Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^

Estimates of life expectancy gains from reducing/eliminating major causes of death in the USA: An update analysis for population in 2001--2008

Evaluation of the impact of a disease on life expectancy is an important part of public health. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) that can properly take into account the competing risks are an effective indicator for measuring the impact of the multiple causes of death. This study aimed to measure the PGLEs from reducing/eliminating the major causes of death in the USA from 2001 to 2008. To calculate the PGLEs due to the elimination of specific causes of death, the age-specific mortality rates for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer disease, kidney diseases and HIV/AIDS and life table constructing data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics, and the multiple decremental life tables were constructed. The PGLEs by elimination of heart disease, malignant neoplasms or HIV/AIDS continued decreasing from 2001 to 2008, but the PGLE by elimination of Alzheimer's disease or kidney diseases revealed increased trends. The PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of heart disease 2001–2008 were 0.336–0.299, 0.327–0.301, 0.344–0.295, 0.360–0.315, 0.349–0.317, 0.371–0.316,0.278–0.251, 0.272–0.255, and 0.282–0.246 respectively. Similarly, the PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or HIV/AIDS 2001–2008 were also uncovered, respectively. Most diseases affect specific population, such as, HIV/AIDS tends to have a greater impact on people of working age, heart disease and malignant neoplasms have a greater impact on people over 65 years of age, but Alzheimer's disease and kidney diseases have a greater impact on people over 75 years of age. To measure the impact of these diseases on life expectancy in people of working age, partial multiple decremental life tables were constructed and the PGLEs were computed by partial or complete elimination of various causes of death during the working years. Thus, the results of the study outlined a picture of how each single disease could affect the life expectancy in age-, race-, or sex-specific population in USA. Therefore, the findings would not only assist to evaluate current public health improvements, but also provide useful information for future research and disease control programs.^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

Delayed symptom onset and increased life expectancy in Sandhoff disease mice treated with N-butyldeoxynojirimycin

Sandhoff disease is a neurodegenerative disorder resulting from the autosomal recessive inheritance of mutations in the HEXB gene, which encodes the β-subunit of β-hexosaminidase. GM2 ganglioside fails to be degraded and accumulates within lysosomes in cells of the periphery and the central nervous system (CNS). There are currently no therapies for the glycosphingolipid lysosomal storage diseases that involve CNS pathology, including the GM2 gangliosidoses. One strategy for treating this and related diseases is substrate deprivation. This would utilize an inhibitor of glycosphingolipid biosynthesis to balance synthesis with the impaired rate of catabolism, thus preventing storage. One such inhibitor is N-butyldeoxynojirimycin, which currently is in clinical trials for the potential treatment of type 1 Gaucher disease, a related disease that involves glycosphingolipid storage in peripheral tissues, but not in the CNS. In this study, we have evaluated whether this drug also could be applied to the treatment of diseases with CNS storage and pathology. We therefore have treated a mouse model of Sandhoff disease with the inhibitor N-butyldeoxynojirimycin. The treated mice have delayed symptom onset, reduced storage in the brain and peripheral tissues, and increased life expectancy. Substrate deprivation therefore offers a potentially general therapy for this family of lysosomal storage diseases, including those with CNS disease.

Chronic elevation of plasma thioredoxin: Inhibition of chemotaxis and curtailment of life expectancy in AIDS

Thioredoxin (Trx) is an intracellular redox protein with extracellular cytokine-like and chemokine-like activities. We show here that, although plasma Trx levels are unrelated to survival of HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200/μl blood, survival is significantly impaired (P = 0.003) when plasma Trx is chronically elevated in HIV-infected subjects with CD4 T cell counts below this level (i.e., with Centers for Disease Control (CDC)-defined AIDS). Relevant to the mechanism potentially underlying this finding, we also present data from experimental studies in mice showing that elevated plasma Trx efficiently blocks lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced chemotaxis, an innate immune mechanism that is particularly crucial when adaptive immunity is compromised. Thus, we propose that elevated plasma Trx in HIV-infected individuals with low CD4 T cell counts directly impairs survival by blocking pathogen-induced chemotaxis, effectively eliminating the last (innate) barrier against establishment of opportunistic and other infections in these immunodeficient individuals.

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by average relative earnings /

"SSA publication no. 13-11712"--Cover p. [4].

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Life expectancy for community-based patients with heart failure from time of diagnosis

AIMS: Heart failure has been demonstrated in previous studies to have a dismal prognosis. However, the modern-day prognosis of patients with new onset heart failure diagnosed in the community managed within a disease management programme is not known. The purpose of this study is to report on prognosis of patients presenting with new onset heart failure in the community who are subsequently followed in a disease management program.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A review of patients referred to a rapid access heart failure diagnostic clinic between 2002 and 2012 was undertaken. Details of diagnosis, demographics, medical history, medications, investigations and mortality data were analysed. A total of 733 patients were seen in Rapid Access Clinic for potential new diagnosis of incident of heart failure. 38.9% (n=285) were diagnosed with heart failure, 40.7% (n=116) with HF-REF and 59.3% (n=169) with HF-PEF. There were 84 (29.5%) deaths in the group of patients diagnosed with heart failure; 41 deaths (35.3%) occurred in patients with HF-REF and 43 deaths (25.4%) occurred in patients with HF-PEF. In patients with heart failure, 52.4% (n=44) died from cardiovascular causes. 63.8% of HF patients were alive after 5 years resulting on average in a month per year loss of life expectancy over that period compared with aged matched simulated population.

CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based cohort, the prognosis of heart failure was better than reported in previous studies. This is likely due to the impact of prompt diagnosis, the improvement in therapies and care within a disease management structure.

STOPPFrail (Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in Frail Adults with Limited Life Expectancy): Consensus Validation

Background: To validate STOPPFrail, a list of explicit criteria for potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in frailer older adults with limited life expectancy. A Delphi consensus survey of an expert panel (n = 17) comprising specialists in geriatric medicine, clinical pharmacology, palliative care, psychiatry of old age, clinical pharmacy and general practice.
Methods: STOPPFrail criteria was initially created by the authors based on clinical
experience and appraisal of the available literature. Criteria were organised according to physiological system. Each criterion was accompanied by an explanation. Panellists ranked their agreement with each criterion on a 5-point Likert scale and invited to provide written feedback. Criteria with a median Likert response of 4/5 (agree/strongly agree) and a 25th centile of ≥4 were included in the final criteria.
Results: Three Delphi rounds were required. All panellists completed all rounds. Thirty criteria were proposed for inclusion; 26 were accepted. No new criteria were added. The first two criteria suggest deprescribing medications with no indication or where compliance is poor. The remaining 24 criteria include lipid-lowering therapies, alpha-blockers for hypertension, anti-platelets, neuroleptics, proton pump inhibitors, H-2 receptor antagonists, anti-spasmodics, theophylline, leukotriene antagonists, calcium supplements, bone anti-resorptive therapy, selective oestrogen receptor modulators, non-steroidal antiinflammatories, corticosteroids, 5-alpha reductase inhibitors, alpha-1 selective blockers, muscarinic antagonists, oral diabetic agents, ACE-inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, systemic oestrogens, multivitamins, nutritional supplements and prophylactic antibiotics. Anticoagulants and anti-depressants were excluded. Despite incorporation of panellists’ suggestions, memantine and acetyl-cholinesterase inhibitors remained inconclusive.
Conclusion: STOPPFrail comprises 26 criteria, which have been judged by broad consensus, to be potentially inappropriate in frailer older patients with limited life expectancy. STOPPFrail may assist in deprescribing medications in these patients.

Life expectancy: recent trends in older ages

Over the last 30 years there has been an upward trend in life expectancy at older ages in England. Figures 1 and 2 show life expectancy in England at ages 65, 75, 85 and 95 from 1981 to 2014. The data points shaded red in Figures 1 and 2 indicate where life expectancy in that year was lower than in the previous year, showing that there is some fluctuation in life expectancy at these age groups, although the overall trend has been upwards. Male life expectancy was lower in 2012 than 2011 at ages 85 and 95, and at ages 65 and 75 it was the same in both years. There were no further falls in 2013. This flattening of the recent trend has not continued in 2014, which saw a rise in male life expectancy at all four ages. Male life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95. For females, life expectancy at all four ages was lower in 2012 than 2011. At age 65, that was the first fall since 1995 and at age 75 the first fall since 2003. At ages 85 and 95, there have been frequent occasions when life expectancy in a year was lower than in the previous year. Between 2012 and 2013, there were no further falls in life expectancy at any of these ages. Between 2013 and 2014, there was an increase in female life expectancy at all four ages. Female life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and by 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95.  

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

What Is a Firm’s Life Expectancy? Empirical Evidence in the Context of Portuguese Companies

It is a fact that the uncertainty about a firm’s future has to be measured and incorporated into a company’s valuation throughout the explicit analysis period – in the continuing or terminal value within valuation models. One of the concerns that can influence the continuing value of enterprises, which is not explicitly considered in traditional valuation models, is a firm’s average life expectancy. Although the literature has studied the life cycle of a firm, there is still a considerable lack of references on this topic. If we ignore the period during which a company has the ability to produce future cash flows, the valuations can fall into irreversible errors, leading to results markedly different from market values. This paper aims to provide a contribution in this area. Its main objective is to construct a mortality table for non-listed Portuguese enterprises, showing that the use of a terminal value through a mathematical expression of perpetuity of free cash flows is not adequate. We provide the use of an appropriate coefficient to perceive the number of years in which the company will continue to operate until its theoretical extinction. If well addressed regarding valuation models, this issue can be used to reduce or even to eliminate one of the main problems that cause distortions in contemporary enterprise valuation models: the premise of an enterprise’s unlimited existence in time. Besides studying the companies involved in it, from their existence to their demise, our study intends to push knowledge forward by providing a consistent life and mortality expectancy table for each age of the company, presenting models with an explicitly and different survival rate for each year. Moreover, we show that, after reaching a certain age, firms can reinvent their business, acquiring maturity and consequently postponing their mortality through an additional life period.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Health at a glance: Europe 2012.

This second edition of Health at a Glance: Europe presents a set of key indicators of health and health systems in 35 European countries, including the 27 European Union member states, 5 candidate countries and 3 EFTA countries. The selection of indicators is based largely on the European Community Health Indicators (ECHI) shortlist, a list of indicators that has been developed by the European Commission to guide the development and reporting of health statistics. It is complemented by additional indicators on health expenditure and quality of care, building on the OECD expertise in these areas. Contents: Introduction 12 Chapter 1. Health status 15 1.1. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth 1.2. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at age 65 1.3. Mortality from all causes 1.4. Mortality from heart disease and stroke 1.5. Mortality from cancer 1.6. Mortality from transport accidents 1.7. Suicide 1.8. Infant mortality 1.9. Infant health: Low birth weight 1.10. Self-reported health and disability 1.11. Incidence of selected communicable diseases 1.12. HIV/AIDS 1.13. Cancer incidence 1.14. Diabetes prevalence and incidence 1.15. Dementia prevalence 1.16. Asthma and COPD prevalence Chapter 2. Determinants of health 49 2.1. Smoking and alcohol consumption among children 2.2. Overweight and obesity among children 2.3. Fruit and vegetable consumption among children 2.4. Physical activity among children 2.5. Smoking among adults 2.6. Alcohol consumption among adults 2.7. Overweight and obesity among adults 2.8. Fruit and vegetable consumption among adults Chapter 3. Health care resources and activities 67 3.1. Medical doctors 3.2. Consultations with doctors 3.3. Nurses 3.4. Medical technologies: CT scanners and MRI units 3.5. Hospital beds 3.6. Hospital discharges 3.7. Average length of stay in hospitals 3.8. Cardiac procedures (coronary angioplasty) 3.9. Cataract surgeries 3.10. Hip and knee replacement 3.11. Pharmaceutical consumption 3.12. Unmet health care needs Chapter 4. Quality of care 93 Care for chronic conditions 4.1. Avoidable admissions: Respiratory diseases 4.2. Avoidable admissions: Uncontrolled diabetes Acute care 4.3. In-hospital mortality following acute myocardial infarction 4.4. In-hospital mortality following stroke Patient safety 4.5. Procedural or postoperative complications 4.6. Obstetric trauma Cancer care 4.7. Screening, survival and mortality for cervical cancer 4.8. Screening, survival and mortality for breast cancer 4.9. Screening, survival and mortality for colorectal cancer Care for communicable diseases 4.10. Childhood vaccination programmes 4.11. Influenza vaccination for older people Chapter 5. Health expenditure and financing 117 5.1. Coverage for health care 5.2. Health expenditure per capita 5.3. Health expenditure in relation to GDP 5.4. Health expenditure by function. 5.5. Pharmaceutical expenditure 5.6. Financing of health care 5.7. Trade in health services Bibliography 133 Annex A. Additional information on demographic and economic context 143 Most European countries have reduced tobacco consumption via public awareness campaigns, advertising bans and increased taxation. The percentage of adults who smoke daily is below 15% in Sweden and Iceland, from over 30% in 1980. At the other end of the scale, over 30% of adults in Greece smoke daily. Smoking rates continue to be high in Bulgaria, Ireland and Latvia (Figure 2.5.1). Alcohol consumption has also fallen in many European countries. Curbs on advertising, sales restrictions and taxation have all proven to be effective measures. Traditional wine-producing countries, such as France, Italy and Spain, have seen consumption per capita fall substantially since 1980. Alcohol consumption per adult rose significantly in a number of countries, including Cyprus, Finland and Ireland (Figure 2.6.1).This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.