP region, suggest a Late Coniacian-Santonian age for important magmatic events occurred in the interior of Brazil (north-central São Paulo State, Triângulo Mineiro, and southwestern Goiás State).

A New Miniature Characid (Ostariophysi: Characiformes: Characidae), with Phylogenetic Position Inferred from Morphological and Molecular Data

Erythrocharax altipinnis is described from the Serra do Cachimbo, Pará, Brazil. The new taxon is distinguished from all of the Characidae genera by having the pelvic bones firmly attached through the isquiatic processes; a nearly triangular hiatus in the musculature covering the anterior chamber of the swim bladder between the first and second pleural ribs (pseudotympanum); the pedunculate, notably expanded and distally compressed teeth in both jaws; circumorbital series represented by antorbital and four infraorbital bones with laterosensory canals not enclosed; a single tooth row in the premaxillary with the teeth perfectly aligned and similar in shape and cusp number; the first three branched dorsal-fin rays distinctly elongate in males; a bright red adipose and caudal fins in life; a conspicuous dark midlateral stripe extending from the opercle to the tip of the median caudal-fin rays; and by the absence of a humeral spot. The phylogenetic position of the new taxon is discussed using morphological and molecular datasets, with conflicting results of both approaches discussed. Additionally, a summarized discussion on the current problems in the Characidae taxonomy is presented and the principal biases in the morphological dataset are also discussed. © 2013 Netto-Ferreira et al.

De versos e trovas: análise de aspectos fonoestilísticos do português medieval por meio das “Cantigas de Santa Maria”

Pós-graduação em Linguística e Língua Portuguesa - FCLAR

Infância, experiência e trabalho docente

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

Sândi vocálico externo no Poruguês Arcaico

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Catches of Humpback Whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, by the Soviet Union and Other Nations in the Southern Ocean, 1947–1973

The great whales of the Southern Ocean were extensively exploited by modern whaling methods, with the first catches made in the Falkland Islands Dependencies region of IWC Management Area II in 1904 (Tønnesson and Johnsen, 1982; Hart, 2006). Exploitation went through several phases. Populations of humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, and blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus, around South Georgia crashed around the time of World War I, and further exploitation occurred in other regions into the 1930’s. There was a hiatus in whaling during World War II, but large-scale catches resumed in Antarctic waters after 1945.

Descrição morfológica do diafragma do sagui-de-tufo-branco (Callithrix jacchus)

O músculo diafragma, encontrado apenas nos mamíferos, é o principal músculo no processo respiratório, servindo de fronteira entre as cavidades torácica e abdominal. Sua importância também ganha destaque em pesquisas realizadas no âmbito dos enxertos, empregando-se diversos tipos de membranas biológicas para o reparo de defeitos diafragmáticos, os quais podem gerar hérnias diafragmáticas. Apesar de muitos estudos já conduzidos para com os primatas não humanos, especialmente no que tange a espécie do novo mundo Callithrix jacchus (Sagui-de-tufo-branco), oriundo do nordeste brasileiro, as pesquisas envolvendo o uso do diafragma em tal espécie é inexistente. Deste modo objetivou-se caracterizar a morfologia e a biometria do diafragma na espécie Callithrix jacchus de ambos os sexos, analisando possíveis divergências estruturais entre machos e fêmeas. Para tal foram utilizados quatros animais, 2 machos e 2 fêmeas, adultos, que vieram a óbito por causas naturais, provenientes de um criadouro comercial. Após fixação em solução de formaldeído 10% os animais foram devidamente dissecados para fotodocumentação e em seguida o diafragma coletado para efetuação da biometria (comprimento e largura) com o uso de um paquímetro e para o processamento histológico por meio da coloração de hematoxilina-eosina e tricrômio de masson, da porção muscular. As mensurações feitas permitiram concluir que não houve diferenças signifcativas entre machos e femeas. A topografia e a presença de três aberturas (forame da veia cava caudal, hiato aórtico e esofágico) na extensão do diafragma corroboram com descrições na literatura classica para outros mamíferos. A presença de um centro tendíneo em "V" difere do encontrado para animais como o peixe-boi e porquinho-da-india, mas é similar ao encontrado para o gambá-de-orelhas-brancas e rato albino. No que diz respeito aos achados histológicos conclui-se que as fibras musculares estão dispostas de forma organizada, apresentam diâmetro grande e núcleos basais, tendo, portanto, características similares do músculo estriado esquelético tanto nos animais machos como nas fêmeas.

Das Paläolithikum der Magdalenahöhle bei Gerolstein

Die vorliegende Arbeit hat das von 1969 – 1972 ergrabene Inventar der Magdalenahöhle bei Gerolstein unter kritischer Berücksichtigung der Originaldokumentation sowie der stratigraphischen und sedimentologischen Beschreibungen erneut untersucht und v.a. hinsichtlich zweier Arbeitshypothesen überprüft. Daneben fanden jedoch auch die Schmuckobjekte und in kursorischer Weise die Tierknochen Betrachtung. Die Elfenbeinobjekte setzen sich aus elf Fragmenten zusammen, die bereits in zerbrochenem Zustand in die Höhle gelangt sein müssen. Sie sind mit mehreren Linienbündeln verziert, die teilweise aus v- oder zickzack-förmigen Motiven bestehen. Auch gestanzte Punktreihen treten auf. In ihrer Größe und Form sind die Elfenbeinobjekte einzigartig. Lediglich aus der Csákvár-Höhle in Ungarn gibt es vergleichbare Stücke, deren genaue Altersstellung jedoch unklar ist. Daneben kommen in der Magdalenahöhle zwei vollständige durchlochte Hirschgrandeln sowie die Fragmente einer durchlochten Grandel sowie eines durchlochten Wolfzahns vor. Diese tragen teilweise Spuren einer Aufhängung bzw. Befestigung. Der Grund für ihre Niederlegung vor Ort ist indes nicht endgültig zu klären. Die überlieferten Tierknochen besitzen verschiedene Grade von Verfärbung und Erhaltung, lassen sich dadurch jedoch nicht verschiedenen Schichten zuordnen. Neben Modifikationen von Carnivoren, darunter v.a. durch Verdauungsprozesse, sind auch an einigen Exemplaren Schnittspuren festgestellt worden. Eine Bärenphalange aus der Fundschicht b1 eröffnet so die Perspektive, die menschliche Belegung erneut mit der Radiokohlenstoffmethode direkt zu datieren. Der Untere paläolithische Fundhorizont besteht aus relativ unspezifischen Quarzartefakten, die von einer opportunistischen Abschlags- und Werkzeugsgewinnung aus lokalen Schottern zeugen. Für den Oberen paläolithischen Fundhorizont zeigt die Steinartefaktanalyse, dass die Abschläge als Herstellungsreste dünner bifazieller Geräte angesprochen werden können. Während dieser Befund alleine auch im Zusammenhang mit den spätmittelpaläolithischen Blattspitzengruppen gesehen werden kann, sprechen die bereits erwähnten vergesellschafteten Schmuckobjekte, der Nachweis eines Klingenabbaus sowie die fast ausschließliche Verwendung exogenen Rohmaterials für einen jungpaläolithischen Kontext, d.h. für eine Affinität zum Solutréen. Die Steinartefakte der Magdalenahöhle zeugen gleichzeitig von einer sehr mobilen Lebensweise, da lediglich eine Phase des Herstellungsprozesses des bifaziellen Geräts vor Ort stattgefunden hat. Gleichzeitig wurden früher an anderem Ort gewonnene Abschläge mitgebracht und als Werkzeug verwendet. Ebenso wie der Kern selbst wurden Abschläge auch wieder abtransportiert. Insgesamt kann daher eine Rohmaterial konservierende Strategie rekonstruiert werden, in der neben dem Kern als Gerät selbst auch die Abschläge Verwendung finden. Da die Magdalenahöhle als östlicher Niederschlag des Solutréen und als Beleg für das maximale Verbreitungsgebiet dieses Technokomplexes gewertet werden muss, reiht sie sich in eine Reihe von Fundstellen und Argumenten ein, wonach das zentrale Mitteleuropa während des LGM s.l. nicht menschenleer war, sondern in sporadischen Exkursionen begangen wurde. Obwohl sich daran noch keine dauerhafte Wiederbesiedlung anschloss, muss vom Bild einer absoluten Siedlungsleere Abstand genommen werden. Weitere Fundstellen und absolutchronologische Datierungen, u.a. der Magdalenahöhle, könnten in Zukunft zu einem noch besseren Verständnis der menschlichen Anpassungsstragien an kaltzeitliche Umwelten beitragen.

[ECG-gated chest CT angiography: value for atypical chest pain evaluation]

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate ECG-gated whole chest CTA as a routine triage tool for patients with acute chest pain. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Whole chest CTA with retrospective ECG-gating was performed in 30 patients with acute atypical chest pain. The ten main segments of the coronary arteries, the pulmonary arteries, the aorta, and the myocardium (function, morphology) were independently analyzed by a resident and two senior radiologists. The inter-observer agreement between resident and senior radiologists was calculated. A final diagnosis was determined by consensus. RESULTS: Thirty patients were included. The coronary artery segments, myocardium and pulmonary arteries were considered analyzable in 84%, 90% and 97% of cases respectively. A final diagnosis for the cause of pain was retained in 19 patients: significant coronary artery stenosis (5), pulmonary embolus (5), aortic dissection (1), hypokinetic cardiomyopathy (2), lung parenchymal abnormalities (5), and hiatus hernia (1). Inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 1 between senior radiologists and from 0.76 to 1 between resident and senior radiologists. The average time of image interpretation ranged from 14 to 15 minutes. CONCLUSION: ECG-gated whole chest CT angiography appears as a promising tool for the evaluation of acute chest pain. Combined evaluation of appearance and function of the myocardium can reveal additional interesting information.

A paleoclimate record with tephrochronological age control for the last glacial-interglacial cycle from Lake Ohrid, Albania and Macedonia

Abstract Lake Ohrid is probably of Pliocene age, and the oldest extant lake in Europe. In this study climatic and environmental changes during the last glacial-interglacial cycle are reconstructed using lithological, sedimentological, geochemical and physical proxy analysis of a 15-m-long sediment succession from Lake Ohrid. A chronological framework is derived from tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating, which yields a basal age of ca. 136 ka. The succession is not continuous, however, with a hiatus between ca. 97.6 and 81.7 ka. Sediment accumulation in course of the last climatic cycle is controlled by the complex interaction of a variety of climate-controlled parameters and their impact on catchment dynamics, limnology, and hydrology of the lake. Warm interglacial and cold glacial climate conditions can be clearly distinguished from organic matter, calcite, clastic detritus and lithostratigraphic data. During interglacial periods, short-term fluctuations are recorded by abrupt variations in organic matter and calcite content, indicating climatically-induced changes in lake productivity and hydrology. During glacial periods, high variability in the contents of coarse silt to fine sand sized clastic matter is probably a function of climatically-induced changes in catchment dynamics and wind activity. In some instances tephra layers provide potential stratigraphic markers for short-lived climate perturbations. Given their widespread distribution in sites across the region, tephra analysis has the potential to provide insight into variation in the impact of climate and environmental change across the Mediterranean.

Anatomic pathways of peripancreatic fluid draining to mediastinum in recurrent acute pancreatitis: visible human project and CT study

BACKGROUND In past reports, researchers have seldom attached importance to achievements in transforming digital anatomy to radiological diagnosis. However, investigators have been able to illustrate communication relationships in the retroperitoneal space by drawing potential routes in computerized tomography (CT) images or a virtual anatomical atlas. We established a new imaging anatomy research method for comparisons of the communication relationships of the retroperitoneal space in combination with the Visible Human Project and CT images. Specifically, the anatomic pathways of peripancreatic fluid extension to the mediastinum that may potentially transform into fistulas were studied. METHODS We explored potential pathways to the mediastinum based on American and Chinese Visible Human Project datasets. These drainage pathways to the mediastinum were confirmed or corrected in CT images of 51 patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis in 2011. We also investigated whether additional routes to the mediastinum were displayed in CT images that were not in Visible Human Project images. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS All hypothesized routes to the mediastinum displayed in Visible Human Project images, except for routes from the retromesenteric plane to the bilateral retrorenal plane across the bilateral fascial trifurcation and further to the retrocrural space via the aortic hiatus, were confirmed in CT images. In addition, route 13 via the narrow space between the left costal and crural diaphragm into the retrocrural space was demonstrated for the first time in CT images. CONCLUSION This type of exploration model related to imaging anatomy may be used to support research on the communication relationships of abdominal spaces, mediastinal spaces, cervical fascial spaces and other areas of the body.