Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Current and future shopping conditions in Sälen

Going from having bought the most essential at the small shops close to home, better communications and an increasingly consumption oriented lifestyle has created a change in shopping behavior and has led to phenomenon such as shopping centres and more. These are constantly being built in Sweden: in the cities, outside the cities and more recently even in small cities -small cities as for one reason or another have access to a larger customer base which can have businesses to flourish economically. During the first decade of the 21st century, shopping centres have been established along the Swedish/Norwegian border. Since the Norwegian Krone is much stronger than the Swedish Krona Norwegians save a great deal of money on going to Sweden to shop. During the shopping trips to Sweden, it is mostly alcohol, meat, tobacco and candy that are being bought. However, other products such as clothing, technology, household appliances and more are also being purchased, all to save money on the trip. Together these cross border shoppers spent 11, 6 billion in Sweden during the year of 2010. This gives an average spending of approximately 10 900 SEK per cross border shopper on annual basis. Nordby, Töcksfors and Charlottenberg (small cities located in southwestern Sweden) are places characterized by Norwegian cross border shopping. Together, they generate billions every year and this only seems to increase. These places are relatively small in size but have prominent attributes such as proximity to the Norwegian border. Apart from these resorts and shopping centres, there are few or none similar places near the Norwegian border in the rest of Sweden. However, a place which is geographically well located and has a relatively large Norwegian and Swedish customer base is the ski resort of Sälen in west central of Sweden. Sälen is a village located near the Norwegian border, although fairly sparsely populated. The destination has annually about one million official guest nights, based on the 414 000 visitors who stay an average of about 4, 5 days.  Per visit, these tourists individually spend an average of 862 SEK on shopping at the destination. The expenditure of the mountain tourists together with the Norwegian border shoppers makes it very interesting to explore the opportunities for shopping development in terms of a shopping centre in the region of Sälen.

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Improving Conditions of Latino Children Brightens the Future of America

An introduction to the inaugural issue of the Journal of Applied Research on Children.

Global ASCII grids with daylenth values during summer and winter solstice and ASCII grids representing habitat suitability of Fucus distichus and its niche overlap with temperate macroalgae under present-day and future (2100, 2200) conditions

Abstract has to be submitted by the author!

Experiment: Organic matter exudation by Emiliania huxleyi under simulated future ocean conditions

Emiliania huxleyi (strain B 92/11) was exposed to different nutrient supply, CO2 and temperature conditions in phosphorus controlled chemostats to investigate effects on organic carbon exudation and partitioning between the pools of particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). 14C incubation measurements for primary production (PP) and extracellular release (ER) were performed. Chemical analysis included the amount and composition of high molecular weight (>1 kDa) dissolved combined carbohydrates (HMW-dCCHO), particulate combined carbohydrates (pCCHO) and the carbon content of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP-C). Applied CO2 and temperature conditions were 300, 550 and 900 µatm pCO2 at 14 °C, and additionally 900 µatm pCO2 at 18 °C simulating a greenhouse ocean scenario. Enhanced nutrient stress by reducing the dilution rate (D) from D = 0.3 /d to D = 0.1 /d (D = µ) induced the strongest response in E. huxleyi. At µ = 0.3 /d, PP was significantly higher at elevated CO2 and temperature and DO14C production correlated to PO14C production in all treatments, resulting in similar percentages of extracellular release (PER; (DO14C production/PP) × 100) averaging 3.74 ± 0.94%. At µ = 0.1 /d, PO14C production decreased significantly, while exudation of DO14C increased. Thus, indicating a stronger partitioning from the particulate to the dissolved pool. Maximum PER of 16.3 ± 2.3% were observed at µ = 0.1 /d at elevated CO2 and temperature. While cell densities remained constant within each treatment and throughout the experiment, concentrations of HMW-dCCHO, pCCHO and TEP were generally higher under enhanced nutrient stress. At µ= 0.3 /d, pCCHO concentration increased significantly with elevated CO2 and temperature. At µ = 0.1 /d, the contribution (mol % C) of HMW-dCCHO to DOC was lower at elevated CO2 and temperature while pCCHO and TEP concentrations were higher. This was most pronounced under greenhouse conditions. Our findings suggest a stronger transformation of primary produced DOC into POC by coagulation of exudates under nutrient limitation. Our results further imply that elevated CO2 and temperature will increase exudation by E. huxleyi and may affect organic carbon partitioning in the ocean due to an enhanced transfer of HMW-dCCHO to TEP by aggregation processes.

Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions

Climate change threatens both the accretion and erosion processes that sustain coral reefs. Secondary calcification, bioerosion, and reef dissolution are integral to the structural complexity and long-term persistence of coral reefs, yet these processes have received less research attention than reef accretion by corals. In this study, we use climate scenarios from RCP 8.5 to examine the combined effects of rising ocean acidity and sea surface temperature (SST) on both secondary calcification and dissolution rates of a natural coral rubble community using a flow-through aquarium system. We found that secondary reef calcification and dissolution responded differently to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature. Calcification had a non-linear response to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature: the highest calcification rate occurred slightly above ambient conditions and the lowest calcification rate was in the highest temperature-pCO2 condition. In contrast, dissolution increased linearly with temperature-pCO2 . The rubble community switched from net calcification to net dissolution at +271 µatm pCO2 and 0.75 °C above ambient conditions, suggesting that rubble reefs may shift from net calcification to net dissolution before the end of the century. Our results indicate that (i) dissolution may be more sensitive to climate change than calcification and (ii) that calcification and dissolution have different functional responses to climate stressors; this highlights the need to study the effects of climate stressors on both calcification and dissolution to predict future changes in coral reefs.

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions

Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm PCO2) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm PCO2) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.

Kosowo - przed ostatecznym rozwiazaniem. Proces uregulowania statusu miedzynarodowego = uwarunkowania polityczne i historyczne perspektywy rozwoju sytuacji. Prace OSW 2008. Kosovo before the final decision. Regulation Kosovo's international status - historical and political conditions and prospects for future developments. OSW Study 27/2008

The question of Kosovo's status is currently one of the most important issues in international politics. Since 1999, Kosovo has been an international protectorate which was created in the aftermath of the NATO intervention to stop the brutal pacification of the Albanian insurgency by Serb forces. The province has since de facto become independent of Serbia. Resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council, which established the protectorate, does not preclude any possible outcome as regards its status. Aware that after the crimes of 1999, any attempt to re-integrate Kosovo into Serbia would lead to a massive Albanian uprising, the West has decided that the best solution would be to award Kosovo internationally supervised independence, while at the same time granting very wide autonomy to the Kosovo Serbs. Serbia and Russia rejected the solution proposed by the West, and so Kosovo became an arena of international rivalry for influence in the Western Balkans as well as another element of rivalry, transcending the regional dimension, between Russia and the West. Russia has been using the Kosovo case to build a new model of its relations with the United States and the EU. Since there is a group of countries sceptical about, or even opposed to, Kosovo's independence within the EU, the Kosovo settlement will be a test of the EU's ability to speak with one voice with regard to its external policy.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

United States of Brazil. A geographical sketch, with special reference to economic conditions and prospects of future development,

"Native races of Honduras by J. Hampden Porter": p. 34-54.