Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from COCOTOW Expedition stations in the intersection of the Siqueiros Transform Fault and the East Pacific Rise

A near-bottom geological and geophysical survey was conducted at the western intersection of the Siqueiros Transform Fault and the East Pacific Rise. Transform-fault shear appears to distort the east flank of the rise crest in an area north of the fracture zone. In ward-facing scarps trend 335° and do not parallel the regional axis of spreading. Small-scale scarps reveal a hummocky bathymetry. The center of spreading is not a central peak but rather a 20-40 m deep, 1 km wide valley superimposed upon an 8 km wide ridge-crest horst. Small-scale topography indicates widespread volcanic flows within the valley. Two 0.75 km wide blocks flank the central valley. Fault scarps are more dominant on the western flank. Their alignment shifts from directions intermediate to parallel to the regional axis of spreading (355°). A median ridge within the fracture zone has a fault-block topography similar to that of the East Pacific Rise to the north. Dominant eastward-facing scarps trending 335° are on the west flank. A central depression, 1 km wide and 30 m deep, separates the dominantly fault-block regime of the west from the smoother topography of the east flank. This ridge originated by uplift due to faulting as well as by volcanism. Detailed mapping was concentrated in a perched basin (Dante's Hole) at the intersection of the rise crest and the fracture zone. Structural features suggest that Dante's Hole is an area subject to extreme shear and tensional drag resulting from transition between non-rigid and rigid crustal behavior. Normal E-W crustal spreading is probably taking place well within the northern confines of the basin. Possible residual spreading of this isolated rise crest coupled with shear drag within the transform fault could explain the structural isolation of Dante's Hole from the remainder of the Siqueiros Transform Fault.

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey on the neotectonic activity of the Padul-Nigüelas Fault Zone (PNFZ), Southern Spain

The Padul-Nigüelas Fault Zone (PNFZ) is situated at the south-western mountain front of the Sierra Nevada (Spain) in an extensive regime and belongs to the internal zone of the Betic Cordilleras. The aim of this study is a collection of new evidence for neotectonic activity of the fault zone with classical geological field work and modern geophysical methods, such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). Among an apparently existing bed rock fault scarp with triangular facets, other evidences, such as deeply incised valleys and faults in the colluvial wedges, are present in the PNFZ. The preliminary results of our recent field work have shown that the synsedimentary faults within the colluvial sediments seem to propagate basinwards and the bed rock fault is only exhumed due to erosion for the studied segment (west of Marchena). We will use further GPR data and geomorphologic indices to gather further evidences of neotectonic activity of the PNFZ.

New morpho-bathymetric and tectono-stratigraphic data on Naples and Salerno gulfs (southern tyrrhenian sea, Italy) derived from bathymetric and seismic data analysis and integrated geological interpretation

New morpho-bathymetric and tectono-stratigraphic data on Naples and Salerno Gulfs, derived from bathymetric and seismic data analysis and integrated geologic interpretation are here presented. The CUBE(Combined Uncertainty Bathymetric Estimator) method has been applied to complex morphologies, such as the Capri continental slope and the related geological structures occurring in the Salerno Gulf.The bathymetric data analysis has been carried out for marine geological maps of the whole Campania continental margin at scales ranging from 1:25.000 to 1:10.000, including focused examples in Naples and Salerno Gulfs, Naples harbour, Capri and Ischia Islands and Salerno Valley. Seismic data analysis has allowed for the correlation of main morpho-structural lineaments recognized at a regional scale through multichannel profiles with morphological features cropping out at the sea bottom, evident from bathymetry.Main fault systems in the area have been represented on a tectonic sketch map, including the master fault located northwards to the Salerno Valley half graben. Some normal faults parallel to the master fault have been interpreted from the slope map derived from bathymetric data. A complex system of antithetic faults bound two morpho-structural highs located 20km to the south of the Capri Island. Some hints of compressional reactivation of normal faults in an extensional setting involving the whole Campania continental margin have been shown from seismic interpretation.

Hydrothermal activity along the slow-spreading Lucky Strike ridge segment (Mid-Atlantic Ridge): Distribution, heatflux, and geological controls

We have reviewed available visual information from the seafloor, and recently acquired microbathymetry for several traverses across the Lucky Strike segment, to evaluate the distribution of hydrothermal activity. We have identified a new on-axis site with diffuse flow, Ewan, and an active vent structure ∼1.2 km from the axis, Capelinhos. These sites are minor relative to the Main field, and our total heatflux estimate for all active sites (200–1200 MW) is only slightly higher than previously published estimates. We also identify fossil sites W of the main Lucky Strike field. A circular feature ∼200 m in diameter located on the flanks of a rifted off-axis central volcano is likely a large and inactive hydrothermal edifice, named Grunnus. We find no indicator of focused hydrothermal activity elsewhere along the segment, suggesting that the enhanced melt supply and the associated melt lenses, required to form central volcanoes, also sustain hydrothermal circulation to form and maintain large and long-lived hydrothermal fields. Hydrothermal discharge to the seafloor occurs along fault traces, suggesting focusing of hydrothermal circulation in the shallow crust along permeable fault zones.

Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps

Base-level maps (or ""isobase maps"", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a ""simplified"" version of the original topographic surface, from which the ""noise"" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Ines lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.

Coexistence of forest and savanna in an Amazonian area from a geological perspective

Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.

Fault current test of a bifilar Bi-2212 bulk coil

A bifilar Bi-2212 bulk coil with parallel shunt resistor was tested under fault current condition using a 3 MVA single-phase transformer in a 220 V-60 Hz line achieving fault current peak of 8 kA. The fault current tests are performed from steady state peak current of 200 A by applying controlled short circuits up to 8 kA varying the time period from one to six cycles. The test results show the function of the shunt resistor providing homogeneous quench behavior of the HTS coil besides its intrinsic stabilizing role. The limiting current ratio achieves a factor 4.2 during 5 cycles without any degradation.

Test of a Modular Fault Current Limiter for 220 V Line Using YBCO Coated Conductor Tapes With Shunt Protection

A modular superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) consisting of 16 elements was constructed and tested in a 220 V line for a fault current between 1 kA to 7.4 kA. The elements are made up of second generation (2G) YBCO-coated conductor tapes with stainless steel reinforcement. For each element four tapes were electrically connected in parallel with effective length of 0.4 m per element, totaling 16 elements connected in series. The evaluation of SFCL performance was carried out under DC and AC tests. The DC test was performed through pulsed current tests and its recovery characteristics under load current were analysed by changing the shunt resistor value. The AC test performed using a 3 MVA/220 V/60 Hz transformer has shown the current limiting ratio achieved a factor higher than 10 during fault of up to five cycles without conductor degradation. The measurement of the voltage for each element during the AC test showed that in this modular SFCL the quench is homogeneous and the transition occurs similarly in all the elements.