Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Amniotic fluid insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 concentration as early indicator of fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVE: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is an important regulator of fetal growth and its bioavailability depends on insulin-like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs). Genes coding for IGF-I and IGFBP3 are polymorphic. We hypothesized that either amniotic fluid protein concentration at the beginning of the second trimester or genotype of one of these two genes could be predictive of abnormal fetal growth. STUDY DESIGN: Amniotic fluid samples (14-18 weeks of pregnancy) from 123 patients with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) fetuses, 39 patients with small for gestational age (SGA) fetuses and 34 patients with large for gestational age (LGA) were analyzed. Protein concentrations were evaluated by ELISA and gene polymorphisms by PCR. RESULTS: Amniotic fluid IGFBP3 concentrations were significantly higher in SGA compared to AGA group (P=0.030), and this was even more significant when adjusted to gestational age at the time of amniocentesis and other covariates (ANCOVA analysis: P=0.009). Genotypic distribution of IGF-I variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) polymorphism was significantly different in SGA compared to AGA group (P=0.029). 19CA/20CA genotype frequency was threefold decreased in SGA compared to AGA group and the risk of SGA occurrence of this genotype was decreased accordingly: OR=0.289, 95%CI=0.1-0.9, P=0.032. Genotype distribution of IGFBP3(A-202C) polymorphism was similar in all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: High IGFBP3 concentrations in amniotic fluid at the beginning of the second trimester are associated with increased risks of SGA while 19CA/20CA genotype at IGF-I VNTR polymorphism is associated with reduced risks of SGA. Neither IGFBP3 concentrations, nor IGF-I/IGFBP3 polymorphisms are associated with modified risks of LGA.

Comparison of the Proportion Method With Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube and E-test for Susceptibility Testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between proportion method with mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) and E-test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Forty clinical isolates were tested. MGIT and E-test with the first line antituberculous drugs correlated with the proportion method. Our results suggested that MGIT and E-test methods can be routinely used instead of the proportion method.

Indicator 11.9 - Data - Prevalence of obesity in reception year pupils

This indicator is part of the London Health Observatory's Health Inequaliies Basket of Indicators.

An ecological field study of the water-rat Nectomys squamipes as a wild reservoir indicator of Schistosoma mansoni transmission in an endemic area

Small mammals are found naturally infected by Schistosoma mansoni, becoming a confounding factor for control programs of schistosomiasis in endemic areas. The aims of this study were: to investigate the infection rates by S. mansoni on the water-rat Nectomys squamipes during four years in endemic areas of Sumidouro, state of Rio de Janeiro, using mark-recapture technique; to compare two diagnostic methods for schistosomiasis; and to evaluate the effects of the chemotherapy in the human infected population on the rodent infection rates. The rodent infection rates of S. mansoni increased when rodent population sizes were lower. Coprology and serology results presented the same trends along time and were correlated. Serology could detect recent infection, including the false negatives in the coprology. The chemotherapy in the humans could not interrupt the rodent infection. Rodents can increase the schistosomiaisis transmission where it already exists, they probably maintain the transmission cycle in the nature and can be considered as biological indicators of the transmission sites of this parasite since they are highly susceptible to infection. The water-rats may present different levels of importance in the transmission dynamics of S. mansoni infection cycle for each area, and can be considered important wild-reservoirs of this human disease.

The development of the Quality Indicator for Rehabilitative Care (QuIRC): a measure of best practice for facilities for people with longer term mental health problems

BACKGROUND: Despite the progress over recent decades in developing community mental health services internationally, many people still receive treatment and care in institutional settings. Those most likely to reside longest in these facilities have the most complex mental health problems and are at most risk of potential abuses of care and exploitation. This study aimed to develop an international, standardised toolkit to assess the quality of care in longer term hospital and community based mental health units, including the degree to which human rights, social inclusion and autonomy are promoted. METHOD: The domains of care included in the toolkit were identified from a systematic literature review, international expert Delphi exercise, and review of care standards in ten European countries. The draft toolkit comprised 154 questions for unit managers. Inter-rater reliability was tested in 202 units across ten countries at different stages of deinstitutionalisation and development of community mental health services. Exploratory factor analysis was used to corroborate the allocation of items to domains. Feedback from those using the toolkit was collected about its usefulness and ease of completion. RESULTS: The toolkit had excellent inter-rater reliability and few items with narrow spread of response. Unit managers found the content highly relevant and were able to complete it in around 90 minutes. Minimal refinement was required and the final version comprised 145 questions assessing seven domains of care. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of qualitative and quantitative evidence directed the development of a robust and comprehensive international quality assessment toolkit for units in highly variable socioeconomic and political contexts

The prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children as an appropriate indicator of its prevalence in the community

School-aged children (6-15 years) from the endemic area of Pernambuco were evaluated both as a target group for and an indicator of schistosomiasis control in the community. Parasitological data were drawn from baseline stool surveys of whole populations that were obtained to diagnose Schistosoma mansoni infection. Nineteen representative localities were selected for assessing the prevalence of schistosomiasis among individuals in the following age groups: 0-5, 6-15, 16-25, 26-40 and 41-80 years. For each locality, the prevalence in each age group was compared to that of the overall population using contingency table analysis. To select a reference group, the operational difficulties of conducting residential surveys were considered. School-aged children may be considered to be the group of choice as the reference group for the overall population for the following reasons: (i) the prevalence of schistosomiasis in this age group had the highest correlation with the prevalence in the overall population (r = 0.967), (ii) this age group is particularly vulnerable to infection and plays an important role in parasite transmission and (iii) school-aged children are the main target of the World Health Organization in terms of helminth control. The Schistosomiasis Control Program should consider school-aged children both as a reference group for assessing the need for intervention at the community level and as a target group for integrated health care actions of the Unified Health System that are focused on high-risk groups.

Peripheral eosinophilia as an indicator of meningitic angiostrongyliasis in exposed individuals

The diagnosis of meningitic angiostrongyliasis (MA) is based on clinical criteria. A lumbar puncture is used as a diagnostic tool, but it is an invasive procedure. The blood eosinophil levels are also assessed and used in the diagnosis of this disease. We enrolled 47 patients with serologically proven MA and 131 controls with intestinal parasite infections. An absolute eosinophil count model was found to be the best marker for MA. An eosinophil count of more than 798 cells led to sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values of 76.6%, 80.2%, 58.1% and 90.5%, respectively. These data support the use of testing for high blood eosinophil levels as a diagnostic tool for MA in individuals that are at risk for this disease.

A combined approach for the assessment of cell viability and cell functionality of human fibrochondrocytes for use in tissue engineering.

Temporo-mandibular joint disc disorders are highly prevalent in adult populations. Autologous chondrocyte implantation is a well-established method for the treatment of several chondral defects. However, very few studies have been carried out using human fibrous chondrocytes from the temporo-mandibular joint (TMJ). One of the main drawbacks associated to chondrocyte cell culture is the possibility that chondrocyte cells kept in culture tend to de-differentiate and to lose cell viability under in in-vitro conditions. In this work, we have isolated human temporo-mandibular joint fibrochondrocytes (TMJF) from human disc and we have used a highly-sensitive technique to determine cell viability, cell proliferation and gene expression of nine consecutive cell passages to determine the most appropriate cell passage for use in tissue engineering and future clinical use. Our results revealed that the most potentially viable and functional cell passages were P5-P6, in which an adequate equilibrium between cell viability and the capability to synthesize all major extracellular matrix components exists. The combined action of pro-apoptotic (TRAF5, PHLDA1) and anti-apoptotic genes (SON, HTT, FAIM2) may explain the differential cell viability levels that we found in this study. These results suggest that TMJF should be used at P5-P6 for cell therapy protocols.

Evidence of an increased incidence of day 3 parasitaemia in Suriname: an indicator of the emerging resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to artemether

The emerging resistance to artemisinin derivatives that has been reported in South-East Asia led us to assess the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine as the first line therapy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum infections in Suriname. This drug assessment was performed according to the recommendations of the World Health Organization in 2011. The decreasing number of malaria cases in Suriname, which are currently limited to migrating populations and gold miners, precludes any conclusions on artemether efficacy because adequate numbers of patients with 28-day follow-up data are difficult to obtain. Therefore, a comparison of day 3 parasitaemia in a 2011 study and in a 2005/2006 study was used to detect the emergence of resistance to artemether. The prevalence of day 3 parasitaemia was assessed in a study in 2011 and was compared to that in a study in 2005/2006. The same protocol was used in both studies and artemether-lumefantrine was the study drug. Of 48 evaluable patients in 2011, 15 (31%) still had parasitaemia on day 3 compared to one (2%) out of 45 evaluable patients in 2005/2006. Overall, 11 evaluable patients in the 2011 study who were followed up until day 28 had negative slides and similar findings were obtained in all 38 evaluable patients in the 2005/2006 study. The significantly increased incidence of parasite persistence on day 3 may be an indication of emerging resistance to artemether.

Die Reichweite von Theorien als Indikator für ihre Umsetzbarkeit in der Praxis [The scope as an indicator of the applicability of nursing theories to practice]

In der Pflegewissenschaft geben der Einsatz von Theorien und der daraus folgende Gewinn immer wieder Anlass zu Diskussionen. Ein Hauptvorwurf ist, dass Pflegetheorien als sehr abstrakt und wenig praxisnah gelten. Jedoch gibt es wenige Indikatoren, um das Abstraktionsniveau von Theorien und die damit verbundene Reichweite zu bestimmen. Im vorliegenden Artikel werden Fragen basierend auf die Definitionen und Grundannahmen von Theorien erstellt. Damit werden anschließend drei ausgesuchte Theorien auf ihr Abstraktionsniveau und Reichweite untersucht. Es wurden 18 Fragen zu den drei Bereichen ,,Zweck der Theorie", ,,Aufgabe der Theorie" und ,,Beschreibung der Theorie" entwickelt. Diese 18 Fragen wurden auf die Theorie der Adaptation von Sister Callista Roy, die Theorie zur Unsicherheit von Merle M. Mishel und die Theorie der Omnipräsenz von Krebs von Maya Shaha angewendet. [The use of nursing theories and their associated benefits remain an area of repeated discussion in nursing. One of the main objections is that nursing theories are abstract and therefore cannot be easily applied to practice. However, only few indicators exist to help identify a theory's level of abstraction or its scope. In this article, questions based on definitions and assumptions of theories have been developed. These questions have then been applied to three selected theories to investigate their level of abstraction and scope. A total of 18 questions divided into three domains were developed. The three categories were: ,,the purpose of the theory", ,,the aim of the theory" and ,,the description of the theory". The theory of Adaptation by Sister Callista Roy, the Theory of Uncertainty by Merle M. Mishel and the Theory of the Omnipresence of Cancer by Maya Shaha were selected to be analysed following the three domains with the 18 questions.]

Indicator taxa of benthic diatom communities: a case study in Mediterranean streams

A key issue in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive is the classification of streams and rivers using biological quality parameters and type-specific reference conditions. Four groups of stream types were defined in NE Spain on the basis of 152 diatom samples by means of detrended correspondence analysis and classification techniques. Diatom analysis was restricted to epilithic taxa, and the sites included gradients ranging from near-natural streams to sites with poor ecological quality. The main gradient shows a clear separation of sites in relation to the degree of human influence: polluted streams (mainly located in the lowlands) differ from streams in mountainous areas and in the Pyrenees. A second gradient is related to physiographical features. Headwater streams can be distinguished by their catchment geology. The type-specific diatom taxa for the stream types studied were determined by using indicator species analysis (IndVal). The type-specific taxa from near-natural streams are coincident with the indicator taxa for high ecological status. Human impact reduced the typological heterogeneity of the diatom community composition. Overall, the diatom communities in NE Spain exhibit a regional distribution pattern that closely corresponds with that observed in river systems elsewhere. Physiographical differences are only evident in undisturbed sites, while nutrient enrichment and other human disturbances may mask the regional differences in the distribution of diatom communities

Characterization of fecal indicator bacteria in sediments cores from the largest freshwater lake of Western Europe (Lake Geneva, Switzerland)

This study characterized the fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), including Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Enteroccocus (ENT), disseminated over time in the Bay of Vidy, which is the most contaminated area of Lake Geneva. Sediments were collected from a site located at similar to 500 m from the present waste water treatment plant (WWTP) outlet pipe, in front of the former WWTP outlet pipe, which was located at only 300 m from the coastal recreational area (before 2001). E. coil and ENT were enumerated in sediment suspension using the membrane filter method. The FIB characterization was performed for human Enterococcus faecalis (E. faecalis) and Enterococcus faecium (E. faecium) and human specific bacteroides by PCR using specific primers and a matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Bacterial cultures revealed that maximum values of 35.2 x 10(8) and 6.6 x 10(6) CFU g(-1) dry sediment for E. coil and ENT, respectively, were found in the sediments deposited following eutrophication of Lake Geneva in the 1970s. whereas the WWTP started operating in 1964. The same tendency was observed for the presence of human fecal pollution: the percentage of PCR amplification with primers ESP-1/ESP-2 for E. faecalis and E. faecium indicated that more than 90% of these bacteria were from human origin. Interestingly, the PCR assays for specific-human bacteroides HF183/HF134 were positive for DNA extracted from all isolated strains of sediment surrounding WWPT outlet pipe discharge. The MALDI-TOF MS confirmed the presence of general E. coli and predominance E. faecium in isolated strains. Our results demonstrated that human fecal bacteria highly increased in the sediments contaminated with WWTP effluent following the eutrophication of Lake Geneva. Additionally, other FIB cultivable strains from animals or adapted environmental strains were detected in the sediment of the bay. The approaches used in this research are valuable to assess the temporal distribution and the source of the human fecal pollution in aquatic environments. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.