Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Natural convection from a vertical plate embedded in a stratified medium with uniform heat source

Natural convection flow from an isothermal vertical plate with uniform heat source embedded in a stratified medium has been discussed in this paper. The resulting momentum and energy equations of boundary layer approximation are made non-similar by introducing the usual non-similarity transformations. Numerical solutions of these equations are obtained by an implicit finite difference method for a wide range of the stratification parameter, X. The solutions are also obtained for different values of pertinent parameters, namely, the Prandtl number, Pr and the heat generation or absorption parameter, λ and are expressed in terms of the local skin-friction and local heat transfer, which are shown in the graphical form. Effect of heat generation or absorption on the streamlines and isotherms are also shown graphically for different values of λ.

Prandtl number scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate due to uniform surface heat flux

A new scaling analysis has been performed for the unsteady natural convection boundary layer under a downward facing inclined plate with uniform heat flux. The development of the thermal or viscous boundary layers may be classified into three distinct stages including a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical as well as numerical results. Earlier scaling shows that the existing scaling laws of the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time scale for the natural convection flow on a heated plate of uniform heat flux provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings performed very well with Rayleigh number and aspect ratio dependency. In this study, a new Prandtl number scaling has been developed using a triple-layer integral approach for Pr > 1. It is seen that in comparison to the direct numerical simulations, the new scaling performs considerably better than the previous scaling.

Free convection in a triangular enclosure with fluid-saturated porous medium and internal heat generation

Unsteady natural convection inside a triangular cavity has been studied in this study. The cavity is filled with a saturated porous medium with non-isothermal left inclined wall while the bottom surface is isothermally heated and the right inclined surface is isothermally cold. An internal heat generation is also considered which is dependent of the fluid temperature. The governing equations are solved numerically by finite element method. The Prandtl number of the fluid is considered as 0.7 (air) while the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number are considered as 0.5 and 105 respectively. The effect of the porosity of the medium and heat generation on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been presented as a form of streamlines and isotherms. The rate of heat transfer through three surfaces of the enclosure is also presented.

Free convection heat transfer through coupled thermal boundary layers in a partitioned triangular enclosure

A numerical investigation has been carried out for the coupled thermal boundary layers on both sides of a partition placed in an isosceles triangular enclosure along its middle symmetric line. The working fluid is considered as air which is initially quiescent. A sudden temperature difference between two zones of the enclosure has been imposed to trigger the natural convection. It is anticipated from the numerical simulations that the coupled thermal boundary layers development adjacent to the partition undergoes three distinct stages; namely an initial stage, a transitional stage and a steady state stage. Time dependent features of the coupled thermal boundary layers as well as the overall natural convection flow in the partitioned enclosure have been discussed and compared with the non-partitioned enclosure. Moreover, heat transfer as a form of local and overall average Nusselt number through the coupled thermal boundary layers and the inclined walls is also examined. The details results will be discussed in the full paper.

Effect of MHD and heat generation on natural convection flow in an open square cavity under microgravity condition

Purpose - Thermo-magnetic convection and heat transfer of paramagnetic fluid placed in a micro-gravity condition (g = 0) and under a uniform vertical gradient magnetic field in an open square cavity with three cold sidewalls have been studied numerically. Design/methodology/approach - This magnetic force is proportional to the magnetic susceptibility and the gradient of the square of the magnetic induction. The magnetic susceptibility is inversely proportional to the absolute temperature based on Curie’s law. Thermal convection of a paramagnetic fluid can therefore take place even in zero-gravity environment as a direct consequence of temperature differences occurring within the fluid due to a constant internal heat generation placed within a magnetic field gradient. Findings - Effects of magnetic Rayleigh number, Ra, Prandtl number, Pr, and paramagnetic fluid parameter, m, on the flow pattern and isotherms as well as on the heat absorption are presented graphically. It is found that the heat transfer rate is suppressed in increased of the magnetic Rayleigh number and the paramagnetic fluid parameter for the present investigation. Originality/value - It is possible to control the buoyancy force by using the super conducting magnet. To the best knowledge of the author no literature related to magnetic convection for this configuration is available.

Scaling for the Prandtl number of the natural convection boundary layer of an inclined flat plate under uniform surface heat flux

An improved scaling analysis and direct numerical simulations are performed for the unsteady natural convection boundary layer adjacent to a downward facing inclined plate with uniform heat flux. The development of the thermal or viscous boundary layers may be classified into three distinct stages: a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical as well as the numerical results. Previous scaling shows that the existing scaling laws of the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time scale for the natural convection flow on a heated plate of uniform heat flux provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings perform very well with Rayleigh number and aspect ratio dependency. In this study, a modified Prandtl number scaling is developed using a triple layer integral approach for Pr > 1. It is seen that in comparison to the direct numerical simulations, the modified scaling performs considerably better than the previous scaling.

Heat reject recovery in solar air conditioning

This study demonstrates the possibility of using an absorption chiller to produce chilled water for air conditioning, and at the same time recover the rejected heat producing domestic hot water. The absorption chiller considered for this application has been sized to suit a standard household and uses a solution of ammonia and water running on hot water at a temperature ranging from 80 - 120°C produced by thermal solar panels. The system consists of five main components: generator, rectifier, condenser, evaporator and absorber, and is divided in two sections at two different pressures. The section at higher pressure includes the generator, rectifier and condenser whereas the section at lower pressure includes the evaporator and the absorber. Heat in this type of system is usually rejected to the environment from the condenser, rectifier and absorber through a cooling tower or air cooler exchanger. In this paper we describe how to recover this heat to create domestic hot water by providing a quantitative evaluation of the amount of energy recovered by the proposed system, if used in the Australian region.

Free convection in a triangular enclosure with fluid-saturated porous medium and internal heat generation

Unsteady natural convection inside a triangular cavity has been studied in this study. The cavity is filled with a saturated porous medium with non-isothermal left inclined wall while the bottom surface is isothermally heated and the right inclined surface is isothermally cooled. An internal heat generation is also considered which is dependent on the fluid temperature. The governing equations are solved numerically by finite volume method. The Prandtl number, Pr of the fluid is considered as 0.7 (air) while the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number, Ra are considered as 0.5 and 105 respectively. The effect of heat generation on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been presented as a form of streamlines and isotherms. The rate of heat transfer through three surfaces of the enclosure is also presented.

Double diffusive magneto-convection fluid flow in a strong cross magnetic field with uniform surface heat and mass flux

In this study, magnetohydrodynamic natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and viscous incompressible fluid along a heated vertical flat plate with uniform heat and mass flux in the presence of strong cross magnetic field has been investigated. For smooth integrations the boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation as well as the free variable formulation. The nonsimilar parabolic partial differential equations are integrated numerically for Pr ≪1 that is appropriate for liquid metals against the local Hartmann parameter ξ . Further, asymptotic solutions are obtained near the leading edge using regular perturbation method for smaller values of ξ . Solutions for values of ξ ≫ 1 are also obtained by employing the matched asymptotic technique. The results obtained for small, large and all ξ regimes are examined in terms of shear stress, τw, rate of heat transfer, qw, and rate of mass transfer, mw, for important physical parameter. Attention has been given to the influence of Schmidt number, Sc, buoyancy ratio parameter, N and local Hartmann parameter, ξ on velocity, temperature and concentration distributions and noted that velocity and temperature of the fluid achieve their asymptotic profiles for Sc ≥ 10:0.

A research framework for assessing the effects of heat stress on construction workers

Hong Kong in summer (June - October) is hot and humid. Construction workers have to undertake physically demanding activities and often in confined spaces. They are vulnerable to heat stress in summer hence health and safety measures associated to heat stress measured by scientific and clinical parameters are urgently needed. This paper provides an initial report of a research project funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the HKSAR. The aim of this study is to develop a set of indices measured by clinical and scientific methods to detect impending attacks of heat stress. These indices would be of tremendous value in better safeguarding workers’ health and safety by reducing the occurrences of heat stress on site. This paper firstly reports on the statistics of construction incidents arising from heat stress. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are discussed. It is believed that the construction industry and the government would benefit a lot as a result of this study.

Prandtl number scaling of the unsteady natural convection boundary layer adjacent to a vertical flat plate for Pr > 1 subject to ramp surface heat flux

It is found in the literature that the existing scaling results for the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time for the natural convection flow over an evenly heated plate provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings provide a good prediction of two other governing parameters’ dependency, the Rayleigh number and the aspect ratio. Therefore, an improved scaling analysis using a triple-layer integral approach and direct numerical simulations have been performed for the natural convection boundary layer along a semi-infinite flat plate with uniform surface heat flux. This heat flux is a ramp function of time, where the temperature gradient on the surface increases with time up to some specific time and then remains constant. The growth of the boundary layer strongly depends on the ramp time. If the ramp time is sufficiently long, the boundary layer reaches a quasi steady mode before the growth of the temperature gradient is completed. In this mode, the thermal boundary layer at first grows in thickness and then contracts with increasing time. However, if the ramp time is sufficiently short, the boundary layer develops differently, but after the wall temperature gradient growth is completed, the boundary layer develops as though the startup had been instantaneous.

Prandtl number scaling of natural convection of the flow on an inclined at plate due to uniform surface heat flux

A new scaling analysis has been performed for the unsteady natural convection boundary layer under a downward facing inclined plate with uniform heat flux. The development of the thermal or viscous boundary layers may be classified into three distinct stages including an early stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical as well as numerical results. Earlier scaling shows that the existing scaling laws of the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time scales for the natural convection flow on a heated plate of uniform heat flux provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency. However, those scalings performed very well with Rayleigh number and aspect ratio dependency. In this study, a modifed Prandtl number scaling has been developed using a triple-layer integral approach for Pr > 1. It is seen that in comparison to the direct numerical simulations, the new scaling performs considerably better than the previous scaling.