Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects

Spatial variability of liquid cloud water content and rainwater content is analysed from three different observational platforms: in situ measurements from research aircraft, land-based remote sensing techniques using radar and lidar, and spaceborne remote sensing from CloudSat. The variance is found to increase with spatial scale, but also depends strongly on the cloud or rain fraction regime, with overcast regions containing less variability than broken cloud fields. This variability is shown to lead to large biases, up to a factor of 4, in both the autoconversion and accretion rates estimated at a model grid scale of ≈40 km by a typical microphysical parametrization using in-cloud mean values. A parametrization for the subgrid variability of liquid cloud and rainwater content is developed, based on the observations, which varies with both the grid scale and cloud or rain fraction, and is applicable for all model grid scales. It is then shown that if this parametrization of the variability is analytically incorporated into the autoconversion and accretion rate calculations, the bias is significantly reduced.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Estimating complex cortical networks via surface recordings-A critical note

We discuss potential caveats when estimating topologies of 3D brain networks from surface recordings. It is virtually impossible to record activity from all single neurons in the brain and one has to rely on techniques that measure average activity at sparsely located (non-invasive) recording sites Effects of this spatial sampling in relation to structural network measures like centrality and assortativity were analyzed using multivariate classifiers A simplified model of 3D brain connectivity incorporating both short- and long-range connections served for testing. To mimic M/EEG recordings we sampled this model via non-overlapping regions and weighted nodes and connections according to their proximity to the recording sites We used various complex network models for reference and tried to classify sampled versions of the ""brain-like"" network as one of these archetypes It was found that sampled networks may substantially deviate in topology from the respective original networks for small sample sizes For experimental studies this may imply that surface recordings can yield network structures that might not agree with its generating 3D network. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Variation in liana abundance and biomass along an elevational gradient in the tropical Atlantic Forest (Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The sugarcane borer Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.) (Lep., Crambidae) and its parasitoids: a synchrony approach to spatial and temporal dynamics

A data set on Diatraea saccharalis and its parasitoids, Cotesia flavipes and tachinid flies, was analysed at five spatial scales-sugarcane mill, region, intermediary, farm and zone-to determine the role of spatial scale in synchrony patterns, and on temporal population variability. To analyse synchrony patterns, only the three highest spatial scales were considered, but for temporal population variability, all spatial scales were adopted. The synchrony-distance relationship revealed complex spatial structures depending on both species and spatial scale. Temporal population variability [SD log(x+1)] levels were highest at the smallest spatial scales although, in the majority of the cases, temporal variability was inversely dependent on sample size. All the species studied, with a few exceptions, presented spatial synchrony independent of spatial scale. The tachinid flies exhibited stronger synchrony dynamics than D. saccharalis and C. flavipes in all spatial scales with the latter displaying the weakest synchrony levels, except when mill spatial scales were compared. In some cases spatial synchrony may at first decay and then increase with distance, but the presence of such patterns can change depending on the spatial scale adopted.

Spatial and temporal population interactions between the parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Tachinidae flies: considerations on the adverse effects of biological control practice

Biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid Cotesia flavipes, the decrease of D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Recently, the native tachinid fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in the success. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal population interactions between C. flavipes and the tachinid flies, and provide a critical analysis of the biological control practice, focusing on the undesirable effects of introductions of exotic natural enemies. To investigate these questions, a large data set comprising information from two sugarcane mills located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Barra and Sao Joao Mills), was analysed. Analysis of the correlation between C. flavipes and tachinid fly population densities through time revealed that such populations were inversely correlated in the Sao Joao Mill and not correlated in the Barra Mill. Logistic regressions were computed to investigate the proportion of sites occupied by the parasitoid species at both mills as a function of time. An increasing trend in the proportion of sites occupied by C. flavipes was observed, with a concomitant decrease of the sites occupied by tachinid flies. This effect was more intense in the Sao Joao Mill. Thus, there is a convincing possibility that constant releases of C. flavipes decreased the tachinid fly populations, resulting in an undesirable effect of biological control practice.

Spatial and temporal patterns and their influence on fish community at Itupararanga Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Functional dependence and caregiver burden in Alzheimer's disease: a controlled trial on the benefits of motor intervention

Background: Cognitive decline has a negative impact on functional activities in Alzheimer's disease. Investigating the effects of motor intervention with the intent to reduce the decline in functionality is an expected target for patients and caregivers. The aim of this study was to verify if a 6-month motor intervention programme promoted functionality in Alzheimer's patients and attenuated caregivers' burden. Methods: The sample comprised 32 community patients with Alzheimer's disease and their 32 respective caregivers. Patients were divided into two groups: 16 participated in the motor intervention programme and 16 controls. Subjects performed 60 minutes of exercises, three times per week during the 6-month period, to improve flexibility, strength, agility and balance. Caregivers followed the procedures with their patients during this period. Functionality was evaluated by the Berg Functional Balance Scale and the Functional Independence Measure. Caregivers completed the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Caregiver Distress Scale and the Zarit Carer Burden Scale. Two-way ANOVA was used to verify the interaction between time (pre- and post-intervention) and the motor intervention program. Results: While patients in the motor programme preserved their functionality, as assessed by the Functional Independence Measure, the controls suffered a relative decline (motor intervention group: from 109.6 to 108.4 vs controls: from 99.5 to 71.6; P= 0.01). Patients from motor intervention also had better scores than the controls on functional balance assessed by Berg scale (F: 22.2; P= 0.001). As assessed by the Neuropsychiatric Inventory and Zarit scale, burden was reduced among caregivers whose patients participated in the motor intervention programme compared with caregivers whose patients did not participate in this programme (Neuropsychiatric Inventory, caregiver's part: F: 9.37; P= 0.01; Zarit: F: 11.28; P= 0.01). Conclusion: Patients from the motor intervention group showed reduced functional decline compared to the controls, and there was an associated decrease in caregivers' burden.

Biodiversity, Species Interactions and Ecological Networks in a Fragmented World

Biodiversity is organised into complex ecological networks of interacting species in local ecosystems, but our knowledge about the effects of habitat fragmentation on such systems remains limited. We consider the effects of this key driver of both local and global change on both mutualistic and antagonistic systems at different levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales.There is a complex interplay of patterns and processes related to the variation and influence of spatial, temporal and biotic drivers in ecological networks. Species traits (e.g. body size, dispersal ability) play an important role in determining how networks respond to fragment size and isolation, edge shape and permeability, and the quality of the surrounding landscape matrix. Furthermore, the perception of spatial scale (e.g. environmental grain) and temporal effects (time lags, extinction debts) can differ markedly among species, network modules and trophic levels, highlighting the need to develop a more integrated perspective that considers not just nodes, but the structural role and strength of species interactions (e.g. as hubs, spatial couplers and determinants of connectance, nestedness and modularity) in response to habitat fragmentation.Many challenges remain for improving our understanding: the likely importance of specialisation, functional redundancy and trait matching has been largely overlooked. The potentially critical effects of apex consumers, abundant species and supergeneralists on network changes and evolutionary dynamics also need to be addressed in future research. Ultimately, spatial and ecological networks need to be combined to explore the effects of dispersal, colonisation, extinction and habitat fragmentation on network structure and coevolutionary dynamics. Finally, we need to embed network approaches more explicitly within applied ecology in general, because they offer great potential for improving on the current species-based or habitat-centric approaches to our management and conservation of biodiversity in the face of environmental change.

Spatial pattern of parasitism in Diatraea saccharalis Fab. (Lep., Crambidae) populations at two different spatial scales in sugarcane fields in Brazil

The biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid, Cotesia flavipes, the decrease in D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Native Tachinidae fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in the success. Quantitative data confirming the actual contribution of these agents to the control of D. saccharalis are, however, rather scant. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spatial pattern of parasitism of these parasitoids in D. saccharalis populations at two large spatial scales (fields and zones). To investigate this subject, a large data set comprising information collected from a sugarcane mill located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (São João sugarcane mill) was analysed. When regressions between the proportion parasitism against host density were computed, the percentage of significant regressions with either a positive or a negative slope was very small at both spatial scales for both parasitoid species. Regressing the densities of tachinid-parasitized hosts against host densities per field showed that these parasitoids presented a 'moderate aggregative' response to host densities, as 53.33% of the regressions were positively significant. Cotesia flavipes was 'weakly aggregated' on host densities at the field level, because only 33.33% of the regressions were positively significant. At the zone level, neither aggregative nor spatial proportion parasitism responses were evident for either parasitoid species due to the small percentage of significant regressions computed.

Equilíbrio dinâmico em idosos com doença de Parkinson

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Temporal and Spatial Scaling of the Genetic Structure of a Vector-Borne Plant Pathogen

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Determining spatial and temporal scales for management: lessons from whaling

Selection of the appropriate management unit is critical to the conservation of animal populations. Defining such units depends upon knowledge of population structure and upon the timescale being considered. Here, we examine the trajectory of eleven subpopulations of five species of baleen whales to investigate temporal and spatial scales in management. These subpopulations were all extirpated by commercial whaling, and no recovery or repopulation has occurred since. In these cases, time elapsed since commercial extinction ranges from four decades to almost four centuries. We propose that these subpopulations did not recover either because cultural memory of the habitat has been lost, because widespread whaling among adjacent stocks eliminated these as sources for repopulation, and/or because segregation following exploitation produced the abandonment of certain areas. Spatial scales associated with the extirpated subpopulations are frequently smaller than those typically employed in management. Overall, the evidence indicates that: (1) the time frame for management should be at most decadal in scope (i.e., <100 yr) and based on both genetic and nongenetic evidence of population substructure, and (2) at least some stocks should be defined on a smaller spatial scale than they currently are.

Variation in liana abundance and biomass along an elevational gradient in the tropical Atlantic Forest (Brazil)

Lianas play a key role in forest structure, species diversity, as well as functional aspects of tropical forests. Although the study of lianas in the tropics has increased dramatically in recent years, basic information on liana communities for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest is still scarce. To understand general patterns of liana abundance and biomass along an elevational gradient (0-1,100 m asl) of coastal Atlantic Forest, we carried out a standard census for lianas a parts per thousand yen1 cm in five 1-ha plots distributed across different forest sites. On average, we found a twofold variation in liana abundance and biomass between lowland and other forest types. Large lianas (a parts per thousand yen10 cm) accounted for 26-35% of total liana biomass at lower elevations, but they were not recorded in montane forests. Although the abundance of lianas displayed strong spatial structure at short distances, the present local forest structure played a minor role structuring liana communities at the scale of 0.01 ha. Compared to similar moist and wet Neotropical forests, lianas are slightly less abundant in the Atlantic Forest, but the total biomass is similar. Our study highlights two important points: (1) despite some studies have shown the importance of small-scale canopy disturbance and support availability, the spatial scale of the relationships between lianas and forest structure can vary greatly among tropical forests; (2) our results add to the evidence that past canopy disturbance levels and minimum temperature variation exert influence on the structure of liana communities in tropical moist forests, particularly along short and steep elevational gradients.